The recession has started?

[Sith1s]

If you're talking about un/employent i may be able to confirm a few things.

Working in recruitment i haven't had so many candidates (people looking for work) on my books in a long time. Especially when i compare it to how it was last year.

Alot of my key clients (warehousing/distribution) are very slow and only have 1/4 of the casuals compared to last year. Things could change next week when KRudd hands out that bonus to everyone, but i don't see it happening.

 

[arco]

Toxic wife and Toxic Assets: When the Money Goes get Ready for Divorce.

Leave it to the sense and sensibility of the United Kingdom to talk about the gold-digging wives that are now leaving their high income husbands for greener pastures. This isn’t an uncommon thing. We have witnessed high profile celebrities and athletes fall from grace only to see their “loved one” depart once things got bad. That for better or for worse simply reflected the better aspect of life. At the same time, many of these high powered men knew exactly what they were getting into when they married. Let us take a look at a wonderful article in the Telegraph discussing this new emerging phenomenon:

“(Telegraph) You loser!” screamed Katie, aiming a vase at her husband. “You’ve destroyed my life,” she continued, hurling it.”Just look at my hair, look at my nails! You loser, you jerk, you nobody.”

Katie’s husband, Jack, whose property portfolio disintegrated in the financial crash, had just told his wife that she would have to cut back on her thrice-weekly visits to Nicky Clarke, the nail salon in Harvey Nichols, and the oxygen facials, chemical peels and seaweed wraps at Space NK.”

Lovely. All the money in the world and still no piece of mind. Talk about a royal mess. Oxygen facials? Isn’t that like driving really fast with your head out the window? Yet there is one group that is enjoying this upsurge in financial destruction. Divorce attorneys:

“Indeed, lawyers and financial advisers have reported a 50 per cent increase in the number of divorce inquiries since the financial markets collapsed in September.

A recent survey conducted by community website makefriendsonline revealed that a third of 10,000 respondents believe that financial hardship will cause a relationship to fail, while matrimonial law specialists Mishcon de Reya have reported up to 300 per cent more inquiries.”

Even in the U.S. financial troubles are the number one cause for divorce. I would venture to say that when money is tight, you have to rely on other things that material wealth cannot purchase. Given our GDP is based on 71% consumption, little substance is there once the money is taken away for many.

Aside from divorce attorneys, you can also go long dating agencies which seem to be serving as a bridge loan for some of these gold-diggers looking to jump ship:

“”So why did she walk out on you?” I asked.

”She has a very high standard of living,” he said. ”She’s never taken the Tube or a bus; it’s always taxis. And she likes to eat out a lot, at the best restaurants, and she likes to buy expensive gifts for people she wants to impress.

“As soon as the financial wobbles started, she must have joined some upmarket dating agency because somehow she”s found another very rich man pretty damn fast.”

 

[numbercruncher]

Last night on a current affair they showed a car dealership in Vic about to auction off ALL its new stock NO RESERVE ! first time in Australian history ....

Also said that by next year at this stage 50pc of Aussie car dealerships wont be able to finance the cost of holding stock ! = mass unemployment .....


Good if you want a nice cheap car huh ?

Maybe all the unemployed Car salesmen can go sell realestate cause apparently that booms forever !

 

[moXJO]

Last night on a current affair they showed a car dealership in Vic about to auction off ALL its new stock NO RESERVE ! first time in Australian history ....

Also said that by next year at this stage 50pc of Aussie car dealerships wont be able to finance the cost of holding stock ! = mass unemployment .....


Good if you want a nice cheap car huh ?

Maybe all the unemployed Car salesmen can go sell realestate cause apparently that booms forever !

When I was in a car yard the other day one mentioned about financing with a shadow mortgage wasn't to sure or interested at the time of what that was.
A lot of the salesman seemed to have no idea of the current financial situation and funny enough one was telling me house prices have bottomed and everything will be going fantastic next year. There were plenty of cars I was not interested in that were going cheap

 

[gfresh]

If you want a large car or v8 the discounts are pretty large right now, especially from Holden. Many models/manufacturers they're not dropping as large as I'd like, so it's not across the board. Reading some of that over the last few weeks re car dealers, I was expecting them to offer crazy deals, but they weren't biting

Have to remember that the prices on the second hand market will also fall through the floor during a recession, as less buyers there too, so buying a new car isn't always a good idea unless depreciation isn't a concern.

 

[numbercruncher]

Yah my car has been hammered on depreciation, cost 30k 2 years ago, now its worth 15 - bright side is you see little depreciation from here out ...

 

[gfresh]

bump

December GDP numbers look like they'll turn a negative - Swan seems to be buttering people up to let out the news later this week.

