The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

Geez, I've been beating this drum for yonks. Let's bring on this Recession, preparedness first, clear out the deadwood Companies, then we can all start making some easy money again.

I think you are right, oops don't take that the wrong way.

 

[luutzu]

Geez, I've been beating this drum for yonks. Let's bring on this Recession, preparedness first, clear out the deadwood Companies, then we can all start making some easy money again.

Seems they prefer a bushfire as a way to clear deadwood.

Firesales aren't bad for those with the cash though.

 

[sptrawler]

Seems they prefer a bushfire as a way to clear deadwood.

Firesales aren't bad for those with the cash though.

I've never liked the idea of holding property in the SMSF, however if the crash is big enough, my mind could be changed.
No CG in the super, oh well there is more than one way to skin a sausage (bit of PC)

 

[tech/a]

I've never liked the idea of holding property in the SMSF, however if the crash is big enough, my mind could be changed.
No CG in the super, oh well there is more than one way to skin a sausage (bit of PC)

Have quite a bit but not Domestic.
Commercial one of which is my place of business.
Returning $100K a year into the fund.

You get to a point where you cant put any more in /year!

 

[sptrawler]

Have quite a bit but not Domestic.
Commercial one of which is my place of business.
Returning $100K a year into the fund.

You get to a point where you cant put any more in /year!

It's fat ducks like you, that are giving the rest of us SMSF retirees, look bad.

 

[satanoperca]

Have quite a bit but not Domestic.
Commercial one of which is my place of business.
Returning $100K a year into the fund.

You get to a point where you cant put any more in /year!

This is smart and logical for anyone who runs their own business and needs premises to work out of.
Business needs premises and has 3 choices, lease for X, lease for business owners where property is help under SMSF or buy property.

The preferred option is available and feasible, is option 2.

Why? When business owner wishes to return, they sell the business, but the property still returns a rental income for their retirement.

In many situations that I come across, the asset that a business has built up for the owners is the premises they worked from, in most small business cases, the business is not sell-able when the business owner decides to retire

 

[sptrawler]

The sad story of another young person struggling to get out of the housing market, oh how times have changed.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...kes-hold-of-home-sellers-20190201-p50v43.html

 

[luutzu]

I've never liked the idea of holding property in the SMSF, however if the crash is big enough, my mind could be changed.
No CG in the super, oh well there is more than one way to skin a sausage (bit of PC)

Yea, pretty tough to make a case for property in super. Especially when you're a decade away from retirement. I reckon it's just another scam those property spruikers want the gov't to let us hand over our cash to them today.

I told my siblings that at our current rate of contribution and my geniuses, we would retire with at least $30M [$10M a pop]... but then even I don't believe that so yah, gotta check the compound calculator a few time to still not believe it

 

[satanoperca]

https://www.afr.com/real-estate/mel...s-to-pay-in-renminbi-in-china-20190205-h1avuk

"The developer also offered a generous commission of 6 per cent to agents who sell the three and four-bedroom townhouses set on lots of 150 to 300 square metres. Prices for the homes start at $1.2 million."

Townhouses are in Burwood, Vic. Obsolute bargain at $8,000 m2.

 

[sptrawler]

It tells you, the writing is on the wall, when Aussie John is selling into a falling market.
It will be hard to move existing expensive property, post election.

https://www.domain.com.au/news/auss...smh&utm_medium=link&utm_content=pos4&ref=pos1

 

[sptrawler]

I hope things over East don't accelerate too quickly, AV Jennings 90% drop in profit seems a lot.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...lampdown-for-profit-dive-20190211-p50wxk.html

 

[luutzu]

I hope things over East don't accelerate too quickly, AV Jennings 90% drop in profit seems a lot.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...lampdown-for-profit-dive-20190211-p50wxk.html

She'll be right, mate. She'll be right.

I know of people who bought apartment four years ago and still haven't made any money. Paper-based or otherwise. And to add insult to injury, the apartment need a reno if its standard is to be above a slump or a rundown rental.

 

[satanoperca]

From above article :
"“The company believes that confidence is being suppressed by a combination of political uncertainty (especially federal tax policy), sensationalist press commentary about the outlook for residential markets and the relatively sudden tapering of residential property lending appetite of banks,” company directors told shareholders."

So everyone is tapped out on debt and debt is harder to get. Result : prices decline.

The masses are starting to see that property is not always an instant path to riches, given that the same sensationalist press who are now painting a doom picture, in the past have painted the opposite.

 

[satanoperca]

Melbourne catching up to Sydney fast.

The apartment market in Sydney starting to follow, I believe it will be in this market segment (apartments) we will see the largest falls.

 

[moXJO]

House next to me selling for $890-990k.
A year ago it would have fetched $1.4 mill. Good block, big house..... been on the market 2 weeks so far. The one across the road is trying to get $1.2mill, but good luck with that. Been on the market 4 months now.

I'm seeing a slide of $300k plus on some houses in my area from the peak about a year ago.

Building is starting to slide. Once it goes here, Sydney will be affected.

But keeping a watch on immigration and how many dwellings are available will be important. Every time you think housing is going off a cliff, they let more rich immigrants in. And its an endless supply to tap.

 

[sptrawler]

House next to me selling for $890-990k.
A year ago it would have fetched $1.4 mill. Good block, big house..... been on the market 2 weeks so far. The one across the road is trying to get $1.2mill, but good luck with that. Been on the market 4 months now.

I'm seeing a slide of $300k plus on some houses in my area from the peak about a year ago.

Building is starting to slide. Once it goes here, Sydney will be affected.

But keeping a watch on immigration and how many dwellings are available will be important. Every time you think housing is going off a cliff, they let more rich immigrants in. And its an endless supply to tap.

A relative who was a real estate agent, told me if it has sold in 6 weeks, it is priced wrong.
The immigrant thing is true, but I think from what I've read, Sydney and Melbourne are at capacity regards infrastructure.

 

[sptrawler]

A relative who was a real estate agent, told me if it has sold in 6 weeks, it is priced wrong.
The immigrant thing is true, but I think from what I've read, Sydney and Melbourne are at capacity regards infrastructure.

That should read, has not sold in 6 weeks,

 

[moXJO]

A relative who was a real estate agent, told me if it has sold in 6 weeks, it is priced wrong.
The immigrant thing is true, but I think from what I've read, Sydney and Melbourne are at capacity regards infrastructure.

Yeah, he wants way too much for it. He missed the top.

Immigration and government intervention is what can throw you. They have been ramping "big australia" for years. We are probably only halfway of where they want to be.

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah, he wants way too much for it. He missed the top.

Immigration and government intervention is what can throw you. They have been ramping "big australia" for years. We are probably only halfway of where they want to be.

That's true, but because they used housing as a buffer, when the mining boom bust, they didn't put limits on where migrants could go to.
So now they have everybody fighting to get into Sydney and Melbourne, but the infrastructure obviously can't keep up, so they have to take a breather.
Next year in my opinion, is going to be really interesting. IMO

 

[qldfrog]

There will be not limit..the more the better..more voters for labour, cheaper labor for the liberals