The Gillard Government

[Julia]

Julia,

Thanks for going to the trouble of contacting Mr O'Shannessy and posting his response.

Whilst he sounds a little exasperated, his response reassures me that Newspolls are legitimate gauges of public voting intention.

You're welcome, Ferret. Let's hope it similarly reassures others.
I'm not surprised he is somewhat exasperated.

 

[gav]

Julia,

Thanks for going to the trouble of contacting Mr O'Shannessy and posting his response.

Whilst he sounds a little exasperated, his response reassures me that Newspolls are legitimate gauges of public voting intention.

Totally agree. Thanks Julia for taking the time to do this, it was interesting to read Mr O'Shannessy's detailed response

 

[Ves]

Thanks for the effort Julia - I still lean towards my opinion, but I do admit that it is possible that some marketing organisations are probably legit. He has some interesting things to say about some of these "other" organisations too - which certainly leaves room for skepticism.

 

[Julia]

Thanks for the effort Julia - I still lean towards my opinion, but I do admit that it is possible that some marketing organisations are probably legit. He has some interesting things to say about some of these "other" organisations too - which certainly leaves room for skepticism.

Glad you found it useful, Ves. Having worked for one of Australia's largest research agencies I'm very aware of the lengths they go to in order to be objective and to absolutely avoid any bias.

I cannot post here all that Mr O'Shannessey discussed on the phone, but I'd suggest anyone with a genuine interest in this field follow his suggestion of discovering the affiliations of some of the polling organisations.
I did, and was very much surprised.

 

[Ves]

Glad you found it useful, Ves. Having worked for one of Australia's largest research agencies I'm very aware of the lengths they go to in order to be objective and to absolutely avoid any bias.

I cannot post here all that Mr O'Shannessey discussed on the phone, but I'd suggest anyone with a genuine interest in this field follow his suggestion of discovering the affiliations of some of the polling organisations.
I did, and was very much surprised.

I didn't realise that you worked in the field at one stage. No wonder you knew where to get the info!

 

[drsmith]

Something else that makes an election look sooner rather than later.

RELATIONS between the federal government and Rob Oakeshott have turned poisonous after a senior cabinet minister initiated legal action against the NSW independent MP concerning comments he made about the mining tax.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...by-ministers-legal-threat-20121102-28pgz.html

As for the MRRT itself, that mess just gets worse.

Failing to abolish royalties not only complicates the operation of the MRRT, it also removes an important justification for a profits-based mining tax. And crediting royalties against MRRT payments creates the extraordinary situation whereby when no tax is paid the commonwealth has a liability on its books if miners ever do start paying the tax.

In fact, it's a growing liability because the royalties credits keep accumulating while the miners don't pay the MRRT and, on top of that, unclaimed credits attract 10 per cent compound interest. It is extraordinary that a government would agree to such a taxation model.

In other words, not only has the first quarter of the MRRT's operation brought no revenue, it has created a commonwealth contingent liability. It has done so without relieving miners of the cost burden of paying royalties upfront, however. This is especially burdensome for smaller miners, but of course they were shut out of the 2010 negotiations.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...more-liabilities/story-fn53lw5p-1226509415880

 

[Ves]

Something else that makes an election look sooner rather than later.

I get the feeling that the US election will be like drugs to Australian politicians... it will spread the election fever. Could be wrong, but before March 2013 seems likely, don't you think?

 

[Logique]

A little shocked to read that Warren Mundine, a former national president, is leaving the ALP, "..no longer the party I joined.." he says - http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...-the-labor-party/story-fn59niix-1226509539543

Mr Mundine put his hand up to become Labor’s first federal indigenous parliamentarian when Mark Arbib quit the Senate in March. The ALP put Bob Carr into the seat. Asked if he could now see himself voting for the Liberal Party, Mr Mundine said: “Of course I can. Absolutely.”

Can't be easy watching "Banker Bob", his wife in tow, jetting around the world in business class at taxpayers expense. But Mundine is a man of integrity, and very welcome on the Liberal side.

 

[banco]

Something else that makes an election look sooner rather than later.



http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...by-ministers-legal-threat-20121102-28pgz.html

As for the MRRT itself, that mess just gets worse.



http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opi...more-liabilities/story-fn53lw5p-1226509415880

Be very curious to know if Gillard etc. knew the tax would raise very little if any money or if they got conned by the miners. I've read that the Department of Treasury was cut out of the negotiations which makes me think that Gillard knew that the tax would raise very little money but didn't want to be told so by Treasury during the negotiations.

 

[Julia]

I didn't realise that you worked in the field at one stage. No wonder you knew where to get the info!

My working in the industry was a very long time ago and has zero connection to obtaining any information now.
I simply googled Newspoll, phoned their head office Sydney number and explained what I wanted to know.
Mr O'Shannessy phoned me back the following day.

Anyone could have done the same.

 

[drsmith]

Be very curious to know if Gillard etc. knew the tax would raise very little if any money or if they got conned by the miners. I've read that the Department of Treasury was cut out of the negotiations which makes me think that Gillard knew that the tax would raise very little money but didn't want to be told so by Treasury during the negotiations.

Being a political fix to ease the path to an early election which she subsequently called, I'd say she didn't care one way or the other and did not want to know.

As for Martin Ferguson himself, he's now been given a severe spanking by the head mistress.

 

[noco]

I am sure Gillard would like to increase the GST but does not have the "guts" to do it unless of course she changes her mind and she has been known to in the past. She might even become desperate and hang it on some one else by saying we will increase the GST but it's not my idea.

