The future of energy generation and storage

[SirRumpole]

Sorry about your cat problem Smurph, but thanks for the update.

The power generation situation sounds grim around the country. I agree that someone should publicise these problems so that the pollies may be stirred into action.

 

[Tisme]

Sorry about your cat problem Smurph, but thanks for the update.

The power generation situation sounds grim around the country. I agree that someone should publicise these problems so that the pollies may be stirred into action.

I think even the most stupid of us can predict that if you add another uncontrollable variable of cost to the consumer equation (i.e. profit) the other variables will necessarily suffer. The smarter of us know that equation is an exponential.

In most industry, fixed routine preventative maintenance has become more a paperwork function and in its place condition monitoring, borrowed from the aviation industry since the 80's, is the great do something prevaricator. We are coming to the horizon many in industry foretold 30 years ago when machinery fatigue would overcome the management blindfolds. Of course we were supposed to have moved on technically and had no use for old monolithic technology by now.

 

[SirRumpole]

I think even the most stupid of us can predict that if you add another uncontrollable variable of cost to the consumer equation (i.e. profit) the other variables will necessarily suffer. The smarter of us know that equation is an exponential.

In most industry, fixed routine preventative maintenance has become more a paperwork function and in its place condition monitoring, borrowed from the aviation industry since the 80's, is the great do something prevaricator. We are coming to the horizon many in industry foretold 30 years ago when machinery fatigue would overcome the management blindfolds. Of course we were supposed to have moved on technically and had no use for old monolithic technology by now.

It's about time essential infrastructure like this goes back under state control under the auspices of engineers not accountants.

 

[Smurf1976]

All units are running again at Hazelwood, unit 3 returned to service overnight two days ago, but none of them are running to full capacity.

That doesn't change the overall situation really, it's just a short term patch up to get it going for a while longer.

 

[Ferret]

Sorry if slightly of topic, but I saw this story and felt the need to rant about our management of gas resources.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-...alia-about-to-import/8055164?section=business

Australia is soon to become the world’s largest LNG exporter, but it’s recently been reported that treasury is receiving a pittance in revenue from the ballooning LNG exports.

Unfettered capitalism has resulted in three competing LNG export facilities being constructed in Gladstone. These are ramping up exports, but are barely profitable and may be losing money. They are sucking up available gas to the extent that gas for domestic users is in short supply and domestic gas prices are rising sharply for industry and consumers.

And now the icing on the cake – we might have to build LNG import facilities and import gas for domestic use.
We once had an abundance of gas resources and cheap gas was giving local industry a competitive advantage and keeping household costs manageable.

Australia’s management of our gas resources is an absolute disgrace.

 

[SirRumpole]

Australia’s management of our gas resources is an absolute disgrace.

Correct, and that has been pointed out in this thread before.

Why not put an export tax on LNG exports ? The government would get revenue, and if exporting the gas was un-competitive then the producers could dump it on the local market at cheaper prices.

This government is too welded to big corporate donors to go down that route though.

 

[Smurf1976]

Sorry if slightly of topic, but I saw this story and felt the need to rant about our management of gas resources.

No argument from me on that one. Gas was probably the single biggest natural advantage we had after iron ore and coal but we've blown it big time.

Export the gas, more than doubling prices to our own industry, and neither the LNG operators nor government is making any real profit out of doing so. Meanwhile the industry's at war with farmers and others over the environmental impact of it all. It's pure madness really.

As one example of the impact, at Tamar Valley power station (Tas) we've got an extremely efficient gas-fired generating unit (the most efficient one in Australia) and with pre-LNG gas prices we could run that base load (24/7) and produce cheap electricity with emissions about 65% lower than coal-fired generation in NSW using black coal, or about 75% lower than brown coal in Victoria. And since Tas, Vic, SA, NSW, Qld are all electrically interconnected running that plant would indeed mean less generation elsewhere from more polluting sources. And we could also, of course, build more plants like this one in other states if we chose to in order to replace coal.

With today's gas prices there's simply no way that Tamar Valley or any other gas-fired plant can generate at a cost that's competitive for Australian industry. Hydro Tas plans to put it back into production in early 2017 not because it's physically needed or cheap, but simply because power prices in Vic (and other states) are forecast to be high enough to make it marginally profitable to run it (also high enough to kill Australian industry even further).

It's a similar story with the technically similar but moderately less efficient (older design but still pretty good) plant at Pelican Point (SA). It can't generate internationally competitive power at these gas prices but the owners will run it if the power price is even higher than the gas price and it's profitable to run. They've had it shut down in recent times but running it a bit lately (though not at full capacity).

What we've done with gas in Australia is a bit like finding a huge gold nugget then breaking it up and selling it as gravel to use as road base. Madness and yet we've actually done it.

On another matter, I hear there's an aviation fuel shortage at the moment with Melbourne airport running low enough that international flights are diverting via Sydney to take on fuel. That shows just how vulnerable we are with such high reliance on imports - apparently a load of imported fuel had quality problems and we simply don't have a sufficient stockpile to cope. Crazy when you consider that every other developed country, and many poorer nations, holds the recommended 90 days worth of imports in stock and we're the only developed country on earth that doesn't.

