The state of the economy at the street level

[moXJO]

Spending on experiences

This is huge at the moment.
Could literally throw a couple of coloured LEDs round my yard and charge an entrance fee for it.

 

[mullokintyre]

Todays retail sales out from ABS




This last chart does not look like an increase in "experience" to me.
department stores a surprise, the lack of growth in cafes restaurants and takeaways an even bigger surprise.

And a look at where it is all happening shows up more surprises
Tasmania the largest increase by far, NSW Vic and South Oz ahead of the pack.
WA, QLD NT and ACT pulling it back.
Bodes ill for the QLD Labour Government election.
Mick
EDITED Forgot to mention that it makes a bit more of a case for another rate increase by the RBA.

 

[moXJO]

Having to do "family activities" the "experience" sector looks to be booming from a street level glance.
Circus.
Led lights in different settings.
Pick your own fruit.
Adventure.
Shows (eg recent dinosaur show at Sydney)

I think there's a price point it has to come under. Also a time limit to how long it takes. But it seems to be churning some coin. I talk to a lot of operators and they seem to think it's booming.

 

[divs4ever]

Todays retail sales out from ABS
View attachment 164912
View attachment 164913
View attachment 164915

This last chart does not look like an increase in "experience" to me.
department stores a surprise, the lack of growth in cafes restaurants and takeaways an even bigger surprise.
View attachment 164916
And a look at where it is all happening shows up more surprises
Tasmania the largest increase by far, NSW Vic and South Oz ahead of the pack.
WA, QLD NT and ACT pulling it back.
Bodes ill for the QLD Labour Government election.
Mick
EDITED Forgot to mention that it makes a bit more of a case for another rate increase by the RBA.

AWESOME ! added some extra MYS last week , might have snagged another goer

 

[moXJO]

I heard somewhere that people are 30% down on their savings. But considering no one can afford a house I guess its live and let live.

 

[JohnDe]

House sales are still extremely high, and prices ridiculously high.

I've been waiting for the 'inevitable' fall in the housing market, but the cobwebs are getting so thick I'm losing sight of the end game.

A couple of years ago, my wife and I sold one of our investment properties to our son and partner at, current market value, 50% discount so that we can all be in the same neighbourhood. Now it's my daughters turn, and we are doing the same for her. We're losing a big chunk of what we could have made with the properties, but for us family is priority. Besides that, we are still comfortable and if anything happens to us, we are moving in with the kids

The past week we have been actively looking for another investment property, it is a healthy market. However, I am seeing other sections of the economy slowing.

I wish I had a crystal ball that worked.

 

[moXJO]

House sales are still extremely high, and prices ridiculously high.

I've been waiting for the 'inevitable' fall in the housing market, but the cobwebs are getting so thick I'm losing sight of the end game.

A couple of years ago, my wife and I sold one of our investment properties to our son and partner at, current market value, 50% discount so that we can all be in the same neighbourhood. Now it's my daughters turn, and we are doing the same for her. We're losing a big chunk of what we could have made with the properties, but for us family is priority. Besides that, we are still comfortable and if anything happens to us, we are moving in with the kids

The past week we have been actively looking for another investment property, it is a healthy market. However, I am seeing other sections of the economy slowing.

I wish I had a crystal ball that worked.

Too much demand. Labor needs to cut immigration, but that would cause other problems (probably run hotter). Rental vacancies were running at something like 1% I think. Need another black swan to swat them down. Talk of more "boom" next year.

I heard Canada was in a really bad spot that might start the contagion. But hard to see it happening. They are not building enough houses.

 

[Knobby22]

Todays retail sales out from ABS
View attachment 164912
View attachment 164913
View attachment 164915

This last chart does not look like an increase in "experience" to me.
department stores a surprise, the lack of growth in cafes restaurants and takeaways an even bigger surprise.
View attachment 164916
And a look at where it is all happening shows up more surprises
Tasmania the largest increase by far, NSW Vic and South Oz ahead of the pack.
WA, QLD NT and ACT pulling it back.
Bodes ill for the QLD Labour Government election.
Mick
EDITED Forgot to mention that it makes a bit more of a case for another rate increase by the RBA.

My thesis is that older people have money because cash rate has risen and they use department stores.

 

[Knobby22]

House sales are still extremely high, and prices ridiculously high.

I've been waiting for the 'inevitable' fall in the housing market, but the cobwebs are getting so thick I'm losing sight of the end game.

A couple of years ago, my wife and I sold one of our investment properties to our son and partner at, current market value, 50% discount so that we can all be in the same neighbourhood. Now it's my daughters turn, and we are doing the same for her. We're losing a big chunk of what we could have made with the properties, but for us family is priority. Besides that, we are still comfortable and if anything happens to us, we are moving in with the kids

The past week we have been actively looking for another investment property, it is a healthy market. However, I am seeing other sections of the economy slowing.

I wish I had a crystal ball that worked.

Gisborne located near Melbourne is seeing big property price falls. At least $100,000 on previously 900k properties. If its not prime investment then it is falling.

