The state of the economy at the street level

[qldfrog]

Fully agree, but beware of not mistaking blowing the corporatocracy with voting labor or green
Like saying voting Hilary was voting for the people in the US
Received yesterday another water rate from uniwater SEQld
Increase only of fixed fees
A telling sign: people can not even reduce consumption to lessen the pain, they probably already have...
same as electricity
And i have not used a drop of water or used the sewerage since owning the building but i pay 270 a quarter for the privilege of having some pipes in the vicinity..
This is australia 2019
We need a reset and it will happen
The further the delay the greater the pain
Visit Chile or Argentina for a picture of our future
During that time, our kids go in strike against CO2..talk about air heads...

 

[fedexpress]

But I can't see this improving any time soon... not while some people still say Aussie wages are too high or workers are too greedy.

Neither can I. If wages are growing, how will houses continue going up? As a consumer led economy with immigration, resources, construction and consumption being the main drivers alongside, what chance do we have of a growing economy if 3/4 drivers of growth and slowing. Wage stagnation means we will continue spending less due to the wealth effect.

A recent report by RBA suggested that the ASIC increase difficulty of getting home loans so that the property prices won't increase and cause systemic risk. So the short increase in house prices will only fall back to reality.

I see no end to this in the short/mid term at least.

 

[PZ99]

Confidence has gone down the swanny

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...ns-and-confidence-survey-august-2019/11495226

 

[Smurf1976]

Most household works I can do myself but I've had quotes on a couple of things over the past week and something I've noticed is that without exception, all suppliers needed to be prodded a bit to quote on something other than the cheapest possible way of doing it. Even when I've stated a specific brand name product or method, they've looked a bit worried when telling me the price and have been quick to mention that they can also offer a cheaper option.

So I assume that most customers are looking only at the cheapest possible way of doing things at the moment even if that's not a good way of doing it.

Also very easy to get people at the moment. Got a quote for something yesterday and work should be finished by tomorrow afternoon.

That hasn't been my experience in the past so it's a change definitely.

 

[SirRumpole]

Confidence has gone down the swanny

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...ns-and-confidence-survey-august-2019/11495226

Better be careful, we may be accused of talking down the economy.

 

[sptrawler]

Most household works I can do myself but I've had quotes on a couple of things over the past week and something I've noticed is that without exception, all suppliers needed to be prodded a bit to quote on something other than the cheapest possible way of doing it. Even when I've stated a specific brand name product or method, they've looked a bit worried when telling me the price and have been quick to mention that they can also offer a cheaper option.

So I assume that most customers are looking only at the cheapest possible way of doing things at the moment even if that's not a good way of doing it.

Also very easy to get people at the moment. Got a quote for something yesterday and work should be finished by tomorrow afternoon.

That hasn't been my experience in the past so it's a change definitely.

In my opinion it is a great time for doing anything, to me it is always darkest before the dawn, time will tell.

 

[basilio]

I have been thinking about the situation with hundreds of apartment buildings having problems with i inflammable cladding and or/dangerous constructions. We already know of Opal and others as well as the ones that went up like a Roman Candle. I was wondering how the banks were treating these properties on their books.

Today I had a casual conversation with a person in the building industry and discovered that the banks are not putting an impairment on the stock of units they have loaned money against. Apparently it is just too much and too big to fall. The State Government had to come in with the $600m support fun to repair teh damage becasue no one wanted to admit liability.

Also turns out the flammable cladding issue is far worse than initially believed. Interesting times in banking and building folks.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2019/09/the-australian-recession-nobody-talks-about/
Ok another article with some interesting figure especially the per capital details showing how we are in a terrible economic state, hidden by massive migration figures
We have now been going backward for a while

 

[PZ99]

Crickey, almost looks like a head and shoulders chart !

We're dooooomed

 

[moXJO]

Everyone is sitting and waiting that I'm talking to. The expectation is a lot more down. We are holding up (which surprised) me. But prices are coming down and I'm figuring that the slide will gather steam on higher oil prices.

Retail seems like its up the creek. There was a slight bump locally , but thats dried up. People are being a lot more cautious with their money.

 

[Klogg]

Everyone is sitting and waiting that I'm talking to. The expectation is a lot more down. We are holding up (which surprised) me. But prices are coming down and I'm figuring that the slide will gather steam on higher oil prices.

