The Middle East and Western Asia: Bit of a hot spot?

Sean K · 13 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

billhill said:
Yes Kennas i too am guilty of bashing the yanks for their apparent ignorance, but the US is a great nation and come 2 years time i think it will be back to the good old clinton days literally. The US have had bad leadership which has quite frankly made them vunerable to critcisms they would have shaken off during the clinton era. They may have continued problems in the middle east but under new leadership i think they will return to their former glory.

I hope so Bill, but I think Obama might be the man to do it. I'm not to sure about Hillary. Can Bill come back for another term? I think he's more popular now than ever!

In regard to the US being a great nation, I am not too sure. I think that the western consumerist value ideal will be the end of the human race. Sure, this did not originate in the US (perhaps by the asteroid that wiped out the dinasour and allowed us the florrish) but they have certainly developed it to a state where no one is anyone unless they can be identified by what they possess, and not who they are. A sad state of affairs. We are a credit socienty now. Use now, pay back later, which is ultimately unsustainable.

Back to the Middle East, I am actually very interested in the route cause of the long time strife there. Is it religion? Or, is it people not having jobs?? Or a football team to barrack for???

Buster · 13 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Kennas said:
the American public are so blindly insular and have no understanding of the rest of the world that I would not be surprised if they rally behind old Dubya, and be led to their inevitable doom

True, Americans are generally quite ignorant when it come to the rest of the world, however it's far easier to whip the mob into a vengeful frenzy when they only know the information you want them to know.. Again, check out the term Blowback..

Kennas said:
I am not too sure about China and Russia though. They are becomming more and more powerful by the day. There will come a time when the US wants to do something and they say, 'NO, you are not in control of the world now!' It's not too far off.......

billhill said:
Thats why i think an attack on iran will come sooner rather then later. The US knows if they can secure large energy supplies before russia or china can do anything about it they will remain at the top of the tree for many years to come..

Correct, Bombers/Fighters/Tanks/Warships become terribly ineffective without Oil.. Make up whatever story you like to justify the action (and hope the general populace don't cotton on..), but secure the Oil at all cost..

No matter how you look at it, it seems the Oil has been the cause of conflict for some 80 years a least..

Cheers,

Buster.

kgee · 13 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Definitely a hot topic
Is it a case of now or never for the bush administration?They probably only have a 2 year window of opportunity b4 elections?
Will china and russia stay on the sidelines? Beijging olympics next year...china's first time on the world stage
In my mind if I was Ahamanjihindad (?) I wouldn't be pushing the issue untill after the next US elections
Haven't heard anything from chavez for a while I'd imagine he'll be putting his 2 cents in soon and stirring up the pot
its a crazy world
gotta go.... have a game of tennis to play

Sean K · 13 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kgee said:
Definitely a hot topic
Is it a case of now or never for the bush administration?They probably only have a 2 year window of opportunity b4 elections?
Will china and russia stay on the sidelines? Beijging olympics next year...china's first time on the world stage
In my mind if I was Ahamanjihindad (?) I wouldn't be pushing the issue untill after the next US elections
Haven't heard anything from chavez for a while I'd imagine he'll be putting his 2 cents in soon and stirring up the pot
its a crazy world
gotta go.... have a game of tennis to play

Interesting you mention Hugo, because he is leading a wave of anti Americanism in Latin America (especially in El Salvador and Equador) that will ultimately mean the US will be facing fronts all around them. I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few Latin American countries ditch capitilist free markets (maybe not Chile, Brazil and Argetina) and go more socialist/agrarian.

I'm still not sure what long term strategic impact Hugo will have however. Not sure how critical Venezuela's oil is to the world (US) economy....

Smurf1976 · 13 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kennas said:
I'm still not sure what long term strategic impact Hugo will have however. Not sure how critical Venezuela's oil is to the world (US) economy....

I'll put it this way. Current Venezuelan production is more than the entire world surplus capacity. So demand can not be met without Venezuela in the medium term.

Long term, if the Orinoco belt bitumen is included (yes it is quite possible to upgrade this into conventional "oil" and indeed that is already done on a modest scale) then Venezuela holds more oil than any other country and more recoverable oil (after upgrading losses) than all but Saudi Arabia.

