The future of energy generation and storage

Another inquiry into Callide C explosion.

SirRumpole said:

Another inquiry into Callide C explosion.

Federal Court orders new investigator for Callide Power Station explosion

Almost three years after a catastrophic incident left almost half a million people without power, investors still don't have answers as to what caused the explosion.

www.abc.net.au

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I wonder what went on?
But people must be getting nervous with the units off line, I guess they are trying to find out where things are heading before the winter peak, things might be tight and an election year.
That wouldn't be good.

sptrawler said:

I wonder what went on?
But people must be getting nervous with the units off line, I guess they are trying to find out where things are heading before the winter peak, things might be tight and an election year.
That wouldn't be good.

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Do we want to get into conspiracy theories?

SirRumpole said:

Do we want to get into conspiracy theories?

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Well the thing is, it has been a long time and they still aren't back and it sounds like a report hasn't been forthcoming.
Add to that the recent situation @Smurf reported, on how close things are running to the wind.
The fact the winter peak wont have the solar generation and it ain't conspiracy it is simple arithmetic, maybe they need to know if Callide is coming back and how reliable it is.
Maybe @Smurf1976 can check in and give a unofficial prognosis?

sptrawler said:

Well the thing is, it has been a long time and they still aren't back and it sounds like a report hasn't been forthcoming.
Add to that the recent situation @Smurf reported, on how close things are running to the wind.
The fact the winter peak wont have the solar generation and it ain't conspiracy it is simple arithmetic, maybe they need to know if Callide is coming back and how reliable it is.
Maybe @Smurf1976 can check in and give a unofficial prognosis?

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I suppose there are two possibilities,

1. They don't know what caused it and are too embarrassed to admit it or,

2. They do know what caused it and are too embarrassed to admit it.

I wouldn't be surprised if we hear the words "commercial in confidence " somewhere down the track.

Things are certainly getting exciting, 27million people now.

Regarding Callide C, a few points and summary as follows.

Note there's only two units in the power station despite being named C3 & C4. A slight oddity there - in short units 1 & 2 are the two B station units next door.

Unit C4 has been offline since 25 May 2021 due to the catastrophic failure (commonly referred to as an explosion) with the present return to service schedule being to commence generation on 30 June 2024 and, after a recommissioning process, achieve full operation on 31 July 2024.

Unit C3 has been offline since 31 October 2022 due to structural collapse of the cooling tower, which has since been completely demolished to ground level and rebuilt. Present schedule is to achieve first generation on 29 February 2024 with full operation by 31 March 2024.

Note that B station is fully operational and did not incur damage, apart from being tripped offline during the original incident on account of the broader system disturbance. That's effectively an external shock to the station and in layman's terms required a restart - no physical damage occurred.

There's some complexity here with ownership since CS Energy owns 100% of B station but only 50% of C station despite being the operator of both. The owner of the other 50% of C station, IG Power Callide, went into voluntary administration on 24th March 2023.

The action in the Federal Court has been initiated by Sev.en Global Investments which is a shareholder in IG Power Callide. Note that's the correct name and not a typo - Sev.en

CS Energy is 100% owned by the Queensland state government.

Given it's a legal matter, I'll be limited in what I say here:

Unit C4 following the trip motored for 32 minutes and 59 seconds according to the power system investigation lead by AEMO. Noting here that AEMO's role is investigating the impact on the broader power system not anything else.

In simple terms motoring means the alternator became a motor, drawing energy from the grid, and continued to rotate despite loss of its input energy (the boiler, steam system etc). That was definitely not supposed to happen, it should've disconnected from the power system with the original trip of generation.

So there's been a major failure of protection here, the failure to disconnect C4 from the power system when it originally tripped being what made all the other events, including the catastrophic destruction and major power system disturbance, possible. Adding this seems to have gone unnoticed by humans for quite some time despite an unavoidable awareness that something had obviously gone wrong.

Why that failure to disconnect occurred, and why no human seemed to be aware of the situation or able to deal with it in real time, is where the legal aspect is likely to focus.

I could say a lot more but to avoid any potential legal issues I'll refrain from doing so. Let's just say a complete failure of protection to operate and nobody seemingly being aware, even after the machine literally caught fire, all raises a lot of serious questions.

In terms of supply, it's tight but so far it's working. Wouldn't want anything else to go wrong though. It's really only the very good performance from other plant that's avoiding bad outcomes.

sptrawler said:

Things are certainly getting exciting, 27million people now.

