The future of energy generation and storage

[SirRumpole]

As I said earlier where has all the talk of building a battery manufacturing plant here gone? Just give Samsung. LG or Tesla a tax incentive to process here we have the ingredients just need the tech and Govt support.
Let's be honest the last Govt got CSL to build a vaccine manufacturing plant in Victoria, it's about time we moved on with secondary manufacturing and using our materials.
Why can't we supply our own grid batteries, we are going to need plenty of them.

Taxpayers, CSL to build vaccine manufacturing plant​

The Morrison government will spend $1 billion over a decade to underwrite the construction of a new vaccine production facility to guarantee the nation continues to have its own supply of flu shots, antivenins and, if another pandemic occurs, the sovereign capability to look after its own...

www.afr.com
The Morrison government will spend $1 billion over a decade to underwrite the construction of a new vaccine production facility to guarantee the nation continues to have its own supply of flu shots, antivenins and, if another pandemic occurs, the sovereign capability to look after its own citizens first.

Under the deal, CSL subsidiary Seqirus will spend $800 million to build a new state-of-the-art facility at Melbourne's Tullamarine airport.

I guess the question is, where is the market? Australia is too small(atm) and foreign markets would be more likely to buy from local manufacturers.

So I think it all depends on the size of the ev market here. Getting in early in battery manufacturing would help kick start th e EV take up.

 

[sptrawler]

I guess the question is, where is the market? Australia is too small(atm) and foreign markets would be more likely to buy from local manufacturers.

So I think it all depends on the size of the ev market here. Getting in early in battery manufacturing would help kick start th e EV take up.

Grid batteries should be easily assembled as they are container mounted, which would also make them easy to export, I would think we could be pretty competitive especially against EU and U.S manufacturers.
I would think there would be a bigger and bigger demand for non China sourced batteries, as they are critical infrastructure and if things turn nasty supply from China could dry up very quickly.
Not that our Govts seem to think about that sort of thing, until the $hit hits the fan and it is too late to do anything, as per covid vaccine supply now we are building a manufacturing facility.
Ask people in Kalgoorlie what it is like without power, I bet they look at it with a new focus after the last couple of days, grid batteries will be more critical than vaccine IMo.

 

[sptrawler]

On a happier note.

Power is being restored to Australia's largest outback town after long blackouts. How could this happen?

Power is starting to return to Kalgoorlie-Boulder, after extended outages hit the city's water supply, fuel stations, internet and phone services.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

That'll be the problem.....

220kV towers in WA. Photos - Western Power

There's 5 in similar condition so it's an incident similar to the collapse of six towers in Victoria or the 2016 tower collapses in SA. There was also one taken out in Tasmania in 2022 although that was due to a landslip so not really a comparable situation but same end result.

 

[SirRumpole]

View attachment 169181
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View attachment 169183

That'll be the problem.....

220kV towers in WA. Photos - Western Power

There's 5 in similar condition so it's an incident similar to the collapse of six towers in Victoria or the 2016 tower collapses in SA. There was also one taken out in Tasmania in 2022 although that was due to a landslip so not really a comparable situation but same end result.

Are we looking at a Mascot Towers like situation of defective standards or is this just a one off ?

And should we be concerned as storms get more frequent and more violent ?

 

[mullokintyre]

View attachment 169181



That'll be the problem.....

220kV towers in WA. Photos - Western Power

There's 5 in similar condition so it's an incident similar to the collapse of six towers in Victoria or the 2016 tower collapses in SA. There was also one taken out in Tasmania in 2022 although that was due to a landslip so not really a comparable situation but same end result.

looking at the state of that rather dry grass, its a surprise there were no fires started due to arcing.
Mick

 

[basilio]

Losing all those power towers..
Not a quick simple fix at all.

The impact on the community has already been severe. An upcoming heatwave will only intensify the harm. It will be instructive to see how insurance/Gov Support/whatever keep businesses and people afloat.

