The recession has started?

gfresh · 4 August 2008

yelnats said:
It seems the RBA is blissfully unaware of what is happening in the real world until about 6 months after-the-fact and a good deal of our current malaise must be laid at their doorstep. Too many gung-ho rate hikes and not enough accountability on their part.

I am sure they are fully aware.. they just don't care about the common man and their problems as a result. Nobody queries when they are borrowing hell-for-leather below the long-term average rate, yet soon as they return closer to the average, nobody can cope.

In fact, no doubt they will feel (but probably never express), a recession is just part of the normal cycle, which corrects a few things that have got out of balance in the last decade. So in their eyes, probably a recession is not necessarily a bad thing for the longer-term prosperity of the country, which is their charter. To be honest, I think I maybe agree..

zolow · 4 August 2008

Warren Buffet II said:
Recession is knocking our doors, this is a nice list I got today:

Layoffs

Starbucks 700
Don Smallgoods 640
South Pacific Tyres 600
Holden Fishersman Bend 530
Qantas 500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink 20
IAG 600
Suncorp 60
NIB 40
SPC Ardmona (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado 10

Grand Total = 3760

Maybe these are just examples of companies being to optimistic and overshooting the mark, in terms of employment and capacity increases. Any one of these companies could have taken advantage of boom times and expanded as quick as they could in order to cope with demand and increase value for shareholders.

Now things are not going so great, so companies need to rationalise their organisational structure in order maintain shareholder value (or in some cases stay in business).

Anyway, I suppose my point is you don't know for sure whether these layoffs are because of recession or just poor management decisions when deciding how to expand their company. Perhaps the economy is just slowing down to more sustainable rates?

Just a thought

kingbrown · 4 August 2008

I think it has
As we see luxury items such as holidays, goods etc drop first in demmand

Re Heavy vehicles Rv's and Boats etc
Trucks cart all these goods around the country
And here's the worrying thing and they are the real Canary in the coal mine !!

Truck Prices have really started to tank
Used truck sales have come to a screaming halt
not just the large semi's but also all those taxi trucks
Reposessions are rolling in with no buyers

since may it's been amazing how quick things have declined
Its as if no one wants them now ?
Last month was the worst i have seen
Dealers are all jammed with over priced stock

Caravan industry is now in really bad shape

This time last year it was around a 6 month wait for a new van
Now caravan manufactures are begging for work many have
now run out of work
Call one and you will get instant delivery !

Tour operators are going to the wall also with a double hit
high fuel and high dollar !

In our industrial area nth of Melb one found it hard to find a factory
12 months ago
Now one has the choice for over 220 factories in one suburb alone
most are vacant and yes the spec builders are still building more
Not for long imo

Would be good to hear from anyone that knows the boat industry
i would like to hear their recent sales experiences ?
Also i have heard bad reports from the furniture industry would be good to hear from some manufactures or importers ?

white_goodman · 4 August 2008

Warren Buffet II said:
Recession is knocking our doors, this is a nice list I got today:

Layoffs

Starbucks 700
Don Smallgoods 640
South Pacific Tyres 600
Holden Fishersman Bend 530
Qantas 500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink 20
IAG 600
Suncorp 60
NIB 40
SPC Ardmona (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado 10

Grand Total = 3760

So here you go, this is only what we know from newspapers, so we can be pretty sure much more has been happening behind the scene.

I was also reading some stuff about immigration this weekend and the current immigration rate is not covering for the outflow (people leaving) migration and the death rate, so we are pretty much growing from birth, which will stall once you got hit by recession.

I can only see this stopping once real estate prices stall for about 5 years (do not want to say fall because 99% of Australians think that prices do not fall, everyone is smart and pays only fair or below market price for their properties) and when I can get a decent plumber/electrician for about $20 per hour without the call-fee .

WBII

you could also add about 30 from Stockland head office, they even got rid of an entire department, their funds management division from what i heard...

also all the major property agencies have laid off about 30 or so a piece at head office (JLL, Colliers, Savills, CBRE etc)

skint · 4 August 2008

Warren Buffet II said:
Recession is knocking our doors, this is a nice list I got today:

Layoffs

Starbucks 700
Don Smallgoods 640
South Pacific Tyres 600
Holden Fishersman Bend 530
Qantas 500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink 20
IAG 600
Suncorp 60
NIB 40
SPC Ardmona (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado 10

Grand Total = 3760

So here you go, this is only what we know from newspapers, so we can be pretty sure much more has been happening behind the scene.

