The Reset and its implications for your finances: how to profit from it?

[qldfrog]

This is the birth of a thread which could be controversial as it edges on one assumption;
You may or not agree with that assumption, if you disagree , that thread is not for you so please restrain from posting here and do not waste you time, I am just a loonies.
The aim is not to go into aimless fights with keyboard warriors.This is my view: might be right might be wrong, not the issue
The concept/assumption:
For decades now, pushed first by the so called liberals but also by the right parties in power, we have seen a trend in the West pushing ideas like:
absence of nationality and borders, predominance of world un-elected instances over nations and citizens, removals of freedom of speech and actions and generally a push to a new world order based on a dumbing of population and focus on material wealth against more spiritual pursuit or independence of thinking, freedom.
This has lead to a backlash demonstrated rightly or wrong by the Brexit, Trump election, etc etc...
As per history, pushing a system against a population wish is doomed and this has quickly been realized by the powers in place: call it Deep State, the 1%, the Davos clique, they are the one holding the reins to our daily lives, from Feds QE, Giant corporation managers, politicians of duo parties to Newfeeds to Social Media trends and censorship.
I am more and more convinced the Coronavirus crisis is used as the pretext for a giant RESET: imposing ideas and regulations on citizens not by force, but by demand of a scared population:
a mix of propaganda, number manipulations and suddenly people agree to:
avoid using cash, full tracking of movements, do not meet in groups, lock frontiers and travels, even close whole industry and become little more than consumptions units;
The decried universal income so decried ended up in place in 2 months, without arguments, Trillions of fake money created, etc etc, massive corporate subventions and helicopter money
SO what can we expect in the short, medium and long term out of this?
How do we preserve and fructify our assets when truths are not truth anymore, when facts do not matter and when you get paid more to stay at home than working.
This is what this thread is about

 

[qldfrog]

Now, what are the key ideas lines which are going to come:
- less freedom of speech,
- destruction of nationalism and self governing idea
- bigger move to supra national institutions
- diminishing role of both US and EU , yet unchanged Russia/China positions: Russian might be able to be brought into the line, China will not and they are laughing.....
-destruction of paper money, and in the face of trillions of debt, wiping of government debts
- collectivism for both company assets..bought back by local feds and personal assets (seizure, mandatory contributions etc)
- in a world where we have not enough jobs left, move to Universal Income and leveling of the purchasing power of the 99.99 %
-Force change to economy under Climate Change fight pretext:
renewal of entire car, plane fleets and house renovation/destruction mandated by new mandatory energy rating.=> creating the jobs needed under a Green label pretext
In Europe, subsidies to key industries: airlines, car manufacturing are subject to new mandatory conversion to EV, lower fuel consumption or flight route: only the 1PC will fly, forget about you bali trip.
-Decision has been made not to fight overpopulation so reduction in food choice freedom: meat becoming reserved as a luxury for the elite whereas the masses will be thrown fake food.

So now, how do you do to preserve your assets and grow them.What is safe, what is not?

Will ownership of gold, cash , bitcoin become illegal and if so where to?
France a place I know well has started taxing not income but assets, it is coming here..PPOR annual tax replacing stamp duties during transfer.
So even if you just keep a block of gold or a stack of coins, you will need to give some back every year and see the magic of compounding work its way in reverse.
If you assume the above, and it is surprising how quickly things can happen, do not dismiss this as "never in my lifetime":what is the way to go?

 

[qldfrog]

@wayneL , @sir Rumpole, @Smurf, @Dona Ferentes @sptrawler @macca and so many others :I would be happy to see your view along these lines, and if you think this is too crazy say so, no worries and I will carry on the thread alone.

 

[Knobby22]

Qldfrog, I don't understand why you say destruction of Nationalism , the opposite is happening.
International institutions set up after WW2 are being destroyed by it. Never been stronger unfortunately.

 

[SirRumpole]

China is being exposed as a global threat, not just because of covid, but for Hong Kong, The Uighurs which must chill Muslim nations like Indonesia, and for cyber attacks.

I predict a general pullout from China , but they will keep buying our iron ore because they need it, but will look for other ways to "punish" us. Best to condition ourselves for a new reality of a less easy life and doing more for ourselves.