I doubt this quarter will be any better at all when it comes out in a couple of months, so that would be officially a recession.

 

[dhukka]

bump

December GDP numbers look like they'll turn a negative - Swan seems to be buttering people up to let out the news later this week.

I doubt this quarter will be any better at all when it comes out in a couple of months, so that would be officially a recession.

Actually, given last week's capex numbers, there is a good chance 4Q08 will be positive and most probably better than 3Q08.

 

[Stormin_Norman]

we're not even close to the end. we're not even close to the beginning of the end. we're only at the end of the beginning.

credit contraction drops production. first stage (end of which we are now at)

drop in production contracts credit. second stage (beginning of which we are now at)

contraction in credit drops production. third stage (which will occur later this year)

eventually all the bad production will be cleaned out of the economy and growth will begin again. when will this happen?

when lenders start lending to capitalists with valid production proposals.

HOWEVER!!!****!!!!

will there be any credit for this when governments world wide are spending trillions of dollars of borrowed money?! governments are inefficient spenders of money. money they spent is money that is not available for capitalists to borrow.

government stimulus is making the situation worse, and will mire the world in the recession (and possibly depression) swamp for a long long time. it didnt work in the great depression (and many argue govt intervention is what caused it) and it wont work now.

anyone know about the 1890 recession? no? cause governments didnt interfere to make things worse.

 

[gfresh]

-0.5% for the December quarter.. halfway there folks

http://business.theage.com.au/business/recession-fear-as-gdp-shrinks-20090304-8nw6.html

The Australian economy contracted in the final three months of last year, surprising analysts and suggesting the nation will enter a recession this year.

Gross domestic product growth for the fourth quarter dipped 0.5%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said, following a 0.1% rise in the third quarter. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected the economy to grow by 0.2% in the fourth quarter.

 

[dhukka]

-0.5% for the December quarter.. halfway there folks

http://business.theage.com.au/business/recession-fear-as-gdp-shrinks-20090304-8nw6.html

Well there you go, capex numbers and Rudd's handouts were still not enough to eke out a positive number. Once again the RBA have egg on their faces.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Well there you go, capex numbers and Rudd's handouts were still not enough to eke out a positive number. Once again the RBA have egg on their faces.

..or worse, seeing as how they appear to have their heads stuck up their own bums. :arsch:

 

[Temjin]

And by reading the comments on news.com.au, you can see the sentiment is still not permisstic enough!

A lot of people still think we wouldn't be in a technical recession because of China, great banks, Kevin Rudd, etc, etc. They need a good dose of gloom and doom along with depression-inducing medicine before we can declare this is all over.

 

[metric]

And by reading the comments on news.com.au, you can see the sentiment is still not permisstic enough!

A lot of people still think we wouldn't be in a technical recession because of China, great banks, Kevin Rudd, etc, etc. They need a good dose of gloom and doom along with depression-inducing medicine before we can declare this is all over.

the majority of people have no idea what is to come.

 

[Aussiejeff]

And by reading the comments on news.com.au, you can see the sentiment is still not permisstic enough!

A lot of people still think we wouldn't be in a technical recession because of China, great banks, Kevin Rudd, etc, etc. They need a good dose of gloom and doom along with depression-inducing medicine before we can declare this is all over.

Amen to that!

There's nothing worse than this "death by a thousand cuts" inexorable grinding slide. Fer gawd's sake, will all yous optimists just SELL - NOW! - and help give my small cash stash potentially more "buying power" for 2010!

 

[Glen48]

This explains it all:
adult: "Our government borrows money every year."

child: "Where does the money come from? How can we always be in debt and not have to pay it off?"

adult: "We are in debt to ourselves."

child: "That doesn't make any sense!"

adult: "It is based on fractional reserve banking. Banks do not have to have all the money that they lend."

child: "That sounds silly! And why is the government bailing out the banks? Don't the banks already have all the money?"

adult: "The banks lent all their money to us, so they need more money from the government so they can continue lending to us."

child: "I still don't understand."

adult: "You'll understand it when you get older."

 

[moXJO]

Commercial construction in my area is dead and everyone is soaking up any domestic they can. The big companies seem to be desperately under cutting to keep their workers paid. Everyone seems to be cutting their quotes to a low price as competition is heating up. A lot of people getting laid off and money starting to get tight. I have been fine so far but some of the desperation from others is getting a little concerning. It wasn't that long ago that everything seemed fine. I only have two more decent sized projects left. And am being out quoted on a few jobs week in week out.

It can get quiet round this time of year though. Will be interesting to see the lead up to Christmas.