The future of energy generation and storage

[sptrawler]

The Federal Government to underwrite the development of the Tassie battery, which will unlock 1,200MW of new renewable generation.
The project will be led by Hydro Tasmania, with the help of the Federal Government ARENA Agency.

https://www.hydro.com.au/news/media...dorsement-to-accelerate-battery-of-the-nation

https://arena.gov.au/

 

[sptrawler]

For those who care to read what the experts recommended, late last year, which in reality is a couple of months ago.
https://aemo.com.au/energy-systems/...stem-plan-isp/2020-integrated-system-plan-isp

A summary of the recommendations, which one would hope a Government policy is derived from, as against asking for a policy for the last four years, based on F#$k all but ranting and chanting.
Now there is something to measure achievements against, as there is an ongoing adjustment to the changing generation profile and transmission reconfiguration.
These are a summary of recommendation:

• Rooftop solar capacity is expected to double or even triple, providing up to 22% of total energy by 2040.
• More than 30GW of large-scale renewable energy is needed to replace coal-fired generation by 2040, with 63 per cent of Australia’s coal-fired generation set to retire by then.
• Up to 21GW of new dispatchable resources are needed to back up renewables, in the form of utility-scale pumped hydro or battery storage, demand response such as demand-side participation, and distributed batteries participating as virtual power plants.
• System services including voltage control, system strength, frequency management, power system inertia and dispatchability all need to be managed as the generation mix changes.
• Targeted and strategic investment in the grid is needed to balance resources across states and unlock much needed Renewable Energy Zones (REZ).

You may note in my post #3896, a renewable energy zone in NSW, is mentioned.

 

[Smurf1976]

Looks as though the East Coast has got some gas reserves set aside, for generation.

The big problem with gas is that for the past third of a century pretty much everyone has seen it as the solution to some problem.

The Australian Labor Party, Margaret Thatcher, BHP, Rio Tinto, Greenpeace and an assortment of local councils are an unlikely bunch to have anything at all in common but they do when it comes to gas.

Many associate the Coalition, or COALition as they prefer to call it, with coal. I won't argue about that but to the extent that's true, it could also be said that the ALP has been pretty close to the gas industry since the 1980's.

Thatcher liked gas since it was one of the keys to smashing the coal unions in the UK. Not many jobs to be had running gas turbines and it was a direct alternative to coal. That it just happened to greatly lower CO2 emissions made it an easier sell once that issue entered the mainstream consciousness.

Mining companies jumped on board because they needed power in the middle of nowhere. With governments not threatening to tax it as with diesel, and the simplicity of just plonking a pipeline in or even on the ground, it's a winner.

Greenpeace liked it because it seemed the easiest solution to avoiding Chernobyl Mk 2 and it also offered an alternative to coal. Plenty of other environmental groups have jumped on the gas bandwagon over the years, seeing it as preferable to everything from transmission lines to coal.

During the carbon tax era in Australia, there was very strong support from those on the "environmental" side for building a 2GW baseload gas-fired power station in Victoria to partly replace coal. Energy Australia almost went ahead and did it, all that stopped them was the political instability around it all.

Local councils liked it too. It's one sure way to get wood smoke out of the air if everyone heats with gas.

And of course households, commercial building managers and manufacturing companies have likewise been more than happy to use an energy source that turns up via a simple pipe in the ground, creates no waste to dispose of, needs little or no labour to use and which raises no objections.

And so on. Pretty much everyone's seen gas as the solution to something or at least a "less bad" alternative.

Trouble is, as was pointed out on this forum a decade ago and has been noted by many over literally the past 50 years, gas is a finite resource and in terms of conventional reservoirs a fairly limited one. If we're going to use it then over time the harder, more costly and more environmentally damaging sources of supply will inevitably be brought into production to supply demand.

That it has come to the point where the east coast (which in this context means the whole country except WA and NT) of Australia finds itself short on gas is a classic case of lack of foresight. Failing to grasp that there's no magic pudding, it's a finite resource, and that exporting two thirds of production is a sure fire way to deplete the currently producing fields rather quickly.

I'm not arguing that we should frack all the farmland and so on but there's a reality of numbers at work here. Can't burn it without producing it and all up rather a lot of gas consuming infrastructure has been built which now needs gas to operate.

 

[sptrawler]

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Trouble is, as was pointed out on this forum a decade ago and has been noted by many over literally the past 50 years, gas is a finite resource and in terms of conventional reservoirs a fairly limited one. If we're going to use it then over time the harder, more costly and more environmentally damaging sources of supply will inevitably be brought into production to supply demand.

