The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

l

Ha I actually thought about this a few times in the past, skilled immigrants will take good care of them ?

Skilled immigrants will take care of all of us.

 

[over9k]

I don't have a callous disregard and I do worry for my kids and grandkids, I'm just at a loss to what you guys want to hear.

That it is going to get better, I have been saying for years that we are heading to a third world economy.
You have to come to grips with the fact, that there needs to be a minor miracle happen to stop the trajectory we are on and both parties got us there.

bull****. The liberal party, the baby boomer party of australia, which has been in power for what, 90% of the past 25 years, has got us here.

Your generation voted to create this problem because it enriched you and you continue to vote to perpetuate it because it enriches you. This could all be solved virtually overnight if you actually wanted to reverse it, but you don't, do you?

C'mon trawler, who do you normally vote for?

 

[sptrawler]

bull****. The liberal party, the baby boomer party of australia, which has been in power for what, 90% of the past 25 years, has got us here.

Your generation voted to create this problem because it enriched you and you continue to vote to perpetuate it because it enriches you. This could all be solved virtually overnight if you actually wanted to reverse it, but you don't, do you?

C'mon trawler, who do you normally vote for?

I'll tell you that, when you explain what policies you are talking about and which have been started by the Liberals and Labor.
Then at least we have something to debate other than your emotions.

 

[over9k]

I'll tell you that, when you explain what policies you are talking about and which have been started by the Liberals and Labor.
Then at least we have something to debate other than your emotions.

I/We have been posting cold hard economic facts for pages now. You haven't made a single actual rebuttal.

The chief cause of the state of both the housing and the jobs market is immigration. This is a fact.

Answer my question.

 

[Humid]

That is true Humid, but you know same as I, that prices in Perth had gone nowhere for the last 10 years, until the boom this year.
In outer suburbs, a 3x1 could be bought for around $250k Maddington, Langford etc, most couples are on $120+ combined.
I can only go of people I know, a couple of mates who work on waste management in the council as laborers and their wives work as cleaners in same council, are on $160 combined income.
So where they get this 7 times from is debatable IMO, Sydney?Melbourne maybe, and now post pandemic, low interest rates, scary stock market is probably driving the other capitals up.
I know in Perth a lot of demand is being driven by fifo's relocating here, due to border issues, even the mining towns are starting to pick up again.

This thread has nothing to do with Perth but youre a bit off the mark with 10 years I think

 

[sptrawler]

I/We have been posting cold hard economic facts for pages now. You haven't made a single actual rebuttal.

The chief cause of the state of both the housing and the jobs market is immigration. This is a fact.

Answer my question.

YES, and I posted that Kevin Rudd as recently as this week has been pushing for the immigration to be increased, which he also did when he was in office.
He is Labor, so how does that fit in your narrative?
Also the biggest importation of 457 visa workers was under Labor's 2012 - 2013 years.

 

[sptrawler]

This thread has nothing to do with Perth but youre a bit off the mark with 10 years I think

We have had a 30% rise in the last 6 months, here is a house $319k, about 12klm out of the CBD.

https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-maddington-136284730

 

[Humid]

I don't know a single tradie from my generation that isn't absolutely rolling in it, not least of all because they bought a house (or two) a good half decade or more before the rest of us. A couple of my mates have just flatly said there's no way they could buy their house again if they had to buy it now, not a hope.

One mate is an IT tech with two houses, wife, kid, kid #2 on the way and looking at buying a third place so he'll have one IP to gift to each of his kids when they turn 25 or whatever. He actually hits me up for financial planning/advice, stock tips etc all the time.


Like I keep saying, you are completely out of touch with the reality of my generation - tradies are rolling in it, uni grads are struggling. The complete OPPOSITE of everything we were told back in our teens etc when these decisions needed to be made.

That's how things are now.

Not the engineering grads I have been working with the last 10 years and believe me theres lots
Still not quite sure what they do in iron ore but?

