The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

I'm sure smurf will give a more accurate description, he has been mentioning the problem for ages.

Basic problems are multiple:

*Generation at a time when demand is naturally not that high. Solar peaks at midday whereas demand in Winter peaks at 6pm with a lower peak around 8am and in Summer it peaks mid-late afternoon (which due to significant solar still being on at that time is now a peak on conventional generation around 6 - 7pm).

*Network issues which could be likened to traffic congestion. The road (power lines) were built for the town of 200 people, they weren't built for someone to put a freight depot at the end of it with trucks going in and out constantly. Same concept, the power lines to Broken Hill (for example) were built because running diesel generation was costing too much, so that is the lines were sized for the town and mining, they weren't intended to be flowing in the reverse direction with a huge amount of generation connected.

Beyond those two concepts there's a lot of regional variation and broadly speaking SA and Tasmania are at the opposite extremes:

*Load in SA is extremely variable, with load during the middle of the day under mild sunny conditions not unknown to fall to around 15% of peak load which occurs during heatwaves. Load is dominated by residential and non-industrial business.

*Load in Tasmania is pretty relentless, the absolute minimum is about 50% of the absolute peak and that minimum is very rarely reached. Load is dominated by large manufacturing operations running 24/365.

*End result of the above is that total load on centralised generation in SA is 16% higher than in Tasmania (despite having 3.4 times the population) but the minimum load in SA, which occurs when solar is at maximum, is about 45% lower than minimum load in Tasmania (but peak load in SA is 80% higher than Tas). So one's incredibly volatile and erratic whilst the other simply plods along non-stop.

*Networks have some similar differences. SA transmission is fairly robust but the distribution network is of considerably lower capacity per household than in Tasmania. SA thus has more issues with maintaining a stable voltage under fluctuating load conditions (whilst also having far more fluctuation in load in the first place).

*Other states are in the middle somewhere. Queensland and Tas are much the same in every aspect apart from Queensland having a lot more solar. For the rest, Vic is closest to the SA situation followed by WA. NSW still has a fair bit of room to move but the limit will be reached in due course (and that could all happen rather quickly). For the NT and remote towns in other states it varies locally since there's no single big system covering those.

In terms of how to resolve it, there's several aspects:

*Load shifting is one. That is, intentionally shift some loads to the middle of the day when the sun's shining eg water heating, dishwashers and so on. Qld and NSW are onto it to some extent via changing existing systems, Tas is ramping up an aggressive marketing effort to persuade everyone even though there's no real urgency, in SA "we'll get there but slowly.....". WA they seem to know there's a problem but aren't doing much about it. Victoria they're, um, well they say if you don't have anything nice to say then don't say anything so I won't say anything then.....

*Storage near the source is an option to address network constraints affecting solar and wind farms. Having a battery means they can get the energy into the grid by spreading it over more hours, charging the battery when the lines are already fully loaded, but beyond a point that ends up meaning it has to be discharged at times when the energy isn't worth much (eg middle of the night) and that sinks the economics. It's a solution with definite limits.

*Storage without such constraints, that is pumped hydro with new transmission lines or batteries close to major loads (cities) or other strong points in the network (eg old power station sites or former mine sites will be network strong points), gets around the overall supply and demand issue but it comes at a price. Thus far there's interest from the private sector (eg AGL and Origin are both involved) in storage (battery or hydro) sufficient for the day to day cycle of peak and off-peak but so far as long term storage, how to offset good versus bad weeks or even months, it's only the two government-owned hydro operators (Snowy Hydro and Hydro Tasmania) that are seriously interested there. The private operators would generally prefer to stick with gas for that purpose and it comes down to project lifecycles, risk, rates of return and so on basically.

 

[rederob]

Taken from a different thread to put it where it belongs:

Emissions are roughly one third electricity, one third other energy use, one third everything else. Roughly.
Most debate focuses on electricity. When you hear someone talking about phasing out coal or using renewables, they're talking about how to generate electricity. There's dramatically less discussion about the other two thirds of emissions, including the one third which comes from non-electricity uses of energy.

This is true.
The problem with your idea, however, is that you have neglected the fact that electricity can be stored and can be converted into other forms of energy.
In the context of renewables, the energy dense storage option of hydrogen (of 120 MJ/kg or 33 kWh/kg) through electrolysis solves most of the below CO2 emissions scenarios.

