The future of Australian property prices

[medicowallet]

hello,

just let it slow down a bit? stabilize? downside risk?

thankyou
robots

I'd prefer a slowdown. Slightly below realistic growth.

It protects our investments and stops shocks. However I have got a bit of money involved, I don't mind it going on as it was, I am just not expecting it to do so.

I win either way. I just would prefer to be slightly less of a winner and reduce the risk of being a big loser.

 

[robots]

I'd prefer a slowdown. Slightly below realistic growth.

It protects our investments and stops shocks. However I have got a bit of money involved, I don't mind it going on as it was, I am just not expecting it to do so.

I win either way. I just would prefer to be slightly less of a winner and reduce the risk of being a big loser.

hello,

good for you Medicowallet,

what is realistic growth? surely it has nothing to do with income

and why do things have to follow a "formula" "history" "birth right"

thankyou
robots

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Did anybody catch this today?

http://reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=162&nav1=1226&nav2=162

There were a total of 701 auctions reported this weekend of which 529 sold
and 172 were passed in, 113 of those on a vendors bid. The clearance
rate was 75 per cent.

Yesterday's clearance rate was 76%, and today's down to 75%. That's a 1% fall overnight. I would say that sellers are entering & buyers leaving the market in droves.

 

[medicowallet]

hello,

good for you Medicowallet,

what is realistic growth? surely it has nothing to do with income

and why do things have to follow a "formula" "history" "birth right"

thankyou
robots

Realistic growth. Many things determine it: population, income, political decisions etc. Trends show what is reasonable. I'd like to see us pull back towards trend over the next five to ten years or so.

"formula"/"history"

I ask myself the same question sometimes. The thing is, that from my experience, human nature has as much to do with returns than does the underlying fundamentals of an investment. It is human nature which determines trends. At some point people will look at home ownership and stop paying too much.

It is ludicrous to have house prices soaring off the back of a strong economy, where one of the indicators of the same economy (sharemarket being a proxy for it) has tanked.

Emotion, greed, naivety, fear etc seem to play as much of a role in herd mentality as do fundamentals, especially australian stockmarket at the moment. Housing suffers this too, but people need a place to live, so as you know, they are prepared to ride it out, and it takes a huge shock to uproot it, but it can be uprooted (US).

 

[robots]

Did anybody catch this today?



Yesterday's clearance rate was 76%, and today's down to 75%. That's a 1% fall overnight. I would say that sellers are entering & buyers leaving the market in droves.

hello,

i will send that straight up to the RBA Ubiquitous, good data

should have a good impact on monetary policy

thankyou
robots

 

[trainspotter]

I apologise that you cannot understand that the bank doesn't care what asset you put up against a loan, as long as they have control over it to recover their losses. (which you have admitted, but wont admit to me that you admitted)

It is quite obvious to me that you are just arguing for argument's sake. It is typical internet attitude that to just keep ignoring fact makes your pathetic counter argument correct.

Also I never said that you said that a car was a good investment. If you consider that there is a question mark, then you can deduce that. What I was pointing out, is that a poor investment (exceptions obviously) still attracts a loan from the bank, as long as they can control the asset.

I find it mildly amusing that you keep trying to defend your incorrect position, which has been pointed out to be flawed, just to save face.

I am pathetic??? Lollolol ... Sorry old chum I have more important things to do than counter your peurile attempt at a neuter point. Like count my money in real estate whilst you felch around trying to disprove me wrong in my attempt to educate you in the finer things in life.

It is what it is ... the ball is in your court if you wish to Tally Ho and continue this but I doubt that it would have any effect on this thread other than produce you as a dunce .... Your call.

Just for old times sake ... If you place cash or shares as collateral then the bank will take a lien on this for 100%. They will lend you 100% of the value of the "ASSET". If you want to go an buy something with the "CASH" then you have EXACTLY the same amount you started with to begin with. Are you understanding what I am putting down here???? No point. If you want to TRADE IN the value you must go cap in hand to the bank to get your money back, "Please Sir can I have my money back" ???: LOLOOLLOL Why did you not just use your cash in the first place?? HAhahhahah hA A AH HAh hah ah a !

The advantage of real estate is it INCREASES in value and you can loan against it readily without the BANK telling you what you can do with your titled money. If you decide to sell it you do not need the banks approval to sign the documents to sell.

OOOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPPPPSSSSSSSIEEEEEEESSSSSSS !!

I have been in real estate and finance for over 20 years. How long have you been a Doctor??

Banks need to approve sale of a car under finance.

So are you saying that a car is a good investment? Your words are written ... not mine !

 

[medicowallet]

I am pathetic??? Lollolol ... Sorry old chum I have more important things to do than counter your peurile attempt at a neuter point. Like count my money in real estate whilst you felch around trying to disprove me wrong in my attempt to educate you in the finer things in life.

It is what it is ... the ball is in your court if you wish to Tally Ho and continue this but I doubt that it would have any effect on this thread other than produce you as a dunce .... Your call.