That's based on official Saudi claims which many dispute as being exaggerated (since they seem to represent total discovered rather than total remaining oil). Odds are Venezuela is the number one oil country in terms of remaining reserves. It is certainly number one in terms of undeveloped reserves.

billhill · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kennas said:
In regard to the US being a great nation, I am not too sure. I think that the western consumerist value ideal will be the end of the human race.

mmm this has been in my conciousness for some time. Companies can't grow profits for ever. How long until overpopulation becomes a major issue.

kennas said:
Back to the Middle East, I am actually very interested in the route cause of the long time strife there. Is it religion? Or, is it people not having jobs?? Or a football team to barrack for???

Its probably due to their ingrained culture. For thousands of years they have live a tribal culture. Trying to westernise them is like fitting a triangle plug in a round hole. Imagine if they were the world powers and tried to get europeans to live like them, we wouldn't have a bar of it. When a culture is that ingrained its probably in the gene pool. Genes are very hard things to eliminate from a group of people.

Buster said:
No matter how you look at it, it seems the Oil has been the cause of conflict for some 80 years a least..

Maybe its running out will be a blessing in disguise. One can only hope.

kennas said:
Interesting you mention Hugo, because he is leading a wave of anti Americanism in Latin America (especially in El Salvador and Equador) that will ultimately mean the US will be facing fronts all around them. I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few Latin American countries ditch capitilist free markets (maybe not Chile, Brazil and Argetina) and go more socialist/agrarian.

Is a capatilist free market sustainable in venezuela. Unlike say cuba which has few natural resources, venezuelas resources may indeed bring down its capitalist free market. As great wealth enters the country, corruption will probably see the wealth very unevenly distributed and may eventually lead to an uprising by the people. Chavez will have to make sure the wealth is fairly distributed or rule with a military fist, with the later more likely.

Plus i think brazil is often overlooked as a rising power in the world and will have great influence in the region. Really apart from a wider wealth divide then most western countries they are not much different to us. As the global warming issue matures brazil will be in an enveable position. They own the worlds lungs which could be good leverage in a post carbon trading world.

2020hindsight · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Originally Posted by kennas
Back to the Middle East, I am actually very interested in the root cause of the long time strife there. Is it religion? jobs?? Or a football team to barrack for???

1. Probably all three - plus (as someone said once, Golda Mair?), Moses with all his wisdom decided to found Israel on the only part of the middle east without any oil.
2. Religion has a lot to answer for doesn't it. Whether Jewish, Moslem, or Christian. I dont think the early Crusaders helped - marching down there with their weapons of mass seduction. Killing perfectly innocent people. (Not that we've progressed much in last few years).
3. Jobs - yep gotta be part of the problem ( and the part of the solution when we FINALLY start talking about a solution)
4. And I guess if they started playing soccer against each other, they'd need the UN to umpire the bludy thing.

2020hindsight · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

billhill said:
1. Companies can't grow profits for ever. How long until overpopulation becomes a major issue.
2. Genes are very hard things to eliminate from a group of people.
3. Maybe (oil) its running out will be a blessing in disguise. One can only hope.
4. Chavez will have to make sure the wealth is fairly distributed or rule with a military fist, with the latter more likely.
5. Brazil - They own the worlds lungs which could be good leverage in a post carbon trading world.

Bill
1. 100% agree, Note how all the pollies and economists smile when they pronounce that they've ensured growth for a year or two - or for their lifetime - with very little thought / discussion of the next generation. Still they can't vote yet so who cares.
2. Like trying to take jeans off a teenager
3. Oil runing out? in the middle east? - would I be cynical if I suggested that the west is encouraging the middle east supplies to be drawn down, whilst they lock up their reserves for "a rainy day"? - I'm no expert on relative supplies btw.
4. Venezualan politics sure gets promoted to a position of importance as you say. They wouldn't want another long term Castro. I thought there was a fair chance of them heading further left rather than right incidentally. Unlike Bush he (Chavez) will still be running for president in 2012. I also understood Chavez was getting extremely friendly with Iran.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Chávez
Hugo Rafael ChÃ¡vez FrÃas (born July 28, 1954) is the current President of Venezuela. As the leader of the "Bolivarian Revolution," ChÃ¡vez promotes his vision of democratic socialism, Latin American integration, and anti-imperialism. He is also an ardent critic of neoliberal globalization and U.S. foreign policy. etc
.........
ChÃ¡vez focused considerably on Venezuela's foreign relations in 2004 and 2005 via new bilateral and multilateral agreements, including humanitarian aid and construction projects. ChÃ¡vez has engaged, with varying degrees of success, numerous other foreign leaders, including Argentina's NÃ©stor Kirchner, China's Hu Jintao, Cuba's Fidel Castro and Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Speech to the United Nations - 2006 ChÃ¡vez speech at the UN .
On 20 September 2006, ChÃ¡vez delivered a speech to the United Nations General Assembly damning U.S. President George Bush.[82] In the speech ChÃ¡vez referred to Bush as "the devil," adding that Bush, who had given a speech to the assembly a day earlier, had come to the General Assembly to "share his nostrums to try to preserve the current pattern of domination, exploitation and pillage of the peoples of the world." Although it was widely condemned by U.S. politicians and media, the speech was received with "wild applause" in the Assembly.

