Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The recession has started?

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gfresh said:
hmmm... first impression was that isn't that much, however, ABS: 481,700 people unemployed July 08 .. 4210 / 481700 = 0.874% more technically added to the unemployment que. :cautious:

Although of course those won't shown up in figures for many weeks, and of course they may find other work.

Few economists today disputing the figures as not truly reflective however, saying they've greatly reduced the sample size, giving inaccurate projection.

Here are 40 more: http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/commun...telco-arm-closed/0,130061791,339291113,00.htm

Reckon you'd have to add at least a few hundred in realestate agencies, and property development for now, and in the next 6 months.

Probably advertising agencies are also feeling the squeeze, as businesses cut back on spending there too.

All the non-bank lenders must really be cutting back too on staff, looking at this week's property financing figures. Hate to think how many there.
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You have to see that I am trying to make a conservative account, you see I have Qantas with the 500 layoffs but they say that they will layoff upto 1500 which will addan extra 1000 people in one hit.
 
Warren Buffet II said:
Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?

Layoffs

Starbucks 700
Don Smallgoods 640
South Pacific Tyres 600
Holden Fishersman Bend 530
Qantas 500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink 20
IAG 600
Suncorp 60
NIB 40
SPC Ardmona (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado 10
Property developers 100 (estimate)
Constellation Brands 350
Elders 70
Optima 50

Grand Total = 4330 :eek:
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[/QUOTE]



Shouldn’t we deduct from the figure new employment?

Say for example there was Dinosaur Zoo, so employees would have to move on after Dinosaurs died, apologies for crude example.
 
happy said:
Shouldn’t we deduct from the figure new employment?

Say for example there was Dinosaur Zoo, so employees would have to move on after Dinosaurs died, apologies for crude example.
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Happy, I am more than happy for you to do that, get some facts and put them in a list. Remember to put the ones from Dinosaur Zoo once they find a job at Your Zoo ;). I ´ll keep doing my layoffs one.

WBII
 
Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?

Layoffs

Starbucks 700
Don Smallgoods 640
South Pacific Tyres 600
Holden Fishersman Bend 530
Qantas 500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink 20
IAG 600
Suncorp 60
NIB 40
SPC Ardmona (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado 10
Property developers 100 (estimate)
Constellation Brands 350
Elders 70
Optima 50
Commander 2000

Grand Total = 6330

This is becoming an everyday event now. scary stuff.

WBII
 
Shouldn’t we deduct from the figure new employment?

Say for example there was Dinosaur Zoo, so employees would have to move on after Dinosaurs died, apologies for crude example.[/QUOTE]
I follow what you're saying, but big layoffs becoming a regular event are one of the most classic signs of a serious downturn and identifying that is the point of this thead.

Sure, businesses close and people lose their jobs all the time. But when you start getting a constant stream of significant (big enough to make the news) jobs being lost then that's historically been a damn good sign that we're in a downturn.
 
Minara Resources sacked 20% of their employees last week. I wonder how many was that?

So, for those who believe that the mining boom will go forever and the skill shortage doesn't have a solution in that industry, there you go, you have now some people ready to work in those areas and we can see is what has happened before, prices start to decline and mines just become unviable.

More to come for sure.
 
Warren Buffet II said:
Happy, I am more than happy for you to do that, get some facts and put them in a list. Remember to put the ones from Dinosaur Zoo once they find a job at Your Zoo ;). I ´ll keep doing my layoffs one.

WBII
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I am happy to see just one side of the story as I have no idea where to look for new employment figures, maybe there is nothing to find :)
 
What worries me most about resources is that "resources will save us" has become the dominant economic mantra of recent years. It's to the point where everyone from uni students to retirees seems to believe it.

And when something economic becomes so widely believed, especially when it's in the "keep going forever" category, history says it ends in disaster.

