The future of energy generation and storage

[basilio]

Good story on the exponential growth in solar energy led by China, India and Third World countries.

Analysis: How developing nations are driving record growth in solar power

Emerging markets now account for the majority of growth in solar power, according to new data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF).

Led by China and India, these developing economies are behind dramatic recent growth in solar capacity, which expanded by 33% in 2016.

China alone installed 27 gigawatts (GW), around 40% of the world’s new solar last year. Brazil, Chile, Jordan, Mexico and Pakistan all at least doubled their solar capacity in 2016.

In total, solar accounted for 19% of all new generating capacity in the emerging markets tracked by BNEF.

However, solar still only accounts for 5% of capacity and 1.3% of electricity generation globally. But its exponential growth in recent years has been driven by national policies and a combination of photovoltaic module prices falling more than threefold.

Exponential growth
Over the past decade, solar capacity has increased exponentially, driven by falling module prices and national commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or expand access to electricity.

While Europe, the US and Japan led the way in early solar installations, over the past few years most growth has been driven by developing countries, with China in particular starting to dominate the solar sector.

The figure below shows total global solar capacity installed each year from 2003 through to 2016 by region.

<br />

Cumulative solar photovoltaic capacity by region and year from 2003 through 2016. Based on data from BNEF/Climatescope and the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts.
Europe drove much of the early solar capacity growth – and cost reductions. In 2016, however, Asia became the dominant region. North America has also ramped up its solar capacity considerably. While still relatively small, solar capacity in Africa and South and Central America also experienced rapid year-over-year growth from 2013 onwards.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-developing-nations-driving-record-growth-solar-power

 

[$20shoes]

I'm a little skeptical when I read articles that just mention potential GW. I have the potential to earn a million bucks a year but I never get remotely close Same as renewables really. Their capacity to produce electricity is poor.

China's wind capacity factor without curtailment is somewhere near 25% (they'll always have a cutailment though. Solar is at 15%. Thats a lot of investment for a pretty poor return.

 

[SirRumpole]

Another opinion on the failure of governments to secure energy security and affordable pricing.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-...ctricity-bills-air-conditioning-costs/9298346

 

[SirRumpole]

Interesting that Jim Molan has bought up the question of a lack of fuel stockpiles which Smurf raised some time ago.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-04/jim-molan-issues-stark-warning-over-adf-capabilities/9303810

 

[Smurf1976]

Interesting that Jim Molan has bought up the question of a lack of fuel stockpiles which Smurf raised some time ago.

It's by far our biggest economic and military vulnerability in my view. An extremely high level of dependence on fuel from places like the Middle East (a pretty unstable region) and we're the ONLY developed country without a stockpile either government owned or privately owned under a government mandate.

Even most relatively poor countries are taking it more seriously than we are. They might not have the recommended 90 days' worth of imports stockpiled but they've gone as far as they can reasonably afford and have 45 days or 60 days etc which is at least better than nothing. Every other OECD country either has the 90 days' stockpile or does it in conjunction with neighbouring "friendly" countries (eg EU member countries).

I find it truly ridiculous that we've got problems with electricity and gas despite having abundant means of supply for both in our own backyard. Oil's the only one that's actually difficult in an Australian context but we're not even paying attention there since we're so pre-occupied trying to keep the lights on which ought to be incredibly straightforward.

Go back 30 years and we were global leaders when it came to electricity, third cheapest in the OECD and the most efficient thermal generation anywhere, and we were also about 90% self-sufficient with petroleum fuels meanwhile the Victorian state government was running the most effective gas distribution network on the planet in terms of market penetration and doing so incredibly cheaply. Oh how far we've gone backwards.....

 

[basilio]

The 100 megawatt Tesla battery in South Australia is proving exceptionally effective at intercepting power outages. This analysis is well worth reading.
'All happening very quickly': Tesla battery sends a jolt through energy markets

.....
'Outstanding'
While the hype rings a bit hollow in that instance, there's no doubt the battery has been making a difference, responding to four coal generator trips in December alone.

Franck Woitiez, managing director at Neoen – the French operator of the battery – told Fairfax Media its performance had been "outstanding". (Tesla, as is its wont, declined to comment.)

"We are very proud of the battery performance throughout December and the start of January," Mr Woitiez said, adding the company had received "quite a few inquiries" about its operations.

Critics have quibbled at the battery's size, highlighting that alone it could only supply perhaps 30,000 homes for an hour or so, at a cost guessed at $US50 million ($64 million).

But such figures ignore the many benefits – including supporting the security of the grid – that are only beginning to be understood.

"The battery has been dispatched on multiple occasions for both energy and FCAS," a spokesman for the the Australian Energy Market Operator tells Fairfax.

For December, "the battery was dispatched for energy on over 380 separate five-minute dispatch intervals, and enabled on over 4600 separate dispatch intervals in one or more FCAS markets", he said.

