The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

30MW being supplied, would indicate it is in frequency control mode, it must have some clever control systems in place.

It switched back and forth quite a few times between charging and discharging on Thursday night. Not sure if that was related to final testing or operation as such.

On other energy things:

Victoria is doing their own version of what has become known in the industry as the "Tasmanian approach". Yep, they're setting up 100 individual diesel generators outside a power station as an emergency supply to the grid. At roughly 1 MW each that's 100 MW.

They're being put outside the now closed Morwell power station and briquette works.

It's sad in a way to see diesels running on imported fuel being installed in the Latrobe Valley which has truly massive coal resources, equivalent to about 7% of the whole world's oil reserves, but that's what's happening.

 

[orr]

It's sad in a way to see diesels running on imported fuel being installed in the Latrobe Valley which has truly massive coal resources, equivalent to about 7% of the whole world's oil reserves, but that's what's happening.

You can't read the phrase...'coal is dead and buried' and not see that as fact in every way.
It's a transition Smurf; I'm reading the hard headed reports from the likes of Origin that wind and solar are the cheapest options of generation going into the future.
22,000 that's twenty two thousand pumped hydro sites identified by the Turdbull govs own inquirey into exactly those pumped hydro possibilities, a tiny fraction of this capacity capable of allowing 100% transition to a non carbon future giving a 100% 'deliverable' capacity. more than a few of those jobs created in this build would be dumped in Townsvilles surrounds.
By the way, at the stroke of a nationalistic parlimentry pen those deisel generators could be made to run on Australian natural gas. APauline could come in handy on something like this.

 

[Smurf1976]

You can't read the phrase...'coal is dead and buried' and not see that as fact in every way.

No argument from me there. But diesel is even less sustainable than coal in practically every way.

It's a transition Smurf; I'm reading the hard headed reports from the likes of Origin that wind and solar are the cheapest options of generation going into the future.

And therein lies my point.

There's a transition which ought to be done in an orderly manner which minimises costs and maintains supply reliability.

Instead we've ended up with among the most expensive power anywhere, a system which can't meet actual demands which are known to occur when it's hot, and we're now plonking shipping containers with diesel generators in them outside former power stations as a *partial* workaround that won't avoid blackouts but can be pointed to as "doing something".

It's hard to imagine a more chaotic approach to it all.

22,000 that's twenty two thousand pumped hydro sites identified by the Turdbull govs own inquirey into exactly those pumped hydro possibilities, a tiny fraction of this capacity capable of allowing 100% transition to a non carbon future giving a 100% 'deliverable' capacity.

As first discussed by Smurf on this forum many years before anyone thought Tony Abbott would become PM and long before Turnbull was on the scene in that sense. Nothing new there - the industry knew that back in the 1970's.

Actually building them before shutting too many coal-fired plants would have avoided a lot of pain though that's for sure.

By the way, at the stroke of a nationalistic parlimentry pen those deisel generators could be made to run on Australian natural gas.

Only if they source dual fuel capable units and can get the gas supply connected in time.

Based on the experience in Tas where that idea was looked at I'd say there's no way it could be done. There's a reason why we ended up with big tanks of diesel sitting literally right next to a major gas pipeline - all the gas stuff just couldn't be done quickly enough so diesel was the workaround.

Given that the ones in Vic need to be running immediately after the New Year, so early January, they've barely got enough time to plonk them all on the ground and hook the wiring up so it's too late for gas.

So it's another thing that could have been done but which was left too late. Shut some of the LNG production in Qld, redirect that gas to Moomba and from there to NSW and SA, thus enabling more gas from Longford (Vic) to be retained in Vic. The infrastructure is already there.

Overall I most certainly "get it" so far as where things are going and have done so for a very long time. None of this is a surprise to anyone in the know. Problem is, those who should have worked it out either didn't or took no action and now we're in a huge mess.

 

[sptrawler]

By the way, at the stroke of a nationalistic parlimentry pen those deisel generators could be made to run on Australian natural gas. APauline could come in handy on something like this.

We did it in Carnarvon in the late 1980's, it isn't as easy as changing the fuel tank for a gas tank or supply line.
They had to have twin injection and fired up on diesel, then there was a fuel rack change over, which cut back the diesel and introduced the LNG.
Like smurph said, the first thing you need is the LNG supply, then you need units set up to fire dual fuel, they aren't on the Bunning shelf.

 

[Smurf1976]

It all comes down to planning.

Once you've left it too late it's diesel or nothing.

Not an unreasonable thing to do in a genuinely unforeseeable emergency situation, it beats sitting in the dark, but not a good outcome where the need was easily foreseen.

