Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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explod said:
The Dow pushes sentiment around. From its peak overnight it in fact dropped nearly 150 points in the final three hours.

The long term monthly shows lower highs since its peak in late 2007. The current action looks ominously like the action in mid 2008 just before the crash.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ad...alse&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=43&y=13

It could be on us any day now over the next month or so in my view.

As far as the taxi driver talk is concerned, almost every family knows of someones hours being cut back or of losing jobs.
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I think the double dip recession is on the cards for sure and it might just be quite serious. But it won't be anything aberrant according to the Austrian business cycle... bearing in mind the gu'mint intervention thus far.

I see any severe and imminent recession as healthy, but we should expect further intervention resulting in inflation. There is just too much injected cash sloshing around for a bona fide crash and calamitous depression IME however.

I wouldn't discount it altogether, but low probability IMO.

FWIW
 
wayneL said:
The "Mad Max" scenario is still out there, but way into the future IMO.:2twocents
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But my stockpile of baked beans expires in May 2013 :banghead: :banghead:

P.S. If you choose to use baked beans as your main source of food in a Mad Max world, make sure your bunker has good ventilation.
 
I wish I had a dollar for every time I have seen “printing press” referred to in the last few years.

But I’m a bit confused. In the private sector money is created when people take on debt, how is that any different to the Government creating money by taking on debt?

I see sovereigns stepping into the breach to ease the economic impact of private deleveraging. But so far they are doing so by taking on debt obligations. I have not seen any money created without a corresponding obligation – so why all the talk about running the printing press when in reality no one (excluding Zimbabwe) has been near the big red button yet?

So long as there is an obligation to repay and a mechanism to control interest rates, runaway inflation can be controlled and the ultimate weapon against deflation is ‘true’ printing (without obligation)

The issue with monetary policy is not that it is setting us up for disastrous extremes which cannot be controlled but that it has a limit in being able to generate real growth. In a finite world perhaps that’s not such a bad thing – once everything is repriced to recognise that reality.

An adjustment to the growth paradigm is probably going to take a while with quite a few rotations between “Growth is back” and the “sky is falling” still to come.

That’s the big picture delusion I work under - I prefer it to the doomsday versions.
 
The true value is measured by how much copper you can buy having done an hour of work in China Vs how much copper you can buy having done an hour of work in the US.
If you can buy more copper in the US then they can print till the score is even so can the Europeans.
Inflation is the developed worlds politically effective way of raising taxes whilst selling tax relief!
No more $10 toasters for us!
 
craft said:
An adjustment to the growth paradigm is probably going to take a while with quite a few rotations between “Growth is back” and the “sky is falling” still to come.
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This is the issue, the economic and monetary system of the world is set up for perpetual growth. It can take a recession in between, but it must have growth always - otherwise it collapses. There is no such thing as in between.
 
prawn_86 said:
I'm the same to be honest. Over the last couple weeks all i have heard (even from cab drivers) is how screwed the World economy is and how we are heading for a massive depression.

It seems to me that everyone is expecting a crash and when that is the case its unlikely to happen. Im thinking a year or 2 of sideways movement before everyone gets over it and then we repeat the cycle again. Or we just stagnate for 10 - 20 years....

Either way i cant see a huge crash coming in the shorter term
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Probably true for Australia but it's really difficult to see how the Europe situation ends well.
 
craft said:
I wish I had a dollar for every time I have seen “printing press” referred to in the last few years.

But I’m a bit confused. In the private sector money is created when people take on debt, how is that any different to the Government creating money by taking on debt?

I see sovereigns stepping into the breach to ease the economic impact of private deleveraging. But so far they are doing so by taking on debt obligations. I have not seen any money created without a corresponding obligation – so why all the talk about running the printing press when in reality no one (excluding Zimbabwe) has been near the big red button yet?

So long as there is an obligation to repay and a mechanism to control interest rates, runaway inflation can be controlled and the ultimate weapon against deflation is ‘true’ printing (without obligation)

The issue with monetary policy is not that it is setting us up for disastrous extremes which cannot be controlled but that it has a limit in being able to generate real growth. In a finite world perhaps that’s not such a bad thing – once everything is repriced to recognise that reality.

An adjustment to the growth paradigm is probably going to take a while with quite a few rotations between “Growth is back” and the “sky is falling” still to come.

That’s the big picture delusion I work under - I prefer it to the doomsday versions.
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Thanks for that craft, that made me go check my facts, I'll never use that phrase again until it's accurate.

