The future of Australian property prices

[moXJO]

This is exactly what I was talking about a while ago.
The lowering of Australian house prices is critical, that people will be hurt, is unavoidable.
The only thing that can reduce the pain and economical impact, is by deflating prices as slowly as possible, but having said that everyone except you and smurph bagged me for suggesting that.
So it obviously doesn't worry most ASF members, and if they represent the feeling of the majority of Australians, I think we are in for one hell of a shock.

I agree with deflating slowly. The current government is on the right track with this.
Housing is currently sliding down in price where I am. Tradies are also getting hard up for work and dropping prices. Many are working out of area at reduced prices which has a flow on effect. I'm also wondering about peoples levels of savings. Seems to be a lot living week to week.

I think if its played wrong then Australia is in for a major shock.

 

[satanoperca]

Source : Domain

 

[sptrawler]

I agree with deflating slowly. The current government is on the right track with this.
Housing is currently sliding down in price where I am. Tradies are also getting hard up for work and dropping prices. Many are working out of area at reduced prices which has a flow on effect. I'm also wondering about peoples levels of savings. Seems to be a lot living week to week.

I think if its played wrong then Australia is in for a major shock.

You make a good point about tradies, I am getting a gas HWS changed over to electric and a gas cooktop changed to inductive.
I was expecting a rude shock from the plumber, he quoted $200, that wouldn't have happened a couple of years ago. You would have been lucky to get one and the price would have been triple.

 

[Ann]

House price index in Australia dropped by 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to September of 2018.

 

[luutzu]

You make a good point about tradies, I am getting a gas HWS changed over to electric and a gas cooktop changed to inductive.
I was expecting a rude shock from the plumber, he quoted $200, that wouldn't have happened a couple of years ago. You would have been lucky to get one and the price would have been triple.

Why electric from gas? Aren't electricity more expensive and doesn't cook as well? OR it's Perth and always sunny so your solar does most of the work?

We replaced our old hot water tank. Those gas ones that's always on. Switched to instantaneous hot water system and the saving is quite noticeable. Maybe $150 a quarter less.

 

[sptrawler]

It sounds as though Sydney could be doing it tough this year, with property. Still it was one hell of a bubble, like all bubbles, some make money some get burnt.

https://www.watoday.com.au/business...ts-line-up-for-fire-sale-20190130-p50ulb.html

All I can say is, welcome to the Perth market, ours has been in the doldrums for a few years.

 

[luutzu]

It sounds as though Sydney could be doing it tough this year, with property. Still it was one hell of a bubble, like all bubbles, some make money some get burnt.

https://www.watoday.com.au/business...ts-line-up-for-fire-sale-20190130-p50ulb.html

All I can say is, welcome to the Perth market, ours has been in the doldrums for a few years.

Maybe load up on property-related stocks in a couple years time. Alright, maybe a decade's time.

 

[sptrawler]

Maybe load up on property-related stocks in a couple years time. Alright, maybe a decade's time.

I suppose it will really hit REIT's, which I was starting to look at, with the impending franking changes.

 

[luutzu]

I suppose it will really hit REIT's, which I was starting to look at, with the impending franking changes.

Yea, REITs gonna either go broke or a massive cap raising.

I bought Australand some years back. Doubled my (very tiny) money twice on it. First was a minor, practically nothing compared to the recent property boom... Lucky to sold out early before the correction.

Then pick up after it barely survived from a massive dilution and cap raising. Sold out a month or two before the takeover... could have made a few more bucks but yea.

REITS... shopping centres; stupid Boral and CSR, James Hardies. Not that I have any special insight, but it looks like the coming crash will take a fair chunk of time to recover from... I'm a bit shy of jumping in too early like I did with Santos and barely made it out alive.

 

[willy1111]

I suppose it will really hit REIT's, which I was starting to look at, with the impending franking changes.

My understanding, which could be wrong, is that a REIT is a Real Estate Investment Trust...trusts pass through all income, thus no company tax paid.

No company tax paid = no franking credits = would not be effected by any changes to franking credit refunds.

 

[luutzu]

My understanding, which could be wrong, is that a REIT is a Real Estate Investment Trust...trusts pass through all income, thus no company tax paid.

No company tax paid = no franking credits = would not be effected by any changes to franking credit refunds.

I don't know, can't remember. Though don't remember any franked dividends from ALZ.

