The future of Australian property prices

[wayneL]

The place next door to us just went up for sale for 1.3m. First open house had about 20 groups go through.

It's certainly not as ridiculous as a year ago, but still fairly active around here.

 

[divs4ever]

This does not forebode well.

"A large Victorian-based home builder with more than 400 employees is teetering on the edge leaving dozens of subcontractors unpaid and potentially hundreds of aspiring homeowners in limbo.

Subcontractors working for Porter Davis Homes say they haven’t been paid for work done on the volume builder’s projects, leading to concerns the company is sliding towards administration."

Building industry ‘on the brink’ after two groups collapse in 24 hours

The collapse of home builder Porter Davis and civil construction group Lloyds Group has ignited fears the building industry is headed for economic crisis.

www.theage.com.au

this sort of stuff happens on a regular basis ( well at least since the '70's )

but the smart sub-contractors have sold up ( all the relevant trade assets ) and retired from the industry maybe two years ago maybe last year , either buy a business in a completely different industry or straight out retire ( either until the cycle has bottomed , or completely )

somehow the current business model still persists , despite decades of troubles ( selling off the plan , extensive use of contractors and sub-contractors )

however this is symptomatic of the current ( national ) economic cycle , where credit availability is shrinking

 

[farmerge]

this sort of stuff happens on a regular basis ( well at least since the '70's )

but the smart sub-contractors have sold up ( all the relevant trade assets ) and retired from the industry maybe two years ago maybe last year , either buy a business in a completely different industry or straight out retire ( either until the cycle has bottomed , or completely )

somehow the current business model still persists , despite decades of troubles ( selling off the plan , extensive use of contractors and sub-contractors )

however this is symptomatic of the current ( national ) economic cycle , where credit availability is shrinking

Mr Divs so very true.
We have a neighbour who is/was a Master Builder, a small family set-up. Decided to pull the plug on his business at the beginning of this year.
Is now retired, perhaps not permnently, but now does not have the stress with all that is associated with home building.

 

[Belli]

Doesn't have much a future if this is the standard of building them. Construction was completed within the last 12 months.

House collapses while family sleeps in Sydney’s south-west

The company which built a house that collapsed on Friday has vowed to co-operate with investigators and support the occupants.

www.smh.com.au

 

[farmerge]

Doesn't have much a future if this is the standard of building them. Construction was completed within the last 12 months.

House collapses while family sleeps in Sydney’s south-west

The company which built a house that collapsed on Friday has vowed to co-operate with investigators and support the occupants.

www.smh.com.au

Perhaps chinese built, cheap and nasty!!!

 

[divs4ever]

Perhaps chinese built, cheap and nasty!!!

doesn't need to be Chinese

experienced a saga of living in a hotel for three years while the residence was being inadequately repaired ( and up to four times in some sections ) and to make it worse ( for the insurer ) was the damage was exacerbated by corners cut and ( asbestos ) products used in repairs just two years previously

given that saga finished late 2019 one might wonder if standards and product quality have dropped lower since

 

[farmerge]

doesn't need to be Chinese

experienced a saga of living in a hotel for three years while the residence was being inadequately repaired ( and up to four times in some sections ) and to make it worse ( for the insurer ) was the damage was exacerbated by corners cut and ( asbestos ) products used in repairs just two years previously

given that saga finished late 2019 one might wonder if standards and product quality have dropped lower since

At best SHAMEFUL.

 

[farmerge]

doesn't need to be Chinese

experienced a saga of living in a hotel for three years while the residence was being inadequately repaired ( and up to four times in some sections ) and to make it worse ( for the insurer ) was the damage was exacerbated by corners cut and ( asbestos ) products used in repairs just two years previously

given that saga finished late 2019 one might wonder if standards and product quality have dropped lower since

Unbelieveable time frame, were they working on an hourly rate?