 

[over9k]

YES, and I posted that Kevin Rudd as recently as this week has been pushing for the immigration to be increased, which he also did when he was in office.
He is Labor, so how does that fit in your narrative?
Also the biggest importation of 457 visa workers was under Labor's 2012 - 2013 years.

Not really sure what you're trying to say here. Do you think that liberal & labor are the only two parties that can be voted for or something?

 

[Humid]

We have had a 30% rise in the last 6 months, here is a house $319k, about 12klm out of the CBD.

https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-maddington-136284730

And here it is again

 

[sptrawler]

Not really sure what you're trying to say here. Do you think that liberal & labor are the only two parties that can be voted for or something?

I was just responding to the statement you made 30 minutes ago.

Quote:
bull****. The liberal party, the baby boomer party of australia, which has been in power for what, 90% of the past 25 years, has got us here.

Followed by your Quote:

I/We have been posting cold hard economic facts for pages now. You haven't made a single actual rebuttal.

The chief cause of the state of both the housing and the jobs market is immigration. This is a fact.

Answer my question.

To which I responded:

YES, and I posted that Kevin Rudd as recently as this week has been pushing for the immigration to be increased, which he also did when he was in office.
He is Labor, so how does that fit in your narrative?
Also the biggest importation of 457 visa workers was under Labor's 2012 - 2013 years.

 

[Humid]

I was just responding to the statement you made 30 minutes ago.

Quote:
bull****. The liberal party, the baby boomer party of australia, which has been in power for what, 90% of the past 25 years, has got us here.

Followed by your Quote:

I/We have been posting cold hard economic facts for pages now. You haven't made a single actual rebuttal.

The chief cause of the state of both the housing and the jobs market is immigration. This is a fact.

Answer my question.

To which I responded:

YES, and I posted that Kevin Rudd as recently as this week has been pushing for the immigration to be increased, which he also did when he was in office.
He is Labor, so how does that fit in your narrative?
Also the biggest importation of 457 visa workers was under Labor's 2012 - 2013 years.

Do 457s buy houses?

 

[Gunnerguy]

Explain to me why I'm clutching at straws or why the numbers I put up are ridiculous? Seriously, how is a teacher on $70k and a tradie on $90k a high household income. Sure there are people that earn less and I'm not suggesting everyone can afford a house--but the hypothetical I put forward is not unrealistic. If you don't like a $800k mortgage then move further out as someone else noted--you can't have you cake an eat it. Buying a house has never been easy nor without risk. To me it sounds like you're definition of affordable housing is that every single working person should be able to buy a house regardless of income?

I don't get your point about me buying back mortgages--can you expand on that further?

70K + 90K = 160K household income.
Current ‘median’ HHI is 116K.
So firstly 50% are below this.
Plus the median value will be pulled up due to older workers earning more in the pay scale plus empty nesters earning more.
I don’t know the numbers but this would certainly suggest that a couple under 30 have a HHI of less than 100K so monthly take home would be less than 7K.

Using my example of 33% of HHI to pay the loan ($2,300) gives you a loan of possibility of $600,000 at about IR 1.5% with no stress testing !!

Thus I think $800K is certainly unaffordable for more than 50% of young families.

Just working the numbers here.

Gunnerguy

 

[over9k]

I was just responding to the statement you made 30 minutes ago.

Quote:
bull****. The liberal party, the baby boomer party of australia, which has been in power for what, 90% of the past 25 years, has got us here.

Followed by your Quote:

I/We have been posting cold hard economic facts for pages now. You haven't made a single actual rebuttal.

The chief cause of the state of both the housing and the jobs market is immigration. This is a fact.

Answer my question.

To which I responded:

YES, and I posted that Kevin Rudd as recently as this week has been pushing for the immigration to be increased, which he also did when he was in office.
He is Labor, so how does that fit in your narrative?
Also the biggest importation of 457 visa workers was under Labor's 2012 - 2013 years.

