The future of Australian property prices

[trainspotter]

Not that this will ever happen here ! Have posted previously too many regulations and mechanisms in place to fall tragically. Also have posted that due to the softening demand of finance due to interest rate hikes will also reduce likelihood of bubble territory. Steady as she goes boys and girls.

 

[MR.]

Those gun slingin yankies have near 50% better rental yields than the fairy tale “land of Oz”

http://www.prosper.org.au/2010/04/0...o-negative-equity-someones-going-to-get-hurt/

• An end to negative gearing. Ronald Reagan, pin-up boy of the conservatives, did just this in the USA. And the release of this table before the Henry Review is made public signals the same for Australia.

NG hasn’t produced as much new housing as hoped! ...... What if housing investment loans creep even higher? ...... Keep raising interest rates?

 

[SBH]

the portfolio is my retirement fund...I am in charge, manager, no worries about the govnuts coming in and changing rules, force me into pension mode etc...

The rules can also change on property you know. Youve got a heap of assets that cant be hidden from view and a future where those with many houses will be in a small minority.... youre going to be a golden goose for the government

 

[UBIQUITOUS]

Those gun slingin yankies have near 50% better rental yields than the fairy tale “land of Oz”

http://www.prosper.org.au/2010/04/0...o-negative-equity-someones-going-to-get-hurt/

NG hasn’t produced as much new housing as hoped! ...... What if housing investment loans creep even higher? ...... Keep raising interest rates?

Thanks for the article.

The picture drawn is not pretty: it shows the nation’s ‘aspirational’ landlords, heavily weighted with borrowings, perched on a twig, waiting for the tree to grow under them.

 

[Tysonboss1]

It now appears funny to me, your assumed smart remark on the following thread (post 6)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...e-for-a-spanking/story-e6frg9io-1225844478939

If you mean "smart" as in "smart a$$" it wasn't. That was a genuine question, I was genuinely seeking answers and get a better understanding of our system.

If you look at the date of the post it was from quite some time ago, when I first became interested in the topic.

 

[MACCA350]

My favourite graphs.

Under what economic environment is the rise in interest payments (relative to household disposable income) and household gearing measures sustainable ?

What happened in 1990? Was there a change in legislation on negative gearing or related tax changes?

Seemed to be floating around 10% then started climbing to 30%. Would like to see a long term graph say over the last 100 years.

cheers

 

[MR.]

Thanks for the article.

Must be April fools with that date!

If you mean "smart" as in "smart a$$" it wasn't. That was a genuine question, I was genuinely seeking answers and get a better understanding of our system.

If you look at the date of the post it was from quite some time ago, when I first became interested in the topic.

I also (not you) failed grade one engrish and your comment appeared clear to me. Unless someone is prepared to step up to the plate for you, let it be.

Less than two hours after the insinuation another of your posts appeared as a continuation more on a serious note ie “In short the money belongs to.........”

Either no one bothered at the time to answer your original question because no one knew the answer, no one at ASF was kind enough to help you, or you were simply being a smart a$$ like a few of the others so you didn’t need to even ask the question again!

Or you really didn’t get it as near a year later showed, so why didn’t you ask again?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15145&highlight=

Nothing is wrong with not knowing something. Nothing wrong with asking questions either.
Geez, I still think property is going to fall.......

 

[MACCA350]

those graphs tell the full story....on the whole the population has a low debt, and high equity.....so what if there is an individual sprinkled here and there that is not in that situration.....its certainly not going to affect the bulk of the population...
nor of house prices
there are figures for a potential .06% home owners at risk...that is not even 1%...just over half of 1%...how that will impact on the other 99%

good luck with your arguments of a half of a % making much difference

Yeah, that over the last 20 years housing gearing as a percentage of assets has increased a whopping 200%

And when you consider the increase in asset value over the last 20 years and the effective percentage reduction that has on older mortgages, that's a huge increase.

I'd like to see a graph showing the spread of the population in gearing levels. I don't believe your suggestion that only 0.06% of home buyers would be at risk due to high gearing levels.

Have you considered that many of those with low gearing are only on the list because they've had to use their equity to(among other things) pay the deposit on their children's loan?

Say for instance a parent 100% owns a 1M property.
Child purchases a $400k property and needs help with the deposit
Parent loans them $40k to boost their current 10% deposit to 20% to reduce LMI and satisfy the banks lending criteria.

