Tisme
Apathetic at Best
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The future of energy generation and storage
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Tisme
Apathetic at Best
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Excellent analysis on the performance of the Tesla battery bank. Clearly seems to be filling it's role in instantaneously smoothing disruptions in power supply as well as boosting overall supply when shortfalls become apparent.
Sounds like everyone is more than happy with the result, which, I guess is why Victoria and other states are moving quickly in that direction.
Thanks Smurf, your knowledge is really appreciated. From my observations it really surprises me how often the Tesla battery is charging during times of high demand when SA is importing from Victoria. I would have thought they would wait for lower spot prices and SA to have excess generation via wind to charge but I guess they prioritise keeping the battery at 100% over the price or energy source used to charge the battery.
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Smurf any insights into what happened in Victoria today? Were there new faults or was it more a case of demand outstripping supply? You've been warning of such a day for some time
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Government is claiming there was no supply shortage, and that the blackouts were due to blown fuses and equipment failure.
Smurf, do you believe this to be accurate?
Smurf, do you believe this to be accurate?
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In short there wasn't a shortage of electricity in Vic overall.
What happened was that the distribution networks in some areas couldn't cope with the load and thus failed. At the time of maximum load in Vic yesterday there was about 1134 MW of spare capacity which is just enough to consider the system as being in a secure state but with no real extra as such.
With that level of generation available the system could have coped, just, with the loss of the two largest generators. That's the standard so no issues as such there.
It was a near miss in some other ways though which are best explained with some figures:
*1134 MW of spare capacity available to Vic.
*There was 353 MW of intermittent, mostly wind, generation in Vic at the time. That this was available was pure luck.
*SA was able to supply a maximum of 596 MW to Vic and was actually supplying 571 MW at the time of peak demand. That the power was available from SA was only possible because there was a huge amount of wind at the time in that state generating 1472 MW.
*It was a Sunday with a lot of businesses, schools etc being shut and that keeps demand lower than if the same weather occurred on a weekday.
*Generation worked pretty well. In terms of issues actually affecting supply to Victoria only about 275 MW was unavailable. That's roughly 3% so not too bad. There was some more capacity unavailable within the Snowy system but that was able to be fully offset by supply from NSW using the same transmission lines so had no impact on supply capacity to Vic in practice.
Now, if it had been a weekday. Or if it had not been so windy in SA. Or if any large generating unit in Vic had failed. Or if demand had been high in NSW. Any of those would have greatly tightened the situation and resulted in an outcome ranging from "lack of reserves" if it was higher demand in NSW to "oh s***" if the wind wasn't blowing.
Needless to say the situation would also have been tighter in terms of overall supply if the distribution network faults hand't occurred and blacked out a few suburbs. That alone wouldn't have tipped the overall supply over the edge but it would certainly have reduced the available margin which was just enough as it was.
So it was another bullet dodged by virtue of timing. The concern I and quite a few others have seems to be playing out. We'll keep being lucky, keep dodging bullets because heatwaves arrive on a weekend etc, and then one of these days we'll end up with a truly massive failure when the ducks line up and the heatwave arrives on a working weekday with a generator or two offline.
Relating to that is the age and condition of generating plant itself. There's some that's in good shape in Vic and SA but quite a bit that's getting rather old.
Torrens Island A station (SA) was already running before man landed on the moon.
Dry Creek (SA) and Yallourn W Stage 1 (Vic) both pre-date the introduction of colour TV to Australia. I don't know if the opening was on the evening news but it would have been shown in B&W if it was.
And so on. A lot of it's getting pretty old and tired these days which does increase the chances of failure.
As for the distribution networks, well clearly they haven't been upgraded with sufficient capacity to cope with increasing load in those areas. Fixing that is relatively straightforward, it's just a case of designing and building, so long as someone's willing to spend the $. That last but, $, being the likely obstacle.
What happened was that the distribution networks in some areas couldn't cope with the load and thus failed. At the time of maximum load in Vic yesterday there was about 1134 MW of spare capacity which is just enough to consider the system as being in a secure state but with no real extra as such.
With that level of generation available the system could have coped, just, with the loss of the two largest generators. That's the standard so no issues as such there.
It was a near miss in some other ways though which are best explained with some figures:
*1134 MW of spare capacity available to Vic.
*There was 353 MW of intermittent, mostly wind, generation in Vic at the time. That this was available was pure luck.