Flow or cell battery energy options solve most of the rest of the above.
These options are outlined in Finkel's watered-down COAG Energy Council report called "Australia's National Hydrogen Strategy."
Unfortunately we have a government which is inept in terms of energy policy and also hypocritical. PM Morrison might say he believes in a "fair go for those who have a go" but that does not apply to his government (as evidenced by his continued support of embattled rorter Bridget McKenzie).
Morrison is welded to the fossil fuel industry and his lump of coal trick in the federal Parliament shows how much of a waste of space he is.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I just see a few growing pains, but the good thing is its growing.

Buy the gate keeper EOL esp with 5 minute pricing?

 

[rederob]

IT isn't a failure of POLICY, it's an orderly transition, without the public paying for it.

Please show where there is evidence of this?
As you know, we have energy curtailment from the solar farms, and if your claim was true, this would not be occurring.

 

[sptrawler]

Please show where there is evidence of this?
As you know, we have energy curtailment from the solar farms, and if your claim was true, this would not be occurring.

As you well know, the curtailment is happening as the States reconfigure their networks to faciltate further renewable capacity in remote areas.
Also installing the infrastructure isnt done with a magic wand.
Your politically motivated nonsense just gets annoyingly repetitive.

 

[rederob]

As you well know, the curtailment is happening as the States reconfigure their networks to faciltate further renewable capacity in remote areas.
Also installing the infrastructure isnt done with a magic wand.
Your politically motivated nonsense just gets annoyingly repetitive.

So your comment "IT isn't a failure of POLICY, it's an orderly transition" is not true.
It is not as though the people in the electricity industry were caught by surprise, it's that they have refused to properly plan for it.

 

[IFocus]

It certainly is and it is growing in a sensible manner, which is the good thing.
The horse is leading the cart, rather than the normal way, where we are chasing the cart down the road with the horse in tow.
Building the renewables, the H.V network and the storage, then phasing out the coal in an orderly manner is a much better plan IMO.
Than blowing up the coal, then wondering how you are going to supply the electricity, with an unsuitable H.V network and very little storage.
Time will tell, but I think there will be a very orderly ramp up of renewables.

Not looking to orderly in Victoria at the moment.

I am surprised you continue to defend the indefensible.

 

[sptrawler]

Not looking to orderly in Victoria at the moment.

I am surprised you continue to defend the indefensible.

Ok Ive asked Rob this question and he couldnt answer it, so maybe you can.
What can the Federal Government do that will speed up the reconfiguring of the HV transmission system, which is where the bottle neck is.

 

[sptrawler]

Not looking to orderly in Victoria at the moment.

I am surprised you continue to defend the indefensible.

By the way WTF has the poor state of Victorias power Stations got to do with the Federal Government, it is Victorias fault they are in the manure. Doing sod all to make sure their power stations are maintained and reliable, lucky it isnt a Liberal State Government or you be getting up them.

 

[rederob]

By the way WTF has the poor state of Victorias power Stations got to do with the Federal Government, it is Victorias fault they are in the manure. Doing sod all to make sure their power stations are maintained and reliable, lucky it isnt a Liberal State Government or you be getting up them.

Again, please explain where your so-called "orderly transition" is that is supposed to be preventing this.
Also, last time I checked (2 minutes ago to be exact) we had a NATIONAL Energy Market being overseen by a federal Energy Minister who was supposed to be working through the COAG Energy Council to ensure the lights stayed on.
You seem to make a lot of claims about the electricity market without understanding it particularly well.

 

[Smurf1976]

Not looking to orderly in Victoria at the moment.

You've nailed it with that one....

Vic and SA have just had one hell of a shake electrically this afternoon. There's a degree of luck that they're not now in the dark but load is being shed in Vic yes.

SA gained part of western Vic all of a sudden, tripped some wind generation and a steam unit at Torrens Island, gave the system frequency a decent shake and now there's no AC transmission between Vic and SA, the systems have separated. Underlying cause is transmission failure, a physical structural collapse, in Victoria. This is serious......

In Vic well the SW has no transmission to the rest of the state and that includes Mortlake power station and Alcoa so that's all somewhat of a problem (to put it very mildly). So AEMO has intervened and there's some load being shed (again putting it mildly).

