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The future of energy generation and storage
- Thread starter Value Collector
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Right about now reality might be starting to sink in that geology most certainly does not yield to politics or neo-liberal economics. Never did and never will.
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/71789-vic-gas-reserves-'not-commercially-viable'.html
Finite resources are, well, finite by their very nature and in the case of gas we're pretty much stuffed 20 - 30 years from now with the rate it's being extracted and sold overseas.
We might have alternative means of heating water and cooking dinner but we're a very long way from the point where industrial furnaces and petrochemical feedstock are being run / produced from the sun and wind. Technically it's possible but it sure ain't cheap at least at present.
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/71789-vic-gas-reserves-'not-commercially-viable'.html
Finite resources are, well, finite by their very nature and in the case of gas we're pretty much stuffed 20 - 30 years from now with the rate it's being extracted and sold overseas.
We might have alternative means of heating water and cooking dinner but we're a very long way from the point where industrial furnaces and petrochemical feedstock are being run / produced from the sun and wind. Technically it's possible but it sure ain't cheap at least at present.
On reading the report it explains the current estimate of offshore Victorian reserves at more than 10,000 petajoules. Current annual Victorian use 260 odd petajoules...
It's the onshore reserves that are uneconomic to extract, or of course you could take Fruadenberg and Turnbulls advice which flys in the face of the report.
With the time scales mentioned, extracting a more resonable royalty from the export of Australias Natural Gas and funding education at world class levels would be a good step toward averting the country 'being stuffed in twenty to thirty years'...
Does anyone here see the cognative dissonance issues with Trumps proclomation on wanting more immagrants from Norway and the public policy programmes that have made the country what it is that are an anathama to his world view... Sovreign Wealth fund just for a start.. (please excuse spelling)
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Plus about that much again for NSW, ACT, SA and Tas.
NSW, ACT, SA are increasingly sourcing gas from Vic since (1) SA's reserves are heavily depleted and production peaked long ago and (2) consumption has shot up recently in SA in particular following the closure of various coal-fired power stations in several states and the in practice transfer of that load onto gas-fired generation in Adelaide.
Tas is for practical purposes just an extension of the Vic gas system anyway and a relatively trivial one (in volume terms) at that.
So the rate of gas extraction in Vic is significantly higher than that needed to meet Vic demand only, the state being an exporter of gas to the other states. That then enables less flow from Qld into SA with that gas going to the LNG plants instead.
Note that I'm not saying Vic is running out of gas next week but it's not an unlimited resource by any means.
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A moderate risk today (Thursday), there's more risk than normal and less ability to withstand failures, but as long as nothing major breaks the lights will stay on.
SA and Vic both have forecast demand which exceeds supply within the state. Not a problem so long as NSW and Tas make up the shortfall. Should be no problem doing so as long as nothing goes wrong but there's definitely more risk than on an average day.
For Friday at this stage there's a significant gap between demand and available supply in Vic but not in any other state (although SA is pretty close). Again not a problem, NSW and Tas (and to a minor extent SA - where the power actually comes from depends on who offers what price subject to the technical constraints of transmission) can fill the gap, just so long as nothing goes wrong.
For Monday next week it looks like being a similar situation in NSW. Demand is forecast to exceed supply available within the state but shouldn't be a problem in practice since Qld and Vic (which in this context includes potential supply from SA and Tas) will fill the gap.
In layman's terms it's a bit like saying there's a high fire danger but thus far no actual fire. A warning that, if things did go wrong, the situation will change from good to bad real quick since there's not a lot of room to move but so far it's still good.
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Extremely tight situation in Vic and SA at the moment following the failure of a generating unit (Loy Yang B unit 1) today.
All available generation of all types in Vic is now running at maximum capacity.
Supply from Tas and NSW into Vic is now running at maximum capacity.
The SA battery is feeding 30 MW into the grid.
Total demand between the two states is about 12,500 MW including distributed generation.
Unused capacity totals about 600 MW, all of that in SA, with about half being at Torrens Island power station and the rest split between the SA government's "temporary" generators and the unused capacity of the battery.
So it might all scrape through today but it'll be another bullet dodged if there isn't a problem. One of these days that plan's not going to work......
All available generation of all types in Vic is now running at maximum capacity.
Supply from Tas and NSW into Vic is now running at maximum capacity.
The SA battery is feeding 30 MW into the grid.
Total demand between the two states is about 12,500 MW including distributed generation.