 

[sptrawler]

It all comes down to planning.

Once you've left it too late it's diesel or nothing.

Not an unreasonable thing to do in a genuinely unforeseeable emergency situation, it beats sitting in the dark, but not a good outcome where the need was easily foreseen.

It's a bit like when I go bush camping, I take a dual fuel cooker, not an lpg cooker.
In the middle of nowhere, you can always pick up unleaded fuel, not so easy to get lpg.

Like you say, it goes back to the six P's, piss poor planning = piss poor performance.

 

[Value Collector]

Elon's latest product.

In only about 2.5 years since this thread opened with the above post about Elon announcing the Power wall, we now have the worlds largest battery operating right here in Australia.

 

[Smurf1976]

The SA mining town of Coober Pedy has cut back on diesel, now sourcing 70% of its electricity from wind and solar whereas previously it was 100% diesel.

The power supply now comprises 4 MW of wind generation, 1 MW solar, a 1 MW / 0.5 MWh battery and an existing 3.9 MW diesel power station.

The system is owned by Energy Developments Limited who contracted Hydro Tasmania for design and partial construction of the project. The system operates using Hydro Tasmania's proprietary control and integration technology which following earlier development in Tas has now been containerised as a commercial product. This enables off-site construction in a factory and easy transport to the site which is simpler than building it all in-situ and minimises weather-related delays.

https://www.hydro.com.au/about-us/news/2017-11/hydro-tasmania-fuels-renewable-oasis

http://www.energydevelopments.com.au/casestudies/coober-pedy-renewable-hybrid-project/

 

[sptrawler]

The SA mining town of Coober Pedy has cut back on diesel, now sourcing 70% of its electricity from wind and solar whereas previously it was 100% diesel.

The power supply now comprises 4 MW of wind generation, 1 MW solar, a 1 MW / 0.5 MWh battery and an existing 3.9 MW diesel power station.

The system is owned by Energy Developments Limited who contracted Hydro Tasmania for design and partial construction of the project. The system operates using Hydro Tasmania's proprietary control and integration technology which following earlier development in Tas has now been containerised as a commercial product. This enables off-site construction in a factory and easy transport to the site which is simpler than building it all in-situ and minimises weather-related delays.

https://www.hydro.com.au/about-us/news/2017-11/hydro-tasmania-fuels-renewable-oasis

http://www.energydevelopments.com.au/casestudies/coober-pedy-renewable-hybrid-project/

Certainly sounds like a sensible holistic approach, if a politician had been involved, they would have halved the size of the diesel.

 

[macca]

Media is starting realise there is a problem, they should be reading ASF

<<The ASX future contracts have already set bidding prices for the 2018 first quarter at $169 a megawatt hour, and bids have even reached $173.25 a megawatt hour, whereas its 2019 first quarter price is only two-thirds the price, at $116 a megawatt hour.>>

http://www.theherald.com.au/story/5107409/2018-tipped-to-be-sas-toughest-energy-year-yet/?cs=9

 

[Smurf1976]

Media is starting realise there is a problem, they should be reading ASF

To put that into perspective, not too long ago $40 was an average price (roughly) and at $80 the hydro generators were running flat out to maximise revenue from their limited water resources.

Now we're talking about average prices in SA at double what a peak price used to be.

However bad it is in SA though it's worse in Vic. That's the thing few seem to have worked out yet. Sure, it's not impossible that SA ends up in the dark whilst Vic doesn't but from a probability perspective Vic is in a worse situation certainly. Not many seem to have worked that out yet it seems.

PS - The photo in that article most certainly isn't Hazelwood power station. Looks like units 3 & 4 at Yallourn W a few km away.

 

[sptrawler]

Media is starting realise there is a problem, they should be reading ASF

<<The ASX future contracts have already set bidding prices for the 2018 first quarter at $169 a megawatt hour, and bids have even reached $173.25 a megawatt hour, whereas its 2019 first quarter price is only two-thirds the price, at $116 a megawatt hour.>>

http://www.theherald.com.au/story/5107409/2018-tipped-to-be-sas-toughest-energy-year-yet/?cs=9

Yes the media, is always arriving after the $hit has hit the fan, and covered them.

The good thing about the media, is they just jump ship, and argue the next perspective.
As long as it sells, who cares about the outcomes, perpetrated on the consumer.

 

[Smurf1976]

Yes the media, is always arriving after the $hit has hit the fan, and covered them.

That can be advantageous from an investment perspective.

When the media is full of hype about whatever investment then that's usually a good time to be selling and vice versa.