 

[Smurf1976]

The Melbourne Airport fuel crisis is another example of just about everyone being kept in the dark until just before the crisis occurs. There's a pattern starting to emerge with that approach.

Not to worry though, the Victorian government's onto it. They've written some letters and are prattling on about competition, neither of which does anything whatsoever to fix the problem (indeed competition may well make it worse if it encourages suppliers to cut costs).

http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/melbourne-airport-fuel-supply/

The real worry is it all shows just how ineffective our governments have become. Letters and economic theories as a response to an real, physical shortage of something rather important due to a lack of emergency preparedness isn't going to cut it but it's the best they can come up with (and for the record I'd be equally critical if the Vic government were of a different political persuasion but taking the same approach as they almost certainly would).

 

[Smurf1976]

All units are running again at Hazelwood, unit 3 returned to service overnight two days ago

That didn't last long. Rapid (for a coal-fired plant) shut down of Hazelwood unit 3 this morning over a period of about 15 minutes. Given the recent history and relatively fast shutdown it does look somewhat ominous although I haven't confirmed what's going on.

Unit 5, which has had rather a lot of stops and starts in recent times, is also down at the moment but that looks to be planned with an orderly shutdown in the normal manner early this morning.

Main point in posting isn't about the details though. Just pointing out that the place seems to have become incredibly run down and that even though official closure is still about 18 weeks away, whatever power comes out of it between now and then isn't going to be overly reliable.

 

[macca]

That didn't last long. Rapid (for a coal-fired plant) shut down of Hazelwood unit 3 this morning over a period of about 15 minutes. Given the recent history and relatively fast shutdown it does look somewhat ominous although I haven't confirmed what's going on.

Unit 5, which has had rather a lot of stops and starts in recent times, is also down at the moment but that looks to be planned with an orderly shutdown in the normal manner early this morning.

Main point in posting isn't about the details though. Just pointing out that the place seems to have become incredibly run down and that even though official closure is still about 18 weeks away, whatever power comes out of it between now and then isn't going to be overly reliable.

I guess the first test will be the next heat wave in SA and Vic, hopefully those that Must have power for medical reasons are well prepared.

 

[Tink]

Agree, macca.

Victoria has had tragedy with these two culprits before.

We haven't forgotten.

 

[SirRumpole]

Integrating renewable energy into the national grid, a good discussion.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational...ergy-and-the-national-grid/7987134#transcript

 

[Tisme]

Agree, macca.

Victoria has had tragedy with these two culprits before.

We haven't forgotten.

Tink what has actually driven the problems with power down there?

I'm guessing it's mix of things, but people love to just focus on one or two things, perhaps wrongly.

For example is suitable coal supply a problem, is profit motive in privatisation a reason for breakdowns, is it really renewable industry versus polluting, politics for votes, was it inevitable under any party regime, etc.

 

[drsmith]

More electricity problems for South Australia,

About 200,000 South Australian homes and businesses lost power overnight due to an outage affecting the interconnector from Victoria.

Just after 1:00am, a problem with the Victorian transmission network during scheduled maintenance cut the electricity supply from the Heywood interconnector, leaving South Australia to manage on its own.

Authorities said load shedding was needed to balance the network and about 220 megawatts of supply was lost.

Power was restored for SA properties before 2:30am and the South Australian network reconnected to the national grid just after 5:00am.

Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis said Victorian authorities would investigate what went wrong during the maintenance work.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-...night-victorian-interconnector-blamed/8082108

 

[Smurf1976]

I'll post some detailed comments in response to recent posts and issues soonish. Just ridiculously busy at the moment - life, work, everything really.

Hazelwood Unit 3, the one which has had the most problems, has come back online this evening (still ramping up at the moment). Let's see how long it lasts this time.....

PS - Even the AEMO "official" data now shows that there's a crisis on the way in Vic and SA in the 2017-18 Summer. And that tends to be a tad optimistic this far out since any short term problem can't be factored in and zero allowance is made for anything that comes up.

More info "soon" (week or so with a bit of luck).

 

[qldfrog]

with a heat wave expected to "heat" us ( ) this week end, this could be the trigger for a massive blackout.What do you think?

 

[SirRumpole]

Should Australia be burning rubbish for electricity?

There are some who believe Australia should be burning its residential and industrial waste for electricity rather than sending it to landfill.

Others, however, maintain that we should be concentrating on reducing the amount of refuse we create rather than burning it.

Waste-to-energy technology is used across the world, with countries including Japan, China and Finland burning rubbish to generate electricity.

The World Bioenergy Association's Andrew Lang said that, by contrast, Melbourne's waste was piling up in a "mountain" at Ravenhall in the city's west.

"All of that material could be producing, for Victoria, probably 500 megawatts of electricity if it was done with the efficient, best-practice systems," he told 774 ABC Melbourne's Jon Faine.

It comes as a Senate committee this week recommended the Federal Government adopt a national plan to manage the retirement of coal-fired power stations.

