The future of energy generation and storage

[SirRumpole]

Excellent story on the ABC at the current state of play with solar power.
Essentially roof top solar is killing everything - including large scale solar farms.
The essential need now is ways to smooth, move and store the excess renewable energy being produced.

Rooftop solar 'cannibalising' power prices as Australian generators pay to stay online​

By energy reporter Daniel Mercer
Posted 33m ago33 minutes ago
View attachment 162823
Australia is leading the world in the adoption of rooftop solar.(Reuters: Tim Wimborne, file photo)
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Daytime power prices are plunging into negative territory – meaning generators have to pay to produce – as renewable energy increasingly cannibalises the market, according to experts.

Key points:​

• Wholesale power prices are increasingly turning negative at times of high solar output
• Observers say rooftop solar is "cannibalising" electricity prices and hitting large-scale solar hard
• There are calls for storage and greater daytime demand to help soak up solar production

As the share of green energy in Australia's biggest electricity system momentarily reached a record high of 70 per cent this week, energy software company Gridcog said "price cannibalisation" was becoming an increasingly common phenomenon.

Wholesale power prices in the national electricity market across the eastern states dropped to as low as -$64 per megawatt hour last Saturday, when soaring output from millions of rooftop solar panels flooded into the system.

The phenomenon is particularly pronounced in mild, sunny conditions and especially on weekends, when solar output is at its highest but demand for electricity is relatively low.

In a post to its social media followers, Gridcog said large-scale solar farms were, perversely, being hit hardest by the trend because rooftop solar was generally beyond the control of the market operator.

It noted utility-scale solar plants were having to pare back generation or switch off entirely during such periods to avoid having to pay to maintain production.
"Price cannibalisation is a major emerging feature of the energy transition," the company wrote on LinkedIn.

Generators pay to stay on as dominant rooftop solar 'cannibalises' electricity prices

The rise of rooftop solar in Australia shows no signs of slowing, bringing cheap, clean power. But the technology is also reshaping the power system in some surprising ways.

www.abc.net.au

Hey bas, read post 7318.

 

[basilio]

I did a bit more checking on Peter Pedals after I found the above story.
He had some seriously bad luck after he retired. Check out the cause of the fire that destroyed his lifes work.

Life's work in ruins​

RESPECTED solar identity Peter “Pedals” van der Wyk lost his life's work yesterday afternoon when his Blue Knob property went up in flames.
By Ava Benny-morrison

less than 2 min read
September 15, 2011 - 2:00AM

Peter van der Wyk (Mr Pedals) and Nimbin Rural Fire Service Senior Deputy Captain Charley Cohen inspect the damage after fire destroyed Mr Pedals’ Blue Knob residence yesterday. . Picture: Cathy Adams

Lismore​

Don't miss out on the headlines from Lismore. Followed categories will be added to My News.


RESPECTED solar identity Peter "Pedals" van der Wyk lost his life's work yesterday afternoon when his Blue Knob property went up in flames.

The founder of the Nimbin-based Rainbow Power Company was helping a neighbour with his solar panels on his multiple-occupancy property on Blue Knob Rd at 1pm yesterday when he heard fire trucks rushing towards his property.

Mr Pedals said he hurried up to his property, which sits on top of an extremely steep rocky hill, to find everything he owned engulfed by flames.
"That was my life's work," he said.

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/lismore/lifes-work-in-ruins/news-story/5a9f0b15ffb14452bcf7ed6f95c20674

 

[basilio]

Hey bas, read post 7318.

Indeed. I saw it just as I was posting my observation. We were literally reading and posting in the same minute !

 

[sptrawler]

Fascinating story.

"Rooftop solar is eating everyones lunch".

The rise of rooftop solar is putting utility scale projects at risk by depressing prices at times of high solar output.

But we still need peaking power to fill in the gaps.

The only solution I can see is for governments to build and run the peaking plants, whether they be batteries, hydro or gas turbines because commercial operators aren't going to make the investment for thin returns.

Generators pay to stay on as dominant rooftop solar 'cannibalises' electricity prices

The rise of rooftop solar in Australia shows no signs of slowing, bringing cheap, clean power. But the technology is also reshaping the power system in some surprising ways.

www.abc.net.au

Kurri Kurri, Snowy 2.0 anyone? Oh I forgot narrative and vested interests, if the projects hadn't been started a transition to renewables would already be sunk.
When will the media just let the experts get on with it, rather than constantly running a narrative, that changes as the public perception changes?