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/env...t-through-energy-markets-20180103-h0cxr7.html

 

[Smurf1976]

There's a lot of people saying the battery can only supply 30,000 homes and so on.

At peak demand that's about right but I look at it a very different way.

The battery can supply 100 MW into the grid. That's about 3% of the whole of SA's maximum load and compares to the largest generator in the grid at 239 MW so it's not insignificant.

Angaston, Lonsdale, Port Lincoln, Ladbroke Grove, Mintaro and Snuggery power stations (all in SA) are each individually smaller than the battery in terms of peak output. On an individual generator basis Dry Creek's 3 machines and 4 out of the 5 units at Quarantine power station are also smaller.

Back to houses, well if we take a typical household in SA then the battery could supply 175,000 of them for 77 minutes which again is not insignificant given that's enough time to start from cold any open cycle gas turbine or diesel generator and it's roughly a quarter of all houses in SA that could typically be supplied for that time.

I don't see batteries like this one as a total solution by any means, first because it stores electricity but does not produce it as such and second because it's a relatively expensive means of storage, but it has a role to play. It's not insignificant in scale by any means and it could, of course, be easily duplicated and given the nature of batteries subsequent installations could be located practically anywhere. Could even go in the Adelaide CBD if not for the cost of land likely being too high for that to be sensible but there's none of the siting issues that apply to any form of power station as such.

 

[Logique]

Cheers Smurf. A $550 Mill energy plan for South Australians, of which $50 Mill to subsidize the Tesla batteries, which would supply 30,000 home for one hour. One hour. If they happen to be charged up at the time.

Pity the poor South Australian taxpayer. Actually all Australian taxpayers, as the GST is redistributed to these wastrels.

"I find it truly ridiculous that we've got problems with electricity and gas despite having abundant means of supply for both in our own backyard... (Smurf)". Ain't that the truth.

 

[Tink]

I was told a few suburbs in Melbourne had their power turned off for two hours on Saturday afternoon.

 

[Tisme]

There's a lot of people saying the battery can only supply 30,000 homes and so on.

At peak demand that's about right but I look at it a very different way.

The battery can supply 100 MW into the grid. That's about 3% of the whole of SA's maximum load and compares to the largest generator in the grid at 239 MW so it's not insignificant.

Angaston, Lonsdale, Port Lincoln, Ladbroke Grove, Mintaro and Snuggery power stations (all in SA) are each individually smaller than the battery in terms of peak output. On an individual generator basis Dry Creek's 3 machines and 4 out of the 5 units at Quarantine power station are also smaller.

Back to houses, well if we take a typical household in SA then the battery could supply 175,000 of them for 77 minutes which again is not insignificant given that's enough time to start from cold any open cycle gas turbine or diesel generator and it's roughly a quarter of all houses in SA that could typically be supplied for that time.

I don't see batteries like this one as a total solution by any means, first because it stores electricity but does not produce it as such and second because it's a relatively expensive means of storage, but it has a role to play. It's not insignificant in scale by any means and it could, of course, be easily duplicated and given the nature of batteries subsequent installations could be located practically anywhere. Could even go in the Adelaide CBD if not for the cost of land likely being too high for that to be sensible but there's none of the siting issues that apply to any form of power station as such.

Highly successful companies like Tesla would do the maths before their boss "gambled" the profits. They knew what they were doing, even without Malcolm Turnbull telling them how to.

 

[basilio]

Cheers Smurf. A $550 Mill energy plan for South Australians, of which $50 Mill to subsidize the Tesla batteries, which would supply 30,000 home for one hour. One hour. If they happen to be charged up at the time.

Pity the poor South Australian taxpayer. Actually all Australian taxpayers, as the GST is redistributed to these wastrels.

"I find it truly ridiculous that we've got problems with electricity and gas despite having abundant means of supply for both in our own backyard... (Smurf)". Ain't that the truth.

I believe you have misunderstood the role of the 100 mw battery bank. It is there to stop sudden collapses of the power system when larger generaters fail and load smooth. If you read the article in full that becomes very clear. What was particularly important was it's capacity to come on line almost instantly.

It also acts as a storage for wind/solar power generators to spread their capacity to produce power.

 

[Smurf1976]

I believe you have misunderstood the role of the 100 mw battery bank. It is there to stop sudden collapses of the power system when larger generaters fail and load smooth. If you read the article in full that becomes very clear. What was particularly important was it's capacity to come on line almost instantly.

That's one of the things it does certainly but not the only one. The other is providing energy storage and peak generating capacity into the grid. As part of that there's some opportunistic trading (buy low / sell high) on a routine basis.

From a technical perspective there's no "barrier" between the two functions but from a contractual perspective there's a "bucket" of capacity for one purpose and another "bucket" for the other.

Thus far it has been used to stabilise the system during a number of incidents (generator trips) which have occurred interstate but there hasn't (yet) been a need to call upon it as a source of peak generating capacity as such.