That it has come to the point where the east coast (which in this context means the whole country except WA and NT) of Australia finds itself short on gas is a classic case of lack of foresight. Failing to grasp that there's no magic pudding, it's a finite resource, and that exporting two thirds of production is a sure fire way to deplete the currently producing fields rather quickly.

I'm not arguing that we should frack all the farmland and so on but there's a reality of numbers at work here. Can't burn it without producing it and all up rather a lot of gas consuming infrastructure has been built which now needs gas to operate.

So true smurf, we discussed this a decade ago, gas is too good a fuel to be pushing through boilers, or gas turbines, it basically is the only clean go to fuel that can instantly replace oil.
The problem is we are going to burn it at a ever increasing rate, as it replaces coal, I just hope the transition to renewables happens as quick as the ranters and chanters want it to.
But the reality is IMO, it won't and I think we will run out of gas before we can run a viable World economy on renewables.
So IMO it wont end nicely, but I wont be here to see it.
Just my opinion.
P.S that is unless they embrace thorium reactors.

 

[sptrawler]

Another massive subsidy to get fossil fuels into the grid while they otherwise remain in a policy vacuum.
Also from the press release:
"An undertaking from the NSW Government to remove barriers to coal supply to the Mount Piper Power Station."
So much for Morrison's action on climate!

Hey Rob, remember when we were talking about all the pumped storage, that is going to be required?
I said there will be a lot of backlash against it, that would make it difficult to achieve the storage, you as usual said that is rubbish and then continued to deride me about it.
Well here is the latest on Snowy 2.0, which is a pretty integral part of the renewable story.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-01/snowy-2.0-environment-concerns/11563048

 

[rederob]

On one hand I agree.

On the other well it’s silly to have the newest coal-fired plant in NSW being constrained in operation due to insufficient coal with the gap filled by higher emissions sources.

Given they are approving a gas supply contract surely they could convert it to the lesser pollutant.

 

[sptrawler]

Given they are approving a gas supply contract surely they could convert it to the lesser pollutant.

Maybe they are, maybe it is going to replace older less efficient and less reliable older plant first?

 

[rederob]

Maybe they are, maybe it is going to replace older less efficient and less reliable older plant first?

You don't approve what you don't need, unless you are incompetent.

 

[sptrawler]

You don't approve what you don't need, unless you are incompetent.

Ill let everyone else judge that one.

 

[rederob]

Ill let everyone else judge that one.

Seriously!
Anyone committed to reducing emissions would have conditioned the financing on the basis of a gas conversion. But Morrison is wedded to coal.

 

[sptrawler]

Australian Federal Government Renewable Energy Agency, to help fund the first pumped storage facility in South Australia.
That is https://arena.gov.au/

https://eutility.com.au/article/agl-energyaustralia-vie-for-40m-pumped-hydro-funding/
From the article:
AGL Energy and EnergyAustralia have muscled in on an opportunity to secure federal government funding to support pumped hydro storage projects in South Australia.

The two will face off against Trevor St Baker’s Delta Energy and newcomer Rise Renewables for $40 million of funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency to fast-track the first pumped hydro storage project in South Australia and beef up security of supply.

ARENA chief executive Darren Miller said that with half of South Australia’s energy generation already coming from renewables and rising, there was an increasing need for energy storage “to firm and balance the system in that state”.

 

[sptrawler]

It will be interesting to see how many runs are on the board, for the Federal Government by the next election, maybe that is why you aren't hearing much from the opposition?
Maybe they aren't keen on blowing their feet off, could be a much smarter Labour Party IMO.
Which is a real breath of fresh air, rather than ranting and chanting, they are taking a measured approach.

 

[sptrawler]

The Hornsdale Power Reserve Battery (Tesla Big Battery) to get a 50% capacity upgrade, the Federal Government ARENA agency to contribute $8m toward the upgrade.

https://www.pv-magazine-australia.c...50-bigger-upgraded-to-provide-system-inertia/

 

[sptrawler]

The Federal Government ARENA agency to contribute $24m toward Alinta/ Fortescue solar/gas hybrid power hub in the Pilbara of Western Australia
https://reneweconomy.com.au/fortesc...use-solar-to-power-huge-iron-ore-mines-14603/
From the article:
Power utility Alinta Energy and resources giant Fortescue Metals have won federal government backing for their plans to help power the miner’s Pilbara iron ore operations solar and battery storage.
All told, the solar and storage are expected to displace around 100 million litres a year of diesel currently used in the Christmas Creek and Cloudbreak power stations.

The project will go ahead with $24.2 million in funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), and $90 million from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF), subject to ratification from the W.A. government.

