Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The state of the economy at the street level

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the builders i would trust currently have

A. died

B. retired

C. taken the profits accumulated ( in the 1980's ) and opened a chain in a completely different industry for his family to inherit

D. can't find enough staff that can load the truck for the day's start ( seem to spend a LOT of time at Bunnings buying 'forgotten tools ' )

and THAT is why i am monitoring businesses like FBR and places working on modular homes and pre-fabbed modules

but after doing a stint of 'pre-turnover cleans' i have seen some jaw-dropping deficiencies ( and more embarrassingly a buyer spotted a glaring defect ,that even i missed )
 
Huge problem with service. No one seems to be able to do anything. It's ridiculous.

Went to a bank to deposit money (the atm was out) so went to counter. They put the money in the wrong account after stuffing round for a tad under 15mins and me saying "savings account 1234 Not the credit". Then went back in after checking app for another 10-15min to get it to the right

Bought someone shoes for Christmas. Salesperson spent 20mins looking for the shoe size I wanted, as all they could find was the right shoe. Another Salesperson found a box and off I went. Come Christmas and there were two left shoes both different sizes.

Misses went to book a pantech. I got the guy on the phone and specifically told him pantech along with dimensions. Come the day she went to pick it up and its a van.

So called another hire place. Yep they have one and will be ready to go at 11:30am. Turn up at the counter and they don't know who I am or anything about the truck. They try to tell me I called the hire place down the road, then I show them the phone record and email. This is literally 2 hours after I called.

While this is going on I'm arguing with origin on the phone. They had some bundle package that was getting connected the same day for a family member. They end up losing the internet portion of the bundle and tell me I'm with some third party neither of us have heard of. They tried to stiff her till I got on the phone and start spouting consumer laws in the knowledge that I'm slightly more up to date then the person I'm arguing with.

There's also wrong orders, clueless service and stupid questions over a 3 day period.
I literally don't want to use shops anymore.
Yes it might be just the Christmas crew. But I've been noticing this for a while and it seems to be getting worse.
 
divs4ever said:
the builders i would trust currently have

A. died

B. retired

C. taken the profits accumulated ( in the 1980's ) and opened a chain in a completely different industry for his family to inherit

D. can't find enough staff that can load the truck for the day's start ( seem to spend a LOT of time at Bunnings buying 'forgotten tools ' )

and THAT is why i am monitoring businesses like FBR and places working on modular homes and pre-fabbed modules

but after doing a stint of 'pre-turnover cleans' i have seen some jaw-dropping deficiencies ( and more embarrassingly a buyer spotted a glaring defect ,that even i missed )
Click to expand...
I can only recommend a select few as most of the trusted guys have moved on. I keep trying to retire but have had endless phone calls. I'm done though.
 
moXJO said:
I can only recommend a select few as most of the trusted guys have moved on. I keep trying to retire but have had endless phone calls. I'm done though.
Click to expand...
most got exhausted negotiating the financial cycles
the one which founded the chain of stores , worked it out in his 30's , he would build on contract , but would also build for his own investment ( rent out and eventually flip after the area was established ,)

developers went broke , sub contractors went broke , etc etc , he worked out the industry wasn't stable enough to raise his three children on .

enjoy your retirement
 
Was in the city yesterday for work. Went out for dinner afterwards in Barangaroo. Thought it might be quiet as still many places closed for NY holidays and maybe people would be spent out and tired...nope.

Full of people wandering around, eating and having a good time.

Walked from Barangaroo to Central, all the night spots inbetween busy with people eating and drinking. The queue at Messina was at least 30 people deep.

Strong urge to buy stocks.
 
peter2 said:
Lots of retail stocks appearing in today's bullish scans. Also fund managers (MFG, PPT, PDL) and of course gold producers.

The presence of so many retailers indicates that we (ASX) will be unlikely to suffer a recession any time soon.
Click to expand...
well PDL is under take-over moves from PPT .

i disagree on ( most of ) the retailers ( and recession status )

i see SOME paths for future ( long-term ) growth in selected retailers , others i suspect will be devising strategies to reduce costs ( i think some will try rent reduction strategies , thus will be keeping an eagle-eye on REITs )

cheers
 
moXJO said:
Gotta wait on interest rate lag. Probably march.
What's the general consensus?
One year lag time.
Click to expand...
What I'm finding here in the West is, there are starting to be more small trade based businesses advertising in the local paper eg a year ago there would be one plumbing business advertising, now there are three and that applies to most service providers.
It would indicate to me that the backlog of stimulus money going into building, is starting to dry up, that usually hits the smaller businesses first, the bigger ones have bread and butter contracts with the bigger builders.
So as you say moXJO, the lag time is starting to tighten, now the early stages of the tightening are being felt.
Add to that the ramping up of the new Govt's skilled migration intake and I personally think that we will see a more realistic labour market by about the September quarter.
That is my opinion, in W.A, but we always have a labour shortage, it's just prices for work you want done in the house range from stupid(last 2 years) and sensible ( hopefully Sept).
I still can't vet a tiler to rip out and replace the tiles in the shower recess, it has been nearly 12 months and I have a coffee with a tiler most mornings at about 6.60am, he is honest and just says I dont want to do it, there is heaps of work fitting out new homes, why would I want to gut out a shower recess and pizz about vreathing in the dust, prepping the job then doing it, when I can't keep up with clean new work that pays heaps.
So the shower is a good indicator IMO, when I can get someone to do it, obviously the easy money is over. Lol
 
sptrawler said:
I still can't vet a tiler to rip out and replace the tiles in the shower recess, it has been nearly 12 months and I have a coffee with a tiler most mornings at about 6.60am, he is honest and just says I dont want to do it, there is heaps of work fitting out new homes, why would I want to gut out a shower recess and pizz about vreathing in the dust, prepping the job then doing it, when I can't keep up with clean new work that pays heaps.
Click to expand...
ayeyiyi !!

that brings back a nightmare memory , at the current house being repaired for water damage caused be a faulty repair two years earlier ( and NOT in the shower/bathroom area )

but two years to grow mould/mildew in sub-tropical Brisbane and you have a health problem .. so the entire house ceiling had to go ( eventually ) then a search for water-damage/mould in the walls cavities

so apart from the ceiling the shower/bathroom area should have been fine , right ?

well it was until the tradies repairing the ceiling , broke some floor tiles .... ( those tiles were 20 plus years old )

anyway four shower/bathroom rebuilds later , that area is pretty good , apart from the ceiling exhaust fan which just sucks ( in a pathetic way )

now normally the home-owners ( which isn't me ) would be HOSTILE over this circus , but the majority of the rest of the tradies kept them distracted , and domiciled in a hotel for three and half years , while the insurance company picked up the bills ( and THEY didn't smile much at all )

unfortunately ( for the insurer ) the house is brick veneer ( a wooden house would have been demolished and rebuilt after the first year of problems , and double-brick would not have needed almost every gyp-rock wall replaced )
 
Tyler Durden said:
I don't catch taxis often, but when I do, I like to have a chat with the driver and get his/her views on the state of the economy. It can be quite an interesting chat.

I also like to walk a lot, and perhaps it's due to my 'bear-ish' nature, but I have noticed a lot of shops closing down on the streets I walk on. Some of these have been in existence for quite a while (like 5+ years) and some seem short lived.

More recently, I have noticed some friends within my circle to be losing their job or struggling with their career stability. It almost feels like the grim reaper of redundancy is circling me like a shark.

So from my own personal, and microscopic experience, the state of the economy appears to be somewhat gloomy, or at the very least, cautious.

I'm interested in the views of others on their own personal/street level/coal face level on how they feel the economy is going or will be going. Please feel free to share :)
Click to expand...

This thread was started over 8 years ago, very interesting to re-read the comments & gather the differing views.

I’m still on holidays, sharing my time between home & our coastal retreat. I have inadvertently picked up conversations from many different people in different areas.

While enjoying the sun & water activities I heard people talking about looking for and researching properties, some for short term rentals to help pay off the mortgage & then to be their holiday place, others for straight out buy & turn into holiday accommodation.

I watch the realestate market and had another look after hearing all the talk, property is selling fast.

Went to dinner at the Sailing Club, all friendly volunteers. We arrived 30 minutes after opening & the place was buzzing with activity, luckily we got the last table. Talking to the staff, I was informed that it was the busiest night that they have ever had. The members section was full, and so was the guest & outdoor section, with the bar full with people waiting for a table.

Every cafe, pub, bar, restaurant has been full all week. The caravan parks are booked solid, apartment cleaning staff are smiling as their bank accounts fill.

Yesterday evening I drove back home to run some errands, swap cars, pick up a few things & check on my business. I noticed packed 4WD’s & caravans traveling in all directions, number plates from just about every state.

As I got closer to the city I could see a large fireworks at some location, obviously people enjoying themselves.

This morning I went to the gym, I couldn’t believe my eyes, the place is chock-a-block. Quite a few interstate visitors, people talking about their Christmas celebrations & then enjoying the cafe down stairs for some social interaction & food.

I’m now sitting in the car wash cafe waiting for my VF SSV Ute to get the bugs cleaned off, while I have a coffee & croissant amongst the other 20 or so clients.

the economy might be in a bad spot, but the people seem to be holding up pretty well.

I’ll keep monitoring the situation.

Almost time to go, next stop is to swap cars. Taking the Tesla back to my coastal retreat, later in the afternoon after I get the tyre pressure checked and pick up a few things. Busy day.
 
JohnDe said:
This thread was started over 8 years ago, very interesting to re-read the comments & gather the differing views.

I’m still on holidays, sharing my time between home & our coastal retreat. I have inadvertently picked up conversations from many different people in different areas.