 

[wayneL]

@qldfrog I think your scenario is a reasonable proposition and have long been forming, or rather realising the same view, mostly, especially how CV has been handled.

The only thing I can't work out is, to what end and to whose benefit?

It will be interesting how this discussion pans out and how quickly it will be labelled a conspiracy theory by some. Will certainly give this more attention as I have time.

@Knobby22 I think the nationalism is a reaction of the "proletariat", an unease, an intrinsic understanding that something is rotten in the state of Denmark, but without knowing all the details. Just look at the anti-nationalist narrative and the categorization of nationalists as far right racists, deplorables, gammon etc, all the attendant and highly offensive tags.

IMO

 

[Dona Ferentes]

sounds like a shopping list, QF.... of worst case scenarios. But I think the individual is inventive and adaptable enough to navigate around change, and cope with it. That's what we do all the time.

I do think the thesis of declining common wealth is a fair enough reality. The best way to respond is by being creative, and optimistic. Creativity allows you to interpret and respond; optimism gives you the tools to do so. The rate of change, accelerated by technology and innovation, means the assumptions we make won't even have any relevance in the future (the Kursweillian paradigm shift) so its best to keep our eyes and ears open. Rather than seeing things as regression and disruption, perhaps encompassing the progress and adaption will help position people to cope (and thrive).

Meantime, it could be fair to say the 'post war' period, from the late 1940s on, have been atypically bounteous. Perhaps the Hobbesian view of the 'life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short' has rung true for too long. I hope for better..
"Laissez les bons temps rouler"

 

[Smurf1976]

It's a good subject I think provided that discussion stays on the topic of positioning ones self financially and we keep of "conspiracy" type stuff.

To that end I don't think any of this is really new but it's something that has been coming for quite some time.

I've got a book, that is a printed book not online, about the idea of cramming more people into the cities which has forced up house prices and so on. It's not a recent publication and that's my point, it's 30 or so years old now.

Real wages have been declining for quite some time. Again nothing new.

And the big one - central banks are printing like there's no tomorrow. That's going to inflate something, the key being to work out what it inflates but the money's going to go somewhere as it always does.

Working out where the central bank money goes is my thought as to the "correct" approach to this and in the absence of a better idea, my thinking is firmly "physical". That is, real tangible things or at least shares in companies which produce them. Gold, oil, metals especially those needed for high tech applications, etc.

 

[qldfrog]

Qldfrog, I don't understand why you say destruction of Nationalism , the opposite is happening.
International institutions set up after WW2 are being destroyed by it. Never been stronger unfortunately.

I see what you mean indeed, the aim to destroy nations took a setback with Trump,Brexit , etc but the aim is still there and I believe watered in "we are all a set of tribes": black exploitation in America France and Australia being the same...which is BS obviously yet BLM demonstrations all over the west
But no Australia specific France specific issue..whereas maybe it should me:you are a women in metoo based on hollywood, not based a DV victim in a settlement in Africa or NT , an antifada, a black or ecologist but nation has disappeared.
After living on a feed of world news, people forget their specificity, an Australian woman worries about a little English girl kidnapped in Spain 20y ago..yet how many have been kidnapped in the suburbs next door?

You are expected to sacrifice your factory for the sake of the planet forgetting that India or China are the problem, etc. Transnational is the trend, these nationalists are the last resistance before capitulation.
Why?
You can not accept a Chinese wage if you consider yourself different.
As I know EU well:
why could you justify that a Romanian paid in euro should be less paid than you: French or German born once the EU tag dominate: National flags are not even present from car plates anymore in the EU:used to have a small sign, not anymore;
But that is a very old attempt, which backfire, not a priority anymore and except forecasting the failure of the made in Australia tag, not much profit to get there:

You are a citizen of the brave new world..speaking English as well BTW...
about" International institutions set up after WW2 are being destroyed by it"
I doubt they are being destroyed by nationalism, the US used to lead and managed these, this is over and they were still expected to foot the bill;
Trump kicked off, Xi came in and gave funding; Change of allegiance, whores to a new Pimp

I believe these are more a cause of a problem then a solution.Look at Palestine, any conflict since the fall of the Berlin Wall, when has UN been useful? A bloated corrupt organisation responding to no one, look at WHO? or UNICEF? Anyway, I think neither the populist nor the RESET makers really care about the thing(Le machin) as General de Gaulle was saying more than 50y ago...

