The state of the economy at the street level

[qldfrog]

Gdp is growing less than population so we are and have been for nearly a decade getting poorer every year

 

[So_Cynical]

Gdp is growing less than population so we are and have been for nearly a decade getting poorer every year

Capital in the Twenty-First Century is a very interesting read/listen, the book points out that low growth/inflation/GDP is actually normal, the high growth
since 1950 was as a result of the destruction of capital by both world wars, the exceptional growth of the tiger economy's was a normal catch up, the end
of empire for the developed economy's normal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-First_Century

Consider that a couple of years has passed and interest rates are above 3% again, inflation 2%, GDP growth 1% = thats actually pretty good, sustainable.

 

[qldfrog]

I fully agree that the gdp growth is a one off move from agricultural to city livestyle, technical and mostly demographic conditions
China showing all of these in a generation
Australia is trying to keep these figures by massive immigration...
Not a good future ahead
I will try to find that book.thanks for the lead @So_Cynical

 

[sptrawler]

The other problem these days, is that stuff lasts longer, materials are better electronics are better, just about everything lasts untill you are fed up with it eg car, tv etc.
Therefore a lot of people see no reason to buy something new, this brings about a feeling of going nowhere and makes people feel like they are missing out.
The norm a few years ago was upgrade the car, computer, t.v, mobile phone etc, which gave people a sugar hit. These days people dont have to do it so they are left feeling wanting.
Just my opinion

 

[So_Cynical]

I fully agree that the gdp growth is a one off move from agricultural to city livestyle, technical and mostly demographic conditions
China showing all of these in a generation
Australia is trying to keep these figures by massive immigration...
Not a good future ahead
I will try to find that book.thanks for the lead @So_Cynical

Japan is the perfect example of a mature modern economy without any immigration, low growth across the board and thats ok, normal.

 

[qldfrog]

And i know where i would prefer to live between China with growth or Japan without
Europe could have been Japan II.
They decided to opt for immigration
Actually the voters and people did not , the powers decided for them
As a result, culture destruction, welfare state, identity lost, crime and poverty
And this is the model Australia is taking, slightly better immigration but still...
And BTW, i am a migrant here....

 

[Jack Aubrey]

I think the immigration/population equation for Australia is more complex. While I agree that we are in a "per capita recession", cutting immigration in the short-term will only exacerbate that trend as immigrants (and population growth generally) are a key factor in demand for housing and consumer goods which keep our economy from travelling boom-bust cycle of export commodities. The real failure has been with politicians failing to plan, or even keep up with, investment in infrastructure, TAFE, research, etc (That's not a party political comment BTW, they have all failed dismally). Good infrastructure and land-use planning are the real keys to both environmental protection and productivity IMO.

Contrary to popular (populist?) belief, most immigrants, including refugees, to Australia become self-supporting very quickly despite clear disadvantages in many job markets. Personally, I think our economy is still missing opportunities and potential productivity boosts by not being more aggressive about skilled migration, especially wrt to young, educated people from countries suffering from economic and political strife. I don't know what the stats say, but there are also many "good news" stories around about refugee communities revitalising country towns and regional cities and I see a lot of that happening on my "grey nomad" travels. (spend time in Ballarat, Armidale or Coffs Harbour and see the energy!)

Disclosure: I am not an immigrant, at least not for three generations.

 

[SirRumpole]

Well, I don't think it's a case of "good" immigrants or "bad" immigrants the point is the total number.

Any extra population adds to demand as you say, but they also increase the supply of labour which keeps wages stagnant and reduces spending capacity.

Considering a lot of the work around these days is "insecure", the gig economy as they say, this insecurity does not provide the conditions for people to invest in housing or generally spend in the economy, plus the increased use of automation in many industries reduces the demand for labour, further reducing wages and conditions, so I think we are in a period of diminishing returns as far as population growth goes.

As for importing skilled labour, that just points to the failure of our education system imv. Why can't we educate and train our own people as we used to without dependence on imports ?

 

[SirRumpole]

Another indication of a flagging economy and the pressure to reduce costs and perhaps use inferior materials.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09...mpanies-liquidated-in-record-numbers/11512002

 

[qldfrog]

I am a migrant but please

Contrary to popular (populist?) belief, most immigrants, including refugees, to Australia become self-supporting very quickly despite clear disadvantages in many job markets.

This is so far from truth, from memory, last figure were around 95% of refugees were still on welfare 3 years after arrival
Feel free to check
Overwhelmingly, refugees are a burden on our society
You can accept it for compassion, in the hope of a better integration of their children etc etc but economics on the short term is bad, migrants on the other end will work as they will not qualify to welfare for a while, and are of a more industrious nature as a consequence of the migration process
The question is do we need more people, i am sure we do not even if we had more water and resources..and we do not
Let's be a role model in population growth first instead of trying to respond to co2 challenges
And yes gdp will slow but i felt better in australia 20y ago than now, as a society and lifestyle

 

[basilio]

I am a migrant but please

This is so far from truth, from memory, last figure were around 95% of refugees were still on welfare 3 years after arrival
Feel free to check
Overwhelmingly, refugees are a burden on our society

Really ? Not sure the facts bear out that observation
1) The entire post WW immigration boom was based on the displaced refugees from war torn Europe. They built Australia from the 50's to the 80's

2) The Vietnamese refugees that came as boat people in the 80's have been one of hardest working and best integrated communities in Australia after the post war refugee boom

3) How did you find the figure of 95% of refugees were still on welfare after 3 years. The only way I could understand that statement is if they were based on people locked in centres .