Retail seems like its up the creek. There was a slight bump locally , but thats dried up. People are being a lot more cautious with their money.

Not sure about a retail recession.

Premier just reported today. No recession there
Accent group also reported well. I could find a few others.

 

[moXJO]

Not sure about a retail recession.

Premier just reported today. No recession there
Accent group also reported well. I could find a few others.

Possibly a local phenomenon. Shopping centers are going bust her. Supermarkets were going gang busters today.
I was talking to some shop keepers in Canberra when I was down there and they were doing it tough.
Most trade supplies seem to be doing ok.
Its a mixed bag, but it seems like people are doing it tougher

 

[sptrawler]

If you read the papers, they don't seem to know how to present the economy, Morrison is a guest of Trumps because he has no friends. China is going bust, but we should be friends with them because we need them, also we should be wary of them as they are infiltrating us and are being nasty to Hong Kong, but we need to keep selling our land and properties to them.
Our welfare system is unaffordable, but we should be giving more, but we can't because we have to borrow money to fund it, so we need to have a budget surplus to make it affordable, but we should be spending more money instead of worrying about a budget surplus, because we will have a recession if we don't.
What I don't understand, is they don't seem to know why people aren't spending their money.
Maybe if the press shut the F%$k up, people would relax and spend their money.

 

[So_Cynical]

Record low interest rates are not helping here and have not helped elsewhere (Japan Europe) so the only way to get the global economy moving
without propping up the current asset bubbles is infrastructure spending, governments around the world have to issue bonds to raise money
and spend that money on building things, new bond issues will give investors somewhere to get a reasonable (3%) yield.

Building things in Aust like the Melb/Syd fast train, replacing MIA canals with pipes and finishing the NBN with fibre, big projects to drive demand.

 

[SirRumpole]

Record low interest rates are not helping here and have not helped elsewhere (Japan Europe) so the only way to get the global economy moving
without propping up the current asset bubbles is infrastructure spending, governments around the world have to issue bonds to raise money
and spend that money on building things, new bond issues will give investors somewhere to get a reasonable (3%) yield.

Building things in Aust like the Melb/Syd fast train, replacing MIA canals with pipes and finishing the NBN with fibre, big projects to drive demand.

Yep, the government might as well make use of super low interest rates to borrow for infrastructure investment.

More hydro storages and gas pipelines, plus increasing our oil refining capabilities would seem good sense.

 

[Smurf1976]

More hydro storages and gas pipelines, plus increasing our oil refining capabilities would seem good sense.

Things which come to mind include:

Energy as a whole (electricity, gas, liquid fuels).

Transport particularly in and between the big cities although there are other issues also.

Water always seems to be an issue.

A big one is housing. There’s a market for apartments certainly but only to a point. It seems extremely obvious that the market wants more houses on land given that pretty much any house sells even if it’s a dump whereas apartments tend to be the second choice option for many. If we’re going to keep growing the population of the big cities then it’s time to stop denying the inevitable and get on with large scale land development and associated railways and highways plus other infrastructure. Or alternatively stop cramming people into Sydney and Melbourne and make a major push to populate somewhere else.

Things relating to adapting to climate change. Some amount of change seems inevitable so no point denying it.

Sort the NBN one out.

The housing one would be controversial, there’s people making a lot of money out of the present situation of artificial land shortages. Reality though is talk to a few real estate agents and they’ll tell you the same story - there’s more demand for houses with land than there are houses to buy and there’s plenty living in an apartment only because it was cheaper, it’s not what they actually want.

Apart from those profiting from the current situation, for the rest fixing the housing mess would be a vote winner surely. It’s not just the first home buyers and upgraders but in most cases their parents and grandparents can see the problem too.

 

[SirRumpole]

Things which come to mind include:

Energy as a whole (electricity, gas, liquid fuels).

Transport particularly in and between the big cities although there are other issues also.

Water always seems to be an issue.

A big one is housing. There’s a market for apartments certainly but only to a point. It seems extremely obvious that the market wants more houses on land given that pretty much any house sells even if it’s a dump whereas apartments tend to be the second choice option for many. If we’re going to keep growing the population of the big cities then it’s time to stop denying the inevitable and get on with large scale land development and associated railways and highways plus other infrastructure. Or alternatively stop cramming people into Sydney and Melbourne and make a major push to populate somewhere else.

Things relating to adapting to climate change. Some amount of change seems inevitable so no point denying it.