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Meanwhile, schools can't cope, hospitals can't cope, infrastructure can't cope and a lot of people can't afford a place to live.

But then, immigration will save the nation as we keep getting told by those who just want more voters or more consumers and low wage slaves.

SirRumpole said:

Meanwhile, schools can't cope, hospitals can't cope, infrastructure can't cope and a lot of people can't afford a place to live.

But then, immigration will save the nation as we keep getting told by those who just want more voters or more consumers and low wage slaves.

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Yes it will be interesting if there is a major slowdown, all these extra people, to share a smaller pie.

I guess they are hoping everything bounces in synch, that would be great, if they don't well that could be equal and opposite.

As we say time will tell, but one thing for sure the new normal for living costs, is a lot higher than it was a while back.
A shopping trolley of food, the rent, the mortgage, the cost of electricity, insurance etc, will be a lot higher.
Best case scenario the welfare and wages return to the same buying power, worst case scenario they don't, here's hoping.

sptrawler said:

Yes it will be interesting if there is a major slowdown, all these extra people, to share a smaller pie.

I guess they are hoping everything bounces in synch, that would be great, if they don't well that could be equal and opposite.

As we say time will tell, but one thing for sure the new normal for living costs, is a lot higher than it was a while back.
A shopping trolley of food, the rent, the mortgage, the cost of electricity, insurance etc, will be a lot higher.
Best case scenario the welfare and wages return to the same buying power, worst case scenario they don't, here's hoping.

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Wouldn't you think that with all the problems going on, someone might say, let's step back for a while and evaluate the position, do some planning to solve current problems and not make it any worse in the meantime?

SirRumpole said:

Wouldn't you think that with all the problems going on, someone might say, let's step back for a while and evaluate the position, do some planning to solve current problems and not make it any worse in the meantime?

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Well I tend to think they have looked at a model and gone, we need to increase our population base, to increase the market place and the tax base. It isn't as though Rudd didn't talk about a 'Big' Australia years ago.

But as with everything that isn't tax payer funded, it doesn't get installed until demand exceeds supply, so now we have the issue with housing, health, education, power supply etc.

The problem is IMO, if we are hit with a dramatic drop in the price of resources, it will throw us into a recession and high unemployment, then as businesses will be failing the jobs slide increases.

Money for installing marginal renewables will dry up and then we become more dependent on really old and worn out coal plant, being supplied with coal from mines that can't get financing to open more seams, my guess is that is why Combet has been installed in the Future Fund, it may well be required.
As I've said over and over, great ideas, the implementation is the problem.

Hopefully iron ore holds up and Albo pulls off a blinder, but if China start and play nasty, deepum $hitum IMO. Then the 2million people, become 2million more on welfare, that weren't there before.

Hopefully they pull off a blinder, time will tell, we are too far down the track to turn around now, as soon as Chris set the target it became game on.

SirRumpole said:

Wouldn't you think that with all the problems going on, someone might say, let's step back for a while and evaluate the position, do some planning to solve current problems and not make it any worse in the meantime?

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She'll be right mate

sptrawler said:

Well I tend to think they have looked at a model and gone, we need to increase our population base, to increase the market place and the tax base. It isn't as though Rudd didn't talk about a 'Big' Australia years ago.

But as with everything that isn't tax payer funded, it doesn't get installed until demand exceeds supply, so now we have the issue with housing, health, education, power supply etc.

The problem is IMO, if we are hit with a dramatic drop in the price of resources, it will throw us into a recession and high unemployment, then as businesses will be failing the jobs slide increases.

Money for installing marginal renewables will dry up and then we become more dependent on really old and worn out coal plant, being supplied with coal from mines that can't get financing to open more seams, my guess is that is why Combet has been installed in the Future Fund, it may well be required.
As I've said over and over, great ideas, the implementation is the problem.

Hopefully iron ore holds up and Albo pulls off a blinder, but if China start and play nasty, deepum $hitum IMO. Then the 2million people, become 2million more on welfare, that weren't there before.

Hopefully they pull off a blinder, time will tell, we are too far down the track to turn around now, as soon as Chris set the target it became game on.

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If shxt hits the fan, I think using coal will be the least of our issues, more food security, crime and losing your super to national interests..., and the elephant in the room, the disintegration of Australia along racial and cultural lines

sptrawler said:

Money for installing marginal renewables will dry up and then we become more dependent on really old and worn out coal plant,

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As a case in point, Gladstone power station in Queensland was commissioned progressively from 1976 and has six generating units all the same. It's a conventional coal-fired steam plant using coal delivered by rail and the cooling is sea water.