I was also reading some stuff about immigration this weekend and the current immigration rate is not covering for the outflow (people leaving) migration and the death rate, so we are pretty much growing from birth, which will stall once you got hit by recession.

I can only see this stopping once real estate prices stall for about 5 years (do not want to say fall because 99% of Australians think that prices do not fall, everyone is smart and pays only fair or below market price for their properties) and when I can get a decent plumber/electrician for about $20 per hour without the call-fee .

WBII

I agree where in or near a downturn/recession but population is still increasing.

From the Aust. Bureau of Statistics:

Population clock

On 4 August 2008 at 18:18:28 (Canberra time), the resident population of Australia is projected to be:

21,383,016
This projection is based on the estimated resident population at 31 December 2007 and assumes growth since then of:
one birth every 1 minute and 55 seconds,
one death every 3 minutes and 57 seconds,
a net gain of one international migrant every 2 minutes and 38 seconds leading to
an overall total population increase of one person every 1 minute and 33 seconds.

overlap · 4 August 2008

Warren Buffet II said:
Recession is knocking our doors, this is a nice list I got today:
.
.
Starbucks 700
.
.
WBII

Starbucks are paying the price for a stupid business strategy based on a wrong reading of their potential market. Coffee drinkers aren't going to flock in masses to these places when better product is already available for the same price.

Little or nothing to do with a downturn. That might be the excuse.

white_goodman · 4 August 2008

overlap said:
Starbucks are paying the price for a stupid business strategy based on a wrong reading of their potential market. Coffee drinkers aren't going to flock in masses to these places when better product is already available for the same price.

Little or nothing to do with a downturn. That might be the excuse.

i never really drunk starbucks, what price did they charge for a regular coffee? whats gloria jeans prices in comparison?

Ageo · 4 August 2008

Well my dad is in the building game (bricklayer) and he has work for 2 yrs.

I guess it hasnt slowed down for him (its actually been busier than i can remember).

white_goodman · 4 August 2008

Ageo said:
Well my dad is in the building game (bricklayer) and he has work for 2 yrs.

I guess it hasnt slowed down for him (its actually been busier than i can remember).

i think the tradesman industry will be protected by a national skills shortage in a lot of areas, similar to mining i presume

robots · 4 August 2008

hello,

yes cashed up bogans are still going strong

thankyou
robots

nunthewiser · 4 August 2008

RIGHTEOUS!!! good to see a fellow cashed up bogan out there ....... bless us all

wildkactus · 4 August 2008

kingbrown said:
Would be good to hear from anyone that knows the boat industry
i would like to hear their recent sales experiences ?
Also i have heard bad reports from the furniture industry would be good to hear from some manufactures or importers ?

From talking to some of the dealers at shows, the industry is going strong at the top end but struggling at the bottom end.
Some of the High end brands have wait lists for up to 3 years or more, and money is being maded on short term leases / sales of second hand vessels until the new one arrives. It is a totally differnet story for the smaller lower end brands, with orders slowing or non existent.

The custom superyacht market is just getting out of control there is more orders now then ever before for these yachts 100 foot or more in size.

A couple off companies that have been in the news with layoffs.
Brunswick in the USA has laid off over 1000 staff and closed 2 brands.
Riviera has also laid off 200 staff this year and has said profit will be down.

you can get more info here. www.ibinews.com

CanOz · 5 August 2008

MRC & Co said:
Are you talking about a budget suplus/deficit, or trade surplus/deficit?

Many opinions, which are just that.

According to a very close family member of mine, he could run the economy far better than it currently is, easy to be an arm chair economist with little clue of how it actually functions. In reality it is FAR FAR FAR more complex than anybody could imagine. After years of study, I still have little clue on many specific areas. Try learning about something as simple as the over-night money market.

I spent weeks perusing the RBA site and still could barely make heads or tails of it. I recieved a High Distinction on a piece on it years back, simpy because a lecturer knew just as little!

I think economists who actually know how the economy works are few and far between, I would say there are only a handful worldwide and even then, they would be specialists in one area. Talk about a complex and chaotic system!

I was thinking about the US budget deficit, but they currently have a trade deficit in the same region according the last Economist i checked, 800 Billion?

Its true I'm certainly nothing more than an armchair economist and an amateurish one at that MRC. Even what I've learned in the last couple of years has only been through a keen interest in the markets. In fact the only fundamental information i pay attention to is macro economic.

