The future of Australian property prices

[Humid]

 

[over9k]

You Millennials are seriously the most bitter and twisted generation in history. You are also the most privileged, entitled and coddled. Must have been all those particpation trophies that made you think you were special. No wonder they call you guys the Crybaby generation.

Most of you are in your 30s, the eldest Millennials are turning 40. Most of you have had 10 or 15 years to get into property, back when prices were about half of what they are at the moment.

I'm Generation X. When I graduated from university I walked into a recession and 15% interest rates in the early 90s. The economy has been booming since the GFC, both property and financial markets. If you guys had been investing instead of buying iPhones and going on overseas trips you'd be absolutely rolling it in by now. But you guys pissed money away on stuff that doesn't matter so you could look good on social media and impress you friends and here you are.

If the train has left the station, it's because you guys just sat there waiting for the property market to correct and it didn't. You should have jumped in and enjoyed the ride up with other property owners. But you guys don't want cheap houses, you want McMansions with media rooms and swimming pools. Nothing but the best of everything for you Millennials.

All Ords Feb 2009 to June 2021 - More than doubled, even with COVID-19.

View attachment 126092

In June 2009, the average Sydney house price was $495,00. Now it's over $1 million. It's more than doubled. Why weren't you Millennials on board the train?

Sorry for the rant, but you guys need to accept responsibility for your situation instead of blaming others. You haven't been denied opportunity, you have bloody well squandered it and then sat there and pissed and moaned about it. and blamed others. You personally have blamed Boomers and immigrants for your woes. Stop complaining and take responsibility.

You're a home owner and even that's not good enough for you.



You own property, but you're bitter that it's not a nicer house or in a better neighbourhood. Nothing is ever good enough for you Millennials. You want everything the boomers have but you want it 20 years before they got it.

Be right back mate just gotta pull 100 grand out of my ass at 19 to buy a place. Because 19 year olds have that kind of money to just throw around.

Not spend 5 years at uni like you told me to only to find myself 50k in debt earning less than the dickheads that bombed out of school at 16 to be a plumber.

I took your generation's advice (go to uni go to uni to go uni go to uni) and finished uni to find myself behind 5 years of savings, 5 years of debt, $300k of mortgage repayments and earning less than if I'd bombed out of school to be a plumber and you have the gall to tell me that this is all MY fault after I did what YOU told me to.

 

[Humid]

View attachment 126098

Cheaper than rent
You want to live in the prime eastern seaboard pay the price you fools lol

 

[sptrawler]

Do 457s buy houses?

No, I was just using it as an example that encouraging immigration isn't party specific, they both have a vested interest in increasing the population, so really neither party has the moral ground on it.
I personally would rather see immigration stay really low until a manufacturing and sustainable technological industry base had been developed.
Everything has been let slip and this pandemic and the reliance on imported essential equipment has highlighted it, it really is up to one of the parties to plan a turnaround for Australia.
ATM neither party seems to have a clue, how to do it.

 

[Humid]

Be right back mate just gotta pull 100 grand out of my ass at 19 to buy a place. Because 19 year olds have that kind of money to just throw around.

Not spend 5 years at uni like you told me to only to find myself 50k in debt earning less than the dickheads that bombed out of school at 16 to be a plumber.

I took your generation's advice (go to uni go to uni to go uni go to uni) and finished uni to find myself 5 years of savings, 5 years of debt, $300k of mortgage repayments and earning less than if I'd bombed out of school to be a plumber and you have the gall to tell me that this is all MY fault after I did what YOU told me to.

Ouch ....I left school at 16 to be a plumber
Dont do it anymore ........**** job

 

[over9k]

You were saying immigration is the root cause of the problem, I only stated that both parties are responsible, you are trying to lay the blame at one parties feet.
Which is incorrect and probably driven by emotion, as opposed to data.

How can labor be responsible if they haven't been in power?