In my opinion heavy reliance on resources simply leverages us to the world economy as a whole. Great when there's a boom, but when the inevitable recession occurs globally...:eek:
 
RBA warns 100,000 jobs at risk from economic slowdown

Australia's central bank expects the economy to generate barely 80,000 new positions, with jobs growth of just 0.75 per cent failing to match the forecast rise in the number of jobseekers.

"With the rate of employment growth expected to remain below that of the working-age population, the unemployment rate is expected to rise," the RBA said in its quarterly economic review yesterday. The bank warned there were already signs that demand for labour was falling.


But unemployment would rise by as much as 175,000 if growth in the number of job-seekers keeps rising at the same rate as in recent years


See the Australian link today
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24165909-601,00.html
 
RBA warns 100,000 jobs at risk from economic slowdown

Australia's central bank expects the economy to generate barely 80,000 new positions, with jobs growth of just 0.75 per cent failing to match the forecast rise in the number of jobseekers.

"With the rate of employment growth expected to remain below that of the working-age population, the unemployment rate is expected to rise," the RBA said in its quarterly economic review yesterday. The bank warned there were already signs that demand for labour was falling.


But unemployment would rise by as much as 175,000 if growth in the number of job-seekers keeps rising at the same rate as in recent years


See the Australian link today
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24165909-601,00.html
 
kingbrown said:
RBA warns 100,000 jobs at risk from economic slowdown

Australia's central bank expects the economy to generate barely 80,000 new positions, with jobs growth of just 0.75 per cent failing to match the forecast rise in the number of jobseekers.

"With the rate of employment growth expected to remain below that of the working-age population, the unemployment rate is expected to rise," the RBA said in its quarterly economic review yesterday. The bank warned there were already signs that demand for labour was falling.


But unemployment would rise by as much as 175,000 if growth in the number of job-seekers keeps rising at the same rate as in recent years


See the Australian link today
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24165909-601,00.html
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I bet that figure doesnt take in to account the few hundred thousand Immigrants arriving to take your jobs for a lower price ;)
 
Commodities will thay take Australia down ?

Here's the lateset talk coming from the RBA
Re: commodities boom or Gloom


THE Reserve Bank has slashed its forecasts for growth in both Australia and the region, signalling it will cut interest rates to support the economy.


[SIZE="2"]The bank is increasingly concerned that the world economy is caught in a vicious cycle that could bring an end to the commodities boom. "Any further deterioration in the outlook for global growth would represent a significant downside risk to the domestic activity profile, particularly if it led to a marked slowing in growth in China and India," the bank said in its quarterly review of the economy. [/SIZE]
"This could lead to a significant deterioration in the outlook for the Australian economy and commodity markets."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24165906-20142,00.html
 
Europe and Japanese slowdown is worse for Australia directly than the US. As an example, attached is a chart from BHP showing where it's export dollars come from. As can be seen, the US is only a small sliver, but Europe and Japan make up nearly 1/3. China makes up 1/5, where much of the demand is driven by building export products for the Europe, and the US.

As most know, resource prices are taking a tumble (look up zinc,lead, aluminum, nickel, gold on kitco, it's across the board), and these things don't reverse quickly. This year's net profit still likely to be very good for Rio & BHP, however next 12 is likely to be a significant reduction in profits. As a few large miners contribute billions to the GDP of the country, the flow-on effect on the entire economy is not insignificant, and the full effects may not come through until 6-12 months.

Government was boasting just 6 months ago how many billions it was going to have in surplus over the next few years, but I bet you these weren't taking into account a massive reduction in the resource prices (and the big majors) that makes up these profits.
 

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numbercruncher said:
I bet that figure doesnt take in to account the few hundred thousand Immigrants arriving to take your jobs for a lower price ;)
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Would be a thought to see how big the numbers really are in immigration ??
According to SMH
its around 300,000 odd per year :eek:
when you include Kiwis Over stayed visa's and students
All hungry for work and housing
http://www.smh.com.au/news/paul-sheehan/the-challenge-of-migration/2008/08/03/1217701846375.html

Would be an idea if some one could verify this ?
If so Aussie kids about to leave school in the next few years
may find it really hard ?
 

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