The future of Australian property prices

[Value Collector]

Honestly I don't go doctors much at all but my son had a ear infection few months ago and every place (public) we tried to go or even get a teleconsulation was all full and booked out.

My wife also had some minor procedure done this year for which she was waiting over 1 year public as well.

Private was the only way to go with my son, that is my personal experience so not a big % of the population.

Back when I was a kid the doctor used to check the tonsils, listen to your chest make you caugh. The public doctors I have been to with my kids used google images for 'comparison and demonstration' purposes.

That might be due to liberals under investment in the sector, but I can tell you, if we subtracted all the immigrant workers out of the medical system it would be worse, not better.

 

[Value Collector]

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I have read it.

 

[Value Collector]

Probably a large number of patients in hospitals are immigrants or their children, parents or associated relatives, so I think the benefits of immigration has to take into account the costs as well.

Yes, but given that skills are a factor in whether a person is able to migrate, I believe that the average skill level of migrants is higher than locals.

Not to mention that the unskilled migrants tend to fill a lot of jobs that the average Aussie doesn’t want to do, on balance I think Australia has done very well from our immigrants, I myself am Australian born but from parents that migrated here in 1980, My father like many immigrants made his way by out working the “Aussies” and often for lower pay.

 

[qldfrog]

Agreed. You have to make good decisions to get the luck. You can't sit on your @ss and end up with a great business.

Taleb's point is that if people take similar decisions, some will still do massively better than others, due to random factors.

yes but you will find the "successful lucky" ones, will try again, and again.
I tend to hate these books as they basically lead to :
that is not fair he was lucky being rich so I am entitled to as much as him/her/them/it

 

[moXJO]

Yes, but given that skills are a factor in whether a person is able to migrate, I believe that the average skill level of migrants is higher than locals.

Not to mention that the unskilled migrants tend to fill a lot of jobs that the average Aussie doesn’t want to do, on balance I think Australia has done very well from our immigrants, I myself am Australian born but from parents that migrated here in 1980, My father like many immigrants made his way by out working the “Aussies” and often for lower pay.

Who's arguing for zero migration?
Why is the assumption of either zero migration or record numbers the only two options when talking about the level of migration?

 

[moXJO]

Absolutely but don't for one minute think that their policies are to fill the void for the the skills shortage. The main reason ( which was never the main driver anyway despite what many think) was to prop up property prices in their government sposored ponzi.
Only problem is that increasing migration again may not save property prices this time in Australia as well as many other western economies. A fundamental shift in trend is now taking place that is reversing decades long trends not just in real eastate but also the stock markets.

It's not just property prices.
It holds up the building industry and all those leech industries attached to it. Bankers, planning and council fees/rates, licensing, insurance, safety industry, realestate. It's a regular gorgefest.
Pollies make a mint.

 

[Value Collector]

Who's arguing for zero migration?
Why is the assumption of either zero migration or record numbers the only two options when talking about the level of migration?

The proposed number of 190,000 per year has been in place since 2012, and has been stable at that over that time except for 2020 and 2021 due to covid, and the majority of the 190,000 have been skilled.

So it’s not so much about “record high”, it’s more about getting back to normal.

 

[gartley]

No matter how many they bring in it will only fill some temporary skill shortages. The following is an unemployemt chart from 2007. This chart suggests that an Elliot Wave five wave structure to the downside has traced out from 2020 and a sharp reversal to the upside is imminent and could start as early as next year. It's fitting that the heading on the chart by Commsec says "Heading toward Full employment" as this is an extreme in government optimism and projecting the current trend into the future. These are perfect ingredients in terms of social mood for this reversal to occur and unemployment rate will at the very least shoot back up to 5.5% quite quickly. Notice they make mention of 22 year high ( close to the fibonacci number of 21) and 13 year low, which is in itself a fibonacci number.



Looking at a very long term chart there was a nice 5 wave structure down from 1991 till 2009. What happens after a 5 wave structure? A counter trend rally ofcourse, and as such a nice upward abc zigzag pattern from 2009 till 2021. This preceded the last 5 wave move down of the last few years. The entire move down from 1991 till 2022 is itself a zigzag of larger degree. So taking these charts at EW face value, unemplyment may shoot up to 7.5% in the years ahead before it finds resistance and then pulls back most liekly to make a higher low thereafter....

 

[divs4ever]

Agreed.

We already have a housing shortage, so why are builders going broke ?

Not because of a lack of demand but because of price increases that are pushing new buildings beyond affordability.

That won't change with increased demand unless builders cut costs and reduce quality.

Governments need to take a more holistic approach to skills shortages instead of the knee jerk reaction of increased immigration.

according to a buddy doing an extension ( because his long time family friend can't get enough PROPER tradies )
materials is a biggie ( both cost and availability ) , the afore-mentioned staff problems

the skill shortage will remain a problem it starts at the education-system level ( so they need to clean house there FIRST ) and that might be very hard to do many quality tradesmen have retired ( either filthy rich or broke and crippled ) and would be hard to lure into an instructor role

immigration the way the government does it will NOT solve the problems the last painter at a mate's house was a Polish Engineer but Australia wouldn't honor the engineering degree .. so ... , and i could add plenty more ( like 'skilled tradesmen' imported after that skill shortage was solved so they drive taxis or a 7-11 counter )

but don't worry the quality is already reducing starting at the wholesaler ( sadly the prices aren't falling in sympathy ) , ( tools , wood , fastenings , fittings )

 

[divs4ever]

Yes, but given that skills are a factor in whether a person is able to migrate, I believe that the average skill level of migrants is higher than locals.

migrants from SOME nations yes i agree , however some seem to have non-genuine certification , maybe they need a accreditation test before being granted a visa ( so even if you don't get a genuine tradesman/skilled worker they can up-skill on the job , and get the desired outcome )

 

[gartley]

According to Chris Joye who predicted the 20% rise in real estate prices during Covid and due to falling IR, Australia headed for its worst housing collapse since records began in the early 1980s.

Australia braces for "record housing collapse"

Coolabah Capital’s Chris Joye gave another dissertation on Australia’s housing market, which he says is headed for a “record collapse” that is “only likely to get worse” as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) aggressive rate hikes bite: The entire east coast of Australia, which accounts for...

www.macrobusiness.com.au

 

[SirRumpole]

The proposed number of 190,000 per year has been in place since 2012, and has been stable at that over that time except for 2020 and 2021 due to covid, and the majority of the 190,000 have been skilled.

So it’s not so much about “record high”, it’s more about getting back to normal.

I keep asking the question, "where are these people going to live ?".

Demand for housing is at record highs and builders are going broke, so an increase in demand is only going to make the situation worse.

People are living in shipping containers because they can't find or afford accommodation , and more people imports is going to make it even harder.

 

[Value Collector]

I keep asking the question, "where are these people going to live ?".

Demand for housing is at record highs and builders are going broke, so an increase in demand is only going to make the situation worse.

People are living in shipping containers because they can't find or afford accommodation , and more people imports is going to make it even harder.

We build about 50,000 new dwellings every three months in Australia, I don’t know about where you live, But hear in Brisbane there is new apartments going up all over the place, and house and land packages every where.

During the pandemic Australia’s population went down for the first time, we actually rely on immigration to maintain the population.

 

[Value Collector]

migrants from SOME nations yes i agree , however some seem to have non-genuine certification , maybe they need a accreditation test before being granted a visa ( so even if you don't get a genuine tradesman/skilled worker they can up-skill on the job , and get the desired outcome )

Actually the majority are skilled.

When you say “some nations” it sounds like you want to base immigration on race.

 

[SirRumpole]

We build about 50,000 new dwellings every three months in Australia, I don’t know about where you live, But hear in Brisbane there is new apartments going up all over the place, and house and land packages every where.

During the pandemic Australia’s population went down for the first time, we actually rely on immigration to maintain the population.

We might build them but they are so expensive that many people can't afford to live in them.

 

[moXJO]

The proposed number of 190,000 per year has been in place since 2012, and has been stable at that over that time except for 2020 and 2021 due to covid, and the majority of the 190,000 have been skilled.

So it’s not so much about “record high”, it’s more about getting back to normal.

Plus temporary visas. What are they currently running at 550k?

It's housing stock and rentals that are the problem. Nation wide rentals were something like 28,000.
We have building completion driving up stock. But in reality it will keep the shortage going.

No rentals have just as real a cost to the economy as well.

 

[moXJO]

We might build them but they are so expensive that many people can't afford to live in them.

This is the problem. All those low skilled jobs they can't fill is a big part due to the cost of housing in regional areas. Fuel prices, sht pay and travelling 2 hours is off the agenda for many. Guess it's back to packing 10 to a 2 bedroom.

So unless you are building low cost housing where it's needed, mass immigration is a lazy and scattershot approach that may end up having unintended consequences.

 

[Value Collector]

We might build them but they are so expensive that many people can't afford to live in them.

I am pretty sure they are not just sitting empty, when they are completed they will be sold or leased, both the sale and lease prices are set by the market, and will be determined by market forces, as long as sale and lease prices are high, the market will be trying to produce as many as they can. (provided the government doesn't scare investors away)

It all comes back to supply and demand, if we build more they price will drop, if we have more skilled labour the price of building will drop.

But also there is currently local migration happening, we have plenty of land in Australia, in my opinion we just need to move the population out to more regional areas, with the work from home trend this is slowly happening.

 

[Value Collector]

Plus temporary visas. What are they currently running at 550k?

It's housing stock and rentals that are the problem. Nation wide rentals were something like 28,000.
We have building completion driving up stock. But in reality it will keep the shortage going.

No rentals have just as real a cost to the economy as well.

Yep, a strong rental market will keep the demand up in the building industry, and keep the big wheels turning, its all good news for the economy, As some one with investments in Iron Ore, Banking and Real estate its all good news IMO.

 

[SirRumpole]

Yep, a strong rental market will keep the demand up in the building industry, and keep the big wheels turning, its all good news for the economy, As some one with investments in Iron Ore, Banking and Real estate its all good news IMO.

What do you call a strong rental market ?

Plenty of renters for limited housing, therefore higher rents for you ?