Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Hoorah!

"No tank today,
The slump has gone away,
The DOW is climbing fast,
Is this too good to last?"

Yup. The :santa: Rally has arrived, kiddies.

Enjoy.....

:chimney
 
Everything is upside down.. there is more volatility to the upside than the downside.

♫Strange days indeed, most peculiar momma♫
 
wayneL said:
Everything is upside down.. there is more volatility to the upside than the downside.

♫Strange days indeed, most peculiar momma♫
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Does that mean we get there quicker and come back slowly

Always something happening and nothing going on
 
McCoy Pauley said:
Funnily enough, Alan Kohler has been warning subscribers to the Eureka Report since last Saturday that he foresees a very big correction in equities early in 2012.
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I am personally bullish for 2012 and will look for signs of healthy breadth before entering in January.

However I've been watching the AUD money market spreads, (i.e. Dec 3M AUDLIBOR vs Jan 3M AUDLIBOR vs Feb 3M AUDLIBOR vs March 3M AUDLIBOR) and clearly something has been stinking up Aussie markets since June/July 2011.

It's been interesting to observe countries with twisted money markets (AUDLIBOR, EURIBOR, Short Sterling, Brazil, India) have their respective stock indices relatively well below their 200MAs vs the US which seems to have a normal Eurodollar market at the moment and *relatively* well performing stock index. I guess you could call it "classic credit deflation", when the banks loan less money into the economy, the market prices that right in.

For readers interest I looked up the AUD 3M LIBOR vs AUD 3M Gov yield, you can see things aren't looking pretty. Bond yields down means bond prices up, so when Gov rate is outperforming the AUDLIBOR (interbank yield) it means Aus banks are being much more cautious lending to each other and stocking their short term capital in "risk free" govvy cash.

Screen Shot 2011-12-21 at 8.27.19 PM.png

EDIT: Compare current conditions on the above spread versus how it looked May 2010 when the flash crash was happening and AUDUSD lost 10%...not a blip on this chart. Todays conditions are much more serious.

If you were curious, on Jun 30 govs were yielding 4.7ish and AUDLIBOR at 4.8ish. Today govs yielding 3.1ish and AUDLIBOR yielding 4.6ish. AUDLIBOR yields have actually gone up since the start of Dec compared to yields in 3M ausgovs which have *collapsed*.
Screen Shot 2011-12-21 at 8.47.36 PM.png

This is just plain stinky behaviour, ripe for violent swings and big gaps.
 
I think what the ECB did was about as smart a thing as possible under the circumstances.
We could be in for another 2009 like bounce.
The republicans may try to pull something out of the hat to skittle it so they can talk down Obamas economics record but that will be hard to achieve wiithout egging themselves.
 
So how is every one feeling now.

Are people still worried or is it Happy days again.

How do people feel about decisions they have made over the past 3 months.
 
Tysonboss1 said:
So how is every one feeling now.

Are people still worried or is it Happy days again.

How do people feel about decisions they have made over the past 3 months.
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I feel no better.. Job cuts, worlds bank cutting global forcasts to 2.6%.. Greece default nearing again, it feels like the bubbles about to burst..

I am trying to minimise my exposure to Europe and globally if anything, fundamentally Australia is a strong economy but this time if we see GFC2 it wont be a "technical" recession..

At the end of the day the markets are trading on news day to day..
 
I've got a feeling that we may see one more big pull back in possibly feb/march and maybe the printing press will officially turn on. Yeah its going to kick the can down the road, but its going to make it much easier to trade when this market finally finds a trend rather then trading in this current sideways range.
 
6figures said:
I feel no better.. Job cuts, worlds bank cutting global forcasts to 2.6%.. Greece default nearing again, it feels like the bubbles about to burst..

I am trying to minimise my exposure to Europe and globally if anything, fundamentally Australia is a strong economy but this time if we see GFC2 it wont be a "technical" recession..

At the end of the day the markets are trading on news day to day..
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I feel as though everyones a step ahead.

$500b for IMF np. More monetary easing from China? No prob. Will happen soon.

Wait till the end of Feb when Greece starts hitting the news again :)
 
6figures said:
I feel no better.. Job cuts, worlds bank cutting global forcasts to 2.6%.. Greece default nearing again, it feels like the bubbles about to burst..

I am trying to minimise my exposure to Europe and globally if anything, fundamentally Australia is a strong economy but this time if we see GFC2 it wont be a "technical" recession..

At the end of the day the markets are trading on news day to day..
Click to expand...

I am Still pretty bullish, just as I was 3 months ago.

I am a glass half full type of guy, When I see the Employment figures I see 95% employment rather than the 5% unemplyment, and I see 2.6% growth as OK,
 
adamim1 said:
I've got a feeling that we may see one more big pull back in possibly feb/march
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I hope so, I sold heaps of puts throughout the recent down turn which have made some good returns, But I didn't actually load up on much stock, I was saving my capital to load up should my puts get exercised, I just hope I get another chance to sell another round of puts or take some stock.
 
Tysonboss1 said:
I am Still pretty bullish, just as I was 3 months ago.

I am a glass half full type of guy, When I see the Employment figures I see 95% employment rather than the 5% unemplyment, and I see 2.6% growth as OK,
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I agree to an extent, however how bullish are you? are you willing to put a majority of your capital into the market at this point in time?

I see this time as an opportunity to really pick up the value stocks at a good price.. but I would rather pick up a value stock when the market is stable and trending away from these volatile markets.

Also bearing in mind that 5% unemployment is in Australia, and if you rely on that particular data to be bullish it is mearly a lagging indicator... with job cuts announced across major banks, I think we are yet to see the full extent of this crisis. I think you need to take into consideration employment figures world wide... Spain 21.5%? US 9.1%? Greece 18%?

The markets react daily to profit news, ratings cuts, unemployment data, etc.. until we know for sure that the Euro has stopped kicking this can down the road we can only speculate..
 
6figures said:
are you willing to put a majority of your capital into the market at this point in time?

..
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The majority of my capital ( outside of my business and property assets) is in the market.

I have some cash ready to deploy if I need to, I have been sitting on this incase some of the deep out of the money puts I was selling got exercised.

My cash holdings are probably only about 20% of the size of my equity holdings,
 
Tysonboss1 said:
I am Still pretty bullish, just as I was 3 months ago.

I am a glass half full type of guy, When I see the Employment figures I see 95% employment rather than the 5% unemplyment, and I see 2.6% growth as OK,
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To be pedantic, it's 95% employment of those wanting to work and due to fiddles with the statistics, you're a worker if you work one hour a week. You need to take into account the participation rate, which is falling (never a good sign, because it means people are giving up looking for work).
 
Tysonboss1 said:
So how is every one feeling now.

Are people still worried or is it Happy days again.

How do people feel about decisions they have made over the past 3 months.
Click to expand...

I couldn't be happier myself. Back in November 2011 when the All Ords nearly hit 4,000 I topped up on a stock and since then it paid a nice dividend. All the other stocks that I hold kept on paying those dividend's as well (December is a very good Month for that). Now I have accumulated surplus cash and I am waiting for that correction to 3,800 to deploy but it hasn't come. Originally I was going to wait until 3800 but it was too good to refuse at 4000. Apart from property I am 50% shares and 50% cash, waiting, waiting and waiting for that supposed crash.:D
 
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