 

[sptrawler]

Media is starting realise there is a problem, they should be reading ASF

<<The ASX future contracts have already set bidding prices for the 2018 first quarter at $169 a megawatt hour, and bids have even reached $173.25 a megawatt hour, whereas its 2019 first quarter price is only two-thirds the price, at $116 a megawatt hour.>>

http://www.theherald.com.au/story/5107409/2018-tipped-to-be-sas-toughest-energy-year-yet/?cs=9

Just a sad , sorry mess, S.A, it is. Says Yoda.

Absolute FW's.

They just have to thank god, that all their industry was shut down. lol

 

[Smurf1976]

Another tight supply situation coming up in Vic on Wednesday 13 December.

Forecast maximum load = 8966 MW

Generation available within Vic = 7513 MW

Available supply from NSW, Tas, SA (combined) = 1941 MW

Reserve capacity = 489 MW

Now, there's 7 individual sources of supply currently in operation supplying Vic which are each larger than 489 MW. If any one of them fails then that's a problem (load shedding aka blackouts). There would be another one but that died in a big way back in October (it's a major failure not just a breakdown there).

I wonder how many more bullets will be dodged before the inevitable happens?

 

[sptrawler]

Another tight supply situation coming up in Vic on Wednesday 13 December.

Forecast maximum load = 8966 MW

Generation available within Vic = 7513 MW

Available supply from NSW, Tas, SA (combined) = 1941 MW

Reserve capacity = 489 MW

Now, there's 7 individual sources of supply currently in operation supplying Vic which are each larger than 489 MW. If any one of them fails then that's a problem (load shedding aka blackouts). There would be another one but that died in a big way back in October (it's a major failure not just a breakdown there).

I wonder how many more bullets will be dodged before the inevitable happens?

What I would be concerned about, isn't dodging the bullet, as I've seen that happen on many occasions.
What to me, is more concerning, is that it is happening so early in summer.
On a balanced grid, where the time is arriving that more plant is required, there may be a couple of scary days at the peak of summer.
But to have a tight margin in early summer, is really scary.

 

[Value Collector]

Some interesting points about solar.

 

[Smurf1976]

Tight supply situation in NSW tomorrow.

Forecast load = 13,580 MW

Available generation within NSW = 12,477 MW

Available supply from Qld and Vic (noting that Vic is in turn getting much of that from SA and Tas) = 2038 MW

Reserve = 935 MW

At that level it will probably be OK but it's uncomfortably low given that the largest generating units in NSW are 700 MW each and there's a total of 12 units each in the 660 - 700 MW range of which 11 are currently operational. Plus there's another 5, 4 of which are operational at present, in the 400 - 450 MW range.

So should be OK but it's a lower reserve than desirable and it would only take one failure to push the system right to the edge. If two failures then it's game over.

Mt Piper power station presently has one unit (660 MW) out of service due to boiler leaks although that's only a minor problem and shouldn't take too long to fix.

More seriously Liddell (yep, that place.....) has unit 2 out of service due to turbine cracks and it'll be toward the end of Summer at the earliest before that's likely to be fixed at this stage.

So another bullet which may or may not be dodged tomorrow, this time in NSW.

That all assumes, of course, that they don't run out of gas for gas-fired generation. Not impossible given it actually did happen earlier this year and caused some load shedding in NSW. Yep, they really did drain the pipe until it stopped working due to lack of pressure.

If it wasn't for Qld and Tas having reliable systems able to prop up the other states to some extent then things wouldn't be good at all with Vic and NSW both having run out of capacity within the state in recent days (the lights staying on due to supply from Qld, Tas and believe it or not SA).

Smurf's not predicting the end of the world here, just pointing out that this has all become alarmingly fragile and that critical infrastructure isn't in great shape really.

 

[sptrawler]

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-23/coal-fired-loy-yang-b-sold-to-alinta-owners/9185354

Well someone has faith, in being able to make money, from coal fired generation.

The Greens response, just shows how fanatical they are, god help us if they got into office.

 

[sptrawler]

Thankfully it sounds as though, long term planning is taking traction.
Even if it is only one small step, it is one giant step in the right direction, fffing 100MW batteries, give me a break.
"Sorry battery banks 1,3,5 and 7 can't respond, need replacement, won't take a charge". Copy that.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-20/malcolm-turnbull-argues-snowy-hydro-2.0-is-good-to-go/9277368

The only long term solution for on demand base load, at this point in time, unless you go nuclear.

How come when anything that sounds positive is given a negative by the Gratten Institute?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-...be-magical-solution-to-power-problems/8360320

extract:
"And whether it's privately owned or publicly owned, is this a good use of public funds? That's going to be the trick for the feasibility of the study to determine.

Wow I wonder if they asked that question of the NBN?