The Reset and its implications for your finances: how to profit from it?

[aus_trader]

Good thread, I didn't get a chance to read it before the weekend since too busy.

Some small tweaks can be made to asset allocation etc. is my conclusion thus far, but even then it will not be foolproof way to protect them. But I don't think we should panic and stuff our cash/gold and other assets under the mattress since any drastic moves could spill disaster as we don't know how/when the financial reset will occur.

 

[qldfrog]

Indeed but real diversification is required.
I am more worried of governments actually: manipulating markets, opinions, currencies and omniscient power and knowledge on us..akka individuals
This creates for an inherently instable system, fragile with limited use for historical or economic knowledge, and high probabilities of drastic potentially catastrophic events from war to new currency to asset seizures or freezes.
In this context, bombarded with misinformation, carried by manipulated opinions, how do we keep afloat especially when you are not mainstream nor in the very top 0.001%
I especially think of financially independent people like of course myself but also SMSF, FIRE people etc
Previous advice are turned upside down so where can you find some wealth safety
Remember this is what our leaders see as your future
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQIcoiQH-BwmaMoO0ryCqwB3NB0KM77RVhCng&usqp=CAU
Wall-E consumers brain dead isolated in their bubble:
Covid19 and greenhouse emission travel free, consuming media and eshopping...

 

[rederob]

I am more worried of governments actually: manipulating markets, opinions, currencies and omniscient power and knowledge on us..akka individuals

Put aside your conspiracy theories and focus on what governments actually control.
That's fiscal and monetary policies (and external "opinions" only in respect of dictatorial regimes).
Creating debt increases the value of physical assets over paper, to the extent the asset remains in demand.
The immutability of gold places it in a unique asset class.
Our low interest environment allows borrowing into greater debt and inflated market prices.
Being more exposed to asset bubbles which are based on increasing debt does not seem sensible.
Traders won't need to worry as they can choose when to come and go. However, they might remain exposed to fiat currency unless diversifying.
Investors should look closely at holdings of asset classes exposed to significant debt and fickle demand.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Major themes: Covid will accelerate and amplify pre-existing trends and vulnerabilities. Some are geopolitical, some are linked to internal politics, some are economic/ structural, some are financial.
- Decoupling
- Deglobalisation
- Digitalisation
- Debt

There are wins and losses from each of these.

 

[qldfrog]

Major themes: Covid will accelerate and amplify pre-existing trends and vulnerabilities. Some are geopolitical, some are linked to internal politics, some are economic/ structural, some are financial.
- Decoupling
- Deglobalisation
- Digitalisation
- Debt

There are wins and losses from each of these.

And Constant loss of freedom of the individual nothing new, as pointed acceleration.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

And Constant loss of freedom of the individual nothing new, as pointed acceleration.

What passes for "freedom of the individual" or the "loss of freedom" over the last 30 years is a mere chimera @qldfrog .

As a contented Übermensch may I point you to reading Nietzsche on those foggy winter mornings before the ASX opens for an idea of true freedom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Nietzsche_and_free_will#About_man_and_freedom

It may be better to read it au français as it is deep difficult stuff, at least it is for me, but satisfying in this world of happenstance and eternal recurrence.

Anyway good buying and selling.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

en français .... l’essence précède l’existence.

But don't get all Buddhist on us, folks. I thought you were looking for pathways, not despair.

There will be a reset, and that implies a repositioning. I quite liked that Ray Dalio clip posted recently... returns will be lower but (we can) manage the risk, diversify into (multiple) sectors, be nimble.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Despair is not good for the markets. Everyone stops buying and selling. Fear is much better at present. It provides liquidity.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

What passes for "freedom of the individual" or the "loss of freedom" over the last 30 years is a mere chimera @qldfrog

I just look at the chimere of being able to do my job in china without a minimum of 1 month in house/hotel arrest at my cost
Of choosing to go holidaying outside my house, then 50km radius then state for the last 3 months, or being actually unable to leave this country wo breaking laws.
Chimère.. .

 

[qldfrog]

I just look at the chimere of being able to do my job in china without a minimum of 1 month in house/hotel arrest at my cost
Of choosing to go holidaying outside my house, then 50km radius then state for the last 3 months, or being actually unable to leave this country wo breaking laws.
Chimère.. .

This actually has a great effect on personal preservation of wealth, let alone way of actually increasing it by such a simple thing as work.
If that is not a reset, what is and we are now 6 months on with no end in sight

 

[qldfrog]

Reset: looking at positive.
Due to the virus and the haste in finding results, a lot of the redtape applyingvto medical research is being lifted.
While not keen in having that first pseudo vaccine injected, it means we can expect faster developments in medicine and so expect big progress hopefully revolutionary non incremental ones.
May not be related to covid19..who cares
And crisis and upheaval is also a positive for startups new ideas
Weakening the status quo of existing majors bloated but influencial, this only works if the free market rules are respected..and so far they are not in most domains.but this may change.