Unused capacity totals about 600 MW, all of that in SA, with about half being at Torrens Island power station and the rest split between the SA government's "temporary" generators and the unused capacity of the battery.
So it might all scrape through today but it'll be another bullet dodged if there isn't a problem. One of these days that plan's not going to work......
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Isn't it great, when the public sit there in blissful ignorance, thinking all is fine. lol
It really is amazing how many times, the system is on the brink, and then the sea breeze comes in.
It really is amazing how many times, the system is on the brink, and then the sea breeze comes in.
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Has the Loy Yang Unit 1 been fixed? Are we still on a knife edge re power supplies coming into a 40 degree plus day ?
I wonder what the Plan B/C/D is if blackouts become inevitable? 2 hour rolling stoppages perhaps ? Cuts to large industrial plants ? Attempting to protect high rise buildings , hospitals, shopping centres ?
I wonder what the Plan B/C/D is if blackouts become inevitable? 2 hour rolling stoppages perhaps ? Cuts to large industrial plants ? Attempting to protect high rise buildings , hospitals, shopping centres ?
Tisme
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I'm guessing the big battery fixed SA's problem so no need for Snowy MKII?
Malcolm's halo legacies now a staggering....... 1 = SSM
Malcolm's halo legacies now a staggering....... 1 = SSM
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More drivel.
Tisme
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Good to see you are condensing your posts into a self deprecating statement.
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No just succiently commenting on the distractions you serve up.
Give it up Tisme. This thread is about energy generation and storage. What was the point of a misleading comment on SA battery storage and then segueing into a Malcom bash on SSM ?
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In short it's very much on a knife edge.
Loy Yang is back in full operation but with demand so high that's still not really enough. The "official" advice from AEMO for both Vic and SA is, in layman's terms, that it will only take one failure to tip the system over the edge since there's pretty much nothing to spare. So an incident like the trip of a generator at Loy Yang B which occurred yesterday would, if it happened today, be a rather big problem.
To put some factual data on the table in the context of Vic & SA today:
Forecast maximum load = about 12,250 MW not including load supplied from unscheduled generation (rooftop solar, some of the early and generally small wind farms, etc).
Available non-intermittent generation within the two states = 11,466 MW including the SA battery (100 MW) and the SA government's "temporary" generators.
Supply from Tas = 478 MW limited by transmission.
Supply from NSW = Capacity varies hugely due to transmission constraints, since some generation in Vic uses the same transmission lines with only the spare capacity able to bring supply from NSW, but realistically 200 MW is a "safe" assumption during the peak (but at other times it can go over 1000 MW - just not when generation using the same lines is running heavily and it's hot).
So all up that's about 100 MW less supply from non-intermittent sources than the forecast load. As such, ability to meet demand really comes down to quite literally the wind. So long as it's blowing all will be well but there really is no "backup" available today if wind speeds drop too low.
Generating plant unavailable as of earlier today:
Torrens Island A unit 2: 120 MW, fuel is gas, located in SA
Jeeralang A units 3 & 4: 54 MW each so 108 MW total, gas, Vic.
Valley Power units 4 & 5: 45 MW each so 90 MW total, gas, Vic.
Eildon unit 1: 55 MW, hydro, Vic.
Hallett power station: Not sure which units but 50MW, gas, SA.
Port Lincoln: One 23 MW unit unavailable, oil-fired gas turbine, SA.
Overall that's 446 MW out of service. That's only 4% of installed capacity unavailable in Vic and SA so it's not a bad level of performance indeed it's considerably better than anyone would sensibly depend on.
So as an overall summary - it's extremely tight and there's no room for anything to go wrong. Demand higher than forecast, a generator failing or the wind speed dropping to low levels would individually be difficult to cope with today.
First option is things like running backup diesel generators in buildings etc and voluntary load reduction by some industries. The paperwork is already in place for that to occur, it's just a matter of AEMO "pulling the trigger" to make it happen. It's not without costs though - running diesel generation in the Melbourne CBD isn't exactly going to help the city's air quality and lost production from industry is an economic cost.
If that's not enough then what remains is blackouts. The list of who gets cut first is decided long in advance (it permanently exists) by state governments but in short maintaining supply to hospitals and critical infrastructure plus anything likely to suffer damage (some industries) or harm the environment (eg sewage treatement) is the first priority. Next comes the capital city CBD and then other significant city CBD's. Exact details vary between states.
So if you're not some sort of known critical infrastructure where lack of power causes a serious risk to human life, the environment or property and you're not in the CBD of either the capital or at least a significant other city then you're on the list.
