The Gillard Government

[Julia]

I disagree noco.
If they throw out Gillard they will all look like a bunch of d!!ks for putting her in and if they throw out the carbon tax, they will look like they are panicking.
Unfortunatelly they are painted into a corner, if they stay their popularity is likely to keep falling, believe it or not.

Agree. But they look like d!!ks anyway. Wouldn't they have some chance of a comeback if they did ditch the tax, in the process mouthing lots of warm fuzzy stuff about how they have listened to the people yada yada?

They would gain some credulity if Craig Thomson were to stand aside until the police investigation is completed, but are they up for that level of risk? I doubt it.

Must be hell for Labor. If I didn't so detest them, I'd feel a bit sorry for them.

 

[medicowallet]

Agree. But they look like d!!ks anyway. Wouldn't they have some chance of a comeback if they did ditch the tax, in the process mouthing lots of warm fuzzy stuff about how they have listened to the people yada yada?

They would gain some credulity if Craig Thomson were to stand aside until the police investigation is completed, but are they up for that level of risk? I doubt it.

Must be hell for Labor. If I didn't so detest them, I'd feel a bit sorry for them.

IMO, no. Who could believe JG that she would keep her promise to not do a tax?

Their only hope (and extremely slim it is) is to get rid of the current PM and try someone different, however it is almost suicide for whoever it is.

Perhaps their best hope is damage control and a restructure for another tilt 6 yrs later.

 

[sptrawler]

Agree. But they look like d!!ks anyway. Wouldn't they have some chance of a comeback if they did ditch the tax, in the process mouthing lots of warm fuzzy stuff about how they have listened to the people yada yada?

They would gain some credulity if Craig Thomson were to stand aside until the police investigation is completed, but are they up for that level of risk? I doubt it.

Must be hell for Labor. If I didn't so detest them, I'd feel a bit sorry for them.

No because if they ditch the tax the greens and the independents, who had a national t.v audience, have to take the fall.
They would be in no mans land and the independents would have to affiliate with the coalition, the greens would just wing it and try to grab labor votes.

 

[sptrawler]

Well it sounds as though Wilkie might have had enough and may be strapping on the life jacket.
The back lash on the independents affiliated to this government will be severe and if they are to jump ship it will have to be soon. One must remember ones parliamentary pension.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/coalition-pressure-building-on-wilkie-20110829-1jih9.html

 

[-Bevo-]

Anyone know whats going on here Gillard running the Murdoch press now, don't say anything bad about Julia.

http://www.smh.com.au/national/bomb...lodes-under-murdoch-press-20110829-1jipb.html

Bolt's gone quite too lol.

 

[Knobby22]

Real gutter press, from the Australian too which is meant to be a broadsheet. Nasty stuff.

 

[sptrawler]

Real gutter press, from the Australian too which is meant to be a broadsheet. Nasty stuff.

Certainly would appear so by how quickly it was withdrawn.

 

[Julia]

Real gutter press, from the Australian too which is meant to be a broadsheet. Nasty stuff.

Yes, I thought so too when I read the article. They do themselves no favours by getting into muckraking especially when there is no allegation of illegal behaviour by Ms Gillard. Pretty silly of News Ltd in the light of the current bad light hovering over the Murdoch empire.

 

[joea]

HI.
At this point in time it has developed into a blame game.
Gillard blames... Abbott, Employers, Banks and RBA. ( plus a few extra)
In the middle we have the Unions with their list to blame.
It can not be long before it all blows up. I said by the end of August, so I have one day left.

Yesterday I read a few posts here, and it got me to thinking.
Why isn't Julia Gillard being replaced?
Regardless of the facts the Independants are playing power games, and Wilkie saying he made a pact with Gillard, not the Labor Party, and the Greens with their list of demands.

This is what I think.
The powerbrokers in the Labor Party cannot work out if the want to put in a "caretaker PM", or somebody who can win the next election. Can that be done by one person????
By this I mean, replace her, get some runs on the board and in a years time they may have brainwashed somebody to do as they say.

The powerbrokers will be saying, "she did not listen to us", so who will it be.
(she has not listened to anybody as far as I can recall) These faceless men will be saying we can win the next election with the right person.

From what I read in the media, the current government is sitting on a powder keg with a fuse burning.
I think they are in a break mode, so I believe by the time parliment restarts there will be somebody in Gillards seat.
What think yeah?
joea

 

[Knobby22]

Gillard isn't on the nose as much in Victoria as she is in Queensland.

The media in Queensland is more concentrated also which has amplified the angst.

I can't see much to be gained by switching leaders except annoying voters in the southern states so it would be a dumb move in my opinion.

 

[sptrawler]

Gillard isn't on the nose as much in Victoria as she is in Queensland.

The media in Queensland is more concentrated also which has amplified the angst.

I can't see much to be gained by switching leaders except annoying voters in the southern states so it would be a dumb move in my opinion.

You are spot on Knobby22 there is no advantage in change of leader, won't work, too late and the leader is not the issue.
It is a fundamental loss of confidence in the governments agenda and ability.
Doug Cameron today on the news is obviously completely out of the loop and he is supposed to be high ranking, obviously not in Bobs league. LOL

 

[Julia]

Doesn't Julia Gillard now pretty much fill the role of 'caretaker PM'?
Unless some miracle occurs, Labor will lose the next election even if they go full term, at which stage no way will Labor keep that losing leader in the role.