Either way not much profit I can see or trend to ride there
Except maybe defence for a war against China (not only USA but everyone else, Europe can focus on Russia)
Look at the news this week about our army budget.

 

[qldfrog]

sounds like a shopping list, QF.... of worst case scenarios. But I think the individual is inventive and adaptable enough to navigate around change, and cope with it. That's what we do all the time.

I do think the thesis of declining common wealth is a fair enough reality. The best way to respond is by being creative, and optimistic. Creativity allows you to interpret and respond; optimism gives you the tools to do so. The rate of change, accelerated by technology and innovation, means the assumptions we make won't even have any relevance in the future (the Kursweillian paradigm shift) so its best to keep our eyes and ears open. Rather than seeing things as regression and disruption, perhaps encompassing the progress and adaption will help position people to cope (and thrive).

Meantime, it could be fair to say the 'post war' period, from the late 1940s on, have been atypically bounteous. Perhaps the Hobbesian view of the 'life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short' has rung true for too long. I hope for better..
"Laissez les bons temps rouler"

Very optimistic:
what would have been the result for a Jewish family in the 1930's of such an attitude; we are not very far IMHO, just different scale as it is now a planet wide game.And so harder to flee.
I do not want to be the European Jew of 1930.
Or a South African white farmer/Egyptian copte in 2010....where was the UN then, not Trump's fault ;-)
I saw a lot in China which is being rolled here now:
full video tracking of cars and people movements, recognition of people via face and gait (to bypass masks), all this is coming here: Victorian police using camera to maintain state blocus..sorry lockdown;
In a country which not so long ago was fighting against a national ID concept;
LOL
SO yes some technologies domains to enter:
facial recognition, IA, prison companies(operation and building);
add mapping NEA, not sure who else is good enough in Australia; defence, drones inc drone fighting

 

[qldfrog]

It's a good subject I think provided that discussion stays on the topic of positioning ones self financially and we keep of "conspiracy" type stuff.

To that end I don't think any of this is really new but it's something that has been coming for quite some time.

I've got a book, that is a printed book not online, about the idea of cramming more people into the cities which has forced up house prices and so on. It's not a recent publication and that's my point, it's 30 or so years old now.

Real wages have been declining for quite some time. Again nothing new.

And the big one - central banks are printing like there's no tomorrow. That's going to inflate something, the key being to work out what it inflates but the money's going to go somewhere as it always does.

Working out where the central bank money goes is my thought as to the "correct" approach to this and in the absence of a better idea, my thinking is firmly "physical". That is, real tangible things or at least shares in companies which produce them. Gold, oil, metals especially those needed for high tech applications, etc.

The extra push in thin air money is scary, and indeed I see gold etc as a refuge, I just believe government will seize these assets the day they seize the super/accounts and cancel their own debt: aka refuse to repay/pay interest

We are fed a lot of scary news about the virus, but what is interesting is the French news lately and I can help a bit there:
France: under a president which is a pure result of the reset maker: member of right/left parties and worked with teh main banks in Paris; a RESET member if any;
Working right now on the big collaboration with Merkel to flood EU with money..so basically an image of the ideas in the EU key members
This last week in the french main TV edition (national broadcaster) there were clear explanations on the national debt (exploding) is scary but , debt can be wiped out, interests are low anyway, and we could afford to default, cancel, not only France ..but EU
Then a few days earlier: French citizens are scared of economic future and putting their money in term deposit gov guaranteed...
The idea was to forcibly move these into "working capital": still own by the people but backing investment funds...
So you still own the money but basically, not where it goes and potentially disappear;

Just think about it: June/july 2020: defaulting on debt and seizing assets discussed on mainstream TV for one of the key EU members.Would you have guessed that 1y ago?
SO if we see debt as being wiped, probably a new currency: FMI backed? and seizure of assets...based on 1900's experience, will mean gold assets seized/mandatory purchase

Now will shares be safe?
Should we setup structure to avoid direct ownership of shares? (under a company for example?)
Otherwise, i tend to agree that physical goods mines and PM should make sense
I believe all will get wild by November 2020 (with the results of US elections) at the earliest so we have a few months left