Why a new gas-fired power station at Kurri Kurri makes zero sense | Climate Council

The Morrison government has announced it will commit up to $600 million of public funds to a new gas-fired power station at Kurri Kurri in the New South Wales Hunter Valley. This is blatantly irresponsible.

www.climatecouncil.org.au

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/sustainability/energy-economic-experts-slam-600m-kurri-kurri-gasfired-power-plant/news-story/5aa591790ac72541af42fe570614bebb

Energy, economic experts slam $600m Kurri Kurri gas-fired power plant​

The Kurri Kurri gas-fired plant in Australia is A$1 billion white elephant

The Kurri Kurri gas-fired plant in Australia is A$1 billion white elephant

ieefa.org

At Senate Estimates, the Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood suggested the project was poorly planned and likely a waste of taxpayer money.

Snowy Hydro is a bad deal for taxpayers and must be put on hold | Bruce Mountain for the Conversation

Of the extra pumped hydro capacity promised by the project, less than half can be delivered

www.theguardian.com

The federal government’s much-vaunted Snowy Hydro expansion is supposed to smooth out the bumps in electricity supply as Australia transitions to renewables. But not only is the project a bad deal for taxpayers, our analysis suggests it will deliver a fraction of the energy benefits promised.

 

[SirRumpole]

Kurri Kurri, Snowy 2.0 anyone? Oh I forgot narrative and vested interests, if the projects hadn't been started a transition to renewables would already be sunk.
When will the media just let the experts get on with it, rather than constantly running a narrative, that changes as the public perception changes?

Why a new gas-fired power station at Kurri Kurri makes zero sense | Climate Council

The Morrison government has announced it will commit up to $600 million of public funds to a new gas-fired power station at Kurri Kurri in the New South Wales Hunter Valley. This is blatantly irresponsible.

www.climatecouncil.org.au

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/sustainability/energy-economic-experts-slam-600m-kurri-kurri-gasfired-power-plant/news-story/5aa591790ac72541af42fe570614bebb

Energy, economic experts slam $600m Kurri Kurri gas-fired power plant​

The Kurri Kurri gas-fired plant in Australia is A$1 billion white elephant

The Kurri Kurri gas-fired plant in Australia is A$1 billion white elephant

ieefa.org

At Senate Estimates, the Grattan Institute’s Tony Wood suggested the project was poorly planned and likely a waste of taxpayer money.

Snowy Hydro is a bad deal for taxpayers and must be put on hold | Bruce Mountain for the Conversation

Of the extra pumped hydro capacity promised by the project, less than half can be delivered

www.theguardian.com

The federal government’s much-vaunted Snowy Hydro expansion is supposed to smooth out the bumps in electricity supply as Australia transitions to renewables. But not only is the project a bad deal for taxpayers, our analysis suggests it will deliver a fraction of the energy benefits promised.

ClimateCouncil and the Guardian obviously think they know best.

If it was left to them nothing would be done except coal plants getting torn down with nothing to replace them.

 

[Smurf1976]

Essentially roof top solar is killing everything - including large scale solar farms.

SA at 13:25 (SA time) today system demand actually went negative at -15.76 MW.

Estimated rooftop solar generation at the time was 1405 MW and that supplied the entire system load, including the Adelaide CBD and major industry, with a bit left over.

4.5 hours later and more than two thirds of supply was from fossil fuels.

 

[sptrawler]

SA at 13:25 (SA time) today system demand actually went negative at -15.76 MW.

Estimated rooftop solar generation at the time was 1405 MW and that supplied the entire system load, including the Adelaide CBD and major industry, with a bit left over.

4.5 hours later and more than two thirds of supply was from fossil fuels.

As you and I know, that has a cost, not only from fuel costs but also a wear and tear cost.
The only good thing is, at the moment ideology is so far apart, that consensus has to be found, because everything has stalled apparently.
I'm sure I read a couple of days ago the lowest amount of renewables in years were installed in the last 12 months.
Well that wont work, if you want to shut down coal.

 

[SirRumpole]

I wonder if Dutton will correct his gigantic error on nuclear power in Canada.

60% of Canada's power comes from hydro, 15% is nuclear.

Doesn't give you a lot of faith in Dutton's policies, but certainly indicates the value of hydro if Canada's power prices are a third of ours.

 

[Smurf1976]

certainly indicates the value of hydro if Canada's power prices are a third of ours.

Yep. There's a good reason why engineers and utility company management have historically been pretty keen on hydro:

It's cheap.

