Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Tysonboss1 said:
So how is every one feeling now.
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America seems to be feeling pretty good about itself. That's about all that matters.

I have been surprised, however, about the fact that Greece has suddenly become news again. I was kind of under the impression that that had been ring fenced and plugged.
Italy, they say, runs a decent surplus hence can handle it's high bond costs so the blow out the scarred the pants off me prior was not so bad APPARANTLY!

Leading up to Christmas they were all chanting, first half of 2012 is going to be nasty. Then it's going to be better. I'm thinking, market is supposed to be ahead of the game by about that so, what's the problem?

My thinking is feeling a little incomplete now that teeny weeny Greece is still a problem, that's not a problem but so far the rally is traveling as expected. Have been covering bets mostly but allowing some little large exposures to run when low volume selling over Christmas looked amateurish. Always a good opportunity that!!
So happier than before!:coffee:
 
Marcus Padley was on "The Report" channel 10 last night. He basically said that all the gloom and doomer economists/analysts have their own agenda, being able to make recommendations to their clients on which they make their living. Accordingly it is all bull dust because they really haven't got a clue.

It goes up, it goes down, trade the swings.
 
The market is no longer tanking but whether that's because investors/speculators think the sentiment of the newsflow is improving or because they've been inoculated to the newsflow is yet to be seen.

Looking at the macro picture, I see more risks to the downside than to the upside. Australia's economy is at a tipping point. Unless you live in a state dominated by the resources economy (and even then, it's not all beer and skittles), your economy is in danger of stalling. Professional service companies (accountants, auditors, lawyers, bankers, etc) are delaying hiring decisions or cutting staff. Retailers have been talking down the performance of their sector for months and would be popping champagne corks (apparently) if sales on a YoY basis are flat.

Overseas, I'm yet to be convinced that the worse of the Eurozone issues are behind us. The downgrade of France bonds means that the pressure is on other countries in the Eurozone, especially Germany, to fund the bailout fund. The Germans don't want to contribute, so this could blow up in the faces of Merkozy. The IMF can't obtain funds from Europe or the US to support its activities, so will be looking to the BRICs for funds. What pound of flesh will the BRICs extract to bail out western countries for their avarice?

The improvement in the US may not necessarily be long-lived, because the improvement in hiring numbers may have been partly or wholly due to seasonal factors, and the improvement in US retail sales may have been at the cost of savings, which will need to be built back up again.

The confrontation with Iran over its nuclear facilities has been kicked down the road six months to allow European countries to build up alternative oil supplies, but there's no doubt that it will become a major issue in the US presidential elections.

As always, I'll concentrate on high quality companies that can be had at a decent price.
 
What has changed in the US? They still have a load of debt and borrow money to pay it off. Now they have this crisis with Iran... more debt.

Europe still has a lot of debt, no meeting has made that smaller.

Its complete speculation by the markets. They're expecting to get stimulus from the central banks.... running on hopes and dreams IMO.
 
Wysiwyg said:
And that's right. Probably just a board room table joke that has gone viral.
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because your so highly valued bullish economists are so good at knowing whats going on...;)? i hear they got alot of people out of markets before the gfc, they obviously saw it coming...:rolleyes:

enjoy the rally, it wont last

even if they do stimulate they CANNOT stop whats coming, they can prolong it, but not stop. the US is a perfect example. they all have their heads in the clouds with the belief everything is better. they are sitting on a stimulus bubble, that is sitting on the pre-existing debt bubble.
 
nulla nulla said:
Marcus Padley was on "The Report" channel 10 last night. He basically said that all the gloom and doomer economists/analysts have their own agenda, being able to make recommendations to their clients on which they make their living.
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even if it were true the guys at the other end of the table would be doing the same thing. im sure padley has his own agenda.

the bears - have accepted things arent going to be the same for a long time, and are preparing themselves to minimize losses and battern down the hatches.

the bulls - are still trying to make back what they lost at the beginning of the gfc, and wont accept that its not going to happen, and for some reason still look past the blatantly obvious, with a glimmer of hope that it is going to get better.
 