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

The extra push in thin air money is scary, and indeed I see gold etc as a refuge, I just believe government will seize these assets the day they seize the super/accounts and cancel their own debt: aka refuse to repay/pay interest

We are fed a lot of scary news about the virus, but what is interesting is the French news lately and I can help a bit there:
France: under a president which is a pure result of the reset maker: member of right/left parties and worked with teh main banks in Paris; a RESET member if any;
Working right now on the big collaboration with Merkel to flood EU with money..so basically an image of the ideas in the EU key members
This last week in the french main TV edition (national broadcaster) there were clear explanations on the national debt (exploding) is scary but , debt can be wiped out, interests are low anyway, and we could afford to default, cancel, not only France ..but EU
Then a few days earlier: French citizens are scared of economic future and putting their money in term deposit gov guaranteed...
The idea was to forcibly move these into "working capital": still own by the people but backing investment funds...
So you still own the money but basically, not where it goes and potentially disappear;

Just think about it: June/july 2020: defaulting on debt and seizing assets discussed on mainstream TV for one of the key EU members.Would you have guessed that 1y ago?
SO if we see debt as being wiped, probably a new currency: FMI backed? and seizure of assets...based on 1900's experience, will mean gold assets seized/mandatory purchase

Now will shares be safe?
Should we setup structure to avoid direct ownership of shares? (under a company for example?)
Otherwise, i tend to agree that physical goods mines and PM should make sense
I believe all will get wild by November 2020 (with the results of US elections) at the earliest so we have a few months left

From a geopolitical and security perspective:

An assumption that we can make, is that the Morrison Government has been advised to prepare for the breakdown in global order; hence the announcement to boost our government defense budget by a relatively extraordinary amount. We are on the cusp of a rapid transition to a new world order; the interconnectedness of global systems are deteriorating, and the new world that we will face is uncertain.

How can we feel comfortably secure when the USA can't reassure us that they have our backs. The USA is a powder keg of civil unrest and the fuse looks like it has already been lit. What we don't want in Australia; is for the civil unrest in the USA to spill over into our backyard. We must encourage debate and dialogue, as opposed to mass protest and violence.

From a global financial and economic perspective:

The global financial system has been destabilised from 2008/2009 GFC, and we have never really returned to proper, sensible, and disciplined economics. The US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) has actually caused more damage to the US and global economy with its nonsensical adoption of radical Keynesian economics, where their monetary policy has jeopardised and debased the global reserve currency. For all actions there are consequences; unfortunately most US FRB governors embrace the ideology that it won't be their problem when the bill falls due, and the bill always falls due at some point.

To protect your capital and possibly profit:

The safest way is to sit on cash, precious metals and property while this all plays out. The length of time isn't clear; could be years, could be decades. Is it practical to only have an asset portfolio of just cash, gold and property? Not really I say; however it all comes down to the individual, their risk appetite/tolerance, where they are positioned in life and what they reasonably aim to achieve in life.

 

[ducati916]

1. From a geopolitical and security perspective:

An assumption that we can make, is that the Morrison Government has been advised to prepare for the breakdown in global order; hence the announcement to boost our government defense budget by a relatively extraordinary amount. We are on the cusp of a rapid transition to a new world order; the interconnectedness of global systems are deteriorating, and the new world that we will face is uncertain.

How can we feel comfortably secure when the USA can't reassure us that they have our backs. The USA is a powder keg of civil unrest and the fuse looks like it has already been lit. What we don't want in Australia; is for the civil unrest in the USA to spill over into our backyard. We must encourage debate and dialogue, as opposed to mass protest and violence.

2. From a global financial and economic perspective:

The global financial system has been destabilised from 2008/2009 GFC, and we have never really returned to proper, sensible, and disciplined economics. The US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) has actually caused more damage to the US and global economy with its nonsensical adoption of radical Keynesian economics, where their monetary policy has jeopardised and debased the global reserve currency. For all actions there are consequences; unfortunately most US FRB governors embrace the ideology that it won't be their problem when the bill falls due, and the bill always falls due at some point.

3. To protect your capital and possibly profit:

The safest way is to sit on cash, precious metals and property while this all plays out. The length of time isn't clear; could be years, could be decades. Is it practical to only have an asset portfolio of just cash, gold and property? Not really I say; however it all comes down to the individual, their risk appetite/tolerance, where they are positioned in life and what they reasonably aim to achieve in life.

