The future of energy generation and storage

[basilio]

The fact that already a number of towers have fallen over is a concern. We still have the threat of major storms coming over tonight/tomorrow

On the longer term I wonder if we have to review the specs on these towers to cover more violent weather events ? Are there simpler ways to strengthen the towers? Can we retro fit .

Is it feasible to put some huge guy ropes on electricity towers to provide more support under extreme conditions ? Probably cheaper than a total rebuild.

 

[IFocus]

Just answer my F#$%cking question. FFS

Your kidding right?

1st you have to end your love affair with Morrison, look he is a drop kick like Abbott all politics no action forget the Liberal / Labor thing Morrison is not going to fly it will be another wasted term of government.

Seriously you have read Smurfs detailed commentary, Robs detailed commentary and you know there is no policy from the Federal government on energy because of the Coalitions opposition against climate change and renewables it all has to be together.

We are moving to renewables that will happen....right?

All this is on the public record.

What should the government do....really?

Its really simple listen to the advice of treasury and government department heads not fu(king political spin doctors. Tell me a news conference Morrison has given that's not full on political BS i.e. how we are all working together.......vomit.

Talk to all stakeholders like the states (remember the east coast is interconnected sort of becomes a federal issue hun)

Stake holders are also private capital looking for investment opportunities but there are bits of the transmission system that will require government funding and organization federal and state .....where is the vision / plan.

This why you have solar unable to connect no fu(king plan.

That's not happening in a planned fashion it's all ahoc.

This all requires policy and planning FFS it requires planning and vision for the next 20 years private capital requires certainty currently there is SFA but amazingly money is still coming in imagine what would happen if there was a serious plan.

This is the biggest transition in Australia's history and you ask what should the government do?

 

[IFocus]

It amazes me how often emergency power generation such as at the hospital fails.
Usually due to poor design, trying to feed too much load, and/or poor maintenance.

Its generally pretty ordinary, run right on its limits, sizing is usually as installed then load added to with out serious considerations seen it in private industry often as well.

Add to that pretty rare for load testing of system then there is the change over system which is normally impossible to test due to configuration (have to turn the power off back on then back off then back on.)

Last place I worked at if the power went off it was a mad sprint to the MCC / genset to make sure it all worked.....I recon it had about a 60% successes rate

 

[sptrawler]

Your kidding right?

1st you have to end your love affair with Morrison, look he is a drop kick like Abbott all politics no action forget the Liberal / Labor thing Morrison is not going to fly it will be another wasted term of government.

Seriously you have read Smurfs detailed commentary, Robs detailed commentary and you know there is no policy from the Federal government on energy because of the Coalitions opposition against climate change and renewables it all has to be together.

We are moving to renewables that will happen....right?

All this is on the public record.

What should the government do....really?

Its really simple listen to the advice of treasury and government department heads not fu(king political spin doctors. Tell me a news conference Morrison has given that's not full on political BS i.e. how we are all working together.......vomit.

Talk to all stakeholders like the states (remember the east coast is interconnected sort of becomes a federal issue hun)

Stake holders are also private capital looking for investment opportunities but there are bits of the transmission system that will require government funding and organization federal and state .....where is the vision / plan.

This why you have solar unable to connect no fu(king plan.

That's not happening in a planned fashion it's all ahoc.

This all requires policy and planning FFS it requires planning and vision for the next 20 years private capital requires certainty currently there is SFA but amazingly money is still coming in imagine what would happen if there was a serious plan.

This is the biggest transition in Australia's history and you ask what should the government do?

Again you say nothing.
Why do you guys have so much trouble answering simple questions?
Because you dont accept the issues.
I will put it really simply, so people wont give you likes for silly meaningless comments.

Right in simple terms, our power grid hss been constructed on a centralised power generators system, they produce the power and send it out to tbe extremities.
Now we have the introduction in the last 15 years of cheaper and cheaper renewables, but they are feeding back into a system that wasnt designed for it.
So the system has to readjust, which has happened and rooftop solar has taken off, this has had a dramatic effect on the local distribution system.
Now what has happened in the last 10 years, the private sector has seen the opportunity of just putting in solar generation and expect the system to be able absorb it.
Well the transmission systems which are State owned cant, so the State owned transmission systems will have to be upgraded.
The AEMO put forward recomendations late last year as to what the felt needed doing, as far as I know that is being done, untill it is done the amount of renewables that the system can cope with is saturated.
So going to what a Government policy can do, well in reality all a Government policy can do to increase the installation of more renewables IMO,
Is guarantee that any further renewables installed will be paid for generation we cant use.
Which in reality has been done in the past, but has been proven that the tax oayer gets raped, as the installed plant sits there and does f@#k all.
But alas it seems that is what the ranters and chanters want.
Another NBN on the way, the tax payer forks out to replace something they own, so that those who should replace it can charge you more to use it.
Is there any wonder Australias going down the toilet.
By the way I will defer to smurf, he actually knows what he is talking about, Rob knows about as much about the electrical system, as I or you know about Mongolian goat herding.
He is just a talking head.
Dont get me wrong, I think it could be done if the Federal Goverment, puts out a policy, just do it.
But then I think you will have a pink batt situation on steriods, you will get a zillion solar farms everywhere, that you will pay for and wonder how the fluck your going to use them.
Then in 30 years you actually get them on the grid and they are all flucked from old age.