 

[divs4ever]

At best SHAMEFUL.

was the butt of several vitriolic comments/jokes especially after bathroom ( second time ) repair where most of the water not successfully drained in the wash-basin , was diverted to the central hallway

( newbie builder hint ) , water and newly painted plasterboard walls are not a recipe for success

BTW that bathroom still had two more total refits to come ( including the in-floor heating and water jackets ) , i did inquire on the structural integrity on the concrete slab floor ( after four massages with a jack-hammer , i just had to ask )

i guess time will tell ( at least the shower water no longer flows into the main hall-way ) ( but the bathroom extractor fan just sucks , but they already had three attempts at that )

on the plus side .. a few extra bucks and 95% of the walls are fully insulated ( after all nearly all the internal walls were replaced during the saga ) cut the rewiring costs as well ( 4 tries at that as well , after successfully destroying the forty year old water heater .. since it lived in the ceiling cavity .. for forty years without an issue , there are some extra apprehensions .. now )

 

[qldfrog]

Perhaps chinese built, cheap and nasty!!!

No no Australian standard compliance....

 

[divs4ever]

Unbelieveable time frame, were they working on an hourly rate?

tragedy after tragedy , crew after crew , contractor after contractor

take for instance the partially repaired ceiling ( which was later to be tested as an asbestos compound the 2014 repairs that is , was water resistant as well as discovered later and diverted the water in between the internal walls .. allowing mould to flourish )

but anyway , back to the ceiling repairs the 40 year old ceramic tile floor was covered with a cardboard like fibreboard ( not even 3-ply ) , gravity worked as usual in the house so dropping tradies tools broke some tiles ( more than the spares kept after construction ) 40 years ( plus old ) not only was the pattern unavailable , but also the size ..... so in comes the jack-hammer damaging the plaster-board walls in the process .. filling and painting the walls revealed water damaged walls ( and later the mould on the other side ) some walls would not dry within a week , some even bubbled , ....

please remember the ceiling needed to be replaced AGAIN , ( to remove the asbestos products ) fibreboard used on the floor once again , more dropped tools ( and not enough replacement tiles available ) rinse and repeat

mind you the staff at the hotel start thinking of us as permanent residents ( that hotels allows folks to buy rooms/suites ) even some lessees stayed a shorter time ( but the insurance company insisted on paying monthly rates extended every month )

rough guessimates ( at the time) the insurer paid out close to double the replacement cost of a brick-veneer tile roofed three bedroom house ( maybe more if you exclude the underlying vacant land cost )

for instance after the internal wall mould was discovered everything in the house was removed for cleaning or thrown in the dumpsters ( more than one one 'cos the internal walls and ceiling had to go as well ) and valued for replacement ( like about 50% on the furniture ) , now the cleaned stuff .. was stored in shipping containers and stored for , roughly two years ( and lost track of in the process ) two years in a shipping container in a flood prone area often damages paper documents and invoices , etc , high humidity and 'sweating ' ) not so gentle to the stored clothing either ( had to be cleaned again ) ( for example it was a plumbers paradise , four bathroom refits , a new toilet , a new hot water system , a new kitchen , almost two kitchen refits , somebody damaged the kitchen sink and new marble bench top ( not 'granite' ) by standing on it to replace the ceiling or range hood ( fibreboard protection at it again )

however the brick external wall and the tile roof before successfully avoided any meaningful damage ( am still nervous about the slab though ) , some doors needed repairs but the windows survived

the tile roof got damaged later during the solar panel replacement adventure ( but a different company was on the hook for that one )

 

[divs4ever]

No no Australian standard compliance....

well the dude that solved the 'leaky external flouro problem ' was an English back-packing electrician , on a working holiday , seems those annoying rubber grommets are important .

flashback to early 2016 , the red flag was three of the external lights ( under the eaves ) filled with water to such an extent that that plastic covers ( held on by one inch wide metal clips ) fell to the ground/concrete damaging the covers ( and some clips )

the final painter was a Polish engineer who was retrained ( so he could feed his family )

the comedy, farce just went on and on ( however there was an upside , my cardiologist had an office easy walking distance from the hotel less than 30 metres if you used the breezeway , taxi rank straight across the road , pharmacist closer than the cardiologist and about 400 metres from a mid-sized shopping complex ( big enough to have a Heritage branch , where i bank , and a reject shop and a Coles store , GP clinic ... the downside was it was an extra 3km away from a suitable emergency hospital ( this was the pre and post stent era for me ... the experimental stent seems to have dissolved now as it was designed to do )