Sort the NBN one out.

The housing one would be controversial, there’s people making a lot of money out of the present situation of artificial land shortages. Reality though is talk to a few real estate agents and they’ll tell you the same story - there’s more demand for houses with land than there are houses to buy and there’s plenty living in an apartment only because it was cheaper, it’s not what they actually want.

Apart from those profiting from the current situation, for the rest fixing the housing mess would be a vote winner surely. It’s not just the first home buyers and upgraders but in most cases their parents and grandparents can see the problem too.

Housing estates are spreading like slime through bushland, and apartments seem the only way of stopping more destruction of natural areas.

Instead of a "money solves everything" approach, maybe someone should start seriously thinking of population policy. How many can we take , why should we take them, and can we afford to , in terms of supplying essentials like water , power and transport to an ever increasing population.

 

[Smurf1976]

Housing estates are spreading like slime through bushland, and apartments seem the only way of stopping more destruction of natural areas.

Instead of a "money solves everything" approach, maybe someone should start seriously thinking of population policy.

I’ve long been an advocate for a sensible population policy but it falls on intentionally blocked ears.

If however the masses insist that a growing population doesn’t lead to reducing the way they live, well then that’ll force government to face the unsustainability of the whole situation.

I’m well aware that my suggestion would have the effect of bringing rather a lot of issues, economic and environmental, to a head and that’s the intent. It would ultimately force a shift in thinking which at present seems stuck, having not shifted since the late 1980’s.

Our leaders are still living in a world where Sydney had 3 million people, environmental concerns were something that might matter sometime in the future and interest rates were high to the point that debt reduction was an imperative no matter what the consequences. Continuing with that mindset, unchanged in 30 years, brings us to where we are today physically, economically and environmentally with what amounts to a situation comparable to the frog slowly boiling to death as the pot warms.

So my thinking basically says draw a line in the sand, don’t accept anything going backwards, and that’ll force a much broader rethink of the entire situation.

Or in other words I propse to replace the can with a solid concrete block in order to ensure that anyone who tries kicking it down the road will only try it once. Render the ponzi scheme impractical in an obvious manner and it’ll force a new direction.

 

[SirRumpole]

So my thinking basically says draw a line in the sand, don’t accept anything going backwards, and that’ll force a much broader rethink of the entire situation.

Or in other words I propse to replace the can with a solid concrete block in order to ensure that anyone who tries kicking it down the road will only try it once.

Well, it's a risk. Large scale land development if it goes ahead will certainly stuff things up for good, but if it's seriously proposed then there will be a big kickback from the environmentalists (including your average citizen who wants to maintain a reasonable quality of life).

Trouble is, no one will seriously propose large scale land development as they don't want the kickbacks, it will all be done on the quiet, slice by slice until the effect is achieved and the frog is well and truly boiled.

So how do you propose getting the developers and their tame politicians to actually declare their real objectives ?

 

[Smurf1976]

I perhaps haven't explained it very well but what I'm really thinking is that we have a situation where nominal GDP is going up but the Australian economy doesn't seem to be really working for ordinary Australians.

Sure, GDP is higher but if we look at the ability of ordinary people to afford things like a house with land, fuel / power, using roads and so on well then we're going backward.

If you look at someone doing what I'll call an "ordinary" job, let's say someone who works as a painter or in office administration, then it used to be a given that of course they could afford a house in the suburbs, they could water the garden, they could heat the place in winter and they could drive their car no worries. Now they can't afford a house, are told to not use much water even if they do have a house, are struggling to afford heating and pay a toll to use various roads.

It seems to me that as population goes up, we're not increasing the supply of land, power / gas, water, roads etc to keep up with that meaning less per person.

Time to call an end to the nonsense in my view. Either build the required infrastructure or if it's not reasonable to do that for either practical reasons or due to environmental concerns etc then call a halt to the population ponzi without delay. Refocus the economy so that it works for ordinary Australians rather than being obsessed with making some magic figure go up.

My thinking of building what's required is that it does two things. To the extent it can be built, it boosts the economy in the present. To the extent objections are raised and it's not practical to build it then it forces acceptance that we're on the wrong track with reliance on population growth and that an alternative approach is required.

In the context of the thread it's relevant in so far as we seem to have more in total but less per person. GDP is going up but people feel worse off or at least that their situation isn't improving.