In fact here is a good article from Cullen Roche, with further info in the comments http://pragcap.com/the-exploding-u-s-money-supply-myth
 
banco said:
Probably true for Australia but it's really difficult to see how the Europe situation ends well.
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The Europe situation ends with a Eurozone bloc still there for travelling etc but the vast majority taking back their own (or new) currencies. From a logistical standpoint though this will take at least a couple years to print new money, dual prices good etc etc same as when the EUR was phased in
 
Our region seems to be going through a sell off in reaction to Kim Jong's death,

In my opinion ( and it's probally worth as much as you paid for it ), This will be a short sell off, and once the news is digested there will be a quick snap back in the coming day or so.
 
Tysonboss1 said:
Our region seems to be going through a sell off in reaction to Kim Jong's death,

In my opinion ( and it's probally worth as much as you paid for it ), This will be a short sell off, and once the news is digested there will be a quick snap back in the coming day or so.
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Our market was down before the announcement, so definitely not all contributed to this
 
prawn_86 said:
The Europe situation ends with a Eurozone bloc still there for travelling etc but the vast majority taking back their own (or new) currencies. From a logistical standpoint though this will take at least a couple years to print new money, dual prices good etc etc same as when the EUR was phased in
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IMO this would be a good outcome.

Monetary union without fiscal union is an absurdity that could never work long term... unless they imagined fiscal unity soon.

But that is just a Fabian wet dream IMO.
 
Tysonboss1 said:
Our region seems to be going through a sell off in reaction to Kim Jong's death,

In my opinion ( and it's probally worth as much as you paid for it ), This will be a short sell off, and once the news is digested there will be a quick snap back in the coming day or so.
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Korea's kospi is gyrating a bit but is off the low by ~1%. For them Kim's depth certainly increases uncertainty, but I'd argue that the chance of a positive outcome is probably as good as aa negative one.

I am definitely not an expert in Korean affairs, but I've been to Korea for a holiday if that counts for anything.
 
skc said:
South Korea of course :). Not sure North Korea has a share market or is open for holiday.
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You can go to NK, they only deny journalists and people from SK usually (AFAIK, haven't been). You can't stray far from Pyongyang without your DPRK appointed tour guide though.

The main tourist country visiting NK was affluent Chinese who live near the border, but apparently tourism has dropped significantly over the last 12 months.
 
prawn_86 said:
The Europe situation ends with a Eurozone bloc still there for travelling etc but the vast majority taking back their own (or new) currencies. From a logistical standpoint though this will take at least a couple years to print new money, dual prices good etc etc same as when the EUR was phased in
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What are you basing this on? I disagree.

I am a proponent of FOFOA/FOA/Another freegold (conspiracy) theory, I think the EUR is here to stay and in fact will sooner or later replace the USD as the currency which settles global trade while gold takes the same position on all balance sheets such as already exists on the ECB balance sheet (i.e. primary savings unit).

If you are game to read a long blog post rather different from the usual goldbug stuff,

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/07/euro-gold.html

Is one of many posts covering the topic.

At the right price, only a small amount of gold from Italy or Greece's coffers would be needed to rebalance their deficits to Germany overnight. Eurozone looks vastly different if you count gold reserves. Look at Italy!
 
skc said:
South Korea of course :). Not sure North Korea has a share market or is open for holiday.
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Not "of course" at all, skc, as Sinner's post describes. I don't know where the question of whether North Korea has a share market or not comes into your saying that you had been "to Korea" for a holiday.

sinner said:
You can go to NK, they only deny journalists and people from SK usually (AFAIK, haven't been). You can't stray far from Pyongyang without your DPRK appointed tour guide though.
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Quite. I know people who have been to N. Korea on a rigidly guided holiday.
 
Julia said:
Quite. I know people who have been to N. Korea on a rigidly guided holiday.
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I've been. Interesting place. Like a big Stalinist theme park. You see what they want you to see. Anyone who thinks NK is better in any way than the US needs their head examined.

You can't leave the hotel without your guide and the hotel for Westerners is on an island, so no real chance of getting out and about (not that there is much to see anyway). Funnily enough, the hotel had a brothel, casino, nightclub and bowling alley which was staffed by Chinese. The North Koreans who had worked in the lobby bar for 5 or so years had never been into the basement, where all the Western decadence existed!

ETA: Visas are denied for Japanese, SK and Israelis. Americans are allowed to visit only during the period when the Mass Games are on.
 
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