The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

I believe the problem with increased price is the result of the state owned enterprise being forced to increase prices dramatically in order to show big profits so that the state received a higher sale price of an asset. Then the companies were allowed to increase prices further. Then again the charges associated with distribution, poles and wires as they say, were increased to establish a high value there as well. All gets down to selling off the farm to pay off the bankcard.

No, nothing has been sold, from memory when SECWA was broken up on a brain fart.

Generation couldn't make money, because they were always the generator of last resort, private generators were paid to sit there whether they were required or not.
Barnett, from years ago was minister for energy pre the break up and was always opposed to privatisation.
The situation after the separation of generation, distribution and retail, from memory, left generation with all the residual debt.
To encourage private generation, investors were offered capacity payments to install generation, this didn't require them to operate just be available to operate.
The problem with that was government generators, were still required to generate if required, there was no such requirement put on the private generators(from my knowledge).

Now we have have situation where the Government has no option other than shut down their plant, to force the private generators to produce.

Well that is my understanding.

But you sound as though you have some further knowledge I'm not aware of.

 

[Smurf1976]

So far, so good. Some rain has fallen and there looks to be a lot more on the way especially over the West Coast catchments.

Having so much come down all at once does create some issues in that some of the storages in that part of the system are relatively small relative to potential inflows during a high rainfall event (unavoidable due to topography) and it's obviously important to avoid spilling the incoming water. But any rain's good rain right now so no complaints there, it's just a question of maximising the benefit of what comes down.

Storage is presently at 13.0%, up slightly for the week. That's the first increase since late January and the largest increase, albeit just 0.138% for the week, since mid-September 2015.

 

[sptrawler]

So far, so good. Some rain has fallen and there looks to be a lot more on the way especially over the West Coast catchments.

Having so much come down all at once does create some issues in that some of the storages in that part of the system are relatively small relative to potential inflows during a high rainfall event (unavoidable due to topography) and it's obviously important to avoid spilling the incoming water. But any rain's good rain right now so no complaints there, it's just a question of maximising the benefit of what comes down.

Storage is presently at 13.0%, up slightly for the week. That's the first increase since late January and the largest increase, albeit just 0.138% for the week, since mid-September 2015.

Great news Smurph.

 

[Smurf1976]

I wonder when someone will start getting excited about wholesale pricing?

Prices for this calendar year to date in Qld and NSW are almost back to the level they were at during the carbon tax whilst those in Vic and SA are about half way back from "normal" to that level.

Wallerawang, Munmorah, Redbank, Anglesea and Morwell are all shut down now and not coming back with Northern / Playford B about to join that list this month. Meanwhile Tassie's effectively out of the market, Swanbank is mothballed and bulk gas prices have literally doubled.

If prices were going up due to an actual carbon price then there would be an outcry from one side of politics. So where's the outcry blasting the "competitive market" for raising prices?

Hmm....

 

[sptrawler]

I wonder when someone will start getting excited about wholesale pricing?

Prices for this calendar year to date in Qld and NSW are almost back to the level they were at during the carbon tax whilst those in Vic and SA are about half way back from "normal" to that level.

Wallerawang, Munmorah, Redbank, Anglesea and Morwell are all shut down now and not coming back with Northern / Playford B about to join that list this month. Meanwhile Tassie's effectively out of the market, Swanbank is mothballed and bulk gas prices have literally doubled.

If prices were going up due to an actual carbon price then there would be an outcry from one side of politics. So where's the outcry blasting the "competitive market" for raising prices?

Hmm....

I don't know about over East, but here in the West more State owned coal fired plant will be shut down, due to overcapacity.

I hope it doesn't end in tears.

 

[SirRumpole]

'Grave concerns' Tasmanians will face high power prices due to energy crisis

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-...rned-public-will-pay-for-power-crisis/7381082

 

[SirRumpole]

Hey Smurph , hows the rain been in Tassie lately ?

 

[Smurf1976]

A huge amount of rainfall into the catchment area of a number of smaller storages has given rise to a "use it or lose it" situation with some of those storages going from almost empty to literally full in a matter of days, such has been the extent of the rainfall.

With unusually high winds supplying over 20% of the state's power + generation from the schemes with limited storage capacity it has been possible to:

1. Cease releasing water from the major (long term) storages.

2. Shut down the diesel generators completely.

3. Substantially reduce gas-fired generation.

These charts for some of the smaller storages in the system, located on the West Coast and in the North-West (the Pieman and Mersey-Forth catchments) show it pretty well. A huge inflow and they've gone from almost empty to full real quick.

http://www.hydro.com.au/system/files/water-storage/Web_Lakes_GAIRDNER.pdf

http://www.hydro.com.au/system/files/water-storage/Web_Lakes_MURCHISON.pdf

These are updated constantly so will date in due course. The data does go back 12 months however. The sudden drop in the level at Lake Gairdner prior to the rain was intentional - the water was taken out (used for power generation) once the rain was forecast so as to limit the extent of spill once the rain came. Even that wasn't sufficient however and a bit of spill has occurred despite Wilmot power station running constantly at maximum output to use as much of it as possible.