You can bet that he and Iranian President Ahmad.. agree that USA are the problem, not the answer.
5. Brazil - yep you can almost imagine a scenario in which the desperate west attack Brazil -wearing gas masks because the air is so full of CO2- not because of their oil (almost run out), but because of those green lungs of theirs.
PS (make a change from the west attacking the brazilian lungs at the Mardi Gras- speaking of weapons of mass seduction)?

PS Good idea to widen the topic to include Venezuala (kennas Smurf etc) - although strictly off thread, Latin America and Middle East appear to be linked yes?

PS It will be great when the USA realise that they are as much the problem as the answer. - quite often it's 50-50, but that's on a good day.

chops_a_must · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

billhill said:
Is a capatilist free market sustainable in venezuela. Unlike say cuba which has few natural resources, venezuelas resources may indeed bring down its capitalist free market. As great wealth enters the country, corruption will probably see the wealth very unevenly distributed and may eventually lead to an uprising by the people. Chavez will have to make sure the wealth is fairly distributed or rule with a military fist, with the later more likely.

I disagree most vehemently.

The reason why Chavez has smashed everyone else in elections is BECAUSE he has distributed wealth very evenly. Particularly to the 30% that once lived in poverty before he came to power, and also the large Indian minority. Just because the CIA backed candidates aren't popular, does not mean that the winner is corrupt.

And Venezuela's philanthropy does not stop at it's own borders. It supplies heating fuel to poverty stricken residents in the US that it deems to be worse off than its own residents. And don't the US officials love that!

Buster · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Olbermann tears strips off Bush after his speech sending more troops into IRAQ..

Goes for about ten minutes, worth watching, the last five are scathing..

Bush's legacy: The president who cried wolf.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRMdJY3ihQg

Cheers,

Buster

Sean K · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kennas said:
Back to the Middle East, I am actually very interested in the route cause of the long time strife there. Is it religion? Or, is it people not having jobs?? Or a football team to barrack for???

One aspect of the Middle East question that I have been trying to get to the bottom of is the Shiite/Sunni sectarian conflict, which has been most prominate recently in Iraq.

I am undecided if this is even a 'religious' conflict or a cultural one. I would like to add to this some more maybe tomorrow because I still need to do some more research to get my head around it.

Any experts out there on this topic?

kgee · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

chops_a_must said:
I disagree most vehemently.

And Venezuela's philanthropy does not stop at it's own borders. It supplies heating fuel to poverty stricken residents in the US that it deems to be worse off than its own residents. And don't the US officials love that!

Philanthrophy or taking the piss ????
I think he might have got that idea when he was chewing on those cocoa leaves

Smurf1976 · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

2020hindsight said:
3. Oil runing out? in the middle east? - would I be cynical if I suggested that the west is encouraging the middle east supplies to be drawn down, whilst they lock up their reserves for "a rainy day"? - I'm no expert on relative supplies btw.

Depends on which field you are talking about. There's quite a lot of water flowing from some of those wells...

But in general the West has pumped far harder than the Middle East, hence the US oil policy being commonly known as "strength through exhaustion". That is, maximise production today and leave nothing for tomorrow. No surprise then to find that US oil fields are, in total, nearly 90% depleted by most estimates.

If you ignore Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico which were developed later, US oil production has crashed by close to 70% since 1970. That's depletion. Indeed even Alaska is now about 50% down from its peak.

Bottom line is that the Middle East's share of remaining reserves is trending upwards over the long term as reserves elsewhere are depleted more rapidly. Why? Because the flat earth economists insist that this makes sense for the West.

2020hindsight · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kgee said:
Philanthrophy or taking the piss ????
I think he might have got that idea when he was chewing on those cocoa leaves

careful kgee - you're taking on chops on his home turf, lol!.