 

[farmerge]

well the dude that solved the 'leaky external flouro problem ' was an English back-packing electrician , on a working holiday , seems those annoying rubber grommets are important .

flashback to early 2016 , the red flag was three of the external lights ( under the eaves ) filled with water to such an extent that that plastic covers ( held on by one inch wide metal clips ) fell to the ground/concrete damaging the covers ( and some clips )

the final painter was a Polish engineer who was retrained ( so he could feed his family )

the comedy, farce just went on and on ( however there was an upside , my cardiologist had an office easy walking distance from the hotel less than 30 metres if you used the breezeway , taxi rank straight across the road , pharmacist closer than the cardiologist and about 400 metres from a mid-sized shopping complex ( big enough to have a Heritage branch , where i bank , and a reject shop and a Coles store , GP clinic ... the downside was it was an extra 3km away from a suitable emergency hospital ( this was the pre and post stent era for me ... the experimental stent seems to have dissolved now as it was designed to do )

Well Mr Divs hopefully your housing problems have come to an end. You would have thought that the insurance mob would have gone the whole hog and demolished and rebuilt your house rather than the run with the refit and rebuild.

 

[farmerge]

was the butt of several vitriolic comments/jokes especially after bathroom ( second time ) repair where most of the water not successfully drained in the wash-basin , was diverted to the central hallway

( newbie builder hint ) , water and newly painted plasterboard walls are not a recipe for success

BTW that bathroom still had two more total refits to come ( including the in-floor heating and water jackets ) , i did inquire on the structural integrity on the concrete slab floor ( after four massages with a jack-hammer , i just had to ask )

i guess time will tell ( at least the shower water no longer flows into the main hall-way ) ( but the bathroom extractor fan just sucks , but they already had three attempts at that )

on the plus side .. a few extra bucks and 95% of the walls are fully insulated ( after all nearly all the internal walls were replaced during the saga ) cut the rewiring costs as well ( 4 tries at that as well , after successfully destroying the forty year old water heater .. since it lived in the ceiling cavity .. for forty years without an issue , there are some extra apprehensions .. now )

I think Mr Divs your saga would come under the title of "woe is me".
Obviously you have all the tradies who worked/destroyed your home on a recommendation list for home builders and renovators.

 

[divs4ever]

I think Mr Divs your saga would come under the title of "woe is me".
Obviously you have all the tradies who worked/destroyed your home on a recommendation list for home builders and renovators.

am hoping to move about 100 miles away , soon
and have recently sold down the shares in that insurance company and avoided buying into the original restoration contractor ( who is ASX listed ) , although subsequent bungles were out of their control

but some very interesting decisions where made during the saga , including importing an international assessor about half way through

the more interesting experience through all this was the journey between applying for sickness benefits , a six month flurry of tests and scans and consultations , resulting in a disability pension ( and full back-pay ), 2 months before the emergency and experimental stent was implanted , followed by a phone call 2 weeks later to 'unblind me ' from the trial because the stent had been withdrawn from use due to increased risk factors ( 30% increased mortality risk over the comparative device ) and triggering the FDA to prolong the trial from 3 years to 5 years ( as problems as the device dissolved became apparent in some participants .... and some autopsy specialists )

now lucky for me in my late teens i learned a valuable lesson for folks with major heart problems ... whatever you do DON'T panic ! ( i suppose that means explode into a bout of intense anger as well , but just guessing on that bit )

well the insurance at first didn't realize the consequences of the 2014 repairs ( i am being diplomatic on 'the repairs ' bit )

it looked like a simple downpour overwhelmed the guttering and some ( ??? ) water flowed into the eaves filling up the flouro light covers ( but surprisingly not tripping the circuit breakers , nobody seemed to worry about that ) ( well it was late afternoon and dark , everyone assumed the lights were off at the time !! ) luckily i got to the light switch just after the second cover had dropped and turned that circuit off .

obviously the use of maths and fluid dynamics is declining in our current society ( if each of three fallen light covers hold roughly one imperial gallon .. when full , how bad was the leaking event .. minimum guesses only , because the ceiling is water resistant , remember )

however the insurer received a brilliant lesson in discovery in return for their participation ( expensive and maybe even educational is was , also )

PS some friends called me the master of disaster ( i don't know why ) just because of maybe my European tour , the IRA bombed the local station in London , 100 metres from the hotel , the northern Africans were rioting in Paris as i wandered by sight-seeing , an avalanche blocking the train tunnels just after crossing in Italy ( from Switzerland ) , or other things i handle in my own unorthodox way

 

[farmerge]

Doesn't have much a future if this is the standard of building them. Construction was completed within the last 12 months.