 

[Humid]

No, I was just using it as an example that encouraging immigration isn't party specific, they both have a vested interest in increasing the population, so really neither party has the moral ground on it.
I personally would rather see immigration stay really low until a manufacturing and sustainable technological industry base had been developed.
Everything has been let slip and this pandemic and the reliance on imported essential equipment has highlighted it, it really is up to one of the parties to plan a turnaround for Australia.
ATM neither party seems to have a clue, how to do it.

No 457s are not immigration you sound like a liberal.....

 

[over9k]

Ouch ....I left school at 16 to be a plumber
Dont do it anymore ........**** job

I wish I'd bombed out of school at 16 to get a trade.

But the boomers told me it was a much better idea to go to uni you see, so that's what I did.


They now tell me I am lazy & entitled for expecting half a decade of study, lost income and uni debt to give me an earning capacity greater than the average tradie.

This expectation is clearly completely unreasonable. I mean I've studied twice as hard to end up with half the purchasing power the boomers did, but I am still lazy and entitled.

 

[MovingAverage]

I'm not sure what is hotter...the Sydney property market or this thread.

70K + 90K = 160K household income.
Current ‘median’ HHI is 116K.
So firstly 50% are below this.
Plus the median value will be pulled up due to older workers earning more in the pay scale plus empty nesters earning more.
I don’t know the numbers but this would certainly suggest that a couple under 30 have a HHI of less than 100K so monthly take home would be less than 7K.

Using my example of 33% of HHI to pay the loan ($2,300) gives you a loan of possibility of $600,000 at about IR 1.5% with no stress testing !!

Thus I think $800K is certainly unaffordable for more than 50% of young families.

Just working the numbers here.

Gunnerguy

The problem with your logic is this...the median figure you are using (and I think you got this from the ATO because they publish a similar figure) is that--if I may use a stock trading analogy--it is not "volume weighted" and you have made the assumption that 50% of earners are below this medium figure. The distribution of incomes across the population is not gaussian so you cannot draw the conclusion that 50% of earners are below the medium. You can download the raw data from the ATO statistic website and plot in Excel so you will quickly see that the distribution is skewed and not gaussian and those below the medium is not 50%. I'm just working with statistics here.

 

[sptrawler]

How can labor be responsible if they haven't been in power?

It may have escaped your attention, but they were in power for 6 years, during which time they didn't reduce immigration.

At the time they were in power, they quoted that they were in favour of an increase in immigration to 50 million.

Let's not forget I'm not the one who is blaming anyone for anything, I agreed with you that immigration is a major cause, I'm only saying it isn't only one side of politics that espouse the benefits of immigration.

It is your belief that it is only the Liberals that encourage immigration, I'm just trying to keep you from distorting your data.

 

[over9k]

It may have escaped your attention, but they were in power for 6 years, during which time they didn't reduce immigration.

At the time they were in power, they quoted that they were in favour of an increase in immigration to 50 million.

Let's not forget I'm not the one who is blaming anyone for anything, I agreed with you that immigration is a major cause, I'm only saying it isn't only one side of politics that espouse the benefits of immigration.

It is your belief that it is only the Liberals that encourage immigration, I'm just trying to keep you from distorting your data.

No it isn't? I've never said anything of the sort. Stop putting words in my mouth.

 

[sptrawler]

No it isn't? I've never said anything of the sort. Stop putting words in my mouth.

Your posts #14,722.

bull****. The liberal party, the baby boomer party of australia, which has been in power for what, 90% of the past 25 years, has got us here.

Your generation voted to create this problem because it enriched you and you continue to vote to perpetuate it because it enriches you. This could all be solved virtually overnight if you actually wanted to reverse it, but you don't, do you?

C'mon trawler, who do you normally vote for?

your post # 14,724

I/We have been posting cold hard economic facts for pages now. You haven't made a single actual rebuttal.

The chief cause of the state of both the housing and the jobs market is immigration. This is a fact.

Answer my question.

I'm not putting words in your mouth, those are your quotes, the Liberals have caused the problem and the root cause is immigration.

I'm really sorry if you don't like me correcting you, but if you are quoting facts, at least be accurate.

