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The future of Australian property prices

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Belli said:
"Only 67km to Canberra." Yeah, sure thing, no worries. If you like the excitement of Sutton Road, especially at night. Otherwise it's 80+km via the Barton Highway or 110 km via the Federal Highway.

By the bye, what is not said about the "only 67km to Canberra" road is it is subject to flooding and gets wiped away quite often.
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RE talk can't be beaten when it comes to selling land or houses.
 
farmerge said:
RE talk can't be beaten when it comes to selling land or houses.
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So true. Yet, there will be issues and it's more than likely Councils could leave themselves open to litigation in the future. I'm thinking of places such as the northern suburbs of Cairns. Some are still cut off due to roads needing to be reconstructed and many of the properties are on land approved for development but known to be subject to flooding. Other places which spring to mind are Inverloch and Toora, Victoria. Only my view and I could be wrong obviously.
 
Belli said:
So true. Yet, there will be issues and it's more than likely Councils could leave themselves open to litigation in the future. I'm thinking of places such as the northern suburbs of Cairns. Some are still cut off due to roads needing to be reconstructed and many of the properties are on land approved for development but known to be subject to flooding. Other places which spring to mind are Inverloch and Toora, Victoria. Only my view and I could be wrong obviously.
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Back in the early nineties, I had a Cairns based software company doing some sub contract work on a large IT project for a mining company I was working for.
The principal of that co was a guy then in his 60's who had lived all his life in Cairns, a true local.
He had been involved in the Cairns SES for many years, and was one of their commanders.
Over a few beers I remember him telling me that the Cairns council had ignored the advice of him and other long term residents, and had allowed housing development in areas that would be raging torrents in times of big floods.
He said it would come back to haunt the council, and not surprisingly, he has been proved correct.
One of the issues he said was that so many of the decision makers were southerners who had not been in the tropics long enough to experience a real flood, such as you get from the occasional cyclone that rips through the area, or even the lingering tropical lows that can cause days on end of continuous rain.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
Back in the early nineties, I had a Cairns based software company doing some sub contract work on a large IT project for a mining company I was working for.
The principal of that co was a guy then in his 60's who had lived all his life in Cairns, a true local.
He had been involved in the Cairns SES for many years, and was one of their commanders.
Over a few beers I remember him telling me that the Cairns council had ignored the advice of him and other long term residents, and had allowed housing development in areas that would be raging torrents in times of big floods.
He said it would come back to haunt the council, and not surprisingly, he has been proved correct.
One of the issues he said was that so many of the decision makers were southerners who had not been in the tropics long enough to experience a real flood, such as you get from the occasional cyclone that rips through the area, or even the lingering tropical lows that can cause days on end of continuous rain.
Mick
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It is ok ..just blame climate change
 
Dona Ferentes said:
1 in a hundred is a dubious bit of data wrangling, when records only go back a few centuries.
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and then you have the conversion of measurement from Imperial to Metric ( that caused a few errors for a while )

i think 1 in 100 actually translates to a 1% risk every year , just a shame nobody can long range predict the next cyclone path and give some hope of successful prediction
 
Yes it it is better to express it as in any given year there is a 1% chance of a major flood occurring in a specific location. However, across all of Australia you would expect that 1% event to be exceeded somewhere far more often than once in a century.

As usual, the pointy heads have done research on these matter pre-instrument days covering around 3,000 years.

 
Belli said:
Yes it it is better to express it as in any given year there is a 1% chance of a major flood occurring in a specific location. However, across all of Australia you would expect that 1% event to be exceeded somewhere far more often than once in a century.

As usual, the pointy heads have done research on these matter pre-instrument days covering around 3,000 years.

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In the Richmond Windsor areas of Sydney in the 1890s there was devastating flood, 90% of farms were washed away.

While Governor Lachlan Macquarie was inspecting the damage he was shown a mark on some trees and rocks which was 6 metres above the current debris line and told that was the last really big one

The last flood in the area highlighted the fact that in their wisdom, the local council have not only allowed houses to be built on a flood plain they have only created two roads to allow exit.

People were ordered to evacuate, then sat in their cars at the intersections for hours in gridlock, unable to leave

It is scary how every now and then things align to create great danger for all living things.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
1 in a hundred is a dubious bit of data wrangling, when records only go back a few centuries.
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If you remember, some of the events destroying some financial tools during the GFC were not supposed to happen within nearly a million year yet surfaced within 20y of said tool even imagined.
Stats can be easily twisted..as for Covid, CC, etc..stats are often a convenient way to push a varnish of science in front of often more $ based reasons.
 
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macca said:
In the Richmond Windsor areas of Sydney in the 1890s there was devastating flood, 90% of farms were washed away.

While Governor Lachlan Macquarie was inspecting the damage he was shown a mark on some trees and rocks which was 6 metres above the current debris line and told that was the last really big one

The last flood in the area highlighted the fact that in their wisdom, the local council have not only allowed houses to be built on a flood plain they have only created two roads to allow exit.