The major storages remain low but are rising. Lake Gordon has risen over a metre, Great Lake has risen about half a metre so that's some progress although there's still a very long way to go there to get back to decent levels. But overall it's good news in that sense.

Why not just move the water from the small storages into larger ones instead of using it? In short that's due to topography and in general the smaller storages are at lower elevation than the large ones and have major mountains in the way. It could be done if someone's got a few $ billion to spare building tunnels and pumps but that would be an awfully expensive way to generate power given that the present arrangement puts the vast majority of available water to good use anyway. Simply not economic to move the water (and up hill at that) and that's why we ended up with a lot of mostly quite small power stations in 7 separate catchments (that is, using the water where it is naturally and moving the electricity produced to where it's needed) rather than having a few large power stations and moving the water to them. Cheaper and a lot easier and it works in practice.

The only downside with present circumstances is that the weather is also delaying repairs to Basslink but there's a natural hedge there. A weather-related delay doesn't really matter as long as it's also wet and windy in Tasmania since that enables the wind farms and small hydro schemes to carry the load.

Another chart showing recent rainfall on parts of the West Coast:

http://www.hydro.com.au/system/files/water-storage/Web_Rain_ANTHONY.pdf

PS - Whilst 2014 marked the centenary of the Hydro as an organisation, today marks exactly 100 years since its first power station at Waddamana commenced operating with an initial capacity of 7 MW (tiny by today's standards) and a transmission line at 88,000 Volts to Hobart. Waddamana was promptly expanded, reaching 49 MW by 1922 and ran until replaced by the much larger and more efficient Poatina station in 1964 which still operates today.

Today Waddamana remains fully intact (apart from the upper section of the pipeline) and in "like new" condition inside and is open daily to the public as a museum (free admission, just turn up).

 

[Ferret]

Good news Smurf.
It looks like more wind over the next few days too, and some more decent rain for the middle of next week.

 

[SirRumpole]

Good news indeed. I presume most of the rain was "natural" as opposed to seeded ?

 

[Smurf1976]

Good news indeed. I presume most of the rain was "natural" as opposed to seeded ?

Largely natural but every possible opportunity to make it rain is being taken with quite a few successful cloud seeding flights adding to the deluge.

http://www.hydro.com.au/system/files/cloud-seeding/2016/Cloud_seeding_summary_for_2016.pdf

 

[Ferret]

Predicted to bucket down over Tassy on Monday!

 

[Knobby22]

Tassies luck is changing. Good news.
When is basslink going to work again?

 

[Smurf1976]

Tassies luck is changing. Good news.[/CODE]

I'm wondering if we're going to get a repeat of what happened almost half a century ago? It does seem that we've gone from extreme dry to extreme wet "just like that".

1967 = Driest year on record for inflows to the Hydro system

1968 = Fourth wettest year on record for the system as a whole, and for some catchments the wettest on record.

When is basslink going to work again?

Basslink is a privately owned asset (not by Hydro) but they've been saying "mid-June" for quite some time now although this is subject to the risk of weather delaying repairs.

It's no secret that Hydro itself isn't placing too much confidence in when it will be fixed given that the previous two deadlines have been missed by a wide margin.

 

[Smurf1976]

It's all over now for coal in South Australia. That's it, gone.

Unit 1 at Northern Power station, the last operating coal-fired generating unit in SA, was shut down permanently this morning at about 9:45 SA time. Unit 2 closed a few days earlier and the next door Playford B station hasn't run for quite a long time now.

So that's it, no more coal-fired generation in SA. Now let's get cracking and frack those farms in Qld for gas to keep SA's gas-fired stations running...

Meanwhile there's some good news in Tasmania with Hydro storages recording a big jump over the past week, now at 16.27% and rising (compared to 13.0% a week earlier).

Diesel generators haven't been used in the past week in Tas and there has been little operation of the open cycle gas turbines. The combined cycle gas unit is still online but only operating at about 60% of capacity as it's simply not needed with strong winds and such high inflows to the hydro system (which causes some "use it or lose it" issues with the smaller storages).

There's a lot more rain forecast too over the next week.

On a catchment by catchment basis here's the present storage levels versus (previous week).