 

[Humid]

I wish I'd bombed out of school at 16 to get a trade.

But the boomers told me it was a much better idea to go to uni you see, so that's what I did.


They now tell me I am lazy & entitled for expecting half a decade of study, lost income and uni debt to give me an earning capacity greater than the average tradie.

This expectation is clearly completely unreasonable. I mean I've studied twice as hard to end up with half the purchasing power the boomers did, but I am still lazy and entitled.

Bombed out ....I think people have been blowing wind up your arrrrse for a long time and if you had chose engineering
But seriously if anyone below your education level bombed out ....get a grip

 

[over9k]

Your posts #14,722.

your post # 14,724


I'm not putting words in your mouth, those are your quotes, the Liberals have caused the problem and the root cause is immigration.

I'm really sorry if you don't like me correcting you, but if you are quoting facts, at least be accurate.

You said that it is my belief that it is only the liberals that want mass immigration. I've never said anything of the sort. I've said that they have overwhelmingly been in power, and they want mass immigration. These are two completely different statements.

I've never once said that it is unique to the liberal party. I have pointed to the liberal party because they have been the ones in power. Again, two completely different things.

 

[greggles]

Be right back mate just gotta pull 100 grand out of my ass at 19 to buy a place. Because 19 year olds have that kind of money to just throw around.

Nobody said you had to buy a house. You could have bought a studio apartment and it still would have doubled in price.

Not spend 5 years at uni like you told me to only to find myself 50k in debt earning less than the dickheads that bombed out of school at 16 to be a plumber.

I took your generation's advice (go to uni go to uni to go uni go to uni) and finished uni to find myself behind 5 years of savings, 5 years of debt, $300k of mortgage repayments and earning less than if I'd bombed out of school to be a plumber and you have the gall to tell me that this is all MY fault after I did what YOU told me to.

I'm Generation X, I didn't tell you to do anything. We're not that much older than your generation.

 

[moXJO]

I/We have been posting cold hard economic facts for pages now. You haven't made a single actual rebuttal.

The chief cause of the state of both the housing and the jobs market is immigration. This is a fact.

Answer my question.

I think the bigger problem is too much stimulus.
It's at unprecedented levels.
Everything is up. That's not just on immigration. That was to keep everything turning. Not sure I like the house of cards that's been built.

There's also the policy of not letting recessions happen, or markets crash without massive stimulus injections.

 

[over9k]

Bombed out ....I think people have been blowing wind up your arrrrse for a long time and if you had chose engineering
But seriously if anyone below your education level bombed out ....get a grip

Bombing out implies failing academically. A lot of guys who were failing academically left school and got trades - which is the definition of bombing out.

Our teachers told us that these guys were all going to struggle their entire lives, we'd be much better off than them on account of us staying in school etc etc etc.

In reality, the complete opposite has happened.

 

[Humid]

I'm not sure what is hotter...the Sydney property market or this thread.


The problem with your logic is this...the median figure you are using (and I think you got this from the ATO because they publish a similar figure) is that--if I may use a stock trading analogy--it is not "volume weighted" and you have made the assumption that 50% of earners are below this medium figure. The distribution of incomes across the population is not gaussian so you cannot draw the conclusion that 50% of earners are below the medium. You can download the raw data from the ATO statistic website and plot in Excel so you will quickly see that the distribution is skewed and not gaussian and those below the medium is not 50%. I'm just working with statistic here.

Want to throw in the statistic of divorce in 30 years its probably more likely than fulfilling the banks expectation

 

[sptrawler]

I think the bigger problem is too much stimulus.
It's at unprecedented levels.
Everything is up. That's not just on immigration. That was to keep everything turning. Not sure I like the house of cards that's been built.

There's also the policy of not letting recessions happen, or markets crash without massive stimulus injections.

That is the current scary part, it may end up in tears IMO.

 

[over9k]

Nobody said you had to buy a house. You could have bought a studio apartment and it still would have doubled in price.



I'm Generation X, I didn't tell you to do anything. We're not that much older than your generation.

With what money?