 

[sptrawler]

At least the Government is trying to get ahead of the curve, they are funding $15m into end of life issues for solar panels, which obviously will become a real issue in a few years time.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/12...rch-funding-into-end-of-life-solar-pv-issues/
From the article:
At the National Smart Energy Summit in Sydney earlier this week, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) CEO Audrey Zibelman made the exciting claim that by 2040, 25% of Australia’s electricity will come from rooftop solar. With this increasing rate of PV deployment, it is only logical that ARENA will provide significant funding for research to reduce the cost of sustainably managing panels at the end of their life cycles.

ARENA’s funding round aims to improve the economics of recycling, specifically concerning upfront design. It is designed to improve the management of recovered materials, while facilitating the development of innovative ways to reuse, repurpose, and recycle used panel components. ARENA believes the savings made in such areas could significantly lower the overall cost of both large-scale solar PV and rooftop PV generation by responsibly managing waste.

“Currently, solar PV panel recycling adds a cost to the supply chain,” said Darren Miller, CEO of the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). “R&D can help find innovative solutions to reduce this cost, enabling sustainable and cost-effective management of solar panels at the end of their life.”

You never know, it may stop a recurrence of this problem?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05...overnment-for-compensation-pink-batts/7441782

 

[Smurf1976]

Given they are approving a gas supply contract surely they could convert it to the lesser pollutant.

Noting that you didn't suggest converting all coal-fired generation to gas, but to put some figures on it (using government data) for the whole country and noting that all figures are annual:

Coal input to power stations = 1642 PJ
Gas input to power stations = 572 PJ
Petroleum input to power stations = 51 PJ

Coal used for all other purposes (mostly manufacturing) = 114 PJ
Gas used for all other purposes = 943 PJ
Petroleum used for all other purposes = 2264 PJ

Gas exported = 3376 PJ
Gas imported = 187 PJ (some production which comes ashore in the NT is technically an import since it's from foreign waters offshore. Physically though the gas lands in Australia).

An issue with gas is that exports occur from WA, NT and Qld whilst the other states are becoming somewhat physically short on supply. There's no current gas production of any significance in NSW, ACT or Tas whilst reserves are seriously depleted in SA and Vic with production in decline.

Looking at gas consumption by state for all purposes except exports (figures don't quite add the national total due to rounding to the nearest PJ)

WA = 594 PJ
Qld = 309 PJ
Vic = 287 PJ
NSW / ACT = 139 PJ
SA = 126 PJ
NT = 48 PJ
Tas = 13 PJ

Any replacement of the coal input to power stations in NSW or Vic would thus require that a new gas source be made available. The scale of coal use for power generation between those two states is close to 1000 PJ at present. Noted that you didn't suggest doing that, just pointing out the figures.

If new power stations were built using latest technology then the gas needed to replace coal across NSW and Vic comes down to about 600 PJ per annum with the downside being inflexible operation, that sort of plant isn't well suited to integrating with intermittent renewables.

 

[Smurf1976]

The Hornsdale Power Reserve Battery (Tesla Big Battery) to get a 50% capacity upgrade, the Federal Government ARENA agency to contribute $8m toward the upgrade.

FWIW the new ones have already arrived physically.

 

[rederob]

For those who care to read what the experts recommended, late last year, which in reality is a couple of months ago.

Please realise that there are NO recommendations in this paper.
AEMO is aware of what needs to be done and has spelled out the options, but are rudderless.
The big failing of the ISP is that it is not visionary.

 

[rederob]

... the Federal Government ARENA agency to contribute $8m toward the upgrade.

It's wonderful that you are digging up a lot of articles about renewables, but ARENA was created by Labor in 2011, and Abbott wanted it axed while Morrison now appears to have no intention of refunding it.
So when you say things like:

At least the Government is trying to get ahead of the curve

you are not actually referencing government initiative at all but, instead are talking about an agency which the federal government proposes to discontinue despite its leadership in fostering renewable energy .

 

[rederob]

Any replacement of the coal input to power stations in NSW or Vic would thus require that a new gas source be made available. The scale of coal use for power generation between those two states is close to 1000 PJ at present. Noted that you didn't suggest doing that, just pointing out the figures.

Thanks @Smurf1976.
No, I would have made the suggestion about full-scale conversion but I know that the federal government has failed to lock down a policy requiring that a proportion of Australia's gas reserves be quarantined from export so that it could be used for domestic energy.
The point I was making in this case was about an opportunity to show leadership and sensitivity to our emissions by demanding that the gas resource be integrated into use by coal-fired power stations wherever possible. But with Morrison there is no such thought.