On paper:
Parent now has a reported gearing of 4%
Child now has a reported gearing of 80%
That's an average gearing of 25%

In reality:
Parents have no debt, the child owes the debt
Child owes $360k on a $400k property
That's a gearing of 90%

If I were to quote you a 25% gearing for these to people you'd assume they were responsible and should not have troubles in the future, I mean that's lower than the average for the whole of Australia right?

But look behind the curtain and you have 1 that is fine and wouldn't have a problem but the other 1, I wouldn't be so sure...........and that's 50% of the owners in the figures, far from 0.06%

I know it's simplistic, but my point is you can't assume that such a low percentage are highly geared based on an average gearing of 30%

cheers

 

[Fleeta]

Anyone believe this? 7 o'clock or 12 o'clock?

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/property-clock-is-ticking/story-e6frfh4f-1225854104139

 

[satanoperca]

Those gun slingin yankies have near 50% better rental yields than the fairy tale “land of Oz”

http://www.prosper.org.au/2010/04/0...o-negative-equity-someones-going-to-get-hurt/

Great article showing who is paying for the speculations to obtain wealth without work, the taxpayers.

The ATO says people earning between $30,000 and $75,000 represented the largest group of taxpayers who held property investments and they claimed $3.6 billion in losses

This alone is scary & in 2008 69% of IP's ran at a loss.

I too find the argument of 0.06% of people could get in trouble extremely far fetched.

From Wiki

Deduction of negative gearing losses on property against income from other sources for the purpose of reducing income tax is illegal in the vast majority of countries, the exceptions being Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

Isn't it interesting, no NG property market crashes, with tax payers support, no property correction.

The argument that if NG is removed it will lead to a shortage of houses seems not the case as we just have to look at the US as an example.

Cheers

 

[cutz]

Anyone believe this? 7 o'clock or 12 o'clock?

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/property-clock-is-ticking/story-e6frfh4f-1225854104139

Tick Tock it's 12 O'Clock.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Must be April fools with that date!



I also (not you) failed grade one engrish and your comment appeared clear to me. Unless someone is prepared to step up to the plate for you, let it be.

Less than two hours after the insinuation another of your posts appeared as a continuation more on a serious note ie “In short the money belongs to.........”

Either no one bothered at the time to answer your original question because no one knew the answer, no one at ASF was kind enough to help you, or you were simply being a smart a$$ like a few of the others so you didn’t need to even ask the question again!

Or you really didn’t get it as near a year later showed, so why didn’t you ask again?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15145&highlight=

Nothing is wrong with not knowing something. Nothing wrong with asking questions either.
Geez, I still think property is going to fall.......

Ok, Now I am just confused.

I really don't know the point you are getting at.

 

[MR.]

That was a genuine question, I was genuinely seeking answers

Ok... movin on!

 

[CamKawa]

Good luck Robots.

REIV releases March quarter median prices

MELBOURNE house prices dropped $10,000 on average in the first three months of the year as rising interest rates priced many buyers out of the market.

 

[kincella]

a drop of 2% after a rise of 29.5% for the year, and after a rise of 52% in 5 years.....for houses
units rose another 2% in the quarter, 25% for the year, 54% over past 5 years....
but you guys are waiting for prices to return to the 1980's....or 2000 at the worst...
you might need to consider all those Asians buying up here....the more China tries to cool its market, the more the investors will be attracted to the Aus market...

 

[satanoperca]

Good luck Robots.

REIV releases March quarter median prices

MELBOURNE house prices dropped $10,000 on average in the first three months of the year as rising interest rates priced many buyers out of the market.

Should read :

MELBOURNE house prices dropped $10,000[/URL] on average in the first three months of the year as historically low interest rates priced many buyers out of the market.

Cheers

 

[MACCA350]

And here's the graph:
REIV

Historically December quarter is a peak which then drops off in the March quarter, I think if there is a drop next quarter that would show a significant change in the upward trend.

cheers

 

[kincella]

so can you understand from that graph...just why some of us are happy with this type of investment

 

[CamKawa]

If the best data manipulation REIV can come up with is a -2% loss then house prices across Melbourne must have really tanked.

 

[MR.]

News Flash:

After further investigations by some of the leading ASF members it was found that of the 128 primary school children surveyed by “international property spruikers, estate agents, Colliers International” in south western Africa the majority didn’t know where Australia was. The majority didn’t seem to care either!

This has lead to further investigations by ASF and it was found that the questions asked used the “play school” clock and some 60% of the grade 3 children said the time at the property of Australia would be 7 o’clock when the Southern African property time was 9.