 

[IFocus]

SP I think you missed the point move on nothing to see here

 

[sptrawler]

It amazes me how often emergency power generation such as at the hospital fails.
Usually due to poor design, trying to feed too much load, and/or poor maintenance.

Like IFocus said, they are usually sized to initial requirements, then the installation it is feeding grows, but no one looks at the emergency backup.
In power stations they have a seperate control power supply which is DC, this is so that an earth fault in the control system doesnt trip the cct.
The DC system has a battery back up, it is amazing in Country towns with their own Power Stations, that when the town grows and more units are put in the batteries arent increased.
So when the proverbial hits the fan, all of a sudden the control system voltage drops like a bag of poo.
Been there seen that.lol

 

[sptrawler]

SP I think you missed the point move on nothing to see here

I guess so, all I see with the Feds getting involved, is another big mess.
The privates charge us for electricity, if they want to change over, which they do, make them pay for it.
There is a backlog of solar wind ready to go, they know they can beat the established generators on price.
The transmission system needs reconfiguring and interstate interconnectors put in, which is being done.
Snowy2.0 is being built and the extra undersea cable to Tasmania is being done.
Why the hell would the Feds want to walk in a nd say we think this should be done?
Everything they have done up untill now has been a stuff up, they should stay out of it untill it isnt going ahead.
Jeez every time the Feds do anything, the private sector take them to the cleaners, why would this time be different?
Li ke I said explain to me what policy the Feds could put in place, that would make the changes to the grid happen faster, because the grid is the bottle neck.
Once the grid is able to take the renewables and Snowy2.0 and Tasmania can absorb the excess midday generation.
The coal generators will be forced off the grid, they have a limited turn down ratio and take a long time to get back on the system.
So it will be a case of natural attrition, when the storage and power shifting facilty is installed.
There is no need IMO for any intervention, other than funding storage and interstate interconnectors, renewables are cheap they are lining up to put them in.
The media is stirring up a storm in a tea cup.IMO
Let the AEMO say what is required IMO, it is a technical issue, not a political one.

 

[Smurf1976]

On the longer term I wonder if we have to review the specs on these towers to cover more violent weather events ? Are there simpler ways to strengthen the towers? Can we retro fit

I think it needs to be looked at certainly.

First time it happened in SA it could be dismissed as a freak event but now it's happened in Victoria less than three and a half years later.

I suspect it's another case where something was designed for the climate which existed at the time but where that design is not adequate now.

The details of how to fix it I really don't know. It's a structural and civil engineering sort of issue rather than an electrical one as such - from the photos I've seen they appear to have quite literally fallen over and are now laying horizontally on the ground. Assuming nobody finds evidence of explosives or some other form of deliberate damage then I can only assume it's due to some localised extreme wind event.

Prior to the SA incident in 2016 the idea of transmission lines blowing over just wasn't something that was given any thought. Being damaged by fires yes. Being impacted by some sort of wind blown object (especially anything metal eg roofing iron) yes. Plane crashes etc yes. Ice yes but there are workarounds for that one (just make sure there's a lot of current flowing through the line that stops ice forming in practice). Just blowing over wasn't something anyone was really thinking of though.

 

[Smurf1976]

SP I think you missed the point move on nothing to see here

I'm intentionally keeping out of this argument but I'll say this.

The federal government has been nothing short of a nuisance (that's being extremely polite) when it comes to all this stuff for quite some time.

I agree that they ought to have a role but to be blunt they need to cast off an awful lot of baggage and start focusing on the real task at hand and forget about all their ideological nonsense. I'd very much like them to do that, that's an entirely reasonable thing to be doing, but they're so far entrenched in ideology that it's akin to the 50 year old couch potato telling me they're going to run a marathon - I'll believe it only when I see them actually running.

If there's one thing the events of yesterday have shown it's that electricity is a system far more than it's a market.