Just for old times sake ... If you place cash or shares as collateral then the bank will take a lien on this for 100%. They will lend you 100% of the value of the "ASSET". If you want to go an buy something with the "CASH" then you have EXACTLY the same amount you started with to begin with. Are you understanding what I am putting down here???? No point. If you want to TRADE IN the value you must go cap in hand to the bank to get your money back, "Please Sir can I have my money back" ???: LOLOOLLOL Why did you not just use your cash in the first place?? HAhahhahah hA A AH HAh hah ah a !

The advantage of real estate is it INCREASES in value and you can loan against it readily without the BANK telling you what you can do with your titled money. If you decide to sell it you do not need the banks approval to sign the documents to sell.

OOOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPPPPSSSSSSSIEEEEEEESSSSSSS !!

I have been in real estate and finance for over 20 years. How long have you been a Doctor??

Banks need to approve sale of a car under finance.

So are you saying that a car is a good investment? Your words are written ... not mine !

This post is gold. I especially love the part about house prices rising. Cash also rises in a bank account, so do shares. This is not a point made with any credibility.

Please don't go and say how much money you have, anyone can have anything over the internet. Is that response meant to make me jealous? or is it meant for me to take your erroneous post more seriously.

I responded to your lack of understanding as to how you can borrow money against security. I identified (even before I knew you had twenty years experience as a finance professional) that you probably knew this and were misleading other posters. I guess that you were not expecting someone to question your inaccurate representation.


I think I will take your invitation to discontinue my discussion with you. It has indeed been most educational. I find it interesting how you admitted you were wrong, yet vehemently defend your position with a different poster.

I would like to hope that ASF is not full of people with internet driven responses such as your own.

 

[trainspotter]

This post is gold. I especially love the part about house prices rising. Cash also rises in a bank account, so do shares. This is not a point made with any credibility.

Please don't go and say how much money you have, anyone can have anything over the internet. Is that response meant to make me jealous? or is it meant for me to take your erroneous post more seriously.

I responded to your lack of understanding as to how you can borrow money against security. I identified (even before I knew you had twenty years experience as a finance professional) that you probably knew this and were misleading other posters. I guess that you were not expecting someone to question your inaccurate representation.


I think I will take your invitation to discontinue my discussion with you. It has indeed been most educational. I find it interesting how you admitted you were wrong, yet vehemently defend your position with a different poster.

I would like to hope that ASF is not full of people with internet driven responses such as your own.

With pleasure Doctor ! With pleasure ! It is a pity you have chosen to take this antagonistic path. I never said I had money medico wallet (your words again ... not mine) I will gladly disclose to all and sundry what I am worth if you care to ask. Ho HO !

My complete apologies for my lack of understanding in this matter and I deeply and humbly apologise for any inference, misoconception, erratum, misnomer and whatever the hell you want to call it.

I wish you all the best medicowallet in your endeavours. Good bye.

 

[MACCA350]

Did anybody catch this today?

Yesterday's clearance rate was 76%, and today's down to 75%. That's a 1% fall overnight. I would say that sellers are entering & buyers leaving the market in droves.

He's actually added 41 auctions to the data. I've never actually noticed the posted numbers being revised ............though each weeks "last week" numbers show that there are always more auctions than what is originally posted.

I'd like to see the revised clearance rates going back a while to see what they actually ended up as compared to what was posted initially.

One other thing, every now and then they must post incorrect numbers as they don't add up as stated........like yesterdays numbers.........and I'm not talking small inaccuracies(ie based on yesterdays data the clearance rate was 97% ) just plugged in the new numbers and they now add up. But funny enough the reported "last week" numbers have changed from 846 to 871 and last week they were reported as 790.............so what were the revised clearance rates??? probably lost in the Bermuda triangle.

Every week, based on the actual numbers the posted clearance rate is constantly bloated by 3-7%............for example, based on the latest numbers the actual clearance rate was 71.24% not 75%. It wouldn't be much of a problem if the bloating was consistent.

Somebody tell me I've got my calculations wrong because surely they'd get things right

cheers

 

[MR.]

View attachment Investment loans as a % of Total Housing Loans $.pdf

Investment loans increased by a further 1.1% in March while owner occupied housing fell a further 3.7%
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@...05DBCE56402EC566CA25723D000F2999?opendocument

Wonder what higher interest rates of 0.25% in April and 0.25% in May will bring?

 

[gav]

look at Gav's result buying at the top last year (already 20-30% up), hahahahahahaha

And the "For Sale" sign has a big fat "Under Contract" sticker on it already. On the market for just 6 days.

 

[So_Cynical]

And the "For Sale" sign has a big fat "Under Contract" sticker on it already. On the market for just 6 days.

Well done Gav. i had to wait 9 years for my big real estate pay day.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Since 2006 gold is up 200% and there are a lot of other investements that have done much better.

Gold produces no income and it costs money to store it, for me that equals a terrible investment.

I know there are investments out the that have performed better than property. My comment was that as a stable income steam it is fantastic.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Cash is a fantastic investment.