House collapses while family sleeps in Sydney’s south-west

The company which built a house that collapsed on Friday has vowed to co-operate with investigators and support the occupants.

www.smh.com.au

Saw this ripper home on the TV news tonight. Very lucky family to have scaped the carnage.
I wonder what standard it was built to. Bamboo

 

[farmerge]

am hoping to move about 100 miles away , soon
and have recently sold down the shares in that insurance company and avoided buying into the original restoration contractor ( who is ASX listed ) , although subsequent bungles were out of their control

but some very interesting decisions where made during the saga , including importing an international assessor about half way through

the more interesting experience through all this was the journey between applying for sickness benefits , a six month flurry of tests and scans and consultations , resulting in a disability pension ( and full back-pay ), 2 months before the emergency and experimental stent was implanted , followed by a phone call 2 weeks later to 'unblind me ' from the trial because the stent had been withdrawn from use due to increased risk factors ( 30% increased mortality risk over the comparative device ) and triggering the FDA to prolong the trial from 3 years to 5 years ( as problems as the device dissolved became apparent in some participants .... and some autopsy specialists )

now lucky for me in my late teens i learned a valuable lesson for folks with major heart problems ... whatever you do DON'T panic ! ( i suppose that means explode into a bout of intense anger as well , but just guessing on that bit )

well the insurance at first didn't realize the consequences of the 2014 repairs ( i am being diplomatic on 'the repairs ' bit )

it looked like a simple downpour overwhelmed the guttering and some ( ??? ) water flowed into the eaves filling up the flouro light covers ( but surprisingly not tripping the circuit breakers , nobody seemed to worry about that ) ( well it was late afternoon and dark , everyone assumed the lights were off at the time !! ) luckily i got to the light switch just after the second cover had dropped and turned that circuit off .

obviously the use of maths and fluid dynamics is declining in our current society ( if each of three fallen light covers hold roughly one imperial gallon .. when full , how bad was the leaking event .. minimum guesses only , because the ceiling is water resistant , remember )

however the insurer received a brilliant lesson in discovery in return for their participation ( expensive and maybe even educational is was , also )

PS some friends called me the master of disaster ( i don't know why ) just because of maybe my European tour , the IRA bombed the local station in London , 100 metres from the hotel , the northern Africans were rioting in Paris as i wandered by sight-seeing , an avalanche blocking the train tunnels just after crossing in Italy ( from Switzerland ) , or other things i handle in my own unorthodox way

Mr Divs for us looking in on your disaster bad, bad for you, but a very interesting article forthrightly penned.
Hopefully when the move takes place your misfortune will not be your travelling companion.
Better still, if you happen to venture West, please give us plenty of notice, so the necessary preprations can be put in place.

 

[divs4ever]

Mr Divs for us looking in on your disaster bad, bad for you, but a very interesting article forthrightly penned.
Hopefully when the move takes place your misfortune will not be your travelling companion.
Better still, if you happen to venture West, please give us plenty of notice, so the necessary preprations can be put in place.