It works because we've got Origin running Mortlake to supply a very large customer for which AGL holds the contract. It works because we've got TransGrid, ElectraNet and TasNetworks willing assist AusNet to fix the damage. It works because AGL supplies coal to rival Alinta. It works because Origin gives gas to Engie and takes the electricity produced. It works because practically every privately owned generation company has some dealings with Snowy and/or Hydro Tas. And so on. FWIW most of them have got BHP somewhere on one side of the ledger too by the way and in some cases on both sides.

It works because it's a system. There's nothing wrong with the concept of a market, it's a perfectly reasonable idea as such, but the feds really need to take about 50 steps backward from the ideological obsession they've got with that bit and instead see it as what it really is - a relatively minor detail in how an extremely complex system actually works.

I'll be blunt and say that it's just nonsense to be not telling company A what companies B and C are doing when they're all using the same line which isn't big enough for all of them. That's literally where at lot of it has gone wrong - they all have a proposal which individually works but nobody's allowed to tell them that there's two others doing something which pulls the rug from under it all. End result is 3 companies end up each owning an asset that's two thirds useless and that's a dead loss from an overall Australian perspective to be doing that.

It's just a silly ideological battle really. It's not as though you can really hide a power station or a solar farm so this nonsense about keeping "competitors" in the dark and getting them to blow their money is all a bit dumb really. Especially so once you consider that the real, actual competitors for the major loads are overseas anyway - it's Russia, USA, South Africa and so on that we need to worry about not AGL versus EA versus Origin versus any of the government owned entities.

As I said, I'm not against the concept of a competitive market but it needs to be toned down and not allowed to overshadow the technical aspects.

It shouldn't overshadow the environmental issues either - running inefficient high emissions plant when someone else's plant that uses half as much fuel is under-utilised is just silly. Ramping diesels up and down for literally 5 minutes is even worse. Again it comes back to the "market" tail wagging the technical dog - it needs to be reigned in to a more sensible approach.

 

[rederob]

Again another load of crap, you may be good at writing speaches, but you have FA idea of how an electrical distribution system works.

Think what you like, but you simply do not understand that the issue is about how renewables have been discounted by the federal government and as a result we have not built a framework which is supportive.
I also note your later explanation of the grid.
It reinforces what I have said: you are talking about a grid that keeps pandering to old systems of electricity generation and has not been forward looking. Despite this you say there is an "orderly transition" but cannot show it is occurring or that it will occur.
If you thought there was going to be an orderly transition, then you should look at AEMO's Integrated System Plan and ask yourself why there is no clarity about where Australia sees its energy future.

With regard the Finkle report, if you ask VC or Rumpy, you will find Im one of the biggest backers of H2, I suggested to the energy minister of W.A in the 1990,s that the first wind farm built near Cervantes, should have a H2 plant built next to it to capture wasted energy.

That may be so, but the point I raised related to where renewable energy potential was greatest, but there is no infrastructure being contemplated to tap into it.

Just answer my F#$%cking question. FFS

I did.
But you want an answer to a question which relates mostly to the legacy grid infrastructure supporting fossil fuel generated electricity. That's exactly the poor thinking that has held back Australia's renewables future. In a different thread I mentioned how the UK and Germany had led with supportive renewables policies and now have comparatively large percentages of their electricity from renewables. Moreover, Europe's integrated grid structure has been well planned with renewables in mind, and HVDC is going to play a greater role through major interconnectivity projects.
Despite your claims about what you think I know you then say:

Dont get me wrong, I think it could be done if the Federal Goverment, puts out a policy, just do it.

So you seem to agree the federal government has no policy.

I have followed European energy policy for a long time. I have seen how they had to cooperate internationally or bear crazy energy costs through insularity. I have watched the UK respond to Stern to become a world leader in renewable contributions to their national grid.
You seem to think Australia will be some kind of renewables experiment. Sadly, we are a backwater as the lead comes from overseas and we are wondering if we should play catchup.

Finally, you might want to read about how affordable a 100% renewables future could be. Note the map with an HVDC spine as a response to your earlier points which were as well formed as your other opinions.

 

[SirRumpole]

I have seen how they had to cooperate internationally or bear crazy energy costs through insularity. I have watched the UK respond to Stern to become a world leader in renewable contributions to their national grid.

Are you counting nuclear as renewable ?

Its really simple listen to the advice of treasury and government department heads not fu(king political spin doctors. Tell me a news conference Morrison has given that's not full on political BS i.e. how we are all working together.......vomit.

And hope that Treasury and DH's listen to and are capable of understanding the advice of engineers and scientists, because these are the ultimate experts.

