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The Middle East and Western Asia: Bit of a hot spot?

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Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

2020hindsight said:
The hypothetical implications become a bit of a concern. When the only oil left is in the middle east, or venezuala or nigeria - i.e. outside USA - mmm
Wouldn't you like to have been a fly on the White House wall as to the real reasons for invading Iraq.
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The real problem is production rate rather than oil reserves. That is, the ability (constrained by geology as opposed to investment etc) to get oil into the market.

In short, the Western world has no significant ability to increase production. That's right now. Apart from the tar sands in Canada, which realistically have a peak production potential of no more than 6 - 10 million barrels per day (and that's with total depletion over 50 - 30 years) there just isn't anything significant there to develop which isn't already being developed. Deepwater Gulf of Mexico etc is expected to peak (and then decline incredibly quickly) in less than a decade.

The rest is all either not in the West or we're talking about coal liquefaction, shale (which isn't known to have been successfully done on a large scale in an acceptable manner by anyone) or gas to liquids.

As for the latter, Russia and the Middle East combined hold two thirds of the world's gas and once again, Western reserves are being depleted far more rapidly leading to an increasing concentration of the remaining resource. Indeed the UK, USA and New Zealand are already in trouble with gas depletion whilst Australia is doing all it can to get the stuff out of the ground as quickly as possible (a foolish policy IMO). So gas leads down the same track as oil except that Russia is the most important country (something the Europeans are already learning about the hard way) rather than Saudi Arabia. That said, Iran's big natural resource is gas rather than oil... :2twocents
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kennas said:
One aspect of the Middle East question that I have been trying to get to the bottom of is the Shiite/Sunni sectarian conflict, which has been most prominate recently in Iraq.

I am undecided if this is even a 'religious' conflict or a cultural one. I would like to add to this some more maybe tomorrow because I still need to do some more research to get my head around it.

Any experts out there on this topic?
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Kennas, there was a programme on the background to this subject on the ABC's Radio National today. I was only half listening so can't tell you the name of the programme. It was on just after 1pm. If you go to the ABC's website you should be able to track it down. They publish full programme lists.

Julia
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Julia said:
Kennas, there was a programme on the background to this subject on the ABC's Radio National today. I was only half listening so can't tell you the name of the programme. It was on just after 1pm. If you go to the ABC's website you should be able to track it down. They publish full programme lists.

Julia
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Thanks Julia. Will look into it.

One thing I'm wondering in regards to the Sunni/Shiiite/Jew/Christian thing is that perhaps the only way they can be kept apart is by ultimate force. Every time there is a window of opportunity for any of them to rise up, the region is aflame.....
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

How India and Parkstan ended their conflicts? I believe the Middle East experts should learn from it. The answer is obvious and logic, but none dare to speak it out.

The current conflict in Middle East is rooted from no respect to each other's culture, religions, capabilities, power, and simply existence. Killing each other becomes the only solution.

How you can earn such respect in a very short time? Magic, or something powerful?
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

mmmmining said:
How India and Parkstan ended their conflicts? I believe the Middle East experts should learn from it. The answer is obvious and logic, but none dare to speak it out.
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They actually haven't ended it yet. Kashmir is disputed and they regularly exchange fire across the border.
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kennas said:
They actually haven't ended it yet. Kashmir is disputed and they regularly exchange fire across the border.
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Exchange fire is symbolic, but recognize each other's power is subtle.
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Well it looks like the Yan.... errrr, I mean Iraqis have botched another hanging.

ewwwwww :(
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kennas said:
Lots of chatter around the place about contingency plans to start bombing Iran's nuclear sites. A second carrier group has just recently deployed to the Persian Gulf....just a matter of time before the US war machine starts ticking over their arms economy a bit more.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2344821820070223?src=022307_1515_TOPSTORY_fighting_iran
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Another "Gulf of Tonkin" incident in the offing perhaps? :eek:
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kennas said:
Lots of chatter around the place about contingency plans to start bombing Iran's nuclear sites. A second carrier group has just recently deployed to the Persian Gulf....just a matter of time before the US war machine starts ticking over their arms economy a bit more.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2344821820070223?src=022307_1515_TOPSTORY_fighting_iran
Click to expand...