Main point of my post though is a counter to all who say it's too small to be of any importance. 100 MW peak capacity isn't massive but it sure ain't trivial and as you say the ability to act real quick (FCAS - Frequency Control Ancillary Services) is also very useful especially in the SA context.

It's an impressive sight by the way. Been there and seen it first hand. It's bigger (physically) than I was expecting it to be.

 

[SirRumpole]

How have things been going with generation vs demand in the current heatwave Smurf ?

 

[sptrawler]

The take up of solar in W.A is causing its own problems, the Government has doubled the supply charge, which in turn has caused a rapid increase in disconnections. Thankfully it is a Labor Government, otherwise there would be hell to pay, in the media.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/elec...n-wa-after-power-bill-increases-ng-b88705976z

The other problem is, W.A is shutting down coal generators, in response to the reduced demand.
I wonder if we will end up like S.A, who knows, maybe that is the intention.
It will bring about large increases in power costs, maybe this will be used to install reliable backup, in one form or another.

https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/solar-may-threaten-grid-says-expert-ng-b88584548z

Even business leaders, are frustrated with the lack of realistic energy policy.
If they have a plan, they aren't telling us, because it will have scary outcomes, it has scary costs or it is going to have a big impact on our lives.
I personally don't believe, this is just an out of control train, if it is, there will be a lot of politicians in the firing line when the wreck happens.IMO

https://thewest.com.au/business/aus...y-wa-fund-manager-packer-and-co-ng-b88707679z

 

[Logique]

"I believe you have misunderstood the role of the 100 mw battery bank. It is there to stop sudden collapses of the power system when larger generaters fail and load smooth." (Basilio)

For just 30,000 SA homes, for one hour!

Mind you, at $50Mill it's been cheaper than estimates on Malcolm and Josh's Snowy 2.0 roulette wheel - $2Bill .. no $4Bill .. no $10Billion, and rising. Never going to happen.

 

[basilio]

"I believe you have misunderstood the role of the 100 mw battery bank. It is there to stop sudden collapses of the power system when larger generaters fail and load smooth." (Basilio)

For just 30,000 SA homes, for one hour!

Mind you, at $50Mill it's been cheaper than estimates on Malcolm and Josh's Snowy 2.0 roulette wheel - $2Bill .. no $4Bill .. no $10Billion, and rising. Never going to happen.

Why not check out Smurfs analysis of how the battery bank works Logique and the value it offers to stabilising the SA power system.

Really we have one of the most honest and insightful energy specialist inour forum. Bit of waste of resources if we can't respect his skills.

 

[Logique]

Why not check out Smurfs analysis of how the battery bank works Logique and the value it offers to stabilising the SA power system.
Really we have one of the most honest and insightful energy specialist inour forum. Bit of waste of resources if we can't respect his skills.

Smurf said correctly, that the Musk bank 'isn't massive', and made no mention of the $50Mill price tag. Don't distort Smurf's words to suit your personal agenda.

 

[SirRumpole]

Smurf said correctly, that the Musk bank 'isn't massive', and made no mention of the $50Mill price tag. Don't distort Smurf's words to suit your personal agenda.

$50 million compared to what ?

 

[sptrawler]

$50 million compared to what ?

That is exactly right.
The battery is a very expensive, very limited in its ability for longer term outages, and will require replacement in a relatively short time( in electrical generating plant terms).

Having said that it is probably very good for instantaneous frequency control, and it would reduce the incidence of load shedding, as long as there is some spinning reserve or fast start gas turbine generation available.
The problem is, the whole agenda is now being driven by crisis management, not by sensible long term planning.
Australia's whole electrical system is now more about the political outcome, than the delivery of a safe, secure and affordable electrical network.
Common sense, has gone completely out the window. IMO But then again isn't it happening on most fronts, everything is about smoke screens and mirrors, nothing is about the economy and how it will support our living standard.
God no don't talk about the economy, it reminds me of the Paul Hogan show, when 'Luigi the magician' stuffed up it was "dance Maria, dance Maria".

It smells like a looong, slooow, controlled, drop in living standards. IMO

 

[Tisme]

That is exactly right.
The battery is a very expensive, very limited in its ability for longer term outages, and will require replacement in a relatively short time( in electrical generating plant terms).

Having said that it is probably very good for instantaneous frequency control, and it would reduce the incidence of load shedding, as long as there is some spinning reserve or fast start gas turbine generation available.
The problem is, the whole agenda is now being driven by crisis management, not by sensible long term planning.
Australia's whole electrical system is now more about the political outcome, than the delivery of a safe, secure and affordable electrical network.
Common sense, has gone completely out the window. IMO But then again isn't it happening on most fronts, everything is about smoke screens and mirrors, nothing is about the economy and how it will support our living standard.
God no don't talk about the economy, it reminds me of the Paul Hogan show, when 'Luigi the magician' stuffed up it was "dance Maria, dance Maria".

It smells like a looong, slooow, controlled, drop in living standards. IMO

Just stumbling along, avoiding the shadows:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-...south-china-sea-tensions-nrma-advisor/7149648