 

[Smurf1976]

But considering no one can afford a house I guess its live and let live.

I hear rather a lot of comments to the effect young people have simply given up on home ownership and also have no intention of self-funded retirement.

It's so far out of reach they see no point trying and that being so, what money they do have is spent on experiences instead.

Experiences = basically anything that's some sort of organised event or activity. Hence pretty much every concert, live theatre show, professional sporting event and so on is selling out and all manner of really quite lame activities are finding a market.

 

[JohnDe]

Gisborne located near Melbourne is seeing big property price falls. At least $100,000 on previously 900k properties. If its not prime investment then it is falling.

The old saying ‘location location location’ still rings true. Especially in a downturn.

 

[sptrawler]

Having to do "family activities" the "experience" sector looks to be booming from a street level glance.
Circus.
Led lights in different settings.
Pick your own fruit.
Adventure.
Shows (eg recent dinosaur show at Sydney)

I think there's a price point it has to come under. Also a time limit to how long it takes. But it seems to be churning some coin. I talk to a lot of operators and they seem to think it's booming.

Cruises are booking out a year ahead, baby boomers have been demonised for the last few years, plus they have lost a couple of their healthy years travel with covid, so they are booking ahead to make sure they have their bucket list ticked.
Most I talk to say, to hell with, I'm doing it while I can, the kids inheritance is getting hammered, which will please the Govt.
It's hard enough to get workers now, it will be impossible when the kids get their parents house.
Death duties anyone?

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting today we are in Singapore for a one night stopover on the way home, my right knee really doesn't like long flights.
Anyway I like to stay in the more authentic areas when I stay here and as it is a short stop I chose Gelang as usual, if it is more than one day I tend to chose China Town.
Well tonight while walking down to find something to eat, I noticed a lot of the small corner store shelves are completely empty, so I wonder is it a supply problem, a shortage of demand problem, or are they running the inventory down for a reason I will have to ask around.

 

[farmerge]

Cruises are booking out a year ahead, baby boomers have been demonised for the last few years, plus they have lost a couple of their healthy years travel with covid, so they are booking ahead to make sure they have their bucket list ticked.
Most I talk to say, to hell with, I'm doing it while I can, the kids inheritance is getting hammered, which will please the Govt.
It's hard enough to get workers now, it will be impossible when the kids get their parents house.
Death duties anyone?

Shuss don't mention death duties to loudly or some bum polisher in Canberra might thinkit is a good idea.
Was more than happy to see it abolished all so many years ago. May that mongrel tax always rest in eternal hell.

 

[over9k]

Death duties anyone?

Politically impossible.

 

[farmerge]

Politically impossible.

Yeah I guess trying death duties on the peasants would be political suicide.
But would Albo be that dumb or smart.

 

[sptrawler]

Politically impossible.

But it may well be economically unavoidable, that's the real problem.
It was the same conundrum that faced both Keating and Howard, with regard the introduction of the gst and now as then options are becoming limited.
Lowering personal tax rates, refusing to increase the gst rate and coverage, it is all leading to limited options to increase the tax take, just using inflation is crucifying middle Australia.
So importing more skilled workers, which in turn erodes middle Australias wages, just accelerates the slide back to the 1960's.

 

[farmerge]

But it may well be economically unavoidable, that's the real problem.
It was the same conundrum that faced both Keating and Howard, with regard the introduction of the gst and now as then options are becoming limited.
Lowering personal tax rates, refusing to increase the gst rate and coverage, it is all leading to limited options to increase the tax take, just using inflation is crucifying middle Australia.
So importing more skilled workers, which in turn erodes middle Australias wages, just accelerates the slide back to the 1960's.

How about the top end of town being caught up with and the Taxation Department doing the right thing and chasing them down to pay their fair proportion of tax.
Saw on the TV news a couple of nights ago about just how many billions this area gets away with, while poor old Joe Average is hammered into the ground. Easy targets is my guess.

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah I guess trying death duties on the peasants would be political suicide.
But would Albo be that dumb or smart.

Well the ACTU, meantioned it was preferable to some other mentioned taxes, as death duties doesn't put the burden on those who have worked all their lives to achieve financial independance, which is actually what the Governments wants.

It puts the burden on those who are just fortunate enough to be the children of those workers and inherrit the spoils of their parents labour.
That's why most first world countries still have an inherritance tax.

 

[sptrawler]

How about the top end of town being caught up with and the Taxation Department doing the right thing and chasing them down to pay their fair proportion of tax.
Saw on the TV news a couple of nights ago about just how many billions this area gets away with.

You have to remember most politicians fall into that financial demographic, so it isn't very likely they will be too aggressive reigning it in, much easier just to screw the middle class.
While the wealthy get more actual workers as tenants, rather than those in the lower economic group, it's a win win for the wealthy.
Their property portfolio value goes up, as does the rental return, which in turn forces the workers to bid against each other for a rental

Australia building a better country from the top down IMO.