*SA was able to supply a maximum of 596 MW to Vic and was actually supplying 571 MW at the time of peak demand. That the power was available from SA was only possible because there was a huge amount of wind at the time in that state generating 1472 MW.
*It was a Sunday with a lot of businesses, schools etc being shut and that keeps demand lower than if the same weather occurred on a weekday.
*Generation worked pretty well. In terms of issues actually affecting supply to Victoria only about 275 MW was unavailable. That's roughly 3% so not too bad. There was some more capacity unavailable within the Snowy system but that was able to be fully offset by supply from NSW using the same transmission lines so had no impact on supply capacity to Vic in practice.
Now, if it had been a weekday. Or if it had not been so windy in SA. Or if any large generating unit in Vic had failed. Or if demand had been high in NSW. Any of those would have greatly tightened the situation and resulted in an outcome ranging from "lack of reserves" if it was higher demand in NSW to "oh s***" if the wind wasn't blowing.
Needless to say the situation would also have been tighter in terms of overall supply if the distribution network faults hand't occurred and blacked out a few suburbs. That alone wouldn't have tipped the overall supply over the edge but it would certainly have reduced the available margin which was just enough as it was.
So it was another bullet dodged by virtue of timing. The concern I and quite a few others have seems to be playing out. We'll keep being lucky, keep dodging bullets because heatwaves arrive on a weekend etc, and then one of these days we'll end up with a truly massive failure when the ducks line up and the heatwave arrives on a working weekday with a generator or two offline.
Relating to that is the age and condition of generating plant itself. There's some that's in good shape in Vic and SA but quite a bit that's getting rather old.
Torrens Island A station (SA) was already running before man landed on the moon.
Dry Creek (SA) and Yallourn W Stage 1 (Vic) both pre-date the introduction of colour TV to Australia. I don't know if the opening was on the evening news but it would have been shown in B&W if it was.
And so on. A lot of it's getting pretty old and tired these days which does increase the chances of failure.
As for the distribution networks, well clearly they haven't been upgraded with sufficient capacity to cope with increasing load in those areas. Fixing that is relatively straightforward, it's just a case of designing and building, so long as someone's willing to spend the $. That last but, $, being the likely obstacle.
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Thanks for the summary, Smurf. Very interesting.
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Adding to my last comment.....
Maximum temperature in Melbourne today was 33.5 but today was a working weekday. End result is that peak power demand was only about 400 MW lower than yesterday.
If yesterday's heat had been just one day later then the overall situation would have been "interesting" to say the least. That it's blowing strongly in Vic and SA might have saved the situation but it would have been close even with that.
So it's down to the weather quite literally.
Maximum temperature in Melbourne today was 33.5 but today was a working weekday. End result is that peak power demand was only about 400 MW lower than yesterday.
If yesterday's heat had been just one day later then the overall situation would have been "interesting" to say the least. That it's blowing strongly in Vic and SA might have saved the situation but it would have been close even with that.
So it's down to the weather quite literally.
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It looks as though the Energy Sector, is starting to get the real attention of the politicians, the penny is finally dropping and the severity of the issues might have finally gotten through.
The problem isn't going to be resolved overnight, but the slide into darkness, might be halted.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...strict-foreign-ownership-20180201-p4yz6k.html
The problem isn't going to be resolved overnight, but the slide into darkness, might be halted.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...strict-foreign-ownership-20180201-p4yz6k.html
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A somewhat tight supply situation in Vic and SA today, tomorrow and Friday.
The lights will stay on as long as no more than 1 supply source fails, NSW and Tas can keep pumping out the juice and the weather turns out as forecast.
So another bullet fired and will probably be dodged through luck. Someday that's not going to work though.....
The lights will stay on as long as no more than 1 supply source fails, NSW and Tas can keep pumping out the juice and the weather turns out as forecast.
So another bullet fired and will probably be dodged through luck. Someday that's not going to work though.....
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Maybe a blackout are the best way to get the problem fixed. The politicians will be covered in mud and they won't be able to back out so they will have to do something (whether it's the best thing or not is another matter).
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SA are working their way out of the mess slowly but surely. It’s Vic that’s asleep at the wheel.
A private developer today announced plans for a 300 MW / 1350 MWh pumped hydro scheme at the fringe of the Adelaide suburban area. They also are planning a 21 MW / 26 MWh battery located elsewhere.
