The future of Australian property prices

[wayneL]

The average Aussie still see migration as at worst job competition.
As any trip to Europe will tell you, once socialism is in charge, migrants are not a threat to your job, you will keep working and pay more taxes, they will keep sucking the benefits and pensions.
So the RE market will be kept alive by renters paying with your tax money.No MP seeing anything wrong with that I guess..untill the renters decides not to pay..but we have to wait roughly 10y to see this here
It is not rince and repeat; it is :
look at Europe 20y ago, and now, and you have your crystal ball :-(

And it's intentional.

 

[Value Collector]

The average Aussie still see migration as at worst job competition.
As any trip to Europe will tell you, once socialism is in charge, migrants are not a threat to your job, you will keep working and pay more taxes, they will keep sucking the benefits and pensions.
So the RE market will be kept alive by renters paying with your tax money.No MP seeing anything wrong with that I guess..untill the renters decides not to pay..but we have to wait roughly 10y to see this here
It is not rince and repeat; it is :
look at Europe 20y ago, and now, and you have your crystal ball :-(

Go to any hospital in Sydney and try to find a doctor who’s parents were born in Australia, and I think you will find they are very thin on the ground, our medical system would collapse if you took out all the people that are either migrants or the children of migrants.

 

[Value Collector]

And it's intentional.

Low birth rate makes migration a necessity.

 

[wayneL]

Go to any hospital in Sydney and try to find a doctor who’s parents were born in Australia, and I think you will find they are very thin on the ground, our medical system would collapse if you took out all the people that are either migrants or the children of migrants.

What does that tell us?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

What does that tell us?

That the GPs are aspirational, and the specialists are a different demographic?

 

[Value Collector]

What does that tell us?

Two things I think.

1. That we rely on skilled migration to fill the gap in certain critical industries.

2. That it’s a fallacy that migrants aren’t contributing to our society and are simply going on the dole.

Until we have much better robots that can provide all the skilled labour we need, our low birth rate and ageing population will require that we allow a certain level of immigration.

 

[againsthegrain]

Low birth rate makes migration a necessity.

It doesn't solve the cause of the problem tho

 

[qldfrog]

Two things I think.

1. That we rely on skilled migration to fill the gap in certain critical industries.

2. That it’s a fallacy that migrants aren’t contributing to our society and are simply going on the dole.

Until we have much better robots that can provide all the skilled labour we need, our low birth rate and ageing population will require that we allow a certain level of immigration.

Migrants get old too...
As for point 2, visit Europe, look at figures there.
But we are different...yes we were, we used to have selective migration based on skills..real....and controlled..
As i said before, long lost time.
Why the hell would anyone qualified migrate here in 2022 if he she has a choice.
The covid lockedin situation, tax regime and real estate/cost of living does not play in our favour.
I moved here more than 2 decades ago and it was a good if not the best move.rerun this in 2022 and i would not do the same nor would i recommend it to a qualified enterprising young boy/girl...
Feeding low level workers and welfare seekers..for humanitarian reasons ...does not build an economy.
Nor doctors or medical specialists.they might fill needed gaps but do not generate gdp/ increase wealth of the nation..and the Brits or Irishs doing landscaping or roofing jobs are not really required, just pushing other aussies toward welfare..
As for asian migration, it is a serious political risk
Anyway, will create demand for RE,stuff and tax subsidies..great news for our leaders

 

[Smurf1976]

Two things I think.

1. That we rely on skilled migration to fill the gap in certain critical industries.

2. That it’s a fallacy that migrants aren’t contributing to our society and are simply going on the dole.

3. There's something seriously wrong with our education and training systems.

We seem to be short on pretty much any trade or profession that's of a "hard" nature and by that term I don't mean necessarily difficult but simply that hard facts are involved, it's right or wrong and fancy words won't get you out of it.

We're great at training people who can argue the point or write a contract. Not so great at training people who can tell you why the machine stopped or why it hurts and then fix those problems. Hence we're short on anything requiring hard technical skills be that medical, mechanical or whatever.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

It doesn't solve the cause of the problem tho

The existing inhabitants just aren't sexually attractive enough to each other to attract a mate.

Immigration allows us to import sexier people into the country to offset the overall paucity of spunks, after a while the amount of reoowrrr in the Australian gene pool will go high enough to reach a steamy equilibrium and solve the problem.