1. There is already a new Cold War between China and US. Whether it develops into a Hot War, who knows.

2. I have in the past been highly critical of Central Banks and their kick-the-can down the road strategy. What if the can, can continue to be kicked indefinitely?

3. Property with land that can produce is preferred to say a flat. If looking at PMs, why not silver currently over gold? Cash is fine (until it isn't) and you'll never really know it isn't until far too late. Stocks actually perform pretty well even in the major wars where the country loses: Japan/Germany.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Fully agree on new world order, what scare me if the new powers gov can get when the people actually ask for it instead of agreeing fighting against it.as noted, new cold war, kicking the can since gfc, we can all see it.
The virus has enabled new mass control unthinkable of even a year ago, imagine what will happen if first shots are fired over Taiwan or similar?
We will be asked not to rise as nation but as the world against darkness..that is my point vs nations being removed from the equation.
While safest: PM can be seized.
Shares probably the way to go, no bonds as for cash....war, epidemy or not, sooner or later these figures on a screen will be reduced..used to be inflation ..not working then devaluation thru NewDollar.
It is true that since GFC, that could be seen as the case...
Imagine being cash after the GFC...not good..in a new world, new attitudes..so Feds might be able to kick the can further.

A more short term win:
Gov especially here in Australia NZ have been pushing the story of a vaccine..we will restart after vaccine, eliminate not control.etc
They have locked themselves in a corner, a shame they had no scientific background....
So a vaccine we must pretend to find, and then mandatorily get.

On an ASX basis, i think CSL will be the one to profit so a fair bet CSL will benefit in the next 6 months: needs to be Australian, big and trusted enough....a given.
I repeat whereas a vaccine is found or not is irrelevant, you will get something injected even if 100% useless.
I will order some CSL on Monday
Thanks @ducati Silver indeed, next allocation of paper PM will be silver or silver mine.make sense and if all goes well the industrial side of it is a good choice

 

[tech/a]

My view which I’ll place here once.

What we are seeing are Consequences of events
There are agendas that take advantage of those consequences.
Agendas
Power
Money
Always been here always will be.

 

[qldfrog]

My view which I’ll place here once.

What we are seeing are Consequences of events
There are agendas that take advantage of those consequences.
Agendas
Power
Money
Always been here always will be.

Agree, I do not suggest Covid was engineered for that purpose , no way, nor is it caused by 5G , you name it...
but is definitively milked and milked again for a lot of purposes.
This came at a great time and is providential for many interests, most not aligned with us common western people
If you are at risk, take vitamin D and wear masks when in confined places/public transport..you will be fine, but your assets, super and SMSF might not so let's think

 

[SirRumpole]

Real wages have been declining for quite some time. Again nothing new.

No it's nothing new, but it's a serious problem in my view.

Businesses can't keep laying people off, reducing their hours and forcing them into insecure work, then expect them to keep spending on the goods and services that businesses produce.

I think there has to be something of a "new deal", a change in tax policy that redistributes more from the business sector to the consumers to keep the cash circulating.

If something like that is not done, then I predict a further slow strangulation of the economy . This has already been happening for the last decade or so prior to covid, the almost zero interest rates are a good indication of that.

 

[tech/a]

From an employers view.
If I full time employ and go through hard times ( often challenges are once every 10 years)
I have to pay severance pay when I’m bleeding
If I have a bout of expansion I need staff quickly and not permanently so I hire part time.
If I employ more people I pay payroll tax
Part time a pay 25% loading and people and agencies line up.

Both employees and employers need NOT TO BE Penalised for working or making it available.
Situations change when they do there are penalties rarely support for either of us.

 

[wayneL]

My view which I’ll place here once.

What we are seeing are Consequences of events
There are agendas that take advantage of those consequences.
Agendas
Power
Money
Always been here always will be.

CBs have a history of engineering crises in order to usher in change.

Finance has been approaching crisis for some time, COVID was the windfall opportunity which they have indeed engineered massive fear over.

It was the allegorical breakout trade they've gone all in on.

Now watch the change

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

There is much wisdom in this thread.

gg