People were ordered to evacuate, then sat in their cars at the intersections for hours in gridlock, unable to leave

It is scary how every now and then things align to create great danger for all living things.
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Looking at the gold coast:
A cyclone in the late 1800..so not that long ago, split north and south stradbroke island, well before any global warming pretext...just imagine the effect of such a repeated event now:
All marinas destroyed, gold coast wiped out and not to forget South Brisbane areas etc
We will blame CC again.
2 years of repeated rains destroyed Ireland and triggered the massive US migration.just imagine a repeat in the current world situation removing the EU Ukraine and Russia harvests..
Not to mention solar flare.risk management is pathetic, even in a major miner here I worked for.
GPS or lack of , is a Damocles sword above much of our modern word.
So council decisions are the least of our worries...
 
Australia is now seeing Apartment blocks as the future of housing inside the major metropolitan area. Unfortunately there are two very substantial problems hurting apartment buyers

1) Widespread poor quality builds that are costing owners a fortune to remediate
2) A Strata Title Management system that has been rorted by professional managers and costing owners far more than is necessary.

The ABC blew the whistle on the management of Strata Titles a couple of weeks ago. They then invited the public to forward evidnece of problems they are facing. The response has been overwhelming.

This story is worth reading in full. I have cited a small portion.

Exorbitant fees and undisclosed kickbacks: Inside the poorly regulated strata management industry​

......Evidence of the trouble is in the deluge of responses received by the ABC thus far.

In the less than two weeks since we published our findings about Netstrata, we have received more than 1,000 separate reports about suspect activities by a wide sweep of strata management companies. Practically all of the complaints appear to be credible and well-documented. Several have been lodged by people with intimate knowledge of how the industry operates.

Some of the experiences being described are simply dreadful. Extraordinary self-dealing by strata management companies, using subsidiary and associate outfits in defiance of the wishes of their owners corporations. Refusals of strata managers to abide by a termination of their contract and their ongoing extraction of management fees. The failure to return the assets and records of buildings, and the disappearance of trust funds. Police having to be called to AGM meetings.

Most concerning, perhaps, are the persistent reports that some strata managers have protected property developers from building defect warranty claims. What is being alleged is an arrangement by which a strata management firm is appointed to oversee a new building while the developer still owns a sufficient number of units in the complex to control the owners' corporation — the strata manager gains a lucrative new building management contract, and, in return, it dissuades owners from lodging claims against the builder.

Many people are also deeply upset by the ABC’s revelations concerning strata insurance.

We discovered Netstrata had been using a wholly-owned subsidiary to charge insurance broking fees at inflated rates. These fees had not been routinely disclosed to owners but had reached as high as 64 per cent of the base premium, when brokers would commonly charge between 5 and 15 per cent, and sometimes 20 per cent.

www.abc.net.au

We asked for stories about strata management. The deluge of responses describes an industry rife with suspect practices

Many strata managers know that in the long absence of proper regulation by government, the industry has become addicted to the routine exploitation of apartment owners and the easy profits that flow as a result.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
Belli said:
So true. Yet, there will be issues and it's more than likely Councils could leave themselves open to litigation in the future. I'm thinking of places such as the northern suburbs of Cairns. Some are still cut off due to roads needing to be reconstructed and many of the properties are on land approved for development but known to be subject to flooding. Other places which spring to mind are Inverloch and Toora, Victoria. Only my view and I could be wrong obviously.
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Its extraordinary that developments are allowed in flood zones worked with a bloke who invested in property in NSW from WA ended up in a flood zone 1st flood values dropped out of the sky he lost the lot including his own home.
 
qldfrog said:
It is, they truly do that and say the 1 in an 100 flood is more frequent because of cc..
well sorry, I do not like the odds anyway.no cc needed..
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A 1 in 100 year event doesn’t mean if it happens once you won’t see it again for 99 years, it’s just the probability of it occurring in any year is 1 out of 100.

Its like rolling 6 on a dice is a 1 in 6 roll event, but you can roll a 6 a dozen times in a row if you are lucky, just like you could have a 1 in 100 year flood 3 years in a row if you are lucky or unlucky depending on how you look at it.

but of course if the climate is changing so is the probability of certain weather events.
 
Value Collector said:
A 1 in 100 year event doesn’t mean if it happens once you won’t see it again for 99 years, it’s just the probability of it occurring in any year is 1 out of 100.

Its like rolling 6 on a dice is a 1 in 6 roll event, but you can roll a 6 a dozen times in a row if you are lucky, just like you could have a 1 in 100 year flood 3 years in a row if you are lucky or unlucky depending on how you look at it.

but of course if the climate is changing so is the probability of certain weather events.
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(1 percent chance of occurring every year) in a 100 year time span
 

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