The state of the economy at the street level

[Belli]

Behind a paywall. Summary, those blaming a particular generation for all the woes i.e you've got it and I want it syndrome, are not looking at the issue properly.

• In the naughties, boomers were castigated for fuelling a fiscal crisis because it was predicted that, as they aged, they would be a drain on the public purse (pensions, hospitals etc) and become a “burden” on younger workers.
• They were blamed for not saving enough for their retirement, even though superannuation came in when they were halfway through their working lives.
• Fewer than 10 per cent of boomers benefited from the fabled free university education. For the most part, only the children of the privileged middle-class attended university in the late 1970s and 1980s.
• Many boomers, anxious about their children’s future, are responsible for a very large transfer of wealth through the bank of mum and dad.
• Those landlords putting up rents for young people? Most of them are Gen Xers and Millennials. And the fastest growing category of homelessness is not among 20-somethings but among women over 55, baby boomers.
• There are rich boomers and there are poor boomers and many in between. For the generational warmongers, the rich-poor divide has been displaced onto a manufactured generational divide.
• Most top decision makers today, in politics, business, the media, are Gen Xers and Millennials. Perhaps Millennials and Gen Xers might turn to their brothers and sisters who now run the country and ask them to create a fairer society.

Blaming Baby Boomers for your money woes is unfair, lazy and wrong

Generational scapegoating places blame on a malevolent generation rather than the political and economic system that creates and perpetuates inequalities between rich and poor.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Value Collector]

Behind a paywall. Summary, those blaming a particular generation for all the woes i.e you've got it and I want it syndrome, are not looking at the issue properly.

• In the naughties, boomers were castigated for fuelling a fiscal crisis because it was predicted that, as they aged, they would be a drain on the public purse (pensions, hospitals etc) and become a “burden” on younger workers.
• They were blamed for not saving enough for their retirement, even though superannuation came in when they were halfway through their working lives.
• Fewer than 10 per cent of boomers benefited from the fabled free university education. For the most part, only the children of the privileged middle-class attended university in the late 1970s and 1980s.
• Many boomers, anxious about their children’s future, are responsible for a very large transfer of wealth through the bank of mum and dad.
• Those landlords putting up rents for young people? Most of them are Gen Xers and Millennials. And the fastest growing category of homelessness is not among 20-somethings but among women over 55, baby boomers.
• There are rich boomers and there are poor boomers and many in between. For the generational warmongers, the rich-poor divide has been displaced onto a manufactured generational divide.
• Most top decision makers today, in politics, business, the media, are Gen Xers and Millennials. Perhaps Millennials and Gen Xers might turn to their brothers and sisters who now run the country and ask them to create a fairer society.

Blaming Baby Boomers for your money woes is unfair, lazy and wrong

Generational scapegoating places blame on a malevolent generation rather than the political and economic system that creates and perpetuates inequalities between rich and poor.

www.smh.com.au

As a millennial, who grew up when they still referred to us as Get Y, I don't think we started the Generation war, for most of our 20's we were trash talked by the Boomers.

As for Boomer Wealth, I don't see it as a problem, the Boomer generation is in the process of drawing down their nest eggs, and as they die the residual amounts flows down to the Millennials and X'ers. The Z's will get their share in turn.

To me it's quite natural that the older generations that have been adulting for 40+ years should be richer than those who are in their first decade of adulting. But each generation will faces its own problems, and the Millennials have faced their share.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

thanks for that @Belli

 

[Dona Ferentes]

To me it's quite natural that the older generations that have been adulting for 40+ years should be richer than those who are in their first decade of adulting. .

and we need to identify the three stages of life
- Infancy
- Adolescence
- Adultery

 

[wayneL]

Talking to the owner of our local. He says things have dropped off quite a bit after the end of September. This, despite my attempts to make it an outstanding success

 

[mullokintyre]

Retail sales down 0.2% after last months 0.9% rise.
The boomers are taking it personally.
mick
Edited to add historical chart.

 

[Smurf1976]

Department stores seem to be struggling:

 

[qldfrog]

Department stores seem to be struggling:

I think people underestimated the WFH and related sea and tree move of the most affluent part of the population
As the richer population move to Noosa ,Byron or wherever, there are only a few shopping trips to the David Jones of Australia, replaced by the daily weekly trips to more local outlets .
Bored stay at home wives will spend differently either internet or more local outside big cities malls IMHO.
The stuck in the cities suburban working crowd does not have matching $power of the retired or sea moved "elite"

 

[mullokintyre]

More and more people seem to be struggling to pay energy bills.
From Evil Murdoch press

A record number of Australians are struggling to pay their electricity bills after prices rose by as much as 28 per cent in the year ended June 30, the country’s energy regulator has said.
The findings will heighten pressure on the federal Labor government, which is struggling to convince voters that it has taken meaningful action to aid families struggling with high inflation and interest rates at more than a decade high.