Well labor haven't been in power much, have they?

Unless you're trying to say this was all caused by the couple of years of krudd/gillard we had?

 

[sptrawler]

And here it is again

Yes a lot are getting flipped in the current boom, everything is selling, like I said prices in low price areas have gone 30% in the last six months.

 

[Humid]

And here it is again

Down 50k

 

[greggles]

What am I talking about? I'm talking about your total callous disregard for any and every thing other than yourself up to and including your own children and grandchildren, that's what.


And if my kids said this stuff to me, I'd say "prove it with data", like my generation has with you.

This isn't a matter of opinion, you're just wrong, and you know it - hence the snark, the "cry me a river" type comments and everything else. You've lost the argument and you know you have, so now it's just thinly veiled "I don't give a ****" in every post.


The one thing that gives me solace is knowing that this chicken is going to come home to roost eventually because there will come a time when your generation has to be stuck in nursing homes and the like and I can assure you, that when the time comes, you are going to absolutely rot.

You Millennials are seriously the most bitter and twisted generation in history. You are also the most privileged, entitled and coddled. Must have been all those particpation trophies that made you think you were special. No wonder they call you guys the Crybaby generation.

Most of you are in your 30s, the eldest Millennials are turning 40. So you have had 10 or 15 years to get into property, back when prices were about half of what they are at the moment.

I'm Generation X. When I graduated from university I walked into a recession and 15% interest rates in the early 90s. The economy has been booming since the GFC, both property and financial markets. If you guys had been investing instead of buying iPhones and going on overseas trips you'd be absolutely rolling it in by now. But you guys pissed money away on stuff that doesn't matter so you could look good on social media and impress you friends, and now here you are.

If the train has left the station, it's because you guys just sat there waiting for the property market to correct and it didn't. You should have jumped on and enjoyed the ride up with other property owners. But you guys don't want cheap houses, you want McMansions with media rooms and swimming pools. Nothing but the best of everything for you Millennials.

All Ords Feb 2009 to June 2021 - More than doubled, even with COVID-19.



In June 2009, the average Sydney house price was $495,000. Now it's over $1 million. It's more than doubled. Why weren't you Millennials on board the train?

Sorry for the rant, but you guys need to accept responsibility for your situation instead of blaming others. You haven't been denied opportunity, you have bloody well squandered it and then sat there and pissed and moaned about it. and blamed others. You personally have blamed Boomers and immigrants for your woes. Stop complaining and take responsibility.

You're a home owner and even that's not good enough for you.

I have a house. Not the kind of place I should and not where I should either, but I have one.

You own property, but you're bitter that it's not a nicer house or in a better neighbourhood. Nothing is ever good enough for you Millennials. You want everything the boomers have but you want it 20 years before they got it.

 

[over9k]

70K + 90K = 160K household income.
Current ‘median’ HHI is 116K.
So firstly 50% are below this.
Plus the median value will be pulled up due to older workers earning more in the pay scale plus empty nesters earning more.
I don’t know the numbers but this would certainly suggest that a couple under 30 have a HHI of less than 100K so monthly take home would be less than 7K.

Using my example of 33% of HHI to pay the loan ($2,300) gives you a loan of possibility of $600,000 at about IR 1.5% with no stress testing !!

Thus I think $800K is certainly unaffordable for more than 50% of young families.

Just working the numbers here.

Gunnerguy

You'd have to break this down by age as you don't buy a place when you're 50 or whatever.

You're not going to find many 28 year olds on 90k.

 

[sptrawler]

Well labor haven't been in power much, have they?

Unless you're trying to say this was all caused by the couple of years of krudd/gillard we had?

You were saying immigration is the root cause of the problem, I only stated that both parties are responsible, you are trying to lay the blame at one parties feet.
Which is incorrect and probably driven by emotion, as opposed to data.

 

[sptrawler]

Down 50k

Did you attach a link? it isn't showing.