It is really interesting to listen to guys like Roubini as they criticize Big Ben and HP for their work, but yet you've got to wonder if they would really have the political gonads to carry out firm fiscal management in these times.

Personally i like Chuck Butler and his opinions, years of watching the currency markets makes him an interesting read every day.

So, may we always have arm chair economists to enlighten and stimulate debate among us!

Cheers,

CanOz

wayneL · 5 August 2008

CanOz said:
I was thinking about the US budget deficit, but they currently have a trade deficit in the same region according the last Economist i checked, 800 Billion?

Its true I'm certainly nothing more than an armchair economist and an amateurish one at that MRC. Even what I've learned in the last couple of years has only been through a keen interest in the markets. In fact the only fundamental information i pay attention to is macro economic.

It is really interesting to listen to guys like Roubini as they criticize Big Ben and HP for their work, but yet you've got to wonder if they would really have the political gonads to carry out firm fiscal management in these times.

Personally i like Chuck Butler and his opinions, years of watching the currency markets makes him an interesting read every day.

So, may we always have arm chair economists to enlighten and stimulate debate among us!

Cheers,

CanOz

The thing is, us armchair economists have been much better at forecasting than the "real" ones. Political/commercial expediencies at play, perhaps.

ROE · 5 August 2008

Interesting .. all doom and gloom but he has valid point about debt level

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200808/s2324011.htm

Julia · 5 August 2008

ROE said:
Interesting .. all doom and gloom but he has valid point about debt level

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/items/200808/s2324011.htm

Thanks, ROE. And yes about the debt level.
I notice, though, that he is somewhat covering himself by refusing to commit as to interest rates and noting that you can't draw complete conclusions on the figures so far.

Warren Buffet II · 7 August 2008

Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?

Layoffs

Starbucks 700
Don Smallgoods 640
South Pacific Tyres 600
Holden Fishersman Bend 530
Qantas 500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink 20
IAG 600
Suncorp 60
NIB 40
SPC Ardmona (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado 10
Property developers 100 (estimate)
Constellation Brands 350

Grand Total = 4210

gfresh · 8 August 2008

hmmm... first impression was that isn't that much, however, ABS: 481,700 people unemployed July 08 .. 4210 / 481700 = 0.874% more technically added to the unemployment que.

Although of course those won't shown up in figures for many weeks, and of course they may find other work.

Few economists today disputing the figures as not truly reflective however, saying they've greatly reduced the sample size, giving inaccurate projection.

Here are 40 more: http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/commun...telco-arm-closed/0,130061791,339291113,00.htm

Reckon you'd have to add at least a few hundred in realestate agencies, and property development for now, and in the next 6 months.

Probably advertising agencies are also feeling the squeeze, as businesses cut back on spending there too.

All the non-bank lenders must really be cutting back too on staff, looking at this week's property financing figures. Hate to think how many there.

So_Cynical · 8 August 2008

Warren Buffet II said:
Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?

Layoffs

Starbucks 700
Don Smallgoods 640
South Pacific Tyres 600
Holden Fishersman Bend 530
Qantas 500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink 20
IAG 600
Suncorp 60
NIB 40
SPC Ardmona (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado 10
Property developers 100 (estimate)
Constellation Brands 350

Grand Total = 4210

Add to that 30 staff at Elders.
http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/commun...telco-arm-closed/0,130061791,339291113,00.htm

and about 50 at Optima....so far, could be 100
http://www.arnnet.com.au/index.php/id;466973485;fp;4194304;fpid;1

Warren Buffet II · 8 August 2008

Updated figure, it will keep climbing for sure. when are we getting to 10,000?

Layoffs

Starbucks 700
Don Smallgoods 640
South Pacific Tyres 600
Holden Fishersman Bend 530
Qantas 500 (up to 1500)
QantasLink 20
IAG 600
Suncorp 60
NIB 40
SPC Ardmona (CocaCola) 60 (plus a large reduction of seasonal workers)
Colorado 10
Property developers 100 (estimate)
Constellation Brands 350
Elders 70
Optima 50

Grand Total = 4330 [/QUOTE]

The recession has started?

gfresh

zolow

kingbrown

white_goodman

BOC

skint

overlap

white_goodman

BOC

Ageo

white_goodman

BOC

robots

hello

nunthewiser

wildkactus

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

ROE

Julia

In Memoriam

Warren Buffet II

gfresh

So_Cynical

The Contrarian Averager

Warren Buffet II

Similar threads

The recession has started?

BOC

BOC

BOC

hello

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

In Memoriam

The Contrarian Averager

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency