The future of Australian property prices

[divs4ever]

The problem with price caps is that it suppresses production.

Higher prices promote more production, where as lower prices discourage new investment.

but there is what is sensible ... and what is politically expedient

in an era devoid of statesmen , you can only dream of what might have been

but don't be surprised if a politician rants on about 'pent-up demand ' ( without explaining how that demand built up )

 

[SirRumpole]

but there is what is sensible ... and what is politically expedient

in an era devoid of statesmen , you can only dream of what might have been

but don't be surprised if a politician rants on about 'pent-up demand ' ( without explaining how that demand built up )

Indeed so. No politician is going to tell homeowners that the value of their properties have to fall to give others a chance to get into the market, so the prices are kept artificially high.

 

[divs4ever]

Women in general are deciding to have less kids regardless of their wealth, in fact the richer people generally have less children.

I could afford to have 30 kids housed in 10 houses, but I choose to have zero.

that depends on your choice of the first wife , some are very adept at redistributing the wealth

but enjoy your retirement it sounds like it will be fully-funded , when you decide to take the 'big holiday '

 

[wayneL]

The problem with price caps is that it suppresses production.

Higher prices promote more production, where as lower prices discourage new investment.

If prices are temporarily out of whack due to war, weather or something else I guess short term price caps can work if they are also accompanied with rationing.

However if the pricing is high due to genuine long term supply demand imbalances, capping the price will only make things worse.

Eg if there is a shortage of wheat, you want the wheat price to rise so farmers are encouraged to plant more wheat. You don’t want to cap the price of wheat, because then farmers have no incentive to plant additional acres especially if the cap price is below their break even.

Most of the time the cure for high prices is high prices.

On the one hand you are applying pure Austrian economic theory to house prices. This I can agree with and agree with all the points you made there.

However I would add one pretty major caveat in that you are applying said theory to a highly manipulated and regulated market.

This introduces massive artefact to price outcome.

I don't claim to know the answer, but I do observe that the property market is FUBAR with or commentator speaking from a position of extreme bias, according to their financial position in the market (no criticism there, it is a normal human trait).

Vis a vis, if high prices are the solution to high prices, then our property market would have self corrected a long time ago. It didn't, it progressed into a point of absolute insanity, as measured on a historical real basis.

 

[Value Collector]

that depends on your choice of the first wife , some are very adept at redistributing the wealth

but enjoy your retirement it sounds like it will be fully-funded , when you decide to take the 'big holiday '

I am already “retired” from having a job, I quit full time work when I was 36, now my only “work” is investing, and I try to holiday as often as possible, don’t really want to be held down by kids.

 

[Value Collector]

On the one hand you are applying pure Austrian economic theory to house prices. This I can agree with and agree with all the points you made there.

However I would add one pretty major caveat in that you are applying said theory to a highly manipulated and regulated market.

This introduces massive artefact to price outcome.

I don't claim to know the answer, but I do observe that the property market is FUBAR with or commentator speaking from a position of extreme bias, according to their financial position in the market (no criticism there, it is a normal human trait).

Vis a vis, if high prices are the solution to high prices, then our property market would have self corrected a long time ago. It didn't, it progressed into a point of absolute insanity, as measured on a historical real basis.

If you go back to the list of 5 costs I posted, some of them can not self correct easily, for example land prices, unless people are willing to move to areas where land is cheaper, and councils allow this cheaper land to be subdivided.

But, the others will self correct to an extent and fluctuate with supply and demand.

It’s hard to know what the exact base level price of housing would be in Australia, but as I said it’s the sum of those 5 main costs I listed.

It’s not really correct to compare different countries prices and decide one is cheap and one is expensive, because they all have different taxes and circumstances, for example if housing is subject to large annual property taxes like in parts of the USA, then it’s purchase price will be artificially suppressed, and look cheap compared to a country like Australia almost no property taxes.

 

[SirRumpole]

Actually the majority are skilled.

When you say “some nations” it sounds like you want to base immigration on race.

Well, let's face I t, some countries award an Engineering Degree at about the same level as a Higher School Certificate here. Do we want them building our houses and bridges ?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

another one bites the dust. I feel sorry for those hitched to the narrative, and now trapped and losing out!! Plus the subbies, of course.

Oracle Homes goes into liquidation owing $14m and leaving 300 homes incomplete​

Oracle Homes collapses, leaving hundreds of homes incomplete and scores out of work

A building watchdog says it is a "very sorry day" for those affected by the company's announcement, including about 300 home owners and 70 employees.

www.abc.net.au

 

[divs4ever]

I am already “retired” from having a job, I quit full time work when I was 36, now my only “work” is investing, and I try to holiday as often as possible, don’t really want to be held down by kids.

good for you !!

enjoy !!

 

[Macquack]

Women in general are deciding to have less kids regardless of their wealth, in fact the richer people generally have less children.

That is "generally" why they are richer.

 

[Value Collector]

Well, let's face I t, some countries award an Engineering Degree at about the same level as a Higher School Certificate here. Do we want them building our houses and bridges ?

That’s why we have skills assessing authorities for each of the skill sets we are accepting, also we have a big foreign student industry here, so some of these “immigrants” have literally studied at Australian schools past their course and shortly after applied for citizenship.

Assessing authorities

A list of all current assessing authorities and their contact details. Applicants must contact these assessing authorities to obtain valid skills assessment.

immi.homeaffairs.gov.au

 

[Value Collector]

That is "generally" why they are richer.

Actually it’s not just that they are richer because they have less kids, basically it comes down to education and income generation, the higher the level of education women receive the less kids they have on average, they also tend to delay having children longer when they are earning higher incomes, which leads to them having less children.

You can see this play out by the breeders in the welfare class having many more kids on average than the middle class.

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I would not be surprised if birth rates of western females continue to plummet, It could just be my wife’s tik tok algorithm, but it seems like the younger generation are really open to the idea of having no kids.

Probably about 10% of my wifes tik tok feed seems to be videos from women in their 30’s listing reasons either why they don’t want kids, regret having kids or wish society was more open about how terrible the whole process is.

 

[againsthegrain]

Actually it’s not just that they are richer because they have less kids, basically it comes down to education and income generation, the higher the level of education women receive the less kids they have on average, they also tend to delay having children longer when they are earning higher incomes, which leads to them having less children.

You can see this play out by the breeders in the welfare class having many more kids on average than the middle class.

—————————
I would not be surprised if birth rates of western females continue to plummet, It could just be my wife’s tik tok algorithm, but it seems like the younger generation are really open to the idea of having no kids.

Probably about 10% of my wifes tik tok feed seems to be videos from women in their 30’s listing reasons either why they don’t want kids, regret having kids or wish society was more open about how terrible the whole process is.

There is going to be alot of angry 50 yo women high on menopause in 20 or so years saying how tick tock and men in general ruined their lives ?

 

[moXJO]

There is going to be alot of angry 50 yo women high on menopause in 20 or so years saying how tick tock and men in general ruined their lives ?

I've already started a kitten farm in anticipation of future growth.

 

[qldfrog]

Well, let's face I t, some countries award an Engineering Degree at about the same level as a Higher School Certificate here. Do we want them building our houses and bridges ?

Yes had the same feeling when i arrived here?

 

[moXJO]

The argument seems to keep coming back to "cheap workers". The problem is still the same, because the problem is: expensive housing where cheap workers are needed.

That has its own problems like public transport neglect. Mass immigration is a very lazy option.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

There is going to be alot of angry 50 yo women high on menopause in 20 or so years saying how tick tok and men in general ruined their lives ?

they've socialised themselves into that nonsense. But hey, declining birthrates, fecundity vs fertility, have been around for quite a while.

 

[Value Collector]

There is going to be alot of angry 50 yo women high on menopause in 20 or so years saying how tick tock and men in general ruined their lives ?

Or a lot of free and empowered 50 year old women living their best lives.

 

[SirRumpole]

Or a lot of free and empowered 50 year old women living their best lives.

I don't know about t 'a lot. The maternal instinct is still pretty strong. Probably quite a few of these women object to men rather than kids.

 

[Value Collector]

I don't know about t 'a lot. The maternal instinct is still pretty strong. Probably quite a few of these women object to men rather than kids.

No, the ones I am talking about on my wife’s TikTok feed are definitely objecting to the having kids mainly because either

1, they don’t want to destroy their bodies.
2, they don’t want to go through the pain of child birth.
3, they just don’t want to be tied down with kids.

These aren’t crazy stereotype anti man feminists, they are rational young women going about their business planning out their lives, and a growing number coming to the realisation that they have a choice, and are choosing less or no kids.

I seriously think the days of expecting western women to continue delivering 3 kids each is over, so will but the majority are going to have 2 or less and a growing number aren’t going to be having any.