I quoted some time ago of an exercise I did on 12.5% GST that it would bring in some $11.5 billion and would have given Labor a less headache than they now have on a carbon dioxide tax. At least people would have known how much extra they have to pay for goods and services where as with the Carbon dioxide tax it is unknown factor and is open to exploitation by unscrupulous traders.

Please read the connecting link by Paul Kelly.


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...rise-in-gst-rate/story-fn59niix-1226509690587

 

[drsmith]

I quoted some time ago of an exercise I did on 12.5% GST that it would bring in some $11.5 billion and would have given Labor a less headache than they now have on a carbon dioxide tax.

From Labor's perspective that wasn't the case and is still not the case. They needed the support of the Greens and independents to take office.

Any review to the GST should first involve broadening the base as this would simplify the tax overall.

As a matter of principal, governments should first look at living within their means before increasing the rate of any tax. This includes policies that repersent value for money and implementation as such. It also includes more efficient tas transfer arrangements, and in particular, making the base of existing taxes more robust and reviewing middle class welfare.

 

[noco]

I think Miss Gillard is digging a hole for herself by not telling the truth.

I hope Julie Bishop keeps digging until she finds some buried treasure.


http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/...mments/awu_scandal_gillard_misled_parliament/

 

[banco]

Being a political fix to ease the path to an early election which she subsequently called, I'd say she didn't care one way or the other and did not want to know.

As for Martin Ferguson himself, he's now been given a severe spanking by the head mistress.

Well let's face it I don't think anyone will be surprised when Martin Ferguson leaves politics to take up a highly paid job with mining interests after the next election.

 

[drsmith]

I hope Julie Bishop keeps digging until she finds some buried treasure.

I suspect the opposition feel they have enough, but are wisely proceeding with at least some caution.

Senator Eric Abetz on Bolt this morning,

[Senator Abetz: That is my understanding and all that is on the public record would suggest that. That is why there is a full 12 months in the chronology between Julia Gillard being interviewed and then leaving Slater and Gordon and the Australian Workers Union becoming aware of it and reporting it to the Police. So the assertion that the Prime Minister made in the Parliament does not seem to gel with the chronology on the public record. Having said that, I'm willing to give the Prime Minister the benefit of the doubt, but only if she provides a full and frank explanation to the Australian people.

http://www.international.to/index.p...nion-funds-&catid=97:breaking-news&Itemid=119

 

[Logique]

Don't rule out a 12.5% GST from an incoming Coalition government. The national books will be in a (probably very) dire state by the time they assume power. You take the tough decisions early in the term.

Yes the carbon tax will be watered down if they can find a way, perhaps they'll lower the floor price, but to abolish the tax completely requires passing the Senate, that's difficult.

Sadly, despite the Coalition promises, I don't see the means tested Medicare rebate being unwound.

As for the ridiculous Coalition maternity leave proposal, surely it too must be doubtful now.

"ALP Insiders" lived up to it's name this morning. You'd swear AbbotAbbottAbbott was running the country already.

 

[Julia]

I think Miss Gillard is digging a hole for herself by not telling the truth.

I hope Julie Bishop keeps digging until she finds some buried treasure.


http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/...mments/awu_scandal_gillard_misled_parliament/

Does the average Australian really care about this? I doubt it.

Yes the carbon tax will be watered down if they can find a way, perhaps they'll lower the floor price, but to abolish the tax completely requires passing the Senate, that's difficult.

That's a pretty sensible suggestion. Would avoid the whole drama of a double dissolution election which would probably be more than the electorate could stomach. Could Abbott et al reduce the floor price to, say, $1
without any difficulty, other than the predictable wailing from the Greens?

Sadly, despite the Coalition promises, I don't see the means tested Medicare rebate being unwound.

This is one I'd not want to see removed. There are many people, especially elderly, on low incomes who have so little trust in the public system (especially in regional areas) that they even now go without other stuff in order to pay their insurance premiums.

As for the ridiculous Coalition maternity leave proposal, surely it too must be doubtful now.

Hope so. You'd have to wonder why on earth he came up with it in the first place. Perhaps to attempt to negate the "Abbott doesn't like women" mantra.

 

[Knobby22]

Hope so. You'd have to wonder why on earth he came up with it in the first place. Perhaps to attempt to negate the "Abbott doesn't like women" mantra.

I believe at the time it was to counter the "women don't like Abbott" poll results.
I wonder what policy he will come up with to replace it?

 

[drsmith]

Don't rule out a 12.5% GST from an incoming Coalition government. The national books will be in a (probably very) dire state by the time they assume power. You take the tough decisions early in the term.

If they (any government) could raise it to 20%, they would. Raising a tax is technically the simplest approach, but it in itself is not reform. When we start down that path, where does it stop, 12.5%, 15%, 20% ?

That's why I'm idiologically against raising the rate.

In practical terms, any government wanting to do so though has to get over the hurdle of getting all the states into bipartisan agreement.

Yes the carbon tax will be watered down if they can find a way, perhaps they'll lower the floor price, but to abolish the tax completely requires passing the Senate, that's difficult.

This will depend a lot on the politics at the time, no doubt.

Sadly, despite the Coalition promises, I don't see the means tested Medicare rebate being unwound.

As for the ridiculous Coalition maternity leave proposal, surely it too must be doubtful now.

With commentary from TA about phasing in and delaying, we are allready seeing the Coalition start to back away at least in broad terms, and that's a good thing. The damage done by Labor sadly can't be repaired overnight.

In itself, that maternity leave proposal should never have seen light of day.

"ALP Insiders" lived up to it's name this morning. You'd swear AbbotAbbottAbbott was running the country already.

Penny Wong was clearly slightly less than keen to garantee that surplus.

I thought the panel was OK, but yes, the focus was biased too much towards the opposition in my view.