At this point to be depending on it running flawlessly with all six units on is asking a bit much really. That it's doing so is good luck but don't count on it continuing, sooner or later it'll need plant taken off for maintenance, or be forced off if anything breaks, that's just reality given it's not exactly shiny and new at this point.

qldfrog said:

If shxt hits the fan, I think using coal will be the least of our issues, more food security, crime and losing your super to national interests..., and the elephant in the room, the disintegration of Australia along racial and cultural lines

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@qldfrog Mr frog me thinks that the fan has a mobility problem. Seized up with the shxt already.

The politics of Australian gas exports.

SirRumpole said:

The politics of Australian gas exports.

How long will Australia remain a major gas exporter? It depends who you ask

Resources Minister Madeleine King has used a week-long visit to Japan and South Korea to assure both government and business figures that Australia will remain a "reliable supplier" of export gas well into the future.

www.abc.net.au

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As we keep saying over and over, ideology is being overtaken by reality, but at the moment those driving the agenda don't have a plan B.

The longer this goes on, the less likely a sensible outcome will be able to be enacted, then everyone is in all sorts of trouble.

At the moment the Government is riding a wave of public confidence, but as the article shows, those who are objectively watching from the outside looking in, don't have the same confidence that everything is going to plan, no one can see a plan.

I mean let's be honest what has actually been done about the energy transition other than make grandiose statements and set targets? Zippo, the Marinus link has been halved and the rest of the support infrastructure for the transition, is left over projects from the last Government.
The gas exploration has been hammered by court cases and also States banning the use, no new major hydro projects have been initiated and we all know the time delays both environmental and logistical in hydro.

No Hydrogen projects are up and running, No battery manufacturing projects have commenced or really on a major scale even been announced, now the battery mineral mines are closing both lithium and nickel.

The H>V transmission upgrade is another left over project from the last Government, all that has really happened is the Government has made a timeline of 6 years time, even blind Freddy can see that is looking unlikely.

Meanwhile we have the Governments paying the private sector to dig up coal to run foreign owned generators, because they can't get financial backing, because the loonies are telling the banks they aren't allowed to lend to the coal miners.

Now someone explain to us mere plebs, what the plan is, because it is beginning to look like we are winging it to the casual observer and a Government and climate sympathyser in charge of the future fund stash may be a great move, maybe, or maybe not time will tell.

I feel a huge implosion coming on, as usual great ideas, pizz poor implementation then a massive flameout and someone else has to clean up the mess at great cost.

Situation normal, it is starting to feel like history repeating, Australia you're standing in it.

sptrawler said:

As we keep saying over and over, ideology is being overtaken by reality, but at the moment those driving the agenda don't have a plan B.

The longer this goes on, the less likely a sensible outcome will be able to be enacted, then everyone is in all sorts of trouble.

At the moment the Government is riding a wave of public confidence, but as the article shows, those who are objectively watching from the outside looking in, don't have the same confidence that everything is going to plan, no one can see a plan.

I mean let's be honest what has actually been done about the energy transition other than make grandiose statements and set targets? Zippo, the Marinus link has been halved and the rest of the support infrastructure for the transition, is left over projects from the last Government.
The gas exploration has been hammered by court cases and also States banning the use, no new major hydro projects have been initiated and we all know the time delays both environmental and logistical in hydro.

No Hydrogen projects are up and running, No battery manufacturing projects have commenced or really on a major scale even been announced, now the battery mineral mines are closing both lithium and nickel.

The H>V transmission upgrade is another left over project from the last Government, all that has really happened is the Government has made a timeline of 6 years time, even blind Freddy can see that is looking unlikely.

Meanwhile we have the Governments paying the private sector to dig up coal to run foreign owned generators, because they can't get financial backing, because the loonies are telling the banks they aren't allowed to lend to the coal miners.

Now someone explain to us mere plebs, what the plan is, because it is beginning to look like we are winging it to the casual observer and a Government and climate sympathyser in charge of the future fund stash may be a great move, maybe, or maybe not time will tell.

I feel a huge implosion coming on, as usual great ideas, pizz poor implementation then a massive flameout and someone else has to clean up the mess at great cost.

Situation normal, it is starting to feel like history repeating, Australia you're standing in it.

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Ah yes. Standing in it , and knee deep at the moment and rising, unfortunately.
Where are the brains trust with foresight.
Oh, they all went overseas, to be appreciated.

Are vertical axis wind turbines on the way back ?

Big Brother is watching your air conditioner.