I'm not too worried about these franking credit stuff from Labor. Maybe that's 'cause I'm not needing the dividends from my investment yet. So if Labor does it, companies would, say, buy back more stocks and return dividend that way, I think.

 

[satanoperca]

Got to love a self interested person expelling word of wisdom to the masses of uneducated fools.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/rea...9/news-story/1ac365cc99fb76cbebb2fad2f0b2d419

"
Billionaire apartment developer Harry Triguboff has warned this year could be worse than 2018 for Sydney and Melbourne’s already battered housing markets.

The Meriton founder called for easing of taxes to coax foreign buyers back into the market and for young people to be able to access their superannuation to buy a home."

F---k me, are you for real. Yes more foreign buyers and tax breaks will help young buyers be able to purchase a home.

Self interested twit.

"Mr Triguboff added that number of borrowers in negative equity was growing, but banks so far were not calling in loans. “And people are paying,” he told the paper. “In some ways the banks are doing a good job — they are not sending people to the wall.”"

No you di--khead, ridiculously high property prices are, and you who just wants more money, you are self interested, if you cared so much, offer people a break, gee you are only a $B air, need more money that you cannot spend.

Sorry, the idea of tax breaks and accessing super so this self interested twit can have more money that he doesn't need, is just stupid and it is time people spoke out more.

A 1 bedroom apartment in Sydney for $700K sounds like a great deal - NOT

 

[Smurf1976]

So it obviously doesn't worry most ASF members, and if they represent the feeling of the majority of Australians, I think we are in for one hell of a shock.

I think the problem is that it's simply so long since we last had a recession. It's now to the point that "the recession" to the younger half of the population is a bit like "World War 2" was to the previous generation. You know it happened and was bad but have no real comprehension of it beyond a few basic facts. Since it was so long ago and hasn't happened again you've got no serious expectation of personally living through anything like that.

We thus have people going about their activities, businesses, investments and so on either oblivious to what can happen or having dismissed it as about as likely as martians landing in one of those green spaceships with 3 legs and a red light on top like in the cartoons.

The logical and concerning conclusion from that is that many will have left absolutely no buffer to cope with something they haven't considered a credible occurrence. As such, if it does occur then it'll be rather spectacular I expect.

In contrast, in the past recessions were periodic things frequent enough that nobody would get to the point of being in senior management, of anything, without having experienced a few. Likewise with housing, most would have seen at least one recession by the time they were looking to buy property so the concept was a very real thing in their mind.

 

[sptrawler]

I remember in 1982, due to a family health issue I had to relocate to Perth, unfortunately it was bang in the middle of the recession.
The only job advertised in Perth for an electrician, was in a small family run electronics business that employed four people.
I went for the interview and when it finished, I asked how many people were they interviewing, they said they had short listed 170.

 

[Junior]

I remember in 1982, due to a family health issue I had to relocate to Perth, unfortunately it was bang in the middle of the recession.
The only job advertised in Perth for an electrician, was in a small family run electronics business that employed four people.
I went for the interview and when it finished, I asked how many people were they interviewing, they said they had short listed 170.

Did you get the gig?

 

[satanoperca]

Economies and river eco systems have a lot in common.

For a river eco system to flourish and grow, it requires a flood to clear out built up debris that has accumulated over time, the flood in turn, replenishes the dams and billabongs along it edges, where new life can be created and nutured until the next flood, where it is returned to the main river way.
We are seeing this first hand along the Murray Darling basin at the moment, result, no floods, system is dying.

So an economy is no different, replace flood with recession, debris with debt. Dams and billabongs, with startups and new ideas.

We dammed the recession for 2 long, we haven't allowed the natural course of events to transpire, we continue to kid the can down the road, in this case built a bigger dam wall, but the bigger it gets the greater the chance of major structural meltdown. In this case we have accumulated massive amount of debt and the river system (economy) is starting to get sick and slowly die.

• We have lowered IR to the lowest in history,
• we have tap every conceivable pool of capital in the economy and leverage against it with debt (future capacity),
• we have sold our land to foreigners, which should be for Australians,
• we have allowed our retires to leverage up against their super, their retirement into one asset class,
• we continue to promote economical models that are not relevant to the current world we live in.
• we need more discussion on not how to prevent a recession but how we will grow from it, flourish again and improve.
• We can keep ignoring it, but just like a tumor, if we ignore it 2 long, eventually you die.