'Really eerie': Residents recount chaos that ensued after outback city was plunged into darkness

From trading biscuits for phone chargers to being forced to throw thousands of dollars worth of food and medical supplies, locals tell of the chaos widespread power outages have caused in regional WA.

www.abc.net.au

Parts of WA could hit 50 degrees over the weekend as extreme heatwave looms

Residents in parts of the Pilbara, Midwest and Goldfields have been warned to brace for extreme heatwave conditions from today and into the weekend.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

Kalgoorlie faces a week without electricity amid heatwave due to WA power outages

Businesses close, and water supply, internet and fuel affected as outback town swelters in temperatures forecast to hit 40C

www.theguardian.com

 

[mullokintyre]

Kalgoorlie faces a week without electricity amid heatwave due to WA power outages

Businesses close, and water supply, internet and fuel affected as outback town swelters in temperatures forecast to hit 40C

www.theguardian.com

Ya gotta wonder about the so called resilience of todays community.
Kalgoorlie has been around a long time, long before electricity was widespread, much less air conditioners and the internet.
Paddy Hannan would not have had too many creature comforts when he started the Kalgoorlie goldrush in the late 1800's.
The years 1939 thru 1944 were all extremely hot with temperatures over 40 for days on end, peaking at 45.8 in January 1944.
Makes you wonder how they survived.
Mick

 

[Smurf1976]

Are we looking at a Mascot Towers like situation of defective standards or is this just a one off ?

Given there's been 3 separate incidents, each involving multiple towers, over the past 7.5 years there's a need for a proper review of the standards in my view. SA 2016, Vic early 2020 and now WA in 2024.

The explanation for the one in Victoria was a convective downburst. That's a weather phenomenon not an electrical one, it's coincidental the transmission line happened to be in the place that copped it, but it's an extremely destructive event when it occurs.

So I do think a review of the design standards would be a reasonable course of action. Bearing in mind, for reference, that over the past few years in Australia the design of most major dams has been individually reviewed as a precaution, that's a review for each and every dam, and that's a much greater task than a generic transmission tower design standard.

 

[qldfrog]

On that subject latest news:

'Really eerie': Residents recount chaos that ensued after outback city was plunged into darkness

From trading biscuits for phone chargers to being forced to throw thousands of dollars worth of food and medical supplies, locals tell of the chaos widespread power outages have caused in regional WA.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

That'll be the problem.....

220kV towers in WA. Photos - Western Power

There's 5 in similar condition so it's an incident similar to the collapse of six towers in Victoria or the 2016 tower collapses in SA. There was also one taken out in Tasmania in 2022 although that was due to a landslip so not really a comparable situation but same end result.

I think the issue that is causing a bit more angst at the grass roots level, is the backup GT's had no 'blackstart' ability FFS.

I mean really, what intellectual midget thought that one up, FFs a major regional centre with one feeder line and the backup gen sets can't blackstart OMG. Probably saved a couple of grand in the planning phase of the project.

Someone must have gone down to Bunnings to get a portable generator, to get the GT's online. Lol

State had two-year heads-up on Kalgoorlie’s weak turbines: opposition

The state could have acted in advance to avoid much of the suffering thousands of people are now suffering for days on end, says the opposition energy spokesman.

www.watoday.com.au

From the article:
Five 50-metre transmission towers were razed, requiring a monumental effort from Western Power staff to connect the area back to the grid, which is still under way and is expected to take some time.
The resumption of power to Goldfields residents was delayed due to two Synergy-run backup gas turbines in West Kalgoorlie tripping on Thursday, immediately after they were switched on.

WA Premier Roger Cook said the generators tripped because they could only work if there was some existing power in the grid.
“My understanding is that the complete outage of the entire area was a very rare event,” he said.
“When those backup generators were switched on, they automatically tripped, because there was literally nothing in the system.”
Cook conceded the turbines were not fit for purpose in such a severe outage.
He said the government needed to look at backups, particularly as the state expected more severe weather in the future due to climate change.

 

[SirRumpole]

I think the issue that is causing a bit more angst at the grass roots level, is the backup GT's had no 'blackstart' ability FFS.

I mean really, what intellectual midget thought that one up, FFs a major regional centre with one feeder line and the backup gen sets can't blackstart OMG. Probably saved a couple of grand in the planning phase of the project.

Someone must have gone down to Bunnings to get a portable generator, to get the GT's online. Lol

State had two-year heads-up on Kalgoorlie’s weak turbines: opposition

The state could have acted in advance to avoid much of the suffering thousands of people are now suffering for days on end, says the opposition energy spokesman.

www.watoday.com.au

From the article:
Five 50-metre transmission towers were razed, requiring a monumental effort from Western Power staff to connect the area back to the grid, which is still under way and is expected to take some time.
The resumption of power to Goldfields residents was delayed due to two Synergy-run backup gas turbines in West Kalgoorlie tripping on Thursday, immediately after they were switched on.