It's extremely flexible in operation without harming equipment. As a means of providing deep firming, beyond just short term storage, for wind and solar it just works.

Even with the drought risk factored in, it's as good as anything else for reliability.

Nothing else comes close for durability.

That's not to deny it has downsides with environmental impact and so on but there's a reason it's long been a favoured option for those looking at it from a non-political perspective.

 

[Smurf1976]

essentially roof top solar is killing everything - including large scale solar farms.

A great illustration of that in SA today.

Chart shows large solar farms only:

No the sun didn't disappear, the problem wasn't clouds, they were simply shut off intentionally as not needed due to the abundance of rooftop solar on a day of relatively low consumption - a fine, sunny and mild temperature Sunday.

Needless to say this isn't helping the economics of solar farms. It's not encouraging investors to put $ into building more of them when the output isn't being sold.

At a consumer level though, well my water heater running during the middle of the day is heating hot water using electricity with zero additional emissions from its use, simply putting a bit of that otherwise curtailed solar to use. Now my individual household isn't going to make much difference, but if everyone switched from gas to electric water heating, and they were all run when there's abundant supply, that would address two problems at once. Cuts gas use and CO2 and provides a viable market for the otherwise surplus solar energy.

 

[sptrawler]

Needless to say this isn't helping the economics of solar farms. It's not encouraging investors to put $ into building more of them when the output isn't being sold.

As we've said earlier in the thread, this is going to be a big issue, no return on investment, yet we need twice as much installed than is really required.
Interesting point is arriving, I can't see how the amount required will be installed without massive Govt subsidies, time will tell I guess.

 

[sptrawler]

The transition is getting ugly in W.A, as the walls close in, we don't have any fast easy answers here. There isn't another State to bail us out, we have shut down a lot of flexible generation and coal supply is becoming a massive problem, someone will have to come up with a plan B very quickly.

Trashed fortunes and favour lost: Inside the 'madness' of a state's energy woes

Once a source of pride and prosperity, a foreign-owned Australian coal mine is now a byword for debt and despair. Observers say it's also a time bomb that's set to explode on energy users.

www.abc.net.au

In WA, which for much of the recent past has seen its electricity system as a source of pride amid ever-growing challenges in the eastern states, the problems at Griffin Coal are no secret.

The mine, which indirectly helps supply about 15 per cent of the power on the state's main grid, is broke.
Its Indian owners, including the giant private bank ICICI and a mysterious conglomerate Sindhu Trade Links, are owed an eye-watering $1.4 billion.

The WA government has effectively been propping the place up, shelling out subsidies worth almost $30 million between May and August just to keep the operation afloat.

But for all worries about the costs to the state of keeping Griffin alive, an even bigger shock is rapidly coming down the line.

And that's the cost to energy consumers.

"It's the usual madness of policy," a businessman involved in negotiations over Griffin said.
Last month, the body that runs WA's biggest electricity market warned about the heightened risks of supply shortages in the coming years unless new capacity was "urgently" built.

While reasons included increased demand and the variability of renewable energy, at the heart of the warning were deep misgivings about the reliability of WA's fuel supplies.

And no supplies are less secure in WA these days than those for coal.

Griffin's long descent into dysfunction has precipitated a full-blown crisis in WA's domestic coal industry and left the power system teetering on the edge.
Bluewaters Power Station, which is Griffin's biggest customer, has been running well below its capacity of 440MW because the miner cannot deliver it enough coal.

Synergy, the state-owned power provider, has been forced to import coal from New South Wales at great cost to ensure it doesn't run out.

What's more, the shortage has run headlong into a squeeze on the WA gas market, where prices are now even higher than those on the east coast.

Now the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), which is responsible for keeping the lights on, is scrambling to stop the situation spiralling out of control.
Ray Challen, the former top energy adviser to the WA government, estimated there would need to be an extra 648MW of capacity in the system within a couple of years.

"If the price paid for reserve capacity was to remain the same in 2025-26 as will apply in 2024-25 ($194,784 per megawatt), this will impose an additional annual cost on electricity customers of $126 million," Dr Challen noted.

Dr Challen said the cost — if passed through to households — was likely to be about $30 a year.

But he said the costs were a simple reflection of the challenges in switching from old and increasingly unreliable coal and gas plants to a new system running largely on intermittent green energy.

 

[SirRumpole]

The transition is getting ugly in W.A, as the walls close in, we don't have any fast easy answers here. There isn't another State to bail us out, we have shut down a lot of flexible generation and coal supply is becoming a massive problem, someone will have to come up with a plan B very quickly.

