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The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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nulla nulla said:
Aparrently Standard and Poors has indicated it may downgrade Germany.

Seriously, who rates the agencies?
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Not just Germany, but 14 others as well....

.

Standard & Poor’s said Germany and France may be stripped of their AAA credit ratings as the debt crisis prompts 15 euro nations to be put on review for possible downgrade.

The euro area’s six AAA rated countries are among the nations to be placed on a negative outlook, and their credit ratings may be cut depending on the result of a summit of European Union leaders on Dec. 9, S&P said today in a statement. The euro reversed its gains and U.S. Treasuries rose earlier today after the Financial Times reported that the credit-ranking firm planned to reduce six AAA outlooks.

“Systemic stress in the eurozone has risen in recent weeks and reached such a level that a review of all eurozone sovereign ratings is warranted,” S&P said in a statement.

The downgrade warnings come as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy push for a rewrite of the EU’s governing rules to tighten economic cooperation in a demonstration of unity on ending the debt crisis. With the fate of the currency shared by the 17 euro countries at risk, Merkel and Sarkozy presented a common platform for a Dec. 8-9 summit of EU leaders in Brussels that aims to halt the crisis now in its third year.

“The S&P move is yet another signal that euro area countries must take decisive action to deal with the crisis or else the problems will spread from Greece and others with the most acute fiscal problems to the rest of the euro zone,” said Phillip Swagel, a professor of economics at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy who was an assistant secretary for economic policy in the George W. Bush administration. “It is time for Germany and France to act -- either to save Greece and the others or to let them fail.”

Germany, Belgium

The firm said that ratings could be cut by one level for Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, Netherlands and Luxembourg, and by up to two notches for the other governments.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ions-on-downgrade-watch-over-debt-crisis.html

Mr Market says "meh...."

Ratings agencies lost ALL credibility after GFC1 blew up in their smug faces....

IMO
 
nulla nulla said:
Aparrently Standard and Poors has indicated it may downgrade Germany.

Seriously, who rates the agencies?
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There are many many financial contracts, mandates etc that contain clauses related to credit agency ratings. I think European nation's contribution to ECB and EFSF are also dependent on credit ratings.

So while most individuals would think these agencies are a joke... there are real and substantial implications stemming from the rating.
 
Aussiejeff said:
Mr Market says "meh...."IMO
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Market fell 1% in the space of about 30mins on the back of the ratings agencie rumour!

I heard an analogy this morning regarding the SP500.
They said the situation is like a huge poker game.
The traders are now all in and have called Euro to ‘show their cards this weekend’ being the pivotal last chance given the big synchronised intervention last week to stave off the Lehmans like freeze up of credit markets.

So if the traders are ‘all in’ betting that the news will be constructive and bond buying will commence shortly by a more transparent ECB intervention, will the market rally further given the traders are ‘all in’ already?

Buy the news sell the fact?

What do we think the traders will focus on at that point even if it seems better?
Let’s say the news is good. There is unity and the massive debt is going to be managed.:rolleyes:

Santa?

Down grades of Euroland regardless of the new unity.
The unity was the easy part and took only 15 emergency meatings to have a hand shake on a plan! The implementation may be slightly more bazaar and difficult!

On the previously positive part of the world.
China is slowing faster than planned for.

The Sundance bid is quite interesting. The Chinese of course could be playing poor to get a good deal, however, it is the first time I have seen a takeover bid put in doubt due to a China State owned bank rejecting a loan to a state controlled company bidding for a miner at a good price. One reason given was timing, ie the Chinese think commodities are not so urgently needed for a while!?

Just 2 weeks ago the Chinese, who tend to be quite good at commenting on the global economic outlook, stated that the Euro zone is headed for extreme recession .

With all the anticipated joy of Euroland unity this weekend, the price tag of enforced austerity measures all over the place and expected extreme negative growth, means less government income regardless of austerity. Couple that with difficulty of implementing unity and austerity.

Christmess?

