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The future of Australian property prices

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Mate I'm in Sydney today in the pub and talking to some tradies, they're worried they are 50 years old and renting, I asked how much rent they paid $250/ wk.
That is unsustainable IMO and Im talking about a pub up the top end of George St near the station.
If they are the normal tradies, Sydney is in for a hell of a shock IMO.
 
sptrawler said:
Mate I'm in Sydney today in the pub and talking to some tradies, they're worried they are 50 years old and renting, I asked how much rent they paid $250/ wk.
That is unsustainable IMO and Im talking about a pub up the top end of George St near the station.
If they are the normal tradies, Sydney is in for a hell of a shock IMO.
Click to expand...
250 per week? are they renting just a room?
 
Yep, I cant see how it will work out, they were on construction at $50/hr and they were Australian.
So how that is going to work out, I certainly dont know.
 
qldfrog said:
you do not get a room for that price here in the sunny coast..think about this with basic rule-> 250$ a week for a 250k asset value..in Sydney...So yes a room shared in a small 2 or 3 bedroom flat...
Click to expand...
Like I said, I dont know how this is going to work out, you have some people thinking that things will return to how they were, where a normal wage earner can get a house.
I dont think that will happen on the East Coast.
Way too much overseas money and people coming in to support the prices IMO.
Just wish I wasnt as conservative 15 years ago. Lol
 
sptrawler said:
Like I said, I dont know how this is going to work out, you have some people thinking that things will return to how they were, where a normal wage earner can get a house.
I dont think that will happen on the East Coast.
Way too much overseas money and people coming in to support the prices IMO.
Just wish I wasnt as conservative 15 years ago. Lol
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Hi sptrawler,
Yes difficult it is, but we got through it. Just helped out a grandson today, wants to get a loan for his first house, he is married... Went around home, a carton of beer in the fridge and packet smokes on the table x 2. Said, sunshine lolly pops, that nice but you want coin in the bank, you need to stop with the cigarettes, beer well ... as you do... But save yourself a small fortune on them $50 packet of cancer sticks....

Wonder if them blokes you run into at the pub had a durry in their gobs... ?

Have a very nice night.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
sptrawler said:
Mate I'm in Sydney today in the pub and talking to some tradies, they're worried they are 50 years old and renting, I asked how much rent they paid $250/ wk.
That is unsustainable IMO and Im talking about a pub up the top end of George St near the station.
If they are the normal tradies, Sydney is in for a hell of a shock IMO.
Click to expand...
This is the story of a lot of tradies. Generally divorce wipes them out and they will give the wife and kids the house and walk.
Then rent a room in a share house near the city and away you go. Cheap eating out and plenty to do.
 
A few interesting facts about the property market.

Federal MPs have snouts planted in property trough

The biggest beneficiaries of the 20-year boom in Australian property values are clearly Australia’s federal MPs, with new analysis from News Corp showing that the share of federal MPs with three or more properties has soared by more than half since 2001: This has come as property ownership among...
www.macrobusiness.com.au www.macrobusiness.com.au
The biggest beneficiaries of the 20-year boom in Australian property values are clearly Australia’s federal MPs, with new analysis from News Corp showing that the share of federal MPs with three or more properties has soared by more than half since 2001:

This has come as property ownership among the general population has fallen 5.7% over the same period.

The biggest increase in MPs owning three or properties has come from the Labor Party, which overtook the Coalition for the first time after the 2019 election when 37.6% of Labor MPs owned at least three properties compared to 36.3% of Coalition members:

Capture-244-660x539.png
Eighteen Labor MPs in the current parliament own four or more properties, compared to just four MPs in 2001.

Australian federal MPs (including their spouses) own 526 properties, or 2.32 per person, compared to 426 in 2001 (1.88 per person):

Capture-245-660x538.png
Commenting on the result, Australian National University political scientist Patrick Leslie noted the shift represents Labor’s abandonment of its working class roots and its embrace of neoliberalism:

“Labor used to be a social democratic movement long ago and it’s shifted,” Dr Leslie said. “They’re more neoliberal than they are social democratic.”
Click to expand...
Dr Leslie also noted that the explosion in MP property portfolios is a troubling development:

“It’s certainly the case that as MPs become wealthier than the typical Australian, they might not have the same level of a sense of shared stakes with the people they’re representing when it comes to things like housing reform.”
Click to expand...
If you have ever wondered why Australia’s politicians never implement genuine policies to improve housing affordability, you only need to follow the money.
 
qldfrog said:
you do not get a room for that price here in the sunny coast..think about this with basic rule-> 250$ a week for a 250k asset value..in Sydney...So yes a room shared in a small 2 or 3 bedroom flat...
Click to expand...
Too true. A relative, lives on the Goldie/ Tweed, says the same. Among his peers, he says the bigger rental properties , say 4-5-6 bedrooms are not airBnB, but with short-term tenants, each room on a 3 month arrangement. Often even the garage has has someone ... the last in. So with a room at $250 a week, then the take by the owner is higher than a regular 12 month rental to a family unit. He also said the demographic is usually the displaced older and separated singles. Bathroom and fridge fights not uncommon. All this has come about because smaller and once affordable places just no longer exist. And the 3 months means an inability to settle.
 
sptrawler said:
If you have ever wondered why Australia’s politicians never implement genuine policies to improve housing affordability, you only need to follow the money.
Click to expand...
one aspect is that a MP/ Senator has to make a statement of assets

Members' Interests Statements​

Within 28 days of making an oath or affirmation, each Member is required to provide to the Registrar of Members' Interests a statement of the Member’s registrable interests. The registrable interests of which the Member is aware of the Member’s spouse/partner and any children wholly or mainly dependent on the Member for support must also be included in the statement.
Click to expand...