 

[basilio]

Saw an interesting/disturbing story on the rise of what looks like a very ambitious investment opportunity.

If you have a spare $500,000 and want to earn 6.25% .......

Concern over ad blitz for high-end investment fund buying into island resort
Exclusive: mass market ads for Mayfair 101, a fund open to ‘sophisticated investors only’, have consumer advocates worried

... Meanwhile, an offer document obtained by the Guardian shows Mayfair 101 is directly targeting investors who are frustrated with the low returns offered by bank term deposits by offering 6.45% a year on investments made in September.

The document asks potential customers if they are “tired of term deposits” and boasts that the product “is a smart and effective way of earning competitive rates of return whilst official interest rates are at record-lows”.

Interestingly enough the first big winner is Peter Bond from Linc Energy. Mayfair paid him $31.5m for his Dunk Island property which cost hm $7.5m
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...end-investment-fund-buying-into-island-resort

 

[qldfrog]

Really ? Not sure the facts bear out that observation
1) The entire post WW immigration boom was based on the displaced refugees from war torn Europe. They built Australia from the 50's to the 80's

2) The Vietnamese refugees that came as boat people in the 80's have been one of hardest working and best integrated communities in Australia after the post war refugee boom

3) How did you find the figure of 95% of refugees were still on welfare after 3 years. The only way I could understand that statement is if they were based on people locked in centres .

Do your own searches instead ..i i wi look for the info when i have some times
Point one and 2, fully agree, you are just 40y too late when applying it to today's world

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/...s/news-story/74891f8b815bb1191eff519e7ba95a28
I try to find data from thebleeding heart sites, but not easy
figures hides the same fact among immigrants vs refugees etc
we are at 30pc employment max after 3y
Anyway, i am sure we can bring in a Karen, Chinese or Vietnamese dissident and they will be working in no time, as for your Syrian jihadist or south south humanitarian refugee..good luck
But i am just an old prejudiced white male so who cares about facts

 

[qldfrog]

Try to find the figure too
Refugees..so humanitarian refugees, not immigrants on welfare after 3 y
Interested in being proven wrong
And having employment does not mean out of welfare

 

[Jack Aubrey]

Not biting on the refugees and welfare issue (no data) but, back on topic, my wife showed me a sales catalogue from one of her preferred clothing outlets - a bricks and mortar major - yesterday with markdowns as high as 80%. She noted that she had never seen this mob discount so aggressively. Most of the lines discounted were new to the market this year. I wonder whether this means retailers are getting edgy about cashflow as the prices were totally ridiculous for a chain with large overheads?

 

[qldfrog]

Make your own mind
Coming from a partisan website trying to contradict a similar claim
https://theconversation.com/factche...welfare-with-an-unemployment-rate-of-97-54395
It is quasi impossible to find figures, there are pages and pages of pro no border sites returned by Google and i can not find back the report i read a year or so ago on this subject
But i believe that link says it all in its clumsy denial
Over for me, i have enough of a battle with the co2 is evil clan

 

[SirRumpole]

Not biting on the refugees and welfare issue (no data) but, back on topic, my wife showed me a sales catalogue from one of her preferred clothing outlets - a bricks and mortar major - yesterday with markdowns as high as 80%. She noted that she had never seen this mob discount so aggressively. Most of the lines discounted were new to the market this year. I wonder whether this means retailers are getting edgy about cashflow as the prices were totally ridiculous for a chain with large overheads?

Retail stores are being monstered by online sellers. They are probably trying to clear some old stock at bargain prices. When you consider all the big stores that have collapsed over time , been taken over or moved into online retailing, I certainly would not consider it a secure job working in what is left.

 

[Smurf1976]

my wife showed me a sales catalogue from one of her preferred clothing outlets - a bricks and mortar major - yesterday with markdowns as high as 80%.

Retail stores are being monstered by online sellers.

I don't know a great deal about ladies fashion but looking at retailers in general I think part of the problem is that they've essentially become a "greatest hits" version replicated numerous times over.

By that I'm referring to music in the pre-online days. Go and buy all 10 albums that the band produced if you're a serious fan or if they were reasonably popular then someone will have produced a "greatest hits" album by now. Nothing wrong with buying the GH if that's all you want of course.

With shops it seems that there's been a huge growth in the number of physical shops during the period 1980 - 2010 to the point that even relatively small cities tend to have multiple shopping precincts versus historically when it was all based in the CBD apart from a few suburban shops here and there.

Thing is though that when you look in detail what you find isn't some vast number of shops but actually it's very few shops simply replicated over and over, sometimes with more than one shopfront in the same street, mall or shopping center. Further, the shops are much the same with everywhere from Perth to Brisbane to Hobart having the same national chains dominating.

That seems to have created a situation where if you want to buy something absolutely mainstream then there's numerous places to buy it from but nowhere at all that can sell you anything even slightly less common. Back to my analogy, it's like having a dozen Greatest Hits CD's, all exactly the same, but not having even one of the band's albums. In reality you've only got one CD so far as content is concerned, the rest just fills up space.

The only one I can think of which has gone the other way, and it seems to have worked pretty well for them, is Bunnings. They do tend to have the full range or at least a decent range of something not just the most common one.

That lack of product choice from most retailers effectively forces online not simply to save money or for convenience but as the only option. There's no point complaining that consumers aren't buying what the shops aren't selling.

 

[SirRumpole]

Rate cut after rate cut has done nothing to stimulate the economy.

People should now be asking Morrison about his promises of a "strong economy" and what they are doing about it.

He talked the talk at the last election, now he has to walk the walk.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10...ip-lowe-further-rate-cuts-inevitable/11565464