There have also been a number of "strikes" inside Iran along the Afghan border in the last two weeks, a bus was blown up with an IED and killed a number of Iranian Qod (highly trained military), followed by a blast on a gas pipeline in the same area. There has also been activity in Northern Iran along the border with Iraq in the Kurdish areas. Several weeks ago one of the Iranian U scientists died in mysterious circumstances.

General Petreus who now heads U.S. forces is a master in counter-insurgency. Expect to see lots of interesting "events" from various proxy groups operating inside Iran. There is no need for the U.S. to directly attack Iran as there are enough Iranians who hate the regime and will start to cause trouble, their economy is in the tank and their oil production is only marginally higher than Iraq. The U.S. fleets and air support are there to make the Iranians paranoid. The proxy "strikes" inside Iran will make them look powerless and paranoid. I bought stacks of NWRO on Friday, all I could get at 16.5, great high quality leverage on a gold run over US$700. This game has just started. Expect more trouble in Lebanon. Lots of very interesting stuff going on in Iraq also with Sunnis turning away from Alqeda.
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

sydneysider said:
There have also been a number of "strikes" inside Iran along the Afghan border in the last two weeks, a bus was blown up with an IED and killed a number of Iranian Qod (highly trained military), followed by a blast on a gas pipeline in the same area. There has also been activity in Northern Iran along the border with Iraq in the Kurdish areas. Several weeks ago one of the Iranian U scientists died in mysterious circumstances.

General Petreus who now heads U.S. forces is a master in counter-insurgency. Expect to see lots of interesting "events" from various proxy groups operating inside Iran. There is no need for the U.S. to directly attack Iran as there are enough Iranians who hate the regime and will start to cause trouble, their economy is in the tank and their oil production is only marginally higher than Iraq. The U.S. fleets and air support are there to make the Iranians paranoid. The proxy "strikes" inside Iran will make them look powerless and paranoid. I bought stacks of NWRO on Friday, all I could get at 16.5, great high quality leverage on a gold run over US$700. This game has just started. Expect more trouble in Lebanon. Lots of very interesting stuff going on in Iraq also with Sunnis turning away from Alqeda.
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Let's not forget Israel, who could let their maniacs loose at any time.
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

wayneL said:
Let's not forget Israel, who could let their maniacs loose at any time.
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Hezbullah has re-armed and are patrolling the Israeli border in contravention of UN resolutions. Do they count as maniacs?
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

sydneysider said:
Hezbullah has re-armed and are patrolling the Israeli border in contravention of UN resolutions. Do they count as maniacs?
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Maniac enough I'd say (read fanatical) and more than obviously supported by Iran and Syria. The whole region is a powder keg, as it has been on and off for the past 3000 years.

Syd, like your notes on the Iran 'incidents'. The CIA operational arm is alive and well with a budget the size of a small european country. Like Germany.
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Start piling your money into oil again boys. However can the US afford to start another war.
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

re iran, seemore wrote an interesting (read lengthy) article published 04/06 in the new yorker re us planning:

"The Bush Administration, while publicly advocating diplomacy in order to stop Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, has increased clandestine activities inside Iran and intensified planning for a possible major air attack. Current and former American military and intelligence officials said that Air Force planning groups are drawing up lists of targets, and teams of American combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover, to collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-government ethnic-minority groups. The officials say that President Bush is determined to deny the Iranian regime the opportunity to begin a pilot program, planned for this spring, to enrich uranium.

..."

http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060417fa_fact

cheers :)
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

sydneysider said:
Hezbullah has re-armed and are patrolling the Israeli border in contravention of UN resolutions. Do they count as maniacs?
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The word de jour is "terrorist" for Hezbollah. Though the IDF qualifies in deed, they're buddies with the evil empire, so "maniacs" will have to do.
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Oh dear..............

US denies 24-hour bombing plan for Iran
New York
February 26, 2007

Despite the Bush Administration insisting that it does not intend to go to war with Iran, a Pentagon panel has been created to plan a bombing attack that could be implemented within 24 hours of getting the go-ahead from President George Bush.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world...g-plan-for-iran/2007/02/25/1172338467912.html
 
Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

:eek: Time to go long on these?

LOCKHEED MARTIN CP [LMT]
HONEYWELL INTL INC [HON]
GEN DYNAMICS CP [GD]
NORTHROP GRUM HOL CO [NOC]
ROCKWELL COLLINS INC [COL]
 

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