Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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keithj said:
I could be wrong.... but looking a bit deeper into that story, he also holds a lot of Calls (although only about a 1/3rd as many). So it may be a simple volatility strategy... might go up... might go down.

Also, the disclosure is dated 6 weeks ago.
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Yeah you cannot read anything into positions like that. They are almost always not a directional bet.
 
I don't know what is going on over there in the states.
But 2 days ago all of a sudden all the big wigs were talking the market down. They had all been bullish literally up to the day before.
But suddenly it was all time to be very cautious and spread the load and that sort of thing.
It really was quite bazaar like they had all had a whisper.

Low and behold we have had a third negative day on the US markets.
None were long term bearish but they were all singing this tune with nothing that has materially changed to indicate a correction. No new news or event or anything.
Sure we have just started an earnings reporting season, which can always make for some wildness but still.
The only sentence that seemed to make sense to me on it all was one that went something like this -
The street has been bearish whilst the market has recovered, but now the street is showing signs of bullishness so the market is turning cautious.
Presumably had a lot to do with the 6.1% backward indicator of employment
 
notting said:
I don't know what is going on over there in the states.
But 2 days ago all of a sudden all the big wigs were talking the market down. They had all been bullish literally up to the day before.
But suddenly it was all time to be very cautious and spread the load and that sort of thing.
It really was quite bazaar like they had all had a whisper.

Low and behold we have had a third negative day on the US markets.
None were long term bearish but they were all singing this tune with nothing that has materially changed to indicate a correction. No new news or event or anything.
Sure we have just started an earnings reporting season, which can always make for some wildness but still.
The only sentence that seemed to make sense to me on it all was one that went something like this -
The street has been bearish whilst the market has recovered, but now the street is showing signs of bullishness so the market is turning cautious.
Presumably had a lot to do with the 6.1% backward indicator of employment
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liquidity as well....its the summer dolldrums as well....
 
seriously, i would be more
"ukrainian doing it to escalate the blame on russia"
And using the Sun is a nice way to see how the "people" aka common lowest denominator will react
not that Truth would need to be considered;
you know like the chemical weapons in ...
you name it
Both sides have interest in this, and Russia whatever you might think, may be a little morer subtle in its way to hit back at both Europe/US, but in any case as both warring factions are vodka fuelled, anything could have happened.
That will not help the dead or their relatives.
RIP
 
Oh I can get you there.
Russia armed Mao to get the Reds in in China.
They are callusing because they thought the US was rooted in the crisis.
They are pissed because the recovery is looking very real.
So they tried to draw the Yanks into middle east again, to beggar them, with chemical weapons in Syria.
US didn't take the bait.
So they invaded Crimea.
US responded moderately with sanctions.
They got China to start ramming boats in the South China Sea.
Not much reaction from US.
So they got the mad Arabs to start rocketing Israel to get the oil going (Russian Income and harm to recovery) and world jumpy.
US fairly quiet.
Finally up the rockets and down a civilian plane.
Gloves off.
Communists.
:D
 
So all the commodities markets are basically collapsing, which is being exacerbated by the strength in the US$.
But Gold is showing signs of strength.
Does this spell anything to you?
 
This spells to me, that commodities are very close to their temporary bottoms, and US dollar near it's temporary top. The multimonth countertrend moves in these markets are imminent.
 
rimtas said:
This spells to me, that commodities are very close to their temporary bottoms, and US dollar near it's temporary top. The multimonth countertrend moves in these markets are imminent.
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How do we interpret your use of the word "temporary" in this post please Rimtas? Does it simply mean that anything can happen from this point?

Multmonth countertrend?

Are you able to be more specific please?

Rick
 
Temporary means temporary.
US Dollar is in a long term uptrend and commodities are in 20year bear market, both started in 2010 just different directions. All moves against main trend will be corrective in nature and depending on time taken the main trend will resume in those markets later. Us dollar will reach triple digit territory, and commodities will decline further after a relief rally that could take months or even years. I expect oil will climb back to $80-90, gold to $1500.
There is no reason to panic, ASX is not tanking, it is just correcting the previous move from 2012.
 
rimtas said:
There is no reason to panic, ASX is not tanking, it is just correcting the previous move from 2012.
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The time to panic (short everything) is when oil hits $150 like when the GFC began. Right now low oil is the best stimulus for Europe and weak Asian economies.
The problem for Australia is that all we really have to offer the world is commodities apart from housing commission flats with lipstick.
 
rimtas said:
Temporary means temporary.
US Dollar is in a long term uptrend and commodities are in 20year bear market, both started in 2010 just different directions. All moves against main trend will be corrective in nature and depending on time taken the main trend will resume in those markets later. Us dollar will reach triple digit territory, and commodities will decline further after a relief rally that could take months or even years. I expect oil will climb back to $80-90, gold to $1500.
There is no reason to panic, ASX is not tanking, it is just correcting the previous move from 2012.
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Thanks for the additional comments Rimtas. I appreciate your observations.

Regards
 
Just wanted to let everyone know that the company ZipTel, ASX code (ZIP) is being investigated by ASIC.

SO, potential investors should be careful buying their shares.
 
First it was the end of coal.
Then it was the end of uranium.
Then it was the end of rare earths.
Then it was the end of gold.
Then it was the end of copper.
Then it was the end of iron.
Then it was the end of oil.
It's the end of the world! :eek::D
 
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