The state of the economy at the street level

[sptrawler]

That's not bad. I've got lazy about travelling.

You're probably not time poor, we are.
Two years out of your life when you're 67, could well be a big chunk.

 

[divs4ever]

You're probably not time poor, we are.
Two years out of your life when you're 67, could well be a big chunk.

but it was filled by plenty of medical appointments to add excitement ( at least for me ) who knows i might even eventually get those specialist consultations the GP requested back in 2019 .

but 1990 was enough for me , Paris had riots , London had an IRA bombing campaign , Italy had some avalanches

 

[moXJO]

Consumer goods seem to be readily available. Supply lines must be back.

 

[divs4ever]

Consumer goods seem to be readily available. Supply lines must be back.

it MIGHT be delayed consumption as well , some stories speak of full containers still waiting to be unpacked ( or sitting on the wharf waiting for a truck )

am watching the Chinese virus antics and am wondering how much is real health measures and how much is (side) show

 

[wayneL]

Consumer goods seem to be readily available. Supply lines must be back.

It's still a bit dodgy over here but good excuses, with regards to rail links, floods in SA and whatnot.

Closer to home, as in, home, we have a glut of tomatoes, zucchinis beans, mulberries, pomegranates.. and soon butternut pumpkins.

Lots of woobla and two microbreweries within staggering distance of home. So no problem getting rat arsed either.

 

[moXJO]

it MIGHT be delayed consumption as well , some stories speak of full containers still waiting to be unpacked ( or sitting on the wharf waiting for a truck )

am watching the Chinese virus antics and am wondering how much is real health measures and how much is (side) show

I went out and bought a bunch of Christmas presents early thinking things might be hard to get again. Many store owners were of the same opinion.

Fast forward to the weekend and many are now saying that their suppliers ended up dumping a bunch of stock on them.

PS5 for example are for the first time on shelves since they came out. They haven't sold out in an instant.

Ipads seems to be in stock.

A lot of other tech stuff seems to be available.

 

[qldfrog]

Firm sells David Jones for $120m after paying $2b eight years ago

www.9news.com.au

Nostalgic..RIP

 

[divs4ever]

Firm sells David Jones for $120m after paying $2b eight years ago

www.9news.com.au

Nostalgic..RIP

i disagree , they can rot in hell , they screwed over my mother when my dad died ( with the super/long service leave shim-sham and the unions just apologized , but i got used to unions being a disappointment )

extra lesson was, there is little loyalty in big corporations ( in direct contrast to the small businesses i have worked in )

 

[moXJO]

Was recently in one and the service from staff was far above that of anywhere else. Knowledgeable about products, could recommend goods with conviction.
I was shocked as service has been so poor everywhere. But it may possibly be a one off incident.

 

[moXJO]

extra lesson was, there is little loyalty in big corporations

This is very true. Seen a lot of people used up by big corporations.

 

[JohnDe]

I went out and bought a bunch of Christmas presents early thinking things might be hard to get again. Many store owners were of the same opinion.

Fast forward to the weekend and many are now saying that their suppliers ended up dumping a bunch of stock on them.

PS5 for example are for the first time on shelves since they came out. They haven't sold out in an instant.

Ipads seems to be in stock.

A lot of other tech stuff seems to be available.

Several months ago, I posted a report from Cathy Wood about an oversupply issue that was coming to the US. And what happens in America almost always affects us.

Cathie Wood: Here's the Biggest Problem Facing Target and Walmart

Ark Investing's Cathie Wood thinks both chains have a problem which could be good for consumers, but maybe not investors at least in the short-term.
DANIEL KLINE MAY 21, 2022

The pandemic has made inventory projections tricky. Usually, when a retail chain makes inventory decisions, it uses its past history and factors in any new information.

In a normal year, that model makes sense. In our current Covid pandemic hellscape, past behavior may not be indicative of what happens in the future. Remember when stores had toilet paper shortages? That happened because a lot of people stopped going to work and office toilet paper and home toilet paper are different things.

Production had to be changed to meet the change in where people used toiler paper. That same problem happens across the entire retail supply chain as retailers including Target (TGT) - Get Free Report and Walmart (WMT) - Get Free Report first struggled to have enough inventory, then fought to have the right inventory, and now are dealing with having too much inventory.

Basically, the two retailers have more inventory than they want. That ties up cash and, depending upon what the inventory is, can lead to items having to be discounted or certain products going bad. It's also possible that both chains (which don't exactly sell trendy merchandise or fast fashion) could simply work through their inventory excess over the next quarter or two.

Target and Walmart Comment on Inventory​

Both Target and Walmart acknowledged having inventory problems during their most recent earnings calls. Walmart CEO Dog McMillon laid out why his company has too much inventory on hand and the market conditions that contribute to it during the chain's first-quarter 2023 earnings call.

"The second item relates to our general merchandise (GM) inventory level, primarily in Walmart U.S.," he said. " GM was a lower percentage of total sales in Q1, resulting in an unfavorable gross margin mix. We also had higher costs for containers and storage, and we've taken and are taking steps to contain those cost pressures to the first half of this year."

The CEO acknowledged that the quarter was going to be a challenge when it came to general merchandise because the company was "up against stimulus dollars from last year."

Target had a similar problem with customers buying different items than what the company had forecast.

"More specifically, we saw a much higher than expected rate in transportation costs and a more dramatic change in our sales mix than we anticipate. This resulted in excess inventory, much of it in bulky categories, which put additional strain on an already stretched supply chain," CEO Brian Cornell said during his chain's first-quarter earnings call.

Cornell noted that the change in consumer spending was more broad than Target had expected.

"While we anticipated a post-stimulus slowdown in these categories, and we expect the consumers to continue refocusing their spending away from goods and services, we didn't anticipate the magnitude of that shift," he said. "As I mentioned earlier, this led us to carry too much inventory, particularly in bulky categories, including kitchen appliances, TVs, and outdoor furniture. And with very little slack capacity after two years of unprecedented growth, we faced elevated costs to store and indicated rightsizing our inventory position. Nevertheless, we're still seeing healthy overall spending, I guess, even as their spending continues to evolve."

How Are Walmart and Target Handling Excess Inventory?​

"We started being aggressive with rollbacks in apparel, for example, during Q1. Even with reduced prices, the apparel margin can still be helpful to our overall mix," McMillon said.

Target Chief Growth Officer Christina Hennington explained that the chain had been careful, but it still had to make some very difficult choices.

"Despite this careful approach, the mix of actual demand materialized differently than we had anticipated. In addition, as supply grew and demand shifted away from bigger, bulkier products like furniture, TVs and more, we needed to make difficult trade-off decisions," she said. "We could keep this product knowing would sell over time or we could make room for fast-growing categories, like food and beverage, beauty and personal care, and household essentials."

Target chose to use discounts to sell off some its bulkier items rather than store them.

To preserve the quality of on-shelf presentations and support the guest experience, we chose the latter, leading to incremental markdowns that reduced our gross margin," she said. "While these were difficult decisions, we believe they'll pay off in the long term, given that building long-term loyalty remains our top priority."

 

[divs4ever]

Several months ago, I posted a report from Cathy Wood about an oversupply issue that was coming to the US. And what happens in America almost always affects us.

i was thinking oversupply + obsolete (out of fashion ) stock this time , which products will hold the consumers' desire to acquire , i also see a similar problem at manufacturer level ( but i could be wrong on the last bit )

 

[The Triangle]

i was thinking oversupply + obsolete (out of fashion ) stock this time , which products will hold the consumers' desire to acquire , i also see a similar problem at manufacturer level ( but i could be wrong on the last bit )

One of the largest shopping differences I noticed between living in Australia vs. US is the complete lack of really good sales, clearances, outlet shops, etc. in Australia. I don't have any proof - but anyone who has spent significant time living in the US knows what I mean.

Since nothing is really manufactured or built or distributed from Australia and everything has to be shipped in (in relatively small quantities vs a european or american port) I've just assumed that big corporations have decided that the risk of oversupply in Australia is simply not worth it, and the country is better off being at risk of undersupply and keeping profits margins higher at the risk of sales.

 

[moXJO]

One of the largest shopping differences I noticed between living in Australia vs. US is the complete lack of really good sales, clearances, outlet shops, etc. in Australia. I don't have any proof - but anyone who has spent significant time living in the US knows what I mean.

Since nothing is really manufactured or built or distributed from Australia and everything has to be shipped in (in relatively small quantities vs a european or american port) I've just assumed that big corporations have decided that the risk of oversupply in Australia is simply not worth it, and the country is better off being at risk of undersupply and keeping profits margins higher at the risk of sales.

Sales here suck. It's never a real discount.
Except when that hardware company "masters" shut down. Damn stuff got cheap. Staff didn't care and guys were filling up toolboxes and walking out the door.

 

[Smurf1976]

I'm noticing advertising for home builders is happening again.

That presumably means demand's cooling off somewhat?

Also I'm noticing that vacant land, that which has been sub-divided and is ready for development, isn't exactly selling quickly.

 

[divs4ever]

I'm noticing advertising for home builders is happening again.

That presumably means demand's cooling off somewhat?

Also I'm noticing that vacant land, that which has been sub-divided and is ready for development, isn't exactly selling quickly.

demand OR supply , some items ( or fittings ) have been hard to get , it is possible more homes/buildings are finally completed freeing up capital and workers

affordability will be the next bottle-neck most incomes rise slower than costs and interest rates , and one would suspect lenders would be using increased caution , this could easily become a CASH-buyers market in the near term ( stressed sellers , and limited buyers )

so do people rent their own accommodation or employ various sharing strategies ( move back in with parents/family , perhaps house-share , or perhaps rent rooms to spread expenses . )

this might be a good time for small project building ( granny flats, extensions , build in verandas , extra bathrooms etc )

 

[wayneL]

Was out xmas eve, Bunnings etc, went to the pub afterwards. It was eerily quite. Was expecting the usual shxtfight to get parking, but nup.

 

[divs4ever]

was relatively normal in the local shopping-town ( not the local strip malls )

didn't see much evidence of increased online shopping ( deliveries in the street )
i DID note the newsagent had a large number of gift-packs containing scratchies ( which uplifted me and my hopes for TLC divs in the new year ) , coincidence or an omen ?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Coles was announcing lobster at $22 several times , over the PA, and that was mid-Fri afternoon. Must have overordered.

 

[Knobby22]

Coles was announcing lobster at $22 several times , over the PA, and that was mid-Fri afternoon. Must have overordered.

Might be worth a look!