So Ms Gillard will have to cop the entire blame for losing the election and a new leader will be heralded as the Saviour.

The alternative would be to shaft her now and put maybe Stephen Smith (hugely better choice imo) in, but it's likely they would still lose and in the process they have eliminated two of their better players. So let Ms Gillard continue for now and keep the alternative up their sleeve until after they've lost the election.

Any other contenders apart from Mr Smith?

 

[medicowallet]

The alternative would be to shaft her now and put maybe Stephen Smith (hugely better choice imo) in, but it's likely they would still lose and in the process they have eliminated two of their better players. So let Ms Gillard continue for now and keep the alternative up their sleeve until after they've lost the election.

Any other contenders apart from Mr Smith?

Exactly right.

I just think that 6 years in opposition would not be wise. Have to keep him fresh and either unleash him if/when Abbott implodes.

 

[dutchie]

Considering Gillards' complete incompetence when she is replaced she will need to go to the back benches. There is no way she would try to make a comeback. Krudd would have a better chance of making one.

In fact nearly the whole current front bench should be sent to the back bench! (the ones who retain their seats in the next election anyway)

 

[Logique]

Labor doesn't have the luxury of grooming, temporizing or strategizing on the leadership. There's nothing to lose now. Retaining the rouge PM just plays into the hands of the Coalition, the polls will drift even further.

If the ALP are to arrest the slide in the polls, the replacement leader needs a favourable combination of:
- from the Right, or at least the centre
- experienced, a steady hand
- not a former union official
- female or male, but not the huffy 'don't say meow to me' sisterhood type
- some experience of, or sympathy with business

So for me it's Stephen Smith on experience, or Julie Owens (MP Parramatta for those in other states).

 

[joea]

Labor doesn't have the luxury of grooming, temporizing or strategizing on the leadership. There's nothing to lose now. Retaining the rouge PM just plays into the hands of the Coalition, the polls will drift even further.

If the ALP are to arrest the slide in the polls, the replacement leader needs a favourable combination of:
- from the Right, or at least the centre
- experienced, a steady hand
- not a former union official
- female or male, but not the huffy 'don't say meow to me' sisterhood type
- some experience of, or sympathy with business

So for me it's Stephen Smith on experience, or Julie Owens (MP Parramatta for those in other states).

Very well stated.
My bet is, it will happen.
Julia is drinking scotch tonight, to get over the decision of the high court today.
Fair chance she will not sober up till Monday.
joea

 

[IFocus]

So for me it's Stephen Smith on experience, or Julie Owens (MP Parramatta for those in other states).

Cannot see Smith getting up simply because there would be no factional support.

There doesn't seem to be any circuit breaker for Labor best they can hope for is to limit the damage over the next two years.

Ironically Abbott remains Labors best hope to limit the damage, sooner or later he will have to answer questions about his populism politics.

Note even Howard on 7.30 thought this government would go full term.

 

[Logique]

Cannot see Smith getting up simply because there would be no factional support...

I hear you IF, but a PM from the west, and a West Coast Eagles premiership - not a bad daily double.

 

[joea]

Cannot see Smith getting up simply because there would be no factional support.

There doesn't seem to be any circuit breaker for Labor best they can hope for is to limit the damage over the next two years.

Ironically Abbott remains Labors best hope to limit the damage, sooner or later he will have to answer questions about his populism politics.

Note even Howard on 7.30 thought this government would go full term.

Well lest look at who has been put forward by the Labor fractions.

yap! yap! yap! Kevin Rudd, who won an election with no real policy. The people in his elecoroate still like him because he was "stabbed in the back".

Then we have yap! yap! yap! "socialist" Julia Gillard who has not got one of her major policy's to work, despite spending billions of taxpayer money.
A question to ask is, "are the labor policy's compiled by the labor machine or Gillard"?
We now have Oakshott saying the NBN should be recompiled.

If some of these top ministers are involved, then we got big problems. I mean can anbody make a major policy work in the current government.?
Even the Greens are outspoken on the Malaysian deal, and are deserting Gillard.

So a new face has to be chosen, who appears to be an achiever and ( the Rudd/Gillard type persona dropped.)
Smith is one who comes to mind.

On timing, there is no way Labor can win the next election with Gillard.
The Liberals stuffed up by not giving Costello a go. So don't you think Labor understand this?. If a new PM was to replace Gillard now, it would be almost a miracle to win the next election. The Australian way would be to give this person a go. This person could get a few runs on the board to allow him/her to campaign for the next election.
BUT is must be now or soon! The combination of Thompson(if Fair work can get its act together) and the Malaysian disaster may be the trigger.

joea p.s. obviously the GG is still asleep.

 

[Calliope]

The Peter Principle states that "in a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence", meaning that employees tend to be promoted until they reach a position at which they cannot work competently.

The Peter Principle kicked in when Gillard was appointed Labor leader. Her level of competence was as a cabinet minister, but even there she was involved in some grave errors such as the BER.

Abbott's level of incompetence will be reached when or if he goes from Opposition Leader to PM.