young-gun said:
even if they do stimulate they CANNOT stop whats coming, they can prolong it, but not stop. the US is a perfect example. they all have their heads in the clouds with the belief everything is better. they are sitting on a stimulus bubble, that is sitting on the pre-existing debt bubble.
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I don't believe that investors are that stupid, most people understand that things are grim. I think speculators are just thinking about making a quick buck if there is stimulus. Theres plenty of money to be made if a strong (but possibly short lived) rally takes place across all markets.
 
adamim1 said:
I don't believe that investors are that stupid, most people understand that things are grim. I think speculators are just thinking about making a quick buck if there is stimulus. Theres plenty of money to be made (but possibly short lived) rally takes place across all markets.
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Plenty if the market goes up, down and even sideways!
 
adamim1 said:
I don't believe that investors are that stupid, most people understand that things are grim. I think speculators are just thinking about making a quick buck if there is stimulus. Theres plenty of money to be made if a strong (but possibly short lived) rally takes place across all markets.
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agree to an extent, but think alot are more than happy to follow the headlines, forgetting the past quite quickly, and forgetting the driving factors behind it all.
 
The Fed is pumping the market (the Dow) to give us the impression of a 'January effect'. Are we getting sucked along by the manipulation of just 30 or so stocks? Play it for what it is and go along for the ride until the fundamentals take over again.....blow off top approaching?

dow blow off.jpg

And they are already back to bubble territory for earnings, so can they 'surprise to the upside' any more from here to drive the market higher, in this climate??

SPearnings.gif
 
Around 4400 showed resistance during the second half of last year. Swing coming and maybe the zone for it. Opinion only.
 
Odd how the nasdaq and dow jones are fast approaching 2007 peak levels and our all ords is languising almost 1700 points or 25% below our 2007 peaks. The rise of the aud$ over the past 2 years must have really impacted on the level of foreign invesment in our market.

I'd like to think thet when the U.S crashes again we will be less effected, but I suspect the stampeding hoard won't stop to think about it.
 
nulla nulla said:
Odd how the nasdaq and dow jones are fast approaching 2007 peak levels and our all ords is languising almost 1700 points or 25% below our 2007 peaks. The rise of the aud$ over the past 2 years must have really impacted on the level of foreign invesment in our market.
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When i started work in my current job (involved in currencies) the AUD was about 85c against the USD. It went as low as 80 within 6 months. Now it is at 1.07 it is 25% higher than when i started.

For us personally that means that for any USD crosses we trade, we need to do 25% more volume just to break even with where we were 2 years ago.

Yes the markets fluctuate but the strength of the AUD has really hammered exporters and importers are not passing on their savings so the market is lopsided in that regard. In an era where central banks (Swiss, Japan) are directly intervening to maintain their currency in a certain band, the RBA seems to be the only bank favouring the 'free market'
 
notting said:
A truly free market would be an RBA interest rate of zero!
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Why? :confused:

Central banks are supposed to keep inflation under control, so why should companies/people be able to borrow without worrying about having to pay back any interest?
 
prawn_86 said:
Why? :confused:

Central banks are supposed to keep inflation under control, so why should companies/people be able to borrow without worrying about having to pay back any interest?
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I spose the context was 'a free market' so a totally free market wouldn't have a central body dictating the cost of credit??? rather supply/demand, not that the RBA has any sway these days as the rumour mill has 'the big 4' putting out feelers for a 'go-it-alone' rate rise regardless?

Unlike the RBA, China's big 4 play an essential part in the economy - money printing.....creating inflation??

SHANGHAI (MarketWatch) -- China's "Big Four" state-run banks issued around CNY320 billion (US$50.7 billion) combined in new yuan loans in January, the state-run China Securities Journal reported Wednesday, without citing sources.

Based on the numbers of the "Big Four" banks, China's banking sector may have extended CNY800 billion in new yuan loans last month, the report said.

The Big Four banks include Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. , Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. , Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp. .

The new yuan loans in January 2011 stood at CNY1.04 trillion, official data showed.
 
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