Trashed fortunes and favour lost: Inside the 'madness' of a state's energy woes

Once a source of pride and prosperity, a foreign-owned Australian coal mine is now a byword for debt and despair. Observers say it's also a time bomb that's set to explode on energy users.

www.abc.net.au

In WA, which for much of the recent past has seen its electricity system as a source of pride amid ever-growing challenges in the eastern states, the problems at Griffin Coal are no secret.

The mine, which indirectly helps supply about 15 per cent of the power on the state's main grid, is broke.
Its Indian owners, including the giant private bank ICICI and a mysterious conglomerate Sindhu Trade Links, are owed an eye-watering $1.4 billion.

The WA government has effectively been propping the place up, shelling out subsidies worth almost $30 million between May and August just to keep the operation afloat.

But for all worries about the costs to the state of keeping Griffin alive, an even bigger shock is rapidly coming down the line.

And that's the cost to energy consumers.

"It's the usual madness of policy," a businessman involved in negotiations over Griffin said.
Last month, the body that runs WA's biggest electricity market warned about the heightened risks of supply shortages in the coming years unless new capacity was "urgently" built.

While reasons included increased demand and the variability of renewable energy, at the heart of the warning were deep misgivings about the reliability of WA's fuel supplies.

And no supplies are less secure in WA these days than those for coal.

Griffin's long descent into dysfunction has precipitated a full-blown crisis in WA's domestic coal industry and left the power system teetering on the edge.
Bluewaters Power Station, which is Griffin's biggest customer, has been running well below its capacity of 440MW because the miner cannot deliver it enough coal.

Synergy, the state-owned power provider, has been forced to import coal from New South Wales at great cost to ensure it doesn't run out.

What's more, the shortage has run headlong into a squeeze on the WA gas market, where prices are now even higher than those on the east coast.

Now the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), which is responsible for keeping the lights on, is scrambling to stop the situation spiralling out of control.
Ray Challen, the former top energy adviser to the WA government, estimated there would need to be an extra 648MW of capacity in the system within a couple of years.

"If the price paid for reserve capacity was to remain the same in 2025-26 as will apply in 2024-25 ($194,784 per megawatt), this will impose an additional annual cost on electricity customers of $126 million," Dr Challen noted.

Dr Challen said the cost — if passed through to households — was likely to be about $30 a year.

But he said the costs were a simple reflection of the challenges in switching from old and increasingly unreliable coal and gas plants to a new system running largely on intermittent green energy.

A couple of years ago, WA had no power problems. Just shows things can go pear shaped pretty quickly.

It all started with privatisation, what a stuff up that was

 

[sptrawler]

A couple of years ago, WA had no power problems. Just shows things can go pear shaped pretty quickly.

It all started with privatisation, what a stuff up that was

W.A didn't privatise, they allowed a couple of others to enter the market, but the State Government owned the major part of the generation by a large margin.
It just shows it can't all be put down to privatisation, a lot comes down to just appeasing the ranters and chanters, rather than letting the experts run the show.

The big problem we have is a lot of the generation that has been closed down and scrapped, could burn coal, gas or oil it was very flexible.
Now we have a situation where the coal supply is shaky and renewables aren't helping without storage, meanwhile no one is putting in at call generation.
As is normal when ideology catches up with reality, those who have been driving the process, put their hands up and say "why didn't you tell us"?
The answer is they did, it's just those making the decisions don't listen, they are too busy trying to show how terrific they are by closing down nasty coal.
Well it is going to get interesting, lucky we have a small load and a lot of money.

 

[Smurf1976]

A couple of years ago, WA had no power problems. Just shows things can go pear shaped pretty quickly.

Energy supply systems are one of those things that work until they don't. Once the tipping point is reached, it turns to crisis real quick.

In terms of underlying causes it's not so much private versus public ownership as it's a market versus monopoly.

A single utility, regardless of who owns it, can get the job done. There's countless examples in public ownership, all the old Australian state authorities, and likewise there's plenty of privately owned examples overseas and for that matter in the gas industry well AGL successfully ran the show with Sydney's gas for more than 160 years.

Where it goes wrong is with a competitive market that enables someone to come in, cherry pick the low hanging fruit at great profit, then leave all the rest to someone else who's now starved of funds with which to do it. That works in a truly competitive market, for example retail shops, but it doesn't work when there's only one system, the power system, such that anyone's failure is everyone's problem.