Load is on in SA however, some serious excitement but it's on. Plus a bit being fed into Vic via Murraylink at about 100 MW. SA spot price sitting around $300 / MWh.

Vic market price is hard on the price cap at $14,700 / MWh

NSW also extremely stressed and the price is circa $13,000 / MWh. AEMO intervention in the market is imminent (that's the polite way of saying some load gets turned off).

Supply from Qld and Tas is both at the limit of transmission capacity. No problems also keeping the lights on in either state. Qld spot price is sitting at $67.70 and in Tas it's at $44.68.

My point here is essentially a news item of a current emergency situation, which has the potential to do some serious $$$ damage by the way and is causing some outright panic in certain areas, but to the extent there's any politics I'll just refer to the last paragraph above and note that the integrity of the Qld and Tas systems is in spite of, not because of, successive federal governments of both persuasions.

 

[Smurf1976]

To clarify my comment about a collapse - I mean what most people think of when someone says "collapse".

Stuff lying on the ground when it's supposed to be standing up sort of collapse. Serious problem.

 

[SirRumpole]

To clarify my comment about a collapse - I mean what most people think of when someone says "collapse".

Stuff lying on the ground when it's supposed to be standing up sort of collapse. Serious problem.

Amazing how little of this gets into the media.

It seems it only happens when the lights actually go out and people want to know why.

Where are the whistleblowers and why aren't the media on to it I ask.

There is this though, is that what you mean Smurf ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...adelaide-hospital-amid-severe-storms/11918354

 

[sptrawler]

Again, please explain where your so-called "orderly transition" is that is supposed to be preventing this.
Also, last time I checked (2 minutes ago to be exact) we had a NATIONAL Energy Market being overseen by a federal Energy Minister who was supposed to be working through the COAG Energy Council to ensure the lights stayed on.
You seem to make a lot of claims about the electricity market without understanding it particularly well.

When someone amswers my question with an answer, rather than a long winded political speach that pertains to FA to do with the question.
You still havent answered my question of , WHAT WILL A FEDERAL POLICY DO TO HELP THE STATES UPGRADE AND RECONFIGURE THEIR HV TRANSMISSION SYSTEM.
Last thing you mentioned was a brain fart HV DC main down the East Coast, which shows how much of an idea you have of the issue.

 

[rederob]

When someone amswers my question with an answer, rather than a long winded political speach that pertains to FA to do with the question.

I have pointed out that your claims about an orderly transition are not true, and you have no defense.
Again, can you explain where this orderly transition is occurring?

You still havent answered my question of , WHAT WILL A FEDERAL POLICY DO TO HELP THE STATES UPGRADE AND RECONFIGURE THEIR HV TRANSMISSION SYSTEM.

That's not a relevant question to begin with. The issue is that the government has not supported the renewables sector and as a result there is curtailment. If the government supported renewables we would not have energy going to waste and it would instead be working to reduce electricity costs.

Last thing you mentioned was a brain fart HV DC main down the East Coast, which shows how much of an idea you have of the issue.

On the contrary. All you are able to do is think that we should be catering to the fossil fuel sector's transmission needs.
I suggest you look at the maps in Finkel's Hydrogen Report which I linked and you can work out for yourself why an HVDC spine makes sense. Do you actually understand why HVDC makes more sense in a renewables future? Or are you going to go off like a wonky alarm clock again?

 

[Smurf1976]

Amazing how little of this gets into the media.

It seems it only happens when the lights actually go out and people want to know why.

Where are the whistleblowers and why aren't the media on to it I ask.

There is this though, is that what you mean Smurf ?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...adelaide-hospital-amid-severe-storms/11918354

To clarify what has happened (in layman's terms):

There are a number of transmission towers, that is the big steel towers, which have physically collapsed in Victoria. That is the towers and the lines they carry are now physically lying on the ground and no longer standing up. There's several of them like that.

These towers carry the 500kV (500,000 Volt) lines between south-west Victoria and the rest of the state. These lines are particularly significant because of where they lead:

*Mortlake power station

*Alcoa Portland aluminium smelter

*Several wind farms

*Various towns etc in the area

*The AC connection, that is the main one, between Victoria and SA

With those towers on the ground, all of that is physically and electrically isolated from the rest of the state.

