The future of energy generation and storage

[SirRumpole]

I've suggested that but quickly realised I ought tread carefully there.

It's a bit of an article of faith among some in very high places that no such peak will occur, at least not for a long time yet, so questioning it needs to be approached with some caution.....

My logic though is only about 50% of homes will end up installing solar. Because:

Rentals are a third of all homes and mostly won't install it.

High density generally not suitable.

Those with heavy shade or unsuitable roof designs.

Those planning to knockdown, do major renovations or replace the roof in the medium term.

Heritage listed buildings.

Those who don't have or aren't willing to invest the capital.

Those who simply don't want it.

Put that all together and my personal view is it'll top out somewhere circa 50% of homes.

Plus the fact that I would guess that a lot of housing estates weren't planned with proper orientation for solar.

 

[SirRumpole]

WA government orders inquiry into failure of backup turbines.

Interesting to hear the results if they ever release them.

Thousands remain without power as WA government vows to launch investigation

The state energy minister has vowed to investigate why gas generators designed to provide backup power across Kalgoorlie failed during a massive outage this week.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

I think the issue that is causing a bit more angst at the grass roots level, is the backup GT's had no 'blackstart' ability FFS.

I mean really, what intellectual midget thought that one up, FFs a major regional centre with one feeder line and the backup gen sets can't blackstart OMG. Probably saved a couple of grand in the planning phase of the project.

WA stuff I'm no expert on but I note the gas turbines are numbered 2 and 3.

Now to my eastern states way of thinking, that implies there was a gas turbine number 1 at some point historically but it's not there now.

That said, they do have some differences in naming conventions over there. A plot to keep the eastern states out of it probably.

 

[SirRumpole]

The billionaires are getting restless in WA as the government considers new gas policies.

Warnings WA’s gas policies could go from envy of the nation to ‘disaster’ as billionaires chase exports

WA's policy of preventing gas produced onshore from being exported was hailed as a masterstroke during the east coast's energy crisis. But with pressure to ease those restrictions coming from billionaires, some say that could lead to disaster.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SirRumpole]

Does anyone know the status of the Kurri Kurri gas turbine plant?

It was supposed to be operational in 2023 but I can't find any recent information on it.

 

[mullokintyre]

Does anyone know the status of the Kurri Kurri gas turbine plant?

It was supposed to be operational in 2023 but I can't find any recent information on it.

From AFR but it was back in feb 2023

the 750-megawatt Kurri Kurri plant near Newcastle is now anticipated to only be fully online in December 2024, although initial power production is expected in May of that year, he said.

Mick

 

[sptrawler]

It is all getting very weird IMO, someone needs to actually sit down and have athink about things.

Government announces extra gas supply for east coast but households may not benefit

Gas companies Woodside and Esso will supply extra gas to the east coast energy market in return for receiving higher prices, the federal government has announced.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

Does anyone know the status of the Kurri Kurri gas turbine plant?

Current AEMO data says December 2024 for full operation, so ready in time for summer 2024-25.

That said, it's likely to be physically operable some time prior to that though initially only on diesel not gas (since the pipeline is still being built).

Separate to that, all time record demand in Qld yesterday was successfully supplied. Tight, but it was supplied despite the present non-operation of Callide C and Barron Gorge power stations.

 

[qldfrog]

Has someone from WA already posted about the DeGrussa battery backup system being shut down?
Originally built to provide clean power for Sandfires DeGrussa mine, which has since closed.
From PV magazine

I wonder where all the equipment will go, and who actually owns the stuff.

According to AFR , the panels were supposed to have a life of 25 years, and its to get any metric of stats to convince that it was good investment.

The amount of wasted money and fossil fuel burnt for that, now where will they dig the hole to burry these..a telltale sign of a coming massive wave

 

[qldfrog]

Current AEMO data says December 2024 for full operation, so ready in time for summer 2024-25.

That said, it's likely to be physically operable some time prior to that though initially only on diesel not gas (since the pipeline is still being built).

Separate to that, all time record demand in Qld yesterday was successfully supplied. Tight, but it was supplied despite the present non-operation of Callide C and Barron Gorge power stations.