Great Lake / Arthurs Lake = 16.8% (14.9%)

Gordon = 8.2% (6.6%)

Derwent = 20.5% (15.1%)

King = 43.1% (29.9%)

Pieman = 72.9% (39.9%)

Mersey-Forth = 65.9% (34.1%)

Yolande (Lake Margaret) = 48.5% (32.3%)

The Pieman and Mersey-Forth schemes are running extremely hard at the moment on account of the massive inflows and the need to put that to use in preference to generation from other sources. Lake Margaret, whilst small, is also running nicely with most other production being from the Derwent stations and some from Trevallyn (using South Esk catchment water from downstream of Poatina (Great Lake)).

Poatina (Great Lake) is running below 1% of capacity most of the time (one machine as spinning reserve for the technically inclined) while Gordon is shut down.

Repairs to Basslink are being disrupted by the weather so there could be some further delays there. That's not an immediate problem however given the high inflows and need to operate the Pieman and Mersey-Forth schemes for base load in order to use the incoming water. And if the rain stops, well that should enable the work to recommence to fix Basslink.

 

[sptrawler]

Great news about the Tassie rainfall Smurph, all should be good with a wet winter.

As with you, I think the shutting down of coal fired generation, will be rued in a few generations.
The wastage of gas, at this stage of our transition to renewables, will leave future generations wedged on fuel sources.IMO

 

[Smurf1976]

Great news about the Tassie rainfall Smurph, all should be good with a wet winter

Yep, there's a massive amount of rain falling and the problem of drought has turned to the risk of flood for the western and northern parts of the state. That doesn't fill the major storages but it's putting a lot of water into the system overall, the smaller dams are rising at a rapid rate, so that's definitely good.

It's raining in Hobart but the SE of the state is still fairly dry overall.

As with you, I think the shutting down of coal fired generation, will be rued in a few generations.
The wastage of gas, at this stage of our transition to renewables, will leave future generations wedged on fuel sources.IMO

I get the issue with CO2 but as I see it, we've abandoned a working power station that isn't overly old (commissioned 1985) and also the associated coal mine. Meanwhile SA will be using more gas, a premium resource, to generate power.

Northern Power station, the plant that just closed, was originally built specifically because ETSA was extremely worried about SA's high reliance on gas at the time (was about 70% for electricity back then). They were worried enough to have very seriously considered burning coal at Torrens Island, in the Adelaide metro area, and went as far with that plan as designing the last two boilers (2 x 200 MW) to easily accommodate future coal-firing.

Maybe it will all work out OK but once everything associated with producing gas is considered, not just the upset farmers in Qld but also methane leaks (a potent greenhouse gas) then I'm not convinced that switching from coal to gas is really a good idea overall. The environmental benefit is doubtful once everything is considered but there's a definite loss in terms of a resource and energy security.

 

[Ferret]

Seems the wind just keeps on blowing and the rain keeps falling in Tassy. How are the dam levels looking now Smurf?

I guess this weather is hampering the Basslink repairs. You might soon need the link to export power to the mainland!

 

[Smurf1976]

The Pieman, Mersey-Forth and Lower Derwent systems are all spilling water right now and the inflows are huge. The King, Lake Margaret and Trevallyn schemes also have very rapidly increasing water levels and Trevallyn in particular will quite likely spill.

So we're running the whole state on wind and hydro once again, and doing so with practically no water release from long term storage since there's so much entering the smaller dams that this + wind can supply the whole load.

Gas and diesel are all completely shut down. Gordon (the largest hydro station) is also shut down as is all water release from the headwaters in the Derwent system (Lake King William and Lake Echo). There's minimal release from Great Lake via Poatina power station, being used only for spinning reserve and a bit of peak load generation occasionally.

If Basslink were in operation then we'd be exporting at off-peak times certainly. As it is, in the middle of the night we're having to back off production from power stations where the dam is spilling so that's a 100% waste of the resource at that time. If we could use it then we would of course, but we're already supplying the whole load from hydro + wind so without Basslink there's nowhere for any additional production to go.

At Lake Pieman (Reece Dam) the water level is 2 metres over the top of the spillway so there's a massive flood going down there. It's similar at many of the other smaller storages too.

For anyone wanting to take photos of the flood, Devils Gate and Reece dams are arguably the most spectacular in a visual sense when they spill water. Devils Gate has the huge vertical drop straight off the top of the dam down into the valley, so a man-made waterfall basically, whilst Reece has a rather massive spillway structure with the road (open to the public) going straight over the top so it's easy to get a good view.

The long term storages fill far more slowly, that will take years, but they're certainly rising about as quickly as they ever do at the moment. Lots going in and nothing being drawn out.

This chart of the water level in Lake Pieman (Reece Dam) puts the huge inflows into perspective. http://www.hydro.com.au/system/files/water-storage/Web_Lakes_PIEMAN.pdf

Output from Reece power station was low until the beginning of May but has been running heavily since then due to the increase in inflows (output from other hydro schemes, diesel and gas being reduced accordingly).

 

[SirRumpole]

Amazing how the situation turned around so quickly.

Nature is wonderful.