WA Premier Roger Cook said the generators tripped because they could only work if there was some existing power in the grid.
“My understanding is that the complete outage of the entire area was a very rare event,” he said.
“When those backup generators were switched on, they automatically tripped, because there was literally nothing in the system.”
Cook conceded the turbines were not fit for purpose in such a severe outage.
He said the government needed to look at backups, particularly as the state expected more severe weather in the future due to climate change.

It's incredible isn't it ?

"Not fit for purpose".

There should be an enquiry into who designed the system and heads should roll, if they haven't already been despatched to some foreign country out of harms way.

 

[mullokintyre]

View attachment 169182


That'll be the problem.....

220kV towers in WA. Photos - Western Power

There's 5 in similar condition so it's an incident similar to the collapse of six towers in Victoria or the 2016 tower collapses in SA. There was also one taken out in Tasmania in 2022 although that was due to a landslip so not really a comparable situation but same end result.

Looking at the degree of oxidation on the barbed wire and the gal angle section, I suspect those towers have been up some time.
Does anyone from WA know how old these towers might be?
While searching for some data points, I came accross this article from Ausnet Services.talking about the tower failures in the Victorian Energy network.

This document defines the asset management strategies for the Victorian electricity transmission network’s population of transmission line structures to maintain the safety, quality, and security of supply.
There had been 45 structure functional failures associated with eleven extreme wind events affecting this transmission network since 1959.

So thats a bit less than one per year`.

All failed structures were built to historical design standards with inadequate strength to withstand convective downdraft winds occurring during extreme storm events.

Perhaps the design standards of 1959 and onwards were a tad inadequate, but they have been upgraded.

Modern design standards produced in 2010 ensure sufficient structural capacity to withstand extreme wind events; however, structures designed to old standards still exist on the network.

So there are still some lder structures in the network.

The mean time between failures (MTBF) of transmission line structures has declined since 1992 due to failures of low-strength towers in extreme winds.

Its a pity that the delta for this decline was not shown, but its an improvement.

Eleven structures along the Bendigo to Kerang line were replaced in January 2013, as well as reinforcement on 108 towers from the Dederang to South Morang 330 kV lines. Risk assessments reveal that 60 structures on the Murray Switching Station to Dederang 330 kV lines present health and safety risks due to their proximity to roadways and will be upgraded before 2022. The latest tower collapse event occurred early this year in one of the 500 kV circuits built 40 years ago, which is located along an open and flat terrain in the South West part of the network. The 7 permanent structures are scheduled to be installed later this year.

So obviously age is a problem but we assured it is being addressed.
I was more than a little surprised to read the following.

The average age of structures is 50 years as majority of the fleet were erected prior to 1965. Primary inspection techniques indicate that the structures are generally in good condition.

So despite the replacement and refurbishment program, the average age is 50 years. Given all the new transmission replacements, there must be some pretty old towers out there.
I wonder if Western Power in WA have a similar sort of doc.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Looking at the degree of oxidation on the barbed wire and the gal angle section, I suspect those towers have been up some time.
Does anyone from WA know how old these towers might be?
While searching for some data points, I came accross this article from Ausnet Services.talking about the tower failures in the Victorian Energy network.

From memory the line was done in the early 1980's.

 

[mullokintyre]

Solar home rooftop panel installation had a big dive from 2011 to 2016.
Not sure why that is the case, perhaps because the levels of subsidy to feed back into the grid dropped off.
It recovered until COVID hit, but has since started a decline again.
Are we starting to reach pek solar home installation??
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Has someone from WA already posted about the DeGrussa battery backup system being shut down?
Originally built to provide clean power for Sandfires DeGrussa mine, which has since closed.
From PV magazine

French renewable energy giant Neoen has confirmed the DeGrussa solar and battery hub in the heart of Western Australia’s goldfields region will be dismantled after seven years of operations.

The DeGrussa facility, comprising 10.6 MW of PV and a 6 MW lithium-ion battery energy storage system teamed with a diesel-fired generator, was commissioned at West Australian mining company Sandfire Resources’ Degussa copper mine site, 900 kilometers northeast of Perth, in June 2016.

The solar hybrid power system has since supplied nearly 20% of the mining operation’s annual power requirements and cut its emissions by about 12,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.

Sandfire purchased the power under an initial 5.5-year agreement but that was extended as the mining operation pushed beyond its original 2021 closure date. The mine has however now ceased operations, signalling the end of life for the DeGrussa solar and battery hub.

