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In my opinion four things.
1) People wanting to believe that he has changed and want to give him a chance.
2) People who hated Gillard/Rudd but hate Abbott more.
3) People who are not rational about/not interested in politics who are looking for any excuse to vote Labor.
4) People who vote based solely on their own interests which align with Labor.
Indeed, plus the fact that the current dismal state of the economy, debt and illegal immigrants flood is now perceived as associated to Julia, not him.
As long as Tony is the face of the coalition, justified or not, it will be very hard for them to win against Rudd.
I hope I am wrong...