No one likes a flood and no one likes a recession, but they are inevitable, you can try and control them, but nature will always win.

We need to accept, that if we enter into a recession, it is for a reason;

• it makes the economy and the people within it more lean,
• more hungry to survive,
• it promotes change of thinking,
• it brings on creativity,
• it flushes out inefficiency that have accumulated,
• it makes people more alert,
• more determine,
• more planned.

We have become lazy as a nation, our politicians even more so, this is a time for leaders to stand up, face adversity and work together to get us through this oncoming flood.

I use the term "we" as all of us are in this together, that is what makes a great community, a great society and a great country.

BLAME today and in the future will not see us through this, passion and determination to make our country better than it was yesterday, the week before, the year before etc etc will.

We need to look forward and work together.

Someone kindly told me I was an idealist, they were correct, but if one cannot dream, one cannot have passion, a willingness to change and face adversity, then I wonder why one wishes to live.

 

[sptrawler]

Did you get the gig?

Is the Pope a catholic? does Dolly Parton sleep on her back? do the bears $hit in the forest?
Yes I got the gig, thank God, I really needed it. It was a terrible time in my life.

 

[sptrawler]

Economies and river eco systems have a lot in common.

For a river eco system to flourish and grow, it requires a flood to clear out built up debris that has accumulated over time, the flood in turn, replenishes the dams and billabongs along it edges, where new life can be created and nutured until the next flood, where it is returned to the main river way.
We are seeing this first hand along the Murray Darling basin at the moment, result, no floods, system is dying.

So an economy is no different, replace flood with recession, debris with debt. Dams and billabongs, with startups and new ideas.

We dammed the recession for 2 long, we haven't allowed the natural course of events to transpire, we continue to kid the can down the road, in this case built a bigger dam wall, but the bigger it gets the greater the chance of major structural meltdown. In this case we have accumulated massive amount of debt and the river system (economy) is starting to get sick and slowly die.

• We have lowered IR to the lowest in history,
• we have tap every conceivable pool of capital in the economy and leverage against it with debt (future capacity),
• we have sold our land to foreigners, which should be for Australians,
• we have allowed our retires to leverage up against their super, their retirement into one asset class,
• we continue to promote economical models that are not relevant to the current world we live in.
• we need more discussion on not how to prevent a recession but how we will grow from it, flourish again and improve.
• We can keep ignoring it, but just like a tumor, if we ignore it 2 long, eventually you die.

No one likes a flood and no one likes a recession, but they are inevitable, you can try and control them, but nature will always win.

We need to accept, that if we enter into a recession, it is for a reason;

• it makes the economy and the people within it more lean,
• more hungry to survive,
• it promotes change of thinking,
• it brings on creativity,
• it flushes out inefficiency that have accumulated,
• it makes people more alert,
• more determine,
• more planned.

We have become lazy as a nation, our politicians even more so, this is a time for leaders to stand up, face adversity and work together to get us through this oncoming flood.

I use the term "we" as all of us are in this together, that is what makes a great community, a great society and a great country.

BLAME today and in the future will not see us through this, passion and determination to make our country better than it was yesterday, the week before, the year before etc etc will.

We need to look forward and work together.

Someone kindly told me I was an idealist, they were correct, but if one cannot dream, one cannot have passion, a willingness to change and face adversity, then I wonder why one wishes to live.

You are right, people reason from experience.
How does the song go? You don't know what you've got till its gone.

You can tell people something a million times, unless they have experienced it they really struggle to believe, once they have experienced it they then want to pass on that knowledge.

A bit like when you tell a child that something is hot, they look at you like you have two heads, once they have burnt themselves they take much more notice.
It actually applies to most facets of life, untill you attain an age where you listen, and process the information. Some people never get there.

 

[sptrawler]

Anyway back on topic, just read this in the SMH.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the...national-property-market-20190201-p50uzt.html

We may see some circus tumbling back flips, from silly Billy soon. IMO
I certainly hope not, like santanaperca says, sometimes we need a good enema.
The good thing is Canberra isn't feeling it, so the reality might not sink in for the pollies.

 

[Darc Knight]

Geez, I've been beating this drum for yonks. Let's bring on this Recession, preparedness first, clear out the deadwood Companies, then we can all start making some easy money again.