Register of Members' Interests – 47th Parliament

Register
www.aph.gov.au www.aph.gov.au

Imagine how easy it would be to be caught out with a share portfolio. A lot easier just to have one asset (or a few) that is not beholden to some perceived interest such as a property; if you owned some BHP or Bank or other company, what a field day for the rabbits at Question Time.
 
Everyone in Aust has been used to floating rate mortgages and it is hard to believe the rest of the world operates differently.

When cash rates dropped, it seems the RBA allowed lending of $188 billion of three-year fixed-rate loans to the banking system at an annual cost of between 0.1 and 0.25 per cent during the pandemic, the share of fixed-rate mortgages surged to almost 40 per cent of the stock.

The RBA estimates that around 23 per cent of all Aussie home loans – worth almost $500 billion worth – are fixed rate and will switch to variable rate by the end of 2023. And then the repayments will cruel these recent owners/ refinancers.

There was a popular model when house prices were rising, as pimped around by so-called Investment Clubs, to take out fixed rate borrowings because the repayments, being interest only and not attacking the principal, were lower. The idea was to build wealth by continually adding to the portfolio as soon as LVRs were down to 70-80%, whatever the lender would allow.

I think this model of wealth creation isn't working that well now!!

For lenders, in October 2021, APRA lifted the minimum repayment test buffer for banks to 3 percentage points. (Most non-bank lenders still use a 2.5 percentage point buffer.) But even this will likely prove to be inadequate to cope with the circa 350-400 basis point interest rate shock that the RBA is telegraphing.

EDIT .... Recent home buyers are going to get squeezed, because they have paid the highest prices in the fag-end of the boom, and, if on a finite fixed rate period, it will be doubly so.
 
wayneL said:
Tarric is a pretty handy financial analyst for a journalist (and that's not a sarcastic disparagement, I really do like his work).

Here he raises the spectre of the fixed rate cliff.

Thoughts gents, gentesses, gxnts?

Click to expand...
Tending to be stating the obvious, many have borrowed more than they can afford, on historically low interest rates.
Will it be more difficult for them if interest rates go up, yes, will they manage? Some will some wont.
Has anything changed, yes, people are less risk averse because they have lived through 20 years of relative growth.
Is it different to the U.S, yes the U.S basic wage is lower than ours in general and their lending criteria is different, also they have a larger more mature economy and pool of workers.
So IMO Australia will have another recession it 'has to have', then the ball starts rolling again as the immigration picks up, wash rinse repeat. :2twocents
The RBA wants inflation at about 2-3%, long term interest rates and growth are around 7%, will it go back there? very probably.
 
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sptrawler said:
Tending to be stating the obvious, many have borrowed more than they can afford, on historically low interest rates.
Will it be more difficult for them if interest rates go up, yes, will they manage? Some will some wont.
Has anything changed, yes, people are less risk averse because they have lived through 20 years of relative growth.
Is it different to the U.S, yes the U.S basic wage is lower than ours in general and their lending criteria is different, also they have a larger more mature economy and pool of workers.
So IMO Australia will have another recession it has to have, then the ball starts rolling again as the immigration picks up, wash rinse repeat. :2twocents
Click to expand...
Vested interests have too much interest vested in the property market to let it turn to shyte without some resolute attempts to keep it *somewhat propped up imo.... This, in spite of the best interests of the overall economy.

It won't be obvious, but something like increased immigration perhaps, as you mentioned?
 
wayneL said:
Vested interests have too much interest vested in the property market to let it turn to shyte without some resolute attempts to keep it *somewhat propped up imo.... This, in spite of the best interests of the overall economy.

It won't be obvious, but something like increased immigration perhaps, as you mentioned?
Click to expand...
They have already said they are increasing skilled immigration by 185,000 add to that the extended families, then add to that lifting the salary cap for skilled backpackers.
Will there be a shock for some? Join the dots. ?
Interest rates up, competition for jobs up, mortgage stress up?.?
Plenty of wealthy people circling. ?

Wash, rinse, repeat.
 
sptrawler said:
They have already said they are increasing skilled immigration by 185,000 add to that the extended families, then add to that lifting the salary cap for skilled backpackers.
Will there be a shock for some? Join the dots. ?
Interest rates up, competition for jobs up, mortgage stress up?.?
Plenty of wealthy people circling. ?

Wash, rinse, repeat.
Click to expand...
But deliveroo went bust where are they going to use their 'skills'
 
againsthegrain said:
But deliveroo went bust where are they going to use their 'skills'
Click to expand...
The average Aussie still see migration as at worst job competition.
As any trip to Europe will tell you, once socialism is in charge, migrants are not a threat to your job, you will keep working and pay more taxes, they will keep sucking the benefits and pensions.
So the RE market will be kept alive by renters paying with your tax money.No MP seeing anything wrong with that I guess..untill the renters decides not to pay..but we have to wait roughly 10y to see this here
It is not rince and repeat; it is :
look at Europe 20y ago, and now, and you have your crystal ball :-(
 

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