Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The state of the economy at the street level

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divs4ever said:
and who was the previous ALP PM that made it easy for Sco-Mo to win

don't confuse 'politically suicidal with 'no way it can happen '

it may take 'a rare kind of stupid' , but currently stupid is very electable
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If labor brought it in (doubtful) the libs would campaign on removing it and likely win in a landslide.

Not being funny, it's probably about the only thing gen Y and the boomers actually agree on. Put those two groups together and you have far more than 51% of the vote.
 
wayneL said:
Also the very rich just do some estate planning. It will just be the poor schmucks in the middle that will get reamed ..again
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So situation normal, the last thing a Govt wants is wealthy workers, they want workers motivated, hungry for overtime, prepared to sell off conditions etc to meet their financial obligations.

The only time that system falls on its ar$e, is when the price of houses get to the point where workers don't buy them, or they are wealthy enough to easily own a house, when either of those happen the worker loses motivation because either way working harder is pointless.

We are fast heading toward the first scenario and there are only a few ways of curtailing it. They either blow up the housing market which will destabilise the economy, they tax the PPR which is a real no no, or they take a cut of what is transfered down the line. They are trying to make pensioners spend the money before they die, but the pensioners that have saved money are frugal by nature, so that isn't going to work and most are cash poor so their PPR value is increasing faster than they are spending also.
Interesting times IMO.
 
JohnDe said:
.A couple of years ago, my wife and I sold one of our investment properties to our son and partner at, current market value, 50% discount so that we can all be in the same neighbourhood. Now it's my daughters turn, and we are doing the same for her. We're losing a big chunk of what we could have made with the properties, but for us family is priority. Besides that, we are still comfortable and if anything happens to us, we are moving in with the kids :)

The past week we have been actively looking for another investment property, it is a healthy market. However, I am seeing other sections of the economy slowing.
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similarly, my son was living in my place and wanted to buy it. Then he found another property 6 doors away - bigger block - and bought it. So, now, and after a bit of spit and polish, my place is on the market ... I hope the buyers are still out there.

And is the timing working in my favour? Agent reported he was fielding enquiries from 'distressed' owners a few months ago, when the interest rate rises were starting to bite; now he says there's been a flurry of listings, especially this week!!
 
Dona Ferentes said:
similarly, my son was living in my place and wanted to buy it. Then he found another property 6 doors away - bigger block - and bought it. So, now, and after a bit of spit and polish, my place is on the market ... I hope the buyers are still out there.

And is the timing working in my favour? Agent reported he was fielding enquiries from 'distressed' owners a few months ago, when the interest rate rises were starting to bite; now he says there's been a flurry of listings, especially this week!!
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My wife has a lot more knowledge on the real-estate market than I and reckons that this is the time of year that lots of properties come onto the market.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
my place is on the market .. .. is the timing working in my favour? Agent reported he was fielding enquiries from 'distressed' owners a few months ago, ... he says there's been a flurry of listings, especially this week!!
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... listed the place on Thursday, first open home today. ...10 groups, mainly families. Four requested contracts.
 
Three auctions today, 2 in same suburb. One sold for $1.25m that was really only a $900,000 property at best with a reserve of $835,00, bidding was extreme. The other in same suburb was twice the land size but odd configuration had a reserve of $1.35m was turned in when no one bid. Market is crazy.
 
there's input from George Tharenou, chief economist for UBS in Australia, about another factor at play

Why it’s Michele Bullock versus the Boomers​

UBS data shows household income from superannuation is running hot, making the economy more resilient to interest rate rises and inflation stickier.

...Tharenou believes the Reserve Bank is probably done lifting rates but it will keep rates at their current 12-year high for 12 months.
.. Factors denting the effectiveness of the RBA’s rate rises include
- demand created by record immigration (which he says could push towards 600,000 this year, putting particular pressure on rents) and
-strong fiscal spending, which Tharenou says remains clearly stimulatory.
- The official rise in the minimum wage and the removal of caps on public service wages are also likely to keep inflationary pressures high.

But the big reason inflation is likely to remain sticky ... is the unexpected resilience of retail trade and household spending .... and these figures mask an “an increasingly bifurcated consumer outlook” whereby the country is divided by their exposure to debts and assets; the nation’s liability-to-income ratio sits at two times, but the asset-to-income ratio sits at 12 times.

.. higher rates are squeezing those with higher debts. On Tharenou’s numbers, mortgage prepayment buffers are back to pre-COVID levels during the pandemic, while the household savings rate has plunged to the lowest level since 2008.

But asset-rich, mainly older households are in a much different position. “For those with assets, higher interest rates are providing a large boost to their interest income – and they’re willing to spend it,” Tharenou says.

He points out interest received has surged to 5 per cent of household income. But what’s been less discussed is the boost these households are getting from superannuation.
Tharenou’s analysis of data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and the Australian taxation office shows that income drawn from superannuation in the last year is already over $100 billion, or a stunning 8 per cent of aggregate household income.
“Obviously, the super system has been maturing for a long period of time now, but what’s happened is that the boomers have now flipped over that preservation age and are willing and able to draw down that income.”

The impact of this superannuation drawdown is, of course, not as great as the true economic shock of surging immigration, or the fiscal stimulus. But Tharenou’s key point is that this “pot of money that didn’t exist in prior decades” is making the economy even more resilient to interest rates.
 
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Boomers after covid are spending, while they are still healthy enough to do so.
For many the pandemic lockdowns were a wakeup call and showed that there is just as much a chance of time running out, as there is of their money running out.
Every older retiree I speak to, has had a reality check and now have a different outlook on their superannuation, than they did pre pandemic.
 
sptrawler said:
Boomers after covid are spending, while they are still healthy enough to do so.
For many the pandemic lockdowns were a wakeup call and showed that there is just as much a chance of time running out, as there is of their money running out.
Every older retiree I speak to, has had a reality check and now have a different outlook on their superannuation, than they did pre pandemic.
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taxes on 'unrealized super gains ' , bail-in laws .and several others events have given the boomers a real jolt ( if not extra risk of heart failure )

sadly i saw much of the 'emergency measures ' coming before 2019 , and took some preemptive strategy decisions
 
Dona Ferentes said:
wow . resident genius, before 2019 ...Covid too?
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Covid is definitively the event I managed like a pro but fully failed the recovery and then my usual mess up.
My view on the actual thread subject is that people have realised fully that we live in a world of pretend and Monopoly money.
The government can decide tomorrow to put you out of business or job,poison you, lock you, send you free money just like that ,vary tax or super on a wimp or even prevent you from buying or sellinga car, renting a bedroom, etc or decide you are a second class citizen based on your skin colour
so, a bit of deeper thinking and you follow up with a pretty simple philosophy
carpe diem
Do not bother saving, working hard,burn your cash while it is still worth more than monopoly money and do not give a shxxt.
It would be very interesting to see consumption of canabis trends, sex worker usage etc
A magistral FU to our government(s) lnp or labour, does not matter.
I am biased as this is my position since the Covid scam
 

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