The state of the economy at the street level

[SirRumpole]

The correlation between lipstick sales and the state of the economy.

The ominous reason lipstick sales are up, according to one former department store boss

There are renewed warnings of dark clouds hanging over the Australian economy. And the former boss of an upmarket department store says those warnings have been reinforced by the increase in sales of lipstick.

www.abc.net.au

 

[mullokintyre]

The correlation between lipstick sales and the state of the economy.

The ominous reason lipstick sales are up, according to one former department store boss

There are renewed warnings of dark clouds hanging over the Australian economy. And the former boss of an upmarket department store says those warnings have been reinforced by the increase in sales of lipstick.

www.abc.net.au

Is it because there are so many people trying to put lipstick on a Pig??
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

The correlation between lipstick sales and the state of the economy.

The ominous reason lipstick sales are up, according to one former department store boss

There are renewed warnings of dark clouds hanging over the Australian economy. And the former boss of an upmarket department store says those warnings have been reinforced by the increase in sales of lipstick.

www.abc.net.au

hopefully that article will get the ABC cancelled ( maybe even shut down )

but then the Government NEEDS the ABC to spew out its propaganda and indoctrination

 

[divs4ever]

Is it because there are so many people trying to put lipstick on a Pig??
Mick

trying for more income , most likely

but of course it depends on who is buying .. if it is the RBA , most likely you are correct

 

[wayneL]

Hence the importation of "qualified" tradies from overseas.
It's not just the trades that are missing in action. I was sitting behind a B-double yesterday and plastered across the back was "a spot available for you to drive this truck". Not an uncommon sight.

Yep. Without qualified Pommy farriers coming over, it would be an absolute diaster.

 

[Knobby22]

No idea where to post this , so....
Finance guy Roger Montgomery is back for 2024 with last night's ABC Radio podcast now available . ( 50 minutes ) Interesting thoughts on where he thinks the share market and Bitcoin ETF's are headed this year and callers ( those baby boomers , again ! ) telling us where they're actually spending all their loot . ...( What recession ? )

Yea, I heard that one. Was pretty interesting.

 

[divs4ever]

No idea where to post this , so....
Finance guy Roger Montgomery is back for 2024 with last night's ABC Radio podcast now available . ( 50 minutes ) Interesting thoughts on where he thinks the share market and Bitcoin ETF's are headed this year and callers ( those baby boomers , again ! ) telling us where they're actually spending all their loot . ...( What recession ? )

actually that might be the strongest pointer to a recession/depression , using the devaluing cash reserves while they still have spending power and aren't frozen in a bank/term deposit

 

[Knobby22]

actually that might be the strongest pointer to a recession/depression , using the devaluing cash reserves while they still have spending power and aren't frozen in a bank/term deposit

I think it's just that after Covid causing a reassessment and having a reasonable amount of interest coming in, they are no longer hesitant to spend and have a good time. Makes it hard for interest rates to work.

Montgomery was a little bullish for this year and normally he is the other way.

I was with some smart guys recently and they reckon in a couple of years inflation will rise again and interest rates are really going to hurt. Then as you say, a real recession/depression.

 

[farmerge]

Yep. Without qualified Pommy farriers coming over, it would be an absolute diaster.

Didn't realise that your industry was short handed, but I guess it is pretty well wide spread everywhere. Too many lazy bar*tards not wanting to work.

 

[wayneL]

Didn't realise that your industry was short handed, but I guess it is pretty well wide spread everywhere. Too many lazy bar*tards not wanting to work.

I get far more new enquiry than I can reasonably answer. People *desperate for something more than unqualified cowboy... sometimes, desperate for somebody who will just answer their enquiry whether qualified or not.

Of the problem is that people with one animal do not realize what it costs to run this business and will not pay a reasonable recompense.

Here is a thought experiment:

1/ What would some other tradesman charge to drive to a job, set up equipment to spend about an hour doing the actual job, and pack up, about an hour and 20 minutes, depending?

2/ some owners do not want or require their horses to be shod, above scenario but the job might only take 15 minutes, pudding driving to, setting up etc. (Not forgetting all the BS involved in setting up the appointment)

3/ Let's say another account has anywhere from 4 to 8 hours of work at one stop. ie several horses.

The expectation of those owners in 1/ and /2 is that the charge per horse will be the same job as the owner in /3.

Going back to the problem of apprenticeships, At those one horse jobs, somebody is going to be standing around doing sfa trying to chat up the pretty girl holding the horse and not being productive, radically adding to the cost of business for that particular job.

It was different in the old days people brought their horses to the farrier in their Village; today we are expected to drive to them which adds to the cost of business, running vehicles etc.

In my case I do a lot of veterinary collaborations which require a custom solution forged or fabricated to suit the pathology concerned. An apprentice will be standing around perhaps learning something, but will not be adding to the process at all... And The marketplace will just not tolerate what I would need to charge in that situation.