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I'll keep out of any personal debates and simply say:
The battery supplied about 1% of SA's actual demand during the peak. This was using 30% of the the battery's capacity as a source of bulk supply into the grid as intended with the other 70% reserved for frequency control etc and emergency use.
It provided part of the immediate response when Loy Yang B unit 1 tripped in Victoria. This was brief and made use of the battery's capabilities and that of conventional generating plant also.
The overall circumstance is that of a lack of installed firm (non-intermittent) generating capacity. Batteries are one way to fix that. Pumped hydro is another. So are coal, nuclear, oil, gas, biomass, geothermal or anything else that can generate power regardless of the short term weather. They all work if assessed in a strict engineering sense.
Beyond that technical aspect it's an economic and political debate as to what's the best means plus, hopefully, proper consideration of non-engineering disciplines such as biology, climate science and so on.
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Currently about 1450 MW spare between Vic and SA (including the SA govt generators)
Demand is expected to rise a further 1000 MW during the afternoon.
630MW is presently being supplied by market scheduled wind generation.
So as long as it doesn't stop blowing and nothing breaks then all should be fine. It's a rather precarious way to be running critical infrastructure though.
Demand is expected to rise a further 1000 MW during the afternoon.
630MW is presently being supplied by market scheduled wind generation.
So as long as it doesn't stop blowing and nothing breaks then all should be fine. It's a rather precarious way to be running critical infrastructure though.
Has another trip just occurred Smurf, spot price in Vic and SA have just jumped to 14k?
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In the running for Understatement of the Year award..
Will someone take Murphy away and put him a cool pub with a cold beer.
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A few things happened.....
At 15:00 (Vic time) AEMO intervened in the market via pre-arranged contracts with entities not normally involved in the power industry to reduce load from the grid. How they achieve that is up to them, some will simply shut down and others might have backup generators that they start up but the effect is less power drawn from the grid by those users.
That's a form of load shedding on the grid due to inability to meet demand, albeit a voluntary one on the part of those affected but it's load shedding nonetheless. Note that "voluntary" means "were paid to do it" in this context.
Where it gets complex is the politics. Technically someone will likely say there was no load shedding and they're right that nobody was forced off today. But if there weren't volunteers to cut load then the same volume of load would have been forced off anyway. So it's a bit like someone resigning in order to avoid being sacked or something like that. Same outcome in practice but the details of how they got there are vastly different in a political or legal sense.
So yes, there was a shortfall of supply in the context of being able to carry on "business as usual" today. That nobody was involuntarily cut-off was only be cause AEMO found some volunteers first. This continued for about 6 hours in total.
At 15:30 (Vic time) AEMO decided to intervene due to the physical flow of electricity between Vic and SA being the opposite of what financial considerations say it ought to be. That is, flow from a high priced region to a lower priced region was occurring for engineering and practical reasons so AEMO decided to put a stop to that. It worked, achieved what they wanted, and sent the price through the roof in doing so. Half an hour after that stated they decided to call and end to it.
Let's just say I'm not a fan of that approach. Normally you have the dog standing still and the tail wagging. AEMO decided to grab hold of the tail and see if the dog started wagging which it sort of did. Surely there's a better way or, if the financial objectives really must be met, at least don't do it in a way that physically ramps generation up in one place and down in another when the system's under massive stress already. That's just asking for trouble in my view.
Later in the day concerns about severe weather threatening the system in SA (don't forget that blackout.....) lead to constraints being imposed on flow Vic - SA which again sent the price in SA to the moon.
On the other side of the equation, some things went right with one generating unit at Eildon (Vic, hydro) and Valley Power (Vic, gas) returned to service during the day and adding a bit more supply.
Then there's the financial side. Quite a bit of money changed hands today with some losers and some winners. Commercial strategy varies between the generating companies. Eg some pursued volume and just took whatever price was on offer all day whilst others did their best to spike the price and in due course managed to do so.
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Fascinating Smurf. Learn something new every day from your analysis of energy production.
One can see how the really big money in power generation is made from crisis situations and shortages. It opens the question of moral hazard when companies that are producing our power (or their associates) have the capacity to vastly increase their profits if perchance a couple of power stations go offline for a few hours
Thx.
One can see how the really big money in power generation is made from crisis situations and shortages. It opens the question of moral hazard when companies that are producing our power (or their associates) have the capacity to vastly increase their profits if perchance a couple of power stations go offline for a few hours
Thx.