:eek:
 
Sarkozy said during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we're going full steam ahead to re-establish confidence in the euro and the euro zone."

Oh yes. It's confidence that's required. No more of this unpalatable austerity stuff for my voters. We have Germany don't we Angela? There for we can be confident and everyone should be confident especially the Chinese should be confident in our bonds. I told them, 'Look, if we go down Germany goes down, that's not going to happen. What are you waiting for.'

Monties prooving to be a hero and a true leader, with no nonesense plan and renouncing his own salary, for a job he doesn't want but is doing out of a sense of duty. Cool. Very cool.
 
notting said:
Monties prooving to be a hero and a true leader, with no nonesense plan and renouncing his own salary, for a job he doesn't want but is doing out of a sense of duty. Cool. Very cool.
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Are you serious? Do you know the infinite quantities of money he is getting from Goldman Sachs right now?
 
notting said:
Sarkozy said during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we're going full steam ahead to re-establish confidence in the euro and the euro zone."

Oh yes. It's confidence that's required. No more of this unpalatable austerity stuff for my voters. We have Germany don't we Angela? There for we can be confident and everyone should be confident especially the Chinese should be confident in our bonds. I told them, 'Look, if we go down Germany goes down, that's not going to happen. What are you waiting for.'

Monties prooving to be a hero and a true leader, with no nonesense plan and renouncing his own salary, for a job he doesn't want but is doing out of a sense of duty. Cool. Very cool.
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Just thought I'd highlight the most important parts of that.... con waffle. After all, we ARE consumers, aren't we?

Hope you don't mind.

:D
 
Looks like reality is starting to bite hard in Europe and the U.S.

Be interesting to see how much we give back today on the xao. Not sure whether it will be a buy day for the next rebound or the start of a further run down to the 4000 area (or lower)?

Bayonets fixed, take no prisoners.
 
The XAO seems to be locked into a 10% swing between 4000 & 4400 depending on the news of the week. Pretty pathetic really, soooo boring, but good for the traders. Hope to see a sustained move in some direction early next year ???
 
Italian Bond yields back up to 6 and 7%
Moody's to downgrade 8 Spanish banks :hide:

howmanyru said:
soooo boring, but good for the traders. Hope to see a sustained move in some direction early next year ???
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What's boring to me is an overvalued market continuing to move up for 10 years!!
At least there is value now and unbelievable value soon. That's exciting!!
 
Ratings agencies now looking to dowmgrade US banks.
Perhaps these ratings agencies really were providing a better service before the GFC, by over valueing everything, except Ausi banks.
Confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus, lack of it - most destructive for market price action.
 
notting said:
unbelievable value soon. That's exciting!!
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I think the value (supposing everything turns to shyte) will not be immediate or apparent.

The trick will be to identify stock which will deliver future value... but that depends on exactly how much shyte we are in.

I've become decidedly less bearish than I once was, simply because I know realize they will just flip the nitrous oxide switch on the printing presses when things get too uncomfortable.

The "Mad Max" scenario is still out there, but way into the future IMO.:2twocents
 
wayneL said:
.I've become decidedly less bearish than I once was, ...
The "Mad Max" scenario is still out there, but way into the future IMO.:2twocents
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I'm the same to be honest. Over the last couple weeks all i have heard (even from cab drivers) is how screwed the World economy is and how we are heading for a massive depression.

It seems to me that everyone is expecting a crash and when that is the case its unlikely to happen. Im thinking a year or 2 of sideways movement before everyone gets over it and then we repeat the cycle again. Or we just stagnate for 10 - 20 years....

Either way i cant see a huge crash coming in the shorter term
 
The Dow pushes sentiment around. From its peak overnight it in fact dropped nearly 150 points in the final three hours.

The long term monthly shows lower highs since its peak in late 2007. The current action looks ominously like the action in mid 2008 just before the crash.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...alse&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=43&y=13

It could be on us any day now over the next month or so in my view.

As far as the taxi driver talk is concerned, almost every family knows of someones hours being cut back or of losing jobs.
 
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