only moving approximately 100 miles west .. but is is on a spur of The Great Divide ( that may or may not be an omen ) unless a major earthquake ( plenty of small ones and big'uns are rare ) , only STRONG winds and HEAVY snow to really worry about ( and snow isn't so common in QLD )

well early on a nick-name was lucky , that morphed into cat , and later morphed into D9 , and that was when a couple of buddies worked out i had already torn up 13 'lives ' ( maybe more according to the professor of medicine who implanted the stent ) and that my little heart issue is called ' the Widow-Maker ' which was spotted via my first ever MRI , which the register ( correctly or incorrectly ) diagnosed as an aneurysm ( in the L.A.D ) which REALLY got them excited , by the time they organized the procedure to insert a stent the cardiologist discovered only a lesion plus some other complications so the cardiologist ( only a few years from retirement ) decided it was too problematic for him took LOTS of pictures , got the heck out marked the case 'URGENT ' and referred it to the Professor , who promptly went on holidays , ( that was December 2016 , the stent was put in March 2017 ) meanwhile my LVEF ( left ventricle ejection faction ) was 40% in October 2016 and cheerfully wandered lower to 'close to 20% ' in December ( after the lesion was diagnosed by the cardiologist ) where upon they stopped doing echo-cardiograms until June 2017 ( after the stent was implanted ) where it returned to 40% and happily trickled down to 36% and then 34% in July 2021 , .... and so they stopped doing echo-cardiograms ( it seems they have a concept if the readouts give progressively disappointing results , stop testing and doing scans ).

but so far my record is of being able to walk away from all the carnage ( give or take a scratch or two .. well most of the time , sometimes 10% of the clothing is gone as well , but i still walk away )

 

[farmerge]

only moving approximately 100 miles west .. but is is on a spur of The Great Divide ( that may or may not be an omen ) unless a major earthquake ( plenty of small ones and big'uns are rare ) , only STRONG winds and HEAVY snow to really worry about ( and snow isn't so common in QLD )

well early on a nick-name was lucky , that morphed into cat , and later morphed into D9 , and that was when a couple of buddies worked out i had already torn up 13 'lives ' ( maybe more according to the professor of medicine who implanted the stent ) and that my little heart issue is called ' the Widow-Maker ' which was spotted via my first ever MRI , which the register ( correctly or incorrectly ) diagnosed as an aneurysm ( in the L.A.D ) which REALLY got them excited , by the time they organized the procedure to insert a stent the cardiologist discovered only a lesion plus some other complications so the cardiologist ( only a few years from retirement ) decided it was too problematic for him took LOTS of pictures , got the heck out marked the case 'URGENT ' and referred it to the Professor , who promptly went on holidays , ( that was December 2016 , the stent was put in March 2017 ) meanwhile my LVEF ( left ventricle ejection faction ) was 40% in October 2016 and cheerfully wandered lower to 'close to 20% ' in December ( after the lesion was diagnosed by the cardiologist ) where upon they stopped doing echo-cardiograms until June 2017 ( after the stent was implanted ) where it returned to 40% and happily trickled down to 36% and then 34% in July 2021 , .... and so they stopped doing echo-cardiograms ( it seems they have a concept if the readouts give progressively disappointing results , stop testing and doing scans ).

but so far my record is of being able to walk away from all the carnage ( give or take a scratch or two .. well most of the time , sometimes 10% of the clothing is gone as well , but i still walk away )

After having my account with the bull and not being able to walk for about 6 months, the pleasure and extreme pain of getting back to shanks ponies instead of a wheelchair was something that only those that have suffered would understand.
Mr Divs.......I applaud you for "walking"

 

[divs4ever]

After having my account with the bull and not being able to walk for about 6 months, the pleasure and extreme pain of getting back to shanks ponies instead of a wheelchair was something that only those that have suffered would understand.
Mr Divs.......I applaud you for "walking"

the GP doesn't trust me with a wheelchair ( or a mobility scooter ) my issue is i can go from 1 to _ with very little warning ( or an abundance of alcohol ) when during the hotel saga i sometimes did that in just four steps luckily they had robust ( but padded ) carpet most places although i did brush the furniture twice .

when residing in the bush i did twist/sprain both ankles ankles at once about 500 yards from home and carrying the weekly shopping

after a brief ( involuntary ) lie-down i took a deep breath and reasoned leaving the shopping to come back tomorrow was the inferior option ( when all the damage cooled down walking would be much more uncomfortable and the extra 1000 yards for the round trip)


but the upside was i had an extra opportunity to test out my lineament making and strapping skills ( which i used for about two weeks )

PS i usually try to give myself an emergency exit with bulls and horses ( doesn't take much to spook them back at you )