The Australian Energy regulator said from June 2022 to June 2023 market offers for residential electricity rose in the ACT, NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania by between 12 per cent and 28 per cent. Gains were less extreme in Victoria, rising by between 5 per cent and 11 cent.

The regulator said the proportion of residential customers with energy debt increased 2.9 per cent, up from 2.5 per cent recorded previously. The number of households and businesses on hardship plans increased 1.4 per cent from 1.1 per cent — both at their highest levels in the past five years.
The AER said retailers are identifying vulnerable customers earlier or with less debt, and more and more people are moving on hardship payment plans with smaller amounts of debt — indicating people are struggling with debts which would have previously been serviceable.

Those on payment plans are also incurring more debt, and the AER said the number of customers exiting hardship programs by clearing their debt is at its lowest level since 2018-19.

This is despite being told numerous times that renewables are cheaper by numerous politicians and economists.
The rhetoric is so far removed from reality, and unfortunately for those who have to cope with the reality, will have devastating consequences.
Mick

 

[SirRumpole]

This is despite being told numerous times that renewables are cheaper by numerous politicians and economists.

That really depends on how greedy the generators are going to be and how much competition there is. It doesn't look good at the moment

 

[qldfrog]

That really depends on how greedy the generators are going to be and how much competition there is. It doesn't look good at the moment

True but sadly renewable are actually really expensive, especially when they are needed and absent
Germany spent nearly a trillion if I am not wrong in the last 20y going green, I believe the part of their energy consumption being green has not moved more than 5% and they have restarted coal power plant...
You can not have cheap green energy 24/7

 

[Smurf1976]

This is despite being told numerous times that renewables are cheaper by numerous politicians and economists.
The rhetoric is so far removed from reality, and unfortunately for those who have to cope with the reality, will have devastating consequences.

Agreed with the point but as someone who's watched the whole thing, there's far more to it than the means of generation.

Hence my posts on the subject dating back prior to any significant use of renewables. The problem is far more fundamental than that - a return to coal, or going nuclear, will not of itself fix it for that reason. Indeed the present situation effectively precludes building either of those anyway - not for political reasons but due to the electricity industry's present structure and operation being very different from that required to support coal or nuclear. That's one reason for the closures.

I'll leave it at that since it's somewhat off the thread subject but suffice to say whilst some issues do exist regarding the technology of generation, the problems are far deeper than that and we're not done yet with all the drama - nothing moves in a straight line, there may well be periods when it goes in the opposite direction, but we're not done yet. Oh no we're not.....

 

[mullokintyre]

Spending in the september quarter was up a measly 0.2 %.
From Evil Murdoch press
Were it not for the increases in govt spending, we would be headed for a recession,
ABS head of national accounts Katherine Keenan said the key drivers for the economy was spending by the government, which increased 1.1 per cent for the September quarter after a 0.6 per cent increase in the June quarter.
And of course, were it not for immigration, the figures would be even worse, as per capita GDP fell by 0.5% for the second quarter , the scond fall n a row.

“The growth in government expenditure was driven by social benefits to households, including the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates, and extra payments for childcare, aged care and pharmaceutical products,” Ms Keenan said.
Higher interest rates and cost of living pressures is being felt by households, with the ABS noting that saving to income ratio fell for the eighth straight quarter to 1.1 per cent, its lowest level since December quarter 2007.
“The removal of the Low and Middle Income Tax Offset in the 2022-23 financial year meant many households had a higher income tax bill this quarter, which has contributed to the fall in the household saving ratio,” Ms Keenan said.

“Increased interest paid on home loans and inflationary pressure on households were also likely factors behind the fall in the household savings ratio.”

Imports of travel services rose 19.5 per cent as more Australians travelled overseas during the Northern Hemisphere summer.

Export prices for coal and LNG fell as global supplies increased. This resulted in a fall in mining profits (-6.5 per cent) and drove the 2.6 per cent fall in the terms of trade over the quarter.

Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Looks like the banks will have to be careful, or they will be in trouble for lending to those who can least afford it again.

'People can be very creative': Inside the rise of 'liar loans' in Australia's property market

More people looking to break into the property market are lying on their loan applications in a desperate bid to try to secure a home loan, according to new data. The struggle to refinance is also getting harder with more interest rate rises in 2024 possible.

www.abc.net.au

More people looking to break into the property market are lying on their loan applications — by either overstating their income or understating their expenses — in desperation to try to secure a home loan, according to new data.

Sean Quagliani, the co-founder of financial technology company Fortiro, which big banks and other lenders use to help them detect fraudulent documents, says since interest rates started rising about a year and a half ago, there has been a threefold increase in people lying on home loan applications.

 

[mullokintyre]

Looks like the banks will have to be careful, or they will be in trouble for lending to those who can least afford it again.