All up that plus what others have already built or are building will bring the total storage capacity to 451 MW in SA which is pretty significant.
A private developer today announced plans for a 300 MW / 1350 MWh pumped hydro scheme at the fringe of the Adelaide suburban area. They also are planning a 21 MW / 26 MWh battery located elsewhere.
All up that plus what others have already built or are building will bring the total storage capacity to 451 MW in SA which is pretty significant.
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There are excellent opportunities for small investors to be part of community renewable energy projects. Useful returns and the opportunity to be active supporters of large scale professionally run projects. The whys and hows are also interesting.
Pioneering an Australian First
It’s the way of the future: the opportunity to invest directly into local community infrastructure assets. CWP is proud to be pioneering Australia’s first community co-investment into a large scale wind farm. Community co-investment is where members of the community are invited to invest in a renewable energy project that’s developed, financed and managed by a third party
http://www.sapphirewindfarm.com.au/community-investment/
http://www.sapphirewindfarm.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Sapphire-Wind-Farm-CIT-Report-2017.pdf
Pioneering an Australian First
It’s the way of the future: the opportunity to invest directly into local community infrastructure assets. CWP is proud to be pioneering Australia’s first community co-investment into a large scale wind farm. Community co-investment is where members of the community are invited to invest in a renewable energy project that’s developed, financed and managed by a third party
http://www.sapphirewindfarm.com.au/community-investment/
http://www.sapphirewindfarm.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Sapphire-Wind-Farm-CIT-Report-2017.pdf
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There are other organisations that have simple processes to finance smaller scale solar energy projects through smaller investors.
Returns are around 7% for a 7-10 year project.
http://www.clearskysolar.com.au/howitworks.php
Returns are around 7% for a 7-10 year project.
http://www.clearskysolar.com.au/howitworks.php
Add to that Bas;
This lifted from Jack Rickards EV forum Dec 21...
http://evtv.me
On October 3rd, 2017 , the Saudi energy ministry said Abu Dhabi’s Masdar and Electricite de France SA bid to supply power from a 300-megawatt photovoltaic plant for as little as 6.69736 halalas a kilowatt hour, or 1.79 cents. If awarded, that would beat the earlier record for a solar project in Abu Dhabi for 2.42 cents a kilowatt-hour. Solar is now EGGREGIOUSLY less expensive than coal to produce electricity. And it is destined to approach the cost of sand – although you don’t burn it up – you can use it for 30 years. The plant is slotted to be online by June 2019, that’s how fast this is moving and it is part of a plan to deploy 9500 MW of solar in Saudi alone by 2030. They see the writing on the wall for oil, but their vast deserts have no shortage of sunshine.
..................................
Oh and Trawler Luv'd your retort back a page or so. I immediately thought of that soccer player Beckham's responce when the media confirmed his move from Manchester to, I think a Spanish club ... " I'll have to learn a langage"
Trawler, You'll like Jack , his politics are just to right of Gengus Khan(he was a Mogol Emperor of some renoun, Khan, that is)....
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It sounds as though their luck ran out.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/thousands-of-houses-in-victoria-without-power-20180207-p4yzmy.html
http://www.theage.com.au/business/t...icity-price-on-wednesday-20180206-p4yzkh.html
It will be interesting to see how Victoria responds to the impending crisis.
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S.A certainly are embracing their issues and getting on with forward thinking remedial action, good on them.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/s-a-to-host-australias-first-green-hydrogen-power-plant-89447/
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Well it didn't take long for the 'panic' button to be pressed.IMO
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...-shake-up-its-power-grid-20180216-p4z0m1.html
Stored hydrogen, is a huge threat to battery storage, I think both will be used but one will end up winning out, much like cassette's and eight tracks.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...-shake-up-its-power-grid-20180216-p4z0m1.html
Stored hydrogen, is a huge threat to battery storage, I think both will be used but one will end up winning out, much like cassette's and eight tracks.
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EnergyAustralia chief executive Cath Tanna told Fairfax Media large-scale batteries would play a major role in its future.
“We need to learn how to integrate batteries at scale; this is another piece of the puzzle, learning how to integrate this into the new energy system - learning by doing,” Ms Tanna said.
"Learning by doing" sounds like "trial and error", or that they don't know exactly what they are doing.