Planning Panels Victoria is due to report to the Minister for Planning in January regarding a proposal to expand the Ravenhall landfill.
Europe leading the way, says proponent

Mr Lang said there were more than 480 plants across Europe generating electricity by burning combustible, non-recyclable residential and industrial waste.

Countries including Germany, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands had invested heavily in the technology, he said.

He said Australian states such as Victoria could follow Europe's lead.

"Victoria is about the population of Denmark, and Denmark is putting 3.5 million tonnes of this sort of material into its waste-to-energy plants."

He said 20 per cent of central Copenhagen's electricity was generated from the waste of local residents, industries and commerce.
Emissions 'comparable' with natural gas

Mr Lang said he visited a waste-to-energy plant in Finland that processed 320,000 tonnes of rubbish from Helsinki's 1.5 million people.

"They've used that to replace natural gas coming out of Russia," he said.

He said the Helsinki plant was using state-of-the-art technology to filter its emissions.

"The emissions out of the stack were comparable to a gas-fired plant."
Waste-to-energy 'not the most sustainable option'

But sustainability advocate Joost Bakker said waste-to-energy plants were not the "easy fix" that many people thought they were.

He told 774 ABC Melbourne's Clare Bowditch that reducing the amount of packaging society consumes would have greater environmental benefits than burning rubbish.

"My point is we don't need to generate [the waste] in the first place."

During a recent trip to the Netherlands he said he learned there were moves to reduce the amount of rubbish sent to the country's waste-to-energy plants.

"Holland has started to realise that [burning rubbish] is not the most sustainable option," he said.

He said individuals could reduce the amount of rubbish they produced by buying food in bulk and avoiding disposable containers.

"It's also a mindset and a cultural change from us," he said.

"I think our children will say 'look at mum and dad, walking around with these stupid takeaway coffee cups, on their phones ”” we're not going to do that, we're going to do it differently'."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-01/should-australia-be-burning-rubbish-for-electricity/8082768

 

[explod]

In recent years, Chile has invested so much in its solar power industry that the country is now generating more electricity from the sun than it knows what to do with. A new report reveals that spot prices on solar electricity dropped to zero for 113 days of the year through April, and many more days of free solar power are expected to come. Taking advantage of free solar power is a huge benefit for residents, but analysts are concerned about how this will impact the market, since investors and owners of solar power plants may lose money.

http://inhabitat.com/chile-is-generating-so-much-solar-energy-that-its-giving-it-away-for-free/

The installation of solar panels is increasingly noticeable here at Bendigo.

 

[Smurf1976]

with a heat wave expected to "heat" us ( ) this week end, this could be the trigger for a massive blackout.What do you think?

In practice that's unlikely.

The most likely triggers are:

A simultaneous heatwave in Vic and SA combined with low wind speeds. If that happens then blackouts are very likely one Hazelwood shuts. Virtually certain if we're talking about serious heat (say, 45 degrees) and it happens on a working weekday.

A major cold spell in Winter won't directly lead to blackouts on account of generating capacity but is a plausible trigger for a shortfall in gas supply which in turn disables a substantial amount of gas-fired power generation which then puts the lights out. The issue there is that with the demise of Hazelwood, Northern and others there's an increased reliance on gas which brings the problem.

On a state by state basis, Vic and SA are the places with trouble in the near future.

The load shedding in SA this week has been pretty well reported in the media but there's a far bigger problem related to that which I suspect may well end up being the "tipping point" for action.

In short, a 5 hour loss of supply to Alcoa in Victoria this week has lead to aluminium solidifying in the one of pot lines (and there's about 200 pots in that line to my understanding). In short, that's pretty much as bad as it gets when it comes to smelters and we're talking tens if not hundreds of $ millions in lost production and damage here.

The basic issue is that once the metal goes cold, there's no practical way to melt it again in the pots. You can't conduct electricity via anode blocks into metal when there's an impenetrable layer of non-conductive material frozen solid on top of it. Solution = jack hammer it all out and we're talking months of work and hundreds of tonnes of metal here, it's not something that can easily be done.

What happens now is hard to predict other than saying I strongly expect it's going to get nasty at the legal and political level. As with all privately owned utilities and essential services, taxpayers always underwrite risk in practice if nobody else pays up.

 

[Tisme]

..............
In short, a 5 hour loss of supply to Alcoa in Victoria this week has lead to aluminium solidifying in the one of pot lines (and there's about 200 pots in that line to my understanding). In short, that's pretty much as bad as it gets when it comes to smelters and we're talking tens if not hundreds of $ millions in lost production and damage here.

So Ausnet took down one of two 500km supplies from Latrobe Valley to Alcoa for maintenance and the other failed. It was the first time power loss in 30 years. Alcoa's long running, publicly subsidised power deal with SECV ran out Oct31 and a new deal with AGL Loy Yang coal fired in negotiation with Alcoa wanting continued subsidies from beligerant Vic govt.

Alcoa are running at 50% because the solidified pots in one of its two pot lines.

Smurf, did Alcoa to put one of its two lines in standby when one of the two power supply lines is knowingly scheduled out of action and is one of the supply lines redundant?