'People can be very creative': Inside the rise of 'liar loans' in Australia's property market

More people looking to break into the property market are lying on their loan applications in a desperate bid to try to secure a home loan, according to new data. The struggle to refinance is also getting harder with more interest rate rises in 2024 possible.

www.abc.net.au

More people looking to break into the property market are lying on their loan applications — by either overstating their income or understating their expenses — in desperation to try to secure a home loan, according to new data.

Sean Quagliani, the co-founder of financial technology company Fortiro, which big banks and other lenders use to help them detect fraudulent documents, says since interest rates started rising about a year and a half ago, there has been a threefold increase in people lying on home loan applications.

Yea, they would want to be careful.
look what happened to Trump when he exaggerated his property values.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Sean Quagliani, the co-founder of financial technology company Fortiro, which big banks and other lenders use to help them detect fraudulent documents, says since interest rates started rising about a year and a half ago, there has been a threefold increase in people lying on home loan applications.

that makes a change from the reverse situation ( where they angle for sub-prime rates and bridging finance )

 

[mullokintyre]

The stage 3 tax cuts are a looming issue again.

This article analyses their effects and concludes that they are targetted at the wrong people and will do nothing for the average worker.

We could make most Australians richer and still save billions — it's not too late to fix the stage 3 tax cuts

What if the government kept the stage 3 tax cuts, but reoriented them to Australians who actually need them, asks Peter Martin.

www.abc.net.au

There was a discussion about the stage 3 tax cuts a while back.
According to Tax return , it was going to cost the government 18 billon a year , most of which would go to the wealthy.
And yet in todays AFR , Jim Chalmers mid year staement has a windfall increase in revenue of some 64billion.

Most of this improvement is due to a $30 billion surge in personal income tax from a strong labour market and other tax payments by individuals, as well as higher mining and non-mining corporate profits.

So, the Tax cuts that were going to cause havoc by costing the guvmint 20 bill in tax foregone, has been wiped out by a factor of 50%.
And this is only going to increase, as more and more suckers get caught in bracket creep.
These increases are not going away.
other parts of the income stream, company tax, royalties etc can wax and wane, but the only way the PAYE tax goes down is for a bunch of people to lose their jobs, or shift to lower paid ones.
If that happens, bracket creep will be the least of our worries.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

There was a discussion about the stage 3 tax cuts a while back.
According to Tax return , it was going to cost the government 18 billon a year , most of which would go to the wealthy.
And yet in todays AFR , Jim Chalmers mid year staement has a windfall increase in revenue of some 64billion.

So, the Tax cuts that were going to cause havoc by costing the guvmint 20 bill in tax foregone, has been wiped out by a factor of 50%.
And this is only going to increase, as more and more suckers get caught in bracket creep.
These increases are not going away.
other parts of the income stream, company tax, royalties etc can wax and wane, but the only way the PAYE tax goes down is for a bunch of people to lose their jobs, or shift to lower paid ones.
If that happens, bracket creep will be the least of our worries.
Mick

The tax system is broke and unfair.

My wife and I are selling a rental property to our daughter, we are not receiving market value which is so high most youth struggle to get a decent home, instead we are selling at fair value to family. The tax system is not designed to help family.

Stamp duty has to be paid at market value and our capital gains tax also has to be paid at market value, even though the difference is hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The government are going to get a big chunk of money from us that would and should have gone into our retirement fund.

Sale put on a short hold for now, while we look at our options which are very limited.

As Kerry Packer once said, " As a government I can tell you you're not spending it that well that we should be paying extra."

 

[Dona Ferentes]

My wife and I are selling a rental property to our daughter, we are not receiving market value which is so high most youth struggle to get a decent home, instead we are selling at fair value to family. The tax system is not designed to help family.

Stamp duty has to be paid at market value and our capital gains tax also has to be paid at market value, even though the difference is hundreds of thousands of dollars.

have you been utilising a discounted "family rate" depreciation schedule, or maybe holding back a bit on the interest claimed against your tax (gearing ), all along?

 

[qldfrog]

The tax system is broke and unfair.

My wife and I are selling a rental property to our daughter, we are not receiving market value which is so high most youth struggle to get a decent home, instead we are selling at fair value to family. The tax system is not designed to help family.

Stamp duty has to be paid at market value and our capital gains tax also has to be paid at market value, even though the difference is hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The government are going to get a big chunk of money from us that would and should have gone into our retirement fund.

Sale put on a short hold for now, while we look at our options which are very limited.

As Kerry Packer once said, " As a government I can tell you you're not spending it that well that we should be paying extra."

In which way is this unfair? Seriously?
Allowing fake sale at artificial price would be an absolute scam.
Sell full price , pay the due taxes as everyone does and gift the money or some of the money to your daughter if you will.
I am no friend of the ATO here but really?