That latter point is, at the fundamental business and political level, why it's not working. There's nothing at all in common between running a power system versus running retail shops, hairdressing salons or stage shows. Those other things are all standalone independent operations, failure of one band to perform doesn't stop anyone else performing, but that isn't the case with electrical power systems where any one failure is everyone's problem.

No add in political ideology and a refusal to allow experts to get on with it on top of all that and it's a recipe for disaster.

The other elephant in the room in WA is that at midday today, rooftop solar supplied 74.8% of load on the SWIS. That's forcing plant to be cycled as such. 3 coal units were on at minimum load during that period, a fourth is being started and stopped daily as peaking plant, meanwhile combined cycle gas also all off during the middle of the day then back on for the peak. Also curtailment of large scale solar and wind during the middle of the day.

Past 3 days shows it all pretty clearly.

Ultimately if society wants all this to work then physics has to prevail. It doesn't bend to the ideas of politics. That doesn't mean renewables can't work but it does mean integrated, coordinated approach is required.

 

[sptrawler]

There is a massive push for storage, but one it will take time and two that's what we don't have. It will no doubt get very exciting for those operating the system.

The McGowan Government has allocated $2.3 billion towards two new battery energy storage systems in the 2023-24 State Budget, including a second, larger system at the Kwinana site. The proposed big battery will provide 200 megawatts (MW) of capacity with 800 megawatt hours - four times the energy storage of stage one.

Kwinana: First big battery in world's biggest isolated grid finally gets registered | RenewEconomy

The 200MWh Kwinana big battery - the first in the world's biggest isolated grid - finally gets its registration after some six months of delay.

reneweconomy.com.au

The Kwinana battery is the first of a major new commitment to battery storage in WA. The state-owned Synergy has announced plans for more than 1,100MW of capacity, and French developer Neoen plans a 1GW (and possibly two hour battery) at Collie, the state’s centre of coal generation.

It is also reportedly looking at another 200MW big battery at Muchea, just north of Perth.

 

[sptrawler]

Energy supply systems are one of those things that work until they don't. Once the tipping point is reached, it turns to crisis real quick.

In terms of underlying causes it's not so much private versus public ownership as it's a market versus monopoly.

A single utility, regardless of who owns it, can get the job done. There's countless examples in public ownership, all the old Australian state authorities, and likewise there's plenty of privately owned examples overseas and for that matter in the gas industry well AGL successfully ran the show with Sydney's gas for more than 160 years.

Where it goes wrong is with a competitive market that enables someone to come in, cherry pick the low hanging fruit at great profit, then leave all the rest to someone else who's now starved of funds with which to do it. That works in a truly competitive market, for example retail shops, but it doesn't work when there's only one system, the power system, such that anyone's failure is everyone's problem.

That latter point is, at the fundamental business and political level, why it's not working. There's nothing at all in common between running a power system versus running retail shops, hairdressing salons or stage shows. Those other things are all standalone independent operations, failure of one band to perform doesn't stop anyone else performing, but that isn't the case with electrical power systems where any one failure is everyone's problem.

No add in political ideology and a refusal to allow experts to get on with it on top of all that and it's a recipe for disaster.

The other elephant in the room in WA is that at midday today, rooftop solar supplied 74.8% of load on the SWIS. That's forcing plant to be cycled as such. 3 coal units were on at minimum load during that period, a fourth is being started and stopped daily as peaking plant, meanwhile combined cycle gas also all off during the middle of the day then back on for the peak. Also curtailment of large scale solar and wind during the middle of the day.

Past 3 days shows it all pretty clearly.

View attachment 162965

Ultimately if society wants all this to work then physics has to prevail. It doesn't bend to the ideas of politics. That doesn't mean renewables can't work but it does mean integrated, coordinated approach is required.

W.A smurf is an interesting one from a technical perspective IMO, it has low population density and minimal manufacturing on the SWIS so therefore minimal load, it has a large area with great solar generation and has very strong prevailing winds.
That actually helps massively in W.A's case as can be seen by the chart, I assume yellow is solar and green is wind, they are very complimentary.
What W.A lacks is the ability to deploy serious hydro, if we could it would be the perfect place for a renewable sustainable power grid.
But knowing what we do, there is a lot of gas generation and coal generation to be replaced and the only real storage medium is batteries.
Well at the end of the day we all use battery tools a lot and they have moved along and improved massively, but they do die.