Smurf - thanks for the info there (oil reserves). As usual you are a wealth of info. The hypothetical implications become a bit of a concern. When the only oil left is in the middle east, or venezuala or nigeria - i.e. outside USA - mmm
Wouldn't you like to have been a fly on the White House wall as to the real reasons for invading Iraq.

wayneL · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Buster said:
Olbermann tears strips off Bush after his speech sending more troops into IRAQ..

Goes for about ten minutes, worth watching, the last five are scathing..

Bush's legacy: The president who cried wolf.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRMdJY3ihQg

Cheers,

Buster

Olberman for President!!

It is comforting to know there are at least a few sane Americans.

kgee · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

2020hindsight said:
careful kgee - you're taking on chops on his home turf, lol!.

is that taking the piss or chewing cocoa leaves

2020hindsight · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

kgee said:
is that taking the piss or chewing cocoa leaves

now you mention it - either or both

2020hindsight · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Since I mentioned a third option for oil as Nigeria, I enclose the following stats on Muslem / Christian ratios in Africa:- Nigeria for instance is 50-50.
what choice but to become friends !!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Africa
"Approximately 40% of all Africans are Muslims, in contrast to another 40% being Christians and 20% being non-religious or adherents to African religions. Despite all of the above religions having a long and rich history in the continent, they have provided sources of numerous conflicts, especially in countries where there is no clear majority, for example Sudan and Nigeria. Islam can be seen as spreading to Africa via passages through the Sinai Peninsula and Egypt and well as through Arab and Persian traders and sailors. Despite its large contribution to the make up of the continent, Islam is predominantly concentrated in North Africa and, to a lesser extent West Africa & East Africa. This has provided an increasing difference between the culture and laws of different parts of Africa.

http://nickbrowne.coraider.com/2007/01/flash-point.html
I'm getting a bad feeling in my water about developments in the horn of Africa. What I worry about is the correlation of conflicts there with Moslem/Christian tension as the whole continent grows ever more segragated along religious lines.

Whether or not it is strictly correct, it is certainly tempting to view Ethiopia's intervention in Somalia as a fight between an ancient Christian country and the Council of Islamic Courts.

I've read that Africa is about 40% Muslim and 40% Christian, with the Muslims concentrated in the North, and the Christians clustered in the South.
.... Amazingly in1900 there were about 9 million Christians in all of Africa, but by the year 2000 that number had grown to 380 million.

What's going to happen when that demographic tidal wave from sub Saharan Africa starts colliding with a radicalised post 9/11 North?

Wysiwyg · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

2020hindsight said:
Since I mentioned a third option for oil as Nigeria, I enclose the following stats on Muslem / Christian ratios in Africa:- Nigeria for instance is 50-50.
what choice but to become friends !!

The split in interpretation of the`one` god appears to be superficial to me.Surely life is not that desperate.But .... an INGRAINED belief is not rationalised o`night.Alas .... some people NEED something to cling to. And desperate they are.

For what?...Recognition,love,freedom or just vengeance?

Sean K · 14 January 2007

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

2020hindsight said:
Since I mentioned a third option for oil as Nigeria, I enclose the following stats on Muslem / Christian ratios in Africa:- Nigeria for instance is 50-50.
what choice but to become friends !!

Africa is an interesting beast as far as religion and culture is concerned.

I agree that they may be half/half, but only just 'nominally' Muslim or Christian. They have all been converted but still maintain their core traditional beliefs which are Animist and/or Ancestor Worship.

Indonesia is a classic example where a 'nominal' religious country gets lumped with all the others therefore giving a sence of power, or authority, due to their number. Only a VERY SMALL % of Indonesians are true followers of Islam. The majority are Animist because after the attepted Coup in the 60s by the 'Communists' everyone was forced to nominate a religion (one of the 5 approved - but not Animism), or they were classified as Communist. Up to 500,000 'Communists' were slaughtered at this time. Because the ruling class of the time were Muslim everyone else thought that they should choose Islam, or they would be killed.....Indonesia is not a truely Muslim country but we have the perception of that because the minority Muslims there are fanatics and are the ones blowing up bars in Bali.....

The point is, that in most of Africa, it's not generally Islam or Christianity that is an issue, it's the people using Islam or Christianity as an excuse or basis to push their cause. Obviously there are certain countires that are more 'Muslim' that others, but they are mostly just subsects and not really following the Koran or New Testament.

(very happy for people with more understanding of the region to question this!)

The Middle East and Western Asia: Bit of a hot spot?

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