 

[sptrawler]

This actually has a great effect on personal preservation of wealth, let alone way of actually increasing it by such a simple thing as work.
If that is not a reset, what is and we are now 6 months on with no end in sight

So true frog.
Everyone who was stretched, has now snapped or shrunk their exposure, most asset classes have devalued. Whether this is permanent or short term, time will tell.
Getting loans might be the next major problem, bank balance sheets must be stretched and proving job security might be problematic.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So true frog.
Everyone who was stretched, has now snapped or shrunk their exposure, most asset classes have devalued. Whether this is permanent or short term, time will tell.
Getting loans might be the next major problem, bank balance sheets must be stretched and proving job security might be problematic.

From my estimation of the health and pandemic news it may come down to a matter of surviving both physically and economically the Covid-19 outbreak and then looking up to again to see a way forward.

We are in a combination of the end of an economic cycle and a pandemic. This appears to me to be equivalent to to a superimposed Great Depression and WW2 effect.

The market reaction is smoke and mirrors perpetuated by the Orange Fool in the US printing $Trillions. It's not real.

Many of the jobs people did will not be there come November and many of the health industry hype is just that hype. There will only be 2-3 vaccines at most developed which are effective and available. And probably not until 2021.

Medications don't work to any meaningful degree I am told by my doctor for coronavirus which is a cold virus which is why we get so many colds.

Anyway I'm still predicting the mother of all lows for stocks probably in October which as it happens is the month before the US elections. Wall St. leads.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

From my estimation of the health and pandemic news it may come down to a matter of surviving both physically and economically the Covid-19 outbreak and then looking up to again to see a way forward.

We are in a combination of the end of an economic cycle and a pandemic. This appears to me to be equivalent to to a superimposed Great Depression and WW2 effect.

The market reaction is smoke and mirrors perpetuated by the Orange Fool in the US printing $Trillions. It's not real.

Many of the jobs people did will not be there come November and many of the health industry hype is just that hype. There will only be 2-3 vaccines at most developed which are effective and available. And probably not until 2021.

Medications don't work to any meaningful degree I am told by my doctor for coronavirus which is a cold virus which is why we get so many colds.

Anyway I'm still predicting the mother of all lows for stocks probably in October which as it happens is the month before the US elections. Wall St. leads.

gg

Even more negative than you as i am convinced with plenty of valid reasons that we will have no vaccine.
But your point is true, not that the virus is that nasty but after 13y of kicking the can, at long last, we will have the needed reset, sadly it is heavily coupled with societal changes and manipulation
We needed a pretext covid it will be
In a way, it is lucky that the trigger is such a benign illness.
We are at risk daily of a solar flare frying our electronics with no warning probabilities are very high for this to happen during our lifetime
If the world behaves like this with a bad influenza, what if we face real issues, starvation or real illness

 

[aus_trader]

Found this interesting article in regards to devaluing currencies and some of the consequences...


https://www.theage.com.au/business/...world-s-reserve-currency-20200729-p55gja.html

 

[Sdajii]

It's not surprising this thread has mostly been off topic, despite the opening request.

In short, I think that assuming your assumptions are correct, and a disturbing amount of them might be, it is likely to be somewhat akin to finding how best to advise Winston in Nineteen Eighty-four how to best deal with the situation.

 

[qldfrog]

I have a personal very negative view on what is happening but realise how futile resistance is.
Truely astonished by even reasonably intelligent and educated able to be manipulated so easily whereas facts and figures are available for all to see
So how do you/ I navigate this sad new world and avoid becoming an economic casualty, potentially even profiting from it
The pillars of economic wellness:in our new world:
Income: jobkeeper/jobseeker
Knowledge: education:in trading,languages for escape
Investment: silver PM and unseizable assets
Compounding returns..well not in term deposit or bonds
Diversification : well ,have to take that with a grain of salt, but currencies at least
Using other people money:
Loans.. so hard for me to do that.need to unlearn
Last ones: enjoy but do not own
Lease,company or trust structure.

Family stability. Lockdown does not help

What am i missing?

 

[wayneL]

Likewise Mon Ami.

My approach:

Seriously considering getting out of Dodge as we've discussed elsewhere. If not out of Oz, at least away from cities.

PMs, Crypto (and other commodities as opportunities arise) and shortening my trading horizon in equities. Keeping a close eye on other currencies.

Preparing for whatever inf-deflationary world were moving into and figuring out how to maintain or increase non financial income.

Keep some powder dry

 

[rederob]

What am i missing?

France?

 

[qldfrog]

France?

You would fit perfectly Rob, Seriously: you should consider it
Perfect food and landscape, and ideology 100% within your line

So obviously not missing it, the less i know about it the less i want to cry..
And from anger, not sorrow or homesickness