 

[rederob]

Are you counting nuclear as renewable ?

Definitely not.
Nuclear is the most expensive source of electrical energy by a very long margin.

 

[IFocus]

And hope that Treasury and DH's listen to and are capable of understanding the advice of engineers and scientists, because these are the ultimate experts.

Agree and they do get it wrong hence governments (Ministers) have to talk to all stakeholders / experts and form a policy.

Katharine Murphy has long followed the energy problems for a long time writes a good peace on the latest announcement.

PM's energy plan isn't really a plan – but it's a step in the right direction

Katharine Murphy

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-a-plan-but-its-a-step-in-the-right-direction

 

[IFocus]

Definitely not.
Nuclear is the most expensive source of electrical energy by a very long margin.

Lead time is also massive and that's before you get to enrichment (which leads to security risks) and who's backyard you are going to build in.

Only works if you are building a bomb.

 

[rederob]

PM's energy plan isn't really a plan – but it's a step in the right direction

QUOTE:
"Instead of having a clear, national policy mechanism to drive the transition to low emissions, a coherent framework to drive new investment in least-cost abatement, you have the equivalent of the mandated, Soviet-style, five-year plan. Except it’s not really a plan. Morrison doesn’t yet have the courage for a plan. It’s a set of propositions that might hold together, or might pull in different directions."
Thanks for the link @IFocus.
@sptrawler says:

The media is stirring up a storm in a tea cup.IMO

But he cannot come up with anything to show any semblance of "order" or a "plan."
This link provides a better perspective on what the grid needs now, and why.

 

[sptrawler]

QUOTE:
"Instead of having a clear, national policy mechanism to drive the transition to low emissions, a coherent framework to drive new investment in least-cost abatement, you have the equivalent of the mandated, Soviet-style, five-year plan. Except it’s not really a plan. Morrison doesn’t yet have the courage for a plan. It’s a set of propositions that might hold together, or might pull in different directions."
Thanks for the link @IFocus.
@sptrawler says:But he cannot come up with anything to show any semblance of "order" or a "plan."
This link provides a better perspective on what the grid needs now, and why.

What I've said is, at the moment there is a backlog of renewables that can't fit on an already conjested grid, so untill the bottle neck is sorted a plan isn't really needed.
Once the grid is able to cope with a mass migration from fossil fuel to renewables a plan will be required, but ATM all that would happen is the Government would end up getting ripped off.
The real issue isn't here yet, it will be in the foreseeable future when mass renewables can be accomodated, then the coal generators wont be competitive.
That is when a plan nationally will be imperative, because someone is going to have to subsidise the base load more and more, untill it is no longer required.

As IFocus said, time to move on.

 

[rederob]

What I've said is, at the moment there is a backlog of renewables that can't fit on an already conjested grid, so untill the bottle neck is sorted a plan isn't really needed.

That's a clear failure of policy.
We knew this was going to be an issue a long time ago.
We know the cost of solar is cheaper than coal, but we curtail solar, so electricity prices are not as cheap as they could be.

The real issue isn't here yet, it will be in the foreseeable future when mass renewables can be accomodated, then the coal generators wont be competitive.

I suggest you read my earlier link. Coal is already behind renewables and the big issues (from an economic perspective) now are:

1. Providing a grid infrastructure to better capture renewables potential (given they are cheaper); and
2. Storage/firming capacity.

 

[basilio]

Excellent explanation of why a plan is needed to re design our energy systems and thge role of Government in laying out the agenda.

It is the link Rederob has highlighted previously
https://www.ey.com/en_au/power-utilities/grid-expectations-how-to-solve-the-energy-impasse

 

[sptrawler]

That's a clear failure of policy.
We knew this was going to be an issue a long time ago.
We know the cost of solar is cheaper than coal, but we curtail solar, so electricity prices are not as cheap as they could be.
I suggest you read my earlier link. Coal is already behind renewables and the big issues (from an economic perspective) now are:

1. Providing a grid infrastructure to better capture renewables potential (given they are cheaper); and
2. Storage/firming capacity.

Which is exactly what all my posts say.

 

[rederob]

Which is exactly what all my posts say.

You have talked about an orderly transition occurring, and you know that is not the case.
I actually agree with a lot of what you say, but the root cause of our problems remains the inability of our federal government to see that renewables were going to be our energy future and, as a consequence, deliberately stymie their ability to supplant the fossil fuel sector. We are so far behind that AEMO is still trying to get a rule change into the NER that encapsulates energy storage systems (ESS) in the NEM to support variable renewable energy (VRE) - ie. bi-directional electricity flows.