.

Cash is another terrible investment,

Sure it may earn 5% but that 5% is taxed so the actual return is less than the inflation rate, and both your invested capital and monthly cashflow will lose buying power over time.

The only investment worse than cash is gold,

With gold you pay one person to dig it out of the ground,
then you pay another to smelt it for you,
then you pay another one to bury it and gaurd it for you,

And all this time it produces no weekly income, and you live in hope that it will rise in value and keep pace with inflation.

If you put $100K into Gold in 1980 and worked out what it was worth today then subtract all the storage fees you paid over 30 years you would have far less than you would if you put $100K into property and collected rent for 30years.

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

The only investment worse than cash is gold,

With gold you pay one person to dig it out of the ground,
then you pay another to smelt it for you,
then you pay another one to bury it and gaurd it for you,

And all this time it produces no weekly income, and you live in hope that it will rise in value and keep pace with inflation.

If you put $100K into Gold in 1980 and worked out what it was worth today then subtract all the storage fees you paid over 30 years you would have far less than you would if you put $100K into property and collected rent for 30years.

You are missing the whole point about Gold. It was traditionally invested in as a safe store of wealth (ie a currency) as opposed to cash and speculation of Real Estate & and the Stockmarket. However, I do think that there is quite a bit of speculation in gold now but that's the nature of the beast when there is far too much cheap money floating about which is not backed by gold reserves. It has to find a home somewhere.

 

[Tysonboss1]

You are missing the whole point about Gold. It was traditionally invested in as a safe store of wealth (ie a currency) as opposed to cash and speculation of Real Estate & and the Stockmarket. However, I do think that there is quite a bit of speculation in gold now but that's the nature of the beast when there is far too much cheap money floating about which is not backed by gold reserves. It has to find a home somewhere.

I would say a block of land achieves the same as gold when it comes to being a store of value, with the added bonus it generates an income and nobody can steal it.

Yes the lands value may fluctuate slightly, But so to does the gold.

 

[explod]

I would say a block of land achieves the same as gold when it comes to being a store of value, with the added bonus it generates an income and nobody can steal it.

Yes the lands value may fluctuate slightly, But so to does the gold.

Aha little grasshopper, you express the light. Down here on the Mornington Peninsula a lot of vacant land is being purchased lately, the twitchy stock market will continue to see a drift to good property and its called land banking, gold is the same, they are just preservers of wealth. They are tangible assets and a way to store away your money with no debts to anyone..

 

[skcots]

I would say a block of land achieves the same as gold when it comes to being a store of value, with the added bonus it generates an income and nobody can steal it.

Yes the lands value may fluctuate slightly, But so to does the gold.

I can make a phone call and in 5 minutes buy say $20,000 worth of bullion. It costs nothing for storage (if I am happy with an unallocated account) or I pay a little bit per month for an allocated account (less then stamp duty + council rates on property). If I choose, I can make a phone call and sell a small portion of my gold (e.g. 5%, 15% or whatever) immediately at the market rate.

I agree that property is a good investment and usually generates an income though its not equal with gold as a store of wealth.

 

[Dowdy]

Cash is another terrible investment,

Sure it may earn 5% but that 5% is taxed so the actual return is less than the inflation rate, and both your invested capital and monthly cashflow will lose buying power over time.

The only investment worse than cash is gold,

With gold you pay one person to dig it out of the ground,
then you pay another to smelt it for you,
then you pay another one to bury it and gaurd it for you,

And all this time it produces no weekly income, and you live in hope that it will rise in value and keep pace with inflation.

If you put $100K into Gold in 1980 and worked out what it was worth today then subtract all the storage fees you paid over 30 years you would have far less than you would if you put $100K into property and collected rent for 30years.

Lets clear up some gold myths:


With gold you don't pay one person to dig it out of the ground,
then you don't pay another to smelt it for you,
then you don't pay another one to bury it and gaurd it for you

When you buy physical gold you only pay spot price. All other cost are included. Like when buying a house. The final house price includes land, labour and materials.

Gold is extremely liquid (and i'm not talking about contracts, i'm talking about physical bullion). A house can stay on the market for months while waiting to get your money. Gold you can take a few kilos and start fresh in another country. ie. It's recognised as a currency everywhere in the world.

The only thing you pay for storage is a good vault. I wouldn't trust it in a bank safety deposit box as they have in the past in collapsing countries, sized all assets.

The only disadvantage with owning gold is that there are no dividends but in most cases, if you put the money into gold stocks it would of done just as good and you get dividends

 

[wayneL]

I would say a block of land achieves the same as gold when it comes to being a store of value, with the added bonus it generates an income and nobody can steal it.

Yes the lands value may fluctuate slightly, But so to does the gold.

A block of land cannot generate income unless:

a/ it is productive e.g. cropping

b/ you can lease it because someone else has a use for it... eg it has a house on it etc

The bloke sitting on the empty house block of land (AKA in NZ as a siction [which I am reliably informed is spelt "section"]) 3 doors down from me isn't getting any income from it.