When I look at the chart you have posted, I see a huge reliance on wind, we know the sun goes down as regular as clockwork, but if the wind isn't blowing there will be a huge demand on the batteries.
What's your take, considering hydro really wont cut it environmentally and well it just wont, so what would be the goto when the wind isn't blowing overnight as on the 23 Sept in your post? And if that happens for a couple of nights followed by a couple of overcast days?

By the way I presume the blue is the new BIG Kwinana battery, nice.

 

[Smurf1976]

That actually helps massively in W.A's case as can be seen by the chart, I assume yellow is solar and green is wind

Yes.

Yellow = Solar
Green = Wind
Orange = Gas
Black = Coal
Blue = Battery

 

[Smurf1976]

What's your take, considering hydro really wont cut it environmentally and well it just wont, so what would be the goto when the wind isn't blowing overnight as on the 23 Sept in your post?

My personal view is anywhere that can't or doesn't want to develop hydro and which also doesn't have nuclear is in for some painful decisions.

In a technical sense I'd expect WA will try and make it work with gas turbines fuelled by hydrogen but the problem's going to be the "big picture" economics of all this rather than the technical.

Looking at WA final energy consumption, that is energy as supplied to consumers (eg consumers buy electricity or they buy petrol, they don't buy wind or crude oil) it's all rather telling. Rounded to the nearest 0.1%:

Coal = 3.6%
Gas = 39.0%
Oil = 40.7%
Electricity = 15.5%
Non-electricity renewables (eg firewood) = 1.3%

Noting that the oil use is mostly diesel, petrol, aviation fuel etc.

So the real issue for WA going forward isn't so much about electricity in the SWIS but rather it's gas and coal supplied direct to industry and households for use "as gas" rather than for use as electricity. That plus the inevitability of EV's in a place with extremely long distances between towns.

To replace that with electricity for process heat etc requires a major upscaling in electricity production and also requires that electricity be dirt cheap. That's where this hits the wall in my view - there are workarounds to keep the lights on but firing boilers and kilns is a far harder problem to resolve economically. Technically it's easy but economically it's a deal breaker.

I don't actually have a solution for that beyond saying I expect before too much longer WA will move to a "no new gas exports" policy. The gas companies will hate it, it'll be one hell of a crap fight politically, but I expect it will happen once reality sinks in that gas is going to be needed for a long time to come and isn't about to be rendered obsolete.

For the record, looking at the two states with the highest % of renewable electricity is a reminder of the realities here:

SA:
Coal =1.3%
Gas = 15.5%
Oil = 55.8%
Electricity = 22.2%
Non-electricity renewables = 5.0%

Tasmania:
Coal = 8.2%
Gas = 5.2%
Oil = 40.1%
Electricity = 40.4%
Non-electricity renewables = 6.2%

So even the states with predominantly renewable electricity still have a substantial use of fossil fuels simply because electricity isn't all or in most places even the majority of energy used. There's still fuel used directly for transport as well as boilers, kilns, cooking, hot water, heating and so on. The coal in SA and Tas is all going into industry, none of it's going into power stations, and that 3.6% coal figure for WA is direct use, it doesn't include coal-fired electricity.

Direct use fuel is an easy problem to solve technically but a very hard one economically and in WA's case that's where the big problem exists. Sort out the SWIS and even if that used no gas at all, there's still a lot of gas used as such. I expect some panic once reality hits that power stations aren't the only problem with fuel supply in WA, there's direct use too.

Figures above are all Australian Government official statistics for 2020-21.

Now for some AEMO data:

WA gas consumption 23 September 2023 = 1652 TJ
Gas consumption for electricity generation into the SWIS = 164.7 TJ

 

[sptrawler]

Thanks @Smurf1976 , yes no matter how I look at the issue, due to W.A's fairly flat topography I really don't see many options for W.A.
Certainly interesting times ahead, the last thing this all needs is a blinkered approach as can be seen the amount of blue the battery supplies there is a long, long, long way to go to get rid of the orange and black.
The rest of the World must be watching on, as we bounce down the bumpy road to either success, or an absolute catastrophe.
As you know if we hit the point of regular system failure, it will be hard to turn things around, once you have an unreliable electrical system it is hard to do business and confidence disappears. Plus as you try to install enough to cover increased demand, the pressure on the existing infrastructure causes more stress related failures, there is rumblings in the media about no new onshore gas can be exported.
Even if it was decided to install nuclear, from where we are now, to actually having one running would be a long time just from a knowledge point alone.
Someone needs to really start and have a sensible discussion, as to what can be done, before time leaves no options.