As far as lazy b@st@rds go, this game is pretty dangerous and bloody hard yakka and there is the pull of the mining industry where they can sit in an air conditioned halpack and pull in six figures. It takes many years to develop the skills to get to the level of income that I am at and none of the young buggers want to go that path anyway.

As a final part to this rant, perhaps in no other industry is dunning-kruger syndrome more prevalent, and in no other industry are 90% clients completely unable to discern about these things.

This is the reason tradesmen just pulling up the ladder and refusing to put back in to training apprentices, and the way our business and tax structure is set up in this country it is only going to get worse.

 

[farmerge]

I get far more new enquiry than I can reasonably answer. People *desperate for something more than unqualified cowboy... sometimes, desperate for somebody who will just answer their enquiry whether qualified or not.

Of the problem is that people with one animal do not realize what it costs to run this business and will not pay a reasonable recompense.

Here is a thought experiment:

1/ What would some other tradesman charge to drive to a job, set up equipment to spend about an hour doing the actual job, and pack up, about an hour and 20 minutes, depending?

2/ some owners do not want or require their horses to be shod, above scenario but the job might only take 15 minutes, pudding driving to, setting up etc. (Not forgetting all the BS involved in setting up the appointment)

3/ Let's say another account has anywhere from 4 to 8 hours of work at one stop. ie several horses.

The expectation of those owners in 1/ and /2 is that the charge per horse will be the same job as the owner in /3.

Going back to the problem of apprenticeships, At those one horse jobs, somebody is going to be standing around doing sfa trying to chat up the pretty girl holding the horse and not being productive, radically adding to the cost of business for that particular job.

It was different in the old days people brought their horses to the farrier in their Village; today we are expected to drive to them which adds to the cost of business, running vehicles etc.

In my case I do a lot of veterinary collaborations which require a custom solution forged or fabricated to suit the pathology concerned. An apprentice will be standing around perhaps learning something, but will not be adding to the process at all... And The marketplace will just not tolerate what I would need to charge in that situation.

As far as lazy b@st@rds go, this game is pretty dangerous and bloody hard yakka and there is the pull of the mining industry where they can sit in an air conditioned halpack and pull in six figures. It takes many years to develop the skills to get to the level of income that I am at and none of the young buggers want to go that path anyway.

As a final part to this rant, perhaps in no other industry is dunning-kruger syndrome more prevalent, and in no other industry are 90% clients completely unable to discern about these things.

This is the reason tradesmen just pulling up the ladder and refusing to put back in to training apprentices, and the way our business and tax structure is set up in this country it is only going to get worse.

@wayneL Similar rant from me with the rural contracting.
All they want to do is sit in the tractor and think they are top botch drivers.
Hence the reason I work alone and very occasionally have She who is never Wrong as an offsider.
I stress very occasionally as it usually ends up in a argument about how to hold a staf.

 

[SirRumpole]

An apprentice will be standing around perhaps learning something, but will not be adding to the process at all...

At one time that apprentice would have been you I assume ?

 

[divs4ever]

Didn't realise that your industry was short handed, but I guess it is pretty well wide spread everywhere. Too many lazy bar*tards not wanting to work.

after sitting through various health and safety lectures and site inductions .. getting on with the job is very difficult after your brain has been mushed for 15 minutes or up to an hour

there are often an adequate number of workers .. all being lectured at company expense

 

[divs4ever]

At one time that apprentice would have been you I assume ?

not in my 3 months trial as an apprentice , working at base , helping the tradesman on site

now the $$ value of the productivity might have been low , but it was hands-on and bleeding edge

 

[wayneL]

At one time that apprentice would have been you I assume ?

Yes and no.

There was no official apprenticeship nor an official trade at the time in WA. I mentored under a guy who I felt very fortunate to have mentored under, but there was no ticket at the end. I had to RPL later to get my ticket, once the trade was officially recognised (again). And the history around that is long and boring.

That said, things were different in those days. Dudley's forge was at White Valley near Fremantle we did not travel anywhere, everybody brought their horses to us. There was always a cute of horses way as apprentices could be doing something to make ourselves useful or we would be in the forge making shoes from barstock.

There was no freaking standing around under penalty of getting a clip behind the ear.

Normal employment conditions of the day but no superannuation no industrial relations Court etc, no apprentice school (where these days you lose your apprentice to one day a week.)

Masters got their pound of flesh from apprentices in those days.

It is still viable in most other countries, just not here, not in my trade anyway.

Is another little logistical issue. You take on and young bloke and initially it is going to cost you time so you either have to work longer hours or reduce your clientele. Then as The lad becomes confident you have to increase your clientele to justify keeping him on.