In a statement shared with pv magazine, Neoen said it plans to remove the solar panels, as well as the rest of its facility and to rehabilitate the site.

Climate Energy Finance Director Tim Buckley said the dismantling came as no surprise with the end of mine life “absolutely well known” when they solar hybrid power system was commissioned.

“There is no surprise there,” he said, adding that in spite of its short lifespan, the DeGrussa power project has been a “brilliant success.”

I wonder where all the equipment will go, and who actually owns the stuff.

Buckley said the project, which attracted AUD 20.9 million ($13.7 million) in funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and AUD 15 million in debt finance from Clean Energy Finance Corp. (CEFC), was part of the “step change that took solar from being a potential technology to being now integral to the transformation and decarbonization of the Australian electricity system.”

According to AFR , the panels were supposed to have a life of 25 years, and its to get any metric of stats to convince that it was good investment.

Soon, red dust will be all that remains of the $20.9 million of taxpayers’ funds invested into the project by ARENA. So, was it really worth it?

The legacy of the DeGrussa solar project isn’t particularly impressive when measured in dollars.


Market disclosures by Sandfire over the past seven years suggest a total of 80,687 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions were avoided at DeGrussa because the mine consumed solar power rather than diesel.

Based on the $20.9 million committed to the project by ARENA, each tonne of greenhouse gas avoided at DeGrussa cost the taxpayer about $259.

That’s dramatically higher than the $32 a tonne carbon price implied by the market price for Australian carbon credit units (ACCUs) in December.

Neoen doesn’t appear to have made a major windfall out of the project either; accounts filed to ASIC over the past seven years suggest it earned about $28.6 million of revenue by selling power to Sandfire.

Only when ARENA’s $20.9 million grant is added, does the project’s revenue exceed the $43 million construction cost.

Neoen’s DeGrussa subsidiary paid just over $7 million of cumulative dividends over the seven-year period.


But Neoen has further costs ahead as it works to decommission the site after just seven years.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

From memory the line was done in the early 1980's.

Jeez @mullokintyre I hate it when people do that, I've been scratching my head to remember the date, then a light bulb moment.
The company every now and again gave us a book, just so we would maintain our love and appreciation for the company, so I dug them out.
The Kalgoorlie 220kv line was first energised 8th of August 1984 and officially opened on 9th August 1984, how's that for a piece of useless information.
Jeez I need to get a skip in and get rid of some of this $hit.

 

[Smurf1976]

So despite the replacement and refurbishment program, the average age is 50 years.

The inherent nature of this stuff is it's durable. So long as corrosion doesn't get it, the insulators are maintained and the conductors aren't annealed then there's not much more to it unless some external force (extreme weather, landslide, etc) damages it.

Tasmania still has some 1930's transmission (110kV) in full operation for example. The generation's still running, the load still exists, there's been no reason to replace it thus far. It would be built differently if done today, but it's still doing what it was built to do.

That creates a situation where any upgrade to modern standards would really only be for the sake of upgrading. The line's functional as is, albeit not to modern standards. Bearing in mind the big $$$ cost of replacement.

Certainly some replacements have occurred though, most notably Tas and Vic which were the first states to build a transmission system and thus had the oldest assets. Even there though, it's mostly been associated with the closure of old generation, closing the line and associated transformers at the same time. Eg the original Yallourn generation transmitting at 132kV to Melbourne versus later generation at Yallourn being at higher voltages, it thus made sense to close all the old stuff together. Or the 1916 built 88kV Waddamana to Hobart line that became obsolete along with Waddamana A power station. etc.

Eventually though, well they won't last forever.

 

[Smurf1976]

Are we starting to reach pek solar home installation??

I've suggested that but quickly realised I ought tread carefully there.

It's a bit of an article of faith among some in very high places that no such peak will occur, at least not for a long time yet, so questioning it needs to be approached with some caution.....

My logic though is only about 50% of homes will end up installing solar. Because:

Rentals are a third of all homes and mostly won't install it.

High density generally not suitable.

Those with heavy shade or unsuitable roof designs.

Those planning to knockdown, do major renovations or replace the roof in the medium term.

Heritage listed buildings.

Those who don't have or aren't willing to invest the capital.

Those who simply don't want it.

Put that all together and my personal view is it'll top out somewhere circa 50% of homes.