The uggos are a genetic dead end.

 

[sptrawler]

But deliveroo went bust where are they going to use their 'skills'

Taking any job outside of Sydney and Melbourne, that no one else wants. Lol
The Sydney / Melbourne people can try and maintain the bubble through Uber jobs and their huge manufacturing base.Lol

 

[Value Collector]

It doesn't solve the cause of the problem tho

Is it a problem though?

I understand we want to maintain the population, and especially have enough different age distribution, and allowing young people to migrate does this.

Long term if the global population begins to slowly decline, it’s not a bad thing it’s probably a good thing.

 

[Value Collector]

The existing inhabitants just aren't sexually attractive enough to each other to attract a mate.

No, we have just learned that sexual activity doesn’t have to equal impregnation, and that and that less kids (or even no kids) is a viable option.

 

[wayneL]

The existing inhabitants just aren't sexually attractive enough to each other to attract a mate.

Immigration allows us to import sexier people into the country to offset the overall paucity of spunks, after a while the amount of reoowrrr in the Australian gene pool will go high enough to reach a steamy equilibrium and solve the problem.

The uggos are a genetic dead end.

Speak for yerself, Champ.

 

[Value Collector]

3. There's something seriously wrong with our education and training systems.

We seem to be short on pretty much any trade or profession that's of a "hard" nature and by that term I don't mean necessarily difficult but simply that hard facts are involved, it's right or wrong and fancy words won't get you out of it.

We're great at training people who can argue the point or write a contract. Not so great at training people who can tell you why the machine stopped or why it hurts and then fix those problems. Hence we're short on anything requiring hard technical skills be that medical, mechanical or whatever.

Yep, although we do seem to be good at training international students in all sorts of things, including medical, then we offer them jobs.

Maybe the “Aussies” are getting lazy.

 

[Value Collector]

Migrants get old too...
As for point 2, visit Europe, look at figures there.
But we are different...yes we were, we used to have selective migration based on skills..real....and controlled..
As i said before, long lost time.
Why the hell would anyone qualified migrate here in 2022 if he she has a choice.
The covid lockedin situation, tax regime and real estate/cost of living does not play in our favour.
I moved here more than 2 decades ago and it was a good if not the best move.rerun this in 2022 and i would not do the same nor would i recommend it to a qualified enterprising young boy/girl...
Feeding low level workers and welfare seekers..for humanitarian reasons ...does not build an economy.
Nor doctors or medical specialists.they might fill needed gaps but do not generate gdp/ increase wealth of the nation..and the Brits or Irishs doing landscaping or roofing jobs are not really required, just pushing other aussies toward welfare..
As for asian migration, it is a serious political risk
Anyway, will create demand for RE,stuff and tax subsidies..great news for our leaders

Off-course migrants get old, just as Aussies born here would too, that’s not the point, the point is it takes 2 births per woman to maintain the population, but you can have a birth rate of less than 2 if you bring in people from over seas.

So if we have a birth rate of 1.5 per woman, but allow 0.5 people to migrate per woman we will have a stable, even as people age.

I am unsure why you think medical doesn’t contribute to GDP, how many people are sick or injured and because of medical treatment recover and return to productivity? How many people would not have survived birth without medical treatment but went on to have productive careers generating GDP.

 

[sptrawler]

Yep, although we do seem to be good at training international students in all sorts of things, including medical, then we offer them jobs.

Maybe the “Aussies” are getting lazy.

Yep, we have just found a million ways to excuse it.

 

[wayneL]

Maybe the “Aussies” are getting lazy.

In a sense, I think they are.

I can't get a decent apprentice for love nor money.

This is a well over 100k trade for a good practitioner. But it's hard Yakka and the skills pretty difficult and specialised.... much easier to FIFO and sit in a nice air conditioned haulpak for pretty good coin too.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The existing inhabitants just aren't sexually attractive enough to each other to attract a mate.

Immigration allows us to import sexier people into the country to offset the overall paucity of spunks, after a while the amount of reoowrrr in the Australian gene pool will go high enough to reach a steamy equilibrium and solve the problem.

The uggos are a genetic dead end.

as they say down the farm, Hybrid Vigour

 

[wayneL]

as they say down the farm, Hybrid Vigour

We actually call it mongrel vigour

Tomaytoes, tomahtoes I guess