Then he decides he doesn't like it in his third or fourth year and quits on you, you have 80% more business than you can possibly handle you were down a worker.

Taking on a new apprentice is only going to make things worse so then you have to drop off heaps of clients. Nse becomes more efficient you have to take them on again and so on, coping with the onerous employment conditions that we have these days.

You know what Horace? I really would like to pass on my knowledge to somebody, I have a lot to give. But not to my financial detriment and mental health.

 

[frugal.rock]

At one time that apprentice would have been you I assume ?

I know where you were trying to go here rumpy, but mate, have you had contact with youngsters these days?
Work is an inconvenience around device usage.
Even where there is decent direction from parents, the child is in an age of entitlement and the worst cases know that and exploit it to it's fullest.
Quite a pertinent topic in its own right under the thread heading, a direct effect.

 

[SirRumpole]

You know what Horace? I really would like to pass on my knowledge to somebody, I have a lot to give. But not to my financial detriment and mental health.

Yes I think your trade is probably too much hard work for the university degree kissing kids of today.

Shame, it's obviously something that is still in demand and will be for some time.

Do the big horse studs employ their own farriers or rely on independents ?

 

[divs4ever]

Work is an inconvenience around device usage.

not so young and not so recent for some of my former co-workers

.. but then some managers now use those devices to send 'essential communications ' so you dare not ignore all the alerts

 

[TimeISmoney]

Yes and no.

There was no official apprenticeship nor an official trade at the time in WA. I mentored under a guy who I felt very fortunate to have mentored under, but there was no ticket at the end. I had to RPL later to get my ticket, once the trade was officially recognised (again). And the history around that is long and boring.

That said, things were different in those days. Dudley's forge was at White Valley near Fremantle we did not travel anywhere, everybody brought their horses to us. There was always a cute of horses way as apprentices could be doing something to make ourselves useful or we would be in the forge making shoes from barstock.

There was no freaking standing around under penalty of getting a clip behind the ear.

Normal employment conditions of the day but no superannuation no industrial relations Court etc, no apprentice school (where these days you lose your apprentice to one day a week.)

Masters got their pound of flesh from apprentices in those days.

It is still viable in most other countries, just not here, not in my trade anyway.

Is another little logistical issue. You take on and young bloke and initially it is going to cost you time so you either have to work longer hours or reduce your clientele. Then as The lad becomes confident you have to increase your clientele to justify keeping him on.

Then he decides he doesn't like it in his third or fourth year and quits on you, you have 80% more business than you can possibly handle you were down a worker.

Taking on a new apprentice is only going to make things worse so then you have to drop off heaps of clients. Nse becomes more efficient you have to take them on again and so on, coping with the onerous employment conditions that we have these days.

You know what Horace? I really would like to pass on my knowledge to somebody, I have a lot to give. But not to my financial detriment and mental health.

That sounds like the type of apprenticeship I had, I reckon if the boss had a whip at hand he would have given it to me. Friday was get the jobs finished so that the business could get paid, had many Fridays without stopping for lunch and or eating while you worked to get the jobs done.

If you had a day off the next day would be the previous day's jobs plus the current day's jobs, and if they didn't get complete they carried over to the next day. After I left the guy went through about 3 apprentices before they finished.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes and no.

There was no official apprenticeship nor an official trade at the time in WA. I mentored under a guy who I felt very fortunate to have mentored under, but there was no ticket at the end. I had to RPL later to get my ticket, once the trade was officially recognised (again). And the history around that is long and boring.

That said, things were different in those days. Dudley's forge was at White Valley near Fremantle we did not travel anywhere, everybody brought their horses to us. There was always a cute of horses way as apprentices could be doing something to make ourselves useful or we would be in the forge making shoes from barstock.

There was no freaking standing around under penalty of getting a clip behind the ear.

Normal employment conditions of the day but no superannuation no industrial relations Court etc, no apprentice school (where these days you lose your apprentice to one day a week.)

Masters got their pound of flesh from apprentices in those days.

It is still viable in most other countries, just not here, not in my trade anyway.

Is another little logistical issue. You take on and young bloke and initially it is going to cost you time so you either have to work longer hours or reduce your clientele. Then as The lad becomes confident you have to increase your clientele to justify keeping him on.

Then he decides he doesn't like it in his third or fourth year and quits on you, you have 80% more business than you can possibly handle you were down a worker.

Taking on a new apprentice is only going to make things worse so then you have to drop off heaps of clients. Nse becomes more efficient you have to take them on again and so on, coping with the onerous employment conditions that we have these days.

You know what Horace? I really would like to pass on my knowledge to somebody, I have a lot to give. But not to my financial detriment and mental health.

Last nob of the week for the apprentice, clean up the workshop, nothing wrong with discipline.
These days they have to employ cleaners. Lol