Consequences of this were loss of supply to the Portland smelter, complete shutdown of Mortlake Power station and a major "shock" to the system in SA which prior to the incident was sending large volumes into Victoria via these lines. A consequence of that was a number of wind farms tripped offline and so did one generating unit at Torrens Island A power station in Adelaide (later restarted successfully).

So what's happening now is that south-west Victoria, including Alcoa, Mortlake Power station, the wind farms and the various towns, are all electrically part of SA and will be until such time as the towers in Victoria are rebuilt and the lines put back up.

Short term, the next few days at least, the SA grid can handle the additional load. That said, if a heatwave occurs or if any generation were to fail, especially Mortlake, then it would become somewhat more precarious but it looks OK over the next week at least so long as nothing breaks.

A consequence whilst all this was going on was considerable frequency instability in SA. In layman's terms - the speed wobbled around. That's not surprising when you've got the state suddenly disconnected from the rest of the grid, load being tripped, generation being tripped and so on. So the frequency, in layman's terms speed, has been somewhat unstable.

Anyone monitoring frequency and looking for a problem as a trigger to do something, eg to switch on a backup generator, will have seen that (well, their computer will have seen it). That would be the most likely explanation for what happened at the Royal Adelaide Hospital - system saw the unstable grid frequency and decided to fire up the generator. That said, obviously it didn't work as intended if it blacked out the hospital, that's not the intended outcome, but that would be the likely "trigger" event.

Sort-of separate but related has been some load shed in Vic and NSW. In short they ran out of power and AEMO activated pre-arranged agreements which involve certain users reducing consumption. Those users are things like manufacturing, water pumping and so on, in some cases even offices if they've got their own backup generators, but not households.

If anyone doesn't have power at home presently then it's not due to AEMO having turned it off, things aren't quite that bad despite all the chaos. Reason would be that there's a network fault of some sort - it's an issue for your electricity distributor to fix but there's sufficient power at the present time.

In terms of duration, well that's a good question but the work required is to physically fix the towers and associated lines, it's not just a case of resetting something. Around 2 weeks has been suggested to restore the lines in Vic but that's speculation at this stage.

In the meantime, south-west Vic is electrically part of SA, including the major items mentioned above, and the only link between SA and any other state is the relatively low capacity DC link, known as Murraylink, between SA and Vic which will carry 220 MW at the absolute limit (versus 600 - 650 MW through the AC lines which are now kaput).

 

[SirRumpole]

There are a number of transmission towers, that is the big steel towers, which have physically collapsed in Victoria. That is the towers and the lines they carry are now physically lying on the ground and no longer standing up. There's several of them like that.

Amazing.

Failure due to fires ? storms ? , metal fatigue ?

The prospect of those fallen lines starting fires is a bit of a worry.

 

[Smurf1976]

Amazing.

Failure due to fires ? storms ? , metal fatigue ?

I don't know other than to say that the *assumption* is an extreme wind event, a tornado or something like that, since for several to go all at once it must be weather related.

What I do know however is that assistance has been offered from SA, NSW and Tas in addition to local resources in Vic so far as fixing it is concerned but no firm time for restoration has been announced thus far.

 

[Knobby22]

It amazes me how often emergency power generation such as at the hospital fails.
Usually due to poor design, trying to feed too much load, and/or poor maintenance.

 

[sptrawler]

I have pointed out that your claims about an orderly transition are not true, and you have no defense.
Again, can you explain where this orderly transition is occurring?That's not a relevant question to begin with. The issue is that the government has not supported the renewables sector and as a result there is curtailment. If the government supported renewables we would not have energy going to waste and it would instead be working to reduce electricity costs.On the contrary. All you are able to do is think that we should be catering to the fossil fuel sector's transmission needs.
I suggest you look at the maps in Finkel's Hydrogen Report which I linked and you can work out for yourself why an HVDC spine makes sense. Do you actually understand why HVDC makes more sense in a renewables future? Or are you going to go off like a wonky alarm clock again?

Again another load of crap, you may be good at writing speaches, but you have FA idea of how an electrical distribution system works.
With regard the Finkle report, if you ask VC or Rumpy, you will find Im one of the biggest backers of H2.
I suggested to the energy minister of W.A in the 1990,s that the first wind farm built near Cervantes, should have a H2 plant built next to it to capture wasted energy.
So don,t try and push H2 up my nose.
Just answer my F#$%cking question. FFS