While enjoying the sun & water activities I heard people talking about looking for and researching properties, some for short term rentals to help pay off the mortgage & then to be their holiday place, others for straight out buy & turn into holiday accommodation.

I watch the realestate market and had another look after hearing all the talk, property is selling fast.

Went to dinner at the Sailing Club, all friendly volunteers. We arrived 30 minutes after opening & the place was buzzing with activity, luckily we got the last table. Talking to the staff, I was informed that it was the busiest night that they have ever had. The members section was full, and so was the guest & outdoor section, with the bar full with people waiting for a table.

Every cafe, pub, bar, restaurant has been full all week. The caravan parks are booked solid, apartment cleaning staff are smiling as their bank accounts fill.

Yesterday evening I drove back home to run some errands, swap cars, pick up a few things & check on my business. I noticed packed 4WD’s & caravans traveling in all directions, number plates from just about every state.

As I got closer to the city I could see a large fireworks at some location, obviously people enjoying themselves.

This morning I went to the gym, I couldn’t believe my eyes, the place is chock-a-block. Quite a few interstate visitors, people talking about their Christmas celebrations & then enjoying the cafe down stairs for some social interaction & food.

I’m now sitting in the car wash cafe waiting for my VF SSV Ute to get the bugs cleaned off, while I have a coffee & croissant amongst the other 20 or so clients.

the economy might be in a bad spot, but the people seem to be holding up pretty well.

I’ll keep monitoring the situation.

Almost time to go, next stop is to swap cars. Taking the Tesla back to my coastal retreat, later in the afternoon after I get the tyre pressure checked and pick up a few things. Busy day.
Click to expand...
This is undeniably the trend in most places, the anomaly however is none of those people are willing to work more, actually most of them are cutting their hours or jobs overall.

I spoke to my friend who owns a car yard, said there is no sales staff, nowhere... other businesses too. I asked him so what happened? poof one day everyone evaporated? He then made a good point, the lockdowns not so much made people depend on printed handouts but rather change the psychology behind work, priorities in life and the balance.

I have also heard this line mainly from females, usually professionals who will simply say have to live life, getting older, can't worry about the future, savings, money... just enjoy experiences.


To me this is quiet a anomaly, in 2 - 3 years we have suddenly shifted from a society which would work extra hours, 2 jobs, put extra into their super into a society of enjoy now because you don't know what tomorrow brings.

I am more in middle to both mentalities but I think both extremes are not healthy.

So where do we go from here? All the transfer of savings and new taken on debt is good for those that still work/own businesses but will it run forever? I guess once all the dreamers get it out of their system they will have to hang their heads low and crawl back to a boss. Question is when will that happen and will the boss still be around? So far great inflanatory environment, looks like the inflation flame will be burning strong for a while and also demonstrates we have plenty of fat to chew through to keep raising rates.

as investorkid would say makes me want to buy stocks, actually maybe good quality dividents stocks
 
againsthegrain said:
This is undeniably the trend in most places, the anomaly however is none of those people are willing to work more, actually most of them are cutting their hours or jobs overall.

I spoke to my friend who owns a car yard, said there is no sales staff, nowhere... other businesses too. I asked him so what happened? poof one day everyone evaporated? He then made a good point, the lockdowns not so much made people depend on printed handouts but rather change the psychology behind work, priorities in life and the balance.

I have also heard this line mainly from females, usually professionals who will simply say have to live life, getting older, can't worry about the future, savings, money... just enjoy experiences.


To me this is quiet a anomaly, in 2 - 3 years we have suddenly shifted from a society which would work extra hours, 2 jobs, put extra into their super into a society of enjoy now because you don't know what tomorrow brings.

I am more in middle to both mentalities but I think both extremes are not healthy.

So where do we go from here? All the transfer of savings and new taken on debt is good for those that still work/own businesses but will it run forever? I guess once all the dreamers get it out of their system they will have to hang their heads low and crawl back to a boss. Question is when will that happen and will the boss still be around? So far great inflanatory environment, looks like the inflation flame will be burning strong for a while and also demonstrates we have plenty of fat to chew through to keep raising rates.

as investorkid would say makes me want to buy stocks, actually maybe good quality dividents stocks
Click to expand...

I've heard your description of peoples work ethic since my early working life, first from my retired grandfather and later on from my retired father. Funny thing is, we're still there.

I meet and know a lot of people that work very hard. Landscapers, tilers, electricians, and the ilk that get the job done, work their guts out so as to make free time. Quite a few people are working two part time jobs, to save for their house or a holiday. None of these people advertise the fact.

Your mate with the car yard, how did he go for stock? My mate left the car yard sales game because he had no stock to sell, the very large company told the staff that all commission on sales would be given when delivery was completed in 12 to 24 months. My mate now works in finance/banking selling loans.

While there are jobs in the economy and decent pay, there will be people happy to spend it.

 

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