Well Qld did not end up that well

Probe ordered into mass power outage amid heatwave

An investigation has been ordered into the cause of mass power outages during a heatwave in Queensland's south-east after more than 40,000 homes lost power.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Smurf1976]

Well Qld did not end up that well

Probe ordered into mass power outage amid heatwave

An investigation has been ordered into the cause of mass power outages during a heatwave in Queensland's south-east after more than 40,000 homes lost power.

www.smh.com.au

Network faults, several of them, not lack of generation.

That said, two major generating units now off in Qld due to boiler tube leaks. One taken off late on Monday, other late on Tuesday.

Needless to say supply is now extremely tight especially for 27th January due to forecast weather and consumption.

 

[sptrawler]

Network faults, several of them, not lack of generation.

That said, two major generating units now off in Qld due to boiler tube leaks. One taken off late on Monday, other late on Tuesday.

Needless to say supply is now extremely tight especially for 27th January due to forecast weather and consumption.

I can sense another skin of the teeth moment.

 

[Smurf1976]

I can sense another skin of the teeth moment.

Yep:

113714RESERVE NOTICE24/01/2024 05:31:15 PM

STPASA - Forecast Lack Of Reserve Level 2 (LOR2) in the QLD Region on 27/01/2024​

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

AEMO declares a Forecast LOR2 condition under clause 4.8.4(b) of the National Electricity Rules for the QLD region for the following period:

[1.] From 1800 hrs 27/01/2024 to 1930 hrs 27/01/2024.
The forecast capacity reserve requirement is 714 MW.
The minimum capacity reserve available is 636 MW.

AEMO is seeking a market response.

So reserve is less than the capacity of the largest generating unit = insecure operating state although demand can be met if nothing fails.

 

[Smurf1976]

NSW forecast load on 26 January does exceed available generation within the state that's true, it's a bit over 400MW short, but as long as everything works there's a bit available from Qld and there's enough spare in Vic to fully load the lines Vic > NSW so it's tight but doable.

The real concern though is that at some point luck's going to run out, probably quite dramatically when it finally happens.

 

[qldfrog]

For the fanatics of nuclear power generation in a country with endless amount of coal and gas in the ground:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

And this is in between countries who have 3 generations of nuclear engineers and matching research, facilities etc

 

[Smurf1976]

Supply was extremely tight in Queensland yesterday but no load shedding occurred due to lack of generation, those without power being so due to storm damage to networks etc. That said, it came close - discussions did commence with industry to be ready to cut load.

Supply mix as per chart.

Yellow = solar
Green = wind
Blue = hydro
Light Blue = battery
Orange = gas
Red = diesel
Black = coal
Purple = from NSW

Below the zero line during the morning and early afternoon was hydro pumping at Wivenhoe pumped storage mostly, plus a minor amount for battery charging.

 

[qldfrog]

Supply was extremely tight in Queensland yesterday but no load shedding occurred due to lack of generation, those without power being so due to storm damage to networks etc. That said, it came close - discussions did commence with industry to be ready to cut load.

Supply mix as per chart.

Yellow = solar
Green = wind
Blue = hydro
Light Blue = battery
Orange = gas
Red = diesel
Black = coal
Purple = from NSW

Below the zero line during the morning and early afternoon was hydro pumping at Wivenhoe pumped storage mostly, plus a minor amount for battery charging.

View attachment 169700

And thanks to the cyclone, 50k people or so we're not using any power..which helped the rest of Queensland.
Coal is really doing a good job btw

 

[SirRumpole]

Interesting device for keeping wind turbine output speed constant regardless of blade speed.

I know they use blade pitch control to regulate the blade speed but it seems that this device could be handy also.

 

[qldfrog]

And thanks to the cyclone, 50k people or so we're not using any power..which helped the rest of Queensland.
Coal is really doing a good job btw

Just an aside, when I type from the phone, I have a nasty spelling corrector changing my typing on enter
Above :
were into we're
Sorry spellcheck: most common forms are not always right...

I often correct them back if I have time to reread after posting but this is not foolproof..my apologies
Back on power : with thousands still disconnected on Sunday and helping keeping the grid up

 

[sptrawler]

We can't build batteries here, that's not what we do, we dig holes. Repeat after me " all hail the shovel".

https://www.mining.com/web/court-rejects-request-to-halt-construction-of-swedish-battery-plant-in-quebec/

A court in the Canadian province of Quebec on Friday blocked a green group’s bid to temporarily halt the construction of a $5.2 billion plant by Swedish lithium-ion battery maker Northvolt, the group said.