The future of Australian property prices
- Thread starter Joe Blow
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hello,
oh yeah:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/keens-long-march-to-lower-house-prices-20100414-sdn0.html
off he goes the leader of the handout crew who got it so so so so wrong, yeah i reckon people would be happy they followed the failed prophecies of this guy
embarrassment to the world of economics, its apparent these guys are mostly like Alan Kohler on the ABC1, good at putting up a graph after the event
follow ASF for the true thinkers
thankyou
robots
oh yeah:
http://www.theage.com.au/business/keens-long-march-to-lower-house-prices-20100414-sdn0.html
off he goes the leader of the handout crew who got it so so so so wrong, yeah i reckon people would be happy they followed the failed prophecies of this guy
embarrassment to the world of economics, its apparent these guys are mostly like Alan Kohler on the ABC1, good at putting up a graph after the event
follow ASF for the true thinkers
thankyou
robots
professor_frink
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Robots,
No need for that graph in every post
No need for that graph in every post
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Thanks again Robots. September is only 5 months away. Tick Tick Tick...
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Sorry Robots, but he may have got the housing decline timing wrong but he still may be proven correct over the next couple of years.
He did predict the GFC, cannot say to many ASF or other economist were able to do so.
Way berate someone who has a different opinion to yours, how is he part of the handout crew?
It seems that you as a PI believe that you are providing some good wholesome benefit to the community by providing rental accommodation when really it is the taxpayers who allow you this benefit.
Cheers
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Found some questions above!
.........
Two associated comments by turning a graph upside down, but none from two graphs on page 58 which took 100 times longer to put together.
I think Robots, even that (Shane Oliver "finally") has got things worked out. Should have read your convincing posts back in 2004 hey Robots! Have noticed your chart reflects that period. However IMO it's not 2004 now as much as Tech/a and some others would like to think.
Here's my take:
We are a long way from Japan, US or UK with their interest rates. If anything catastrophic happens here or to "China" I can imagine what the interest rates are going to do here since we have a lot of room to move. We have seen the result of low interest rates of late in relation to property and the rates have not near returned half of their fall and aren't likely to. High property prices are likely to be sustained..... More and more debt. Sad chain of events really......
Time to be positive and for me to simply buy something else......
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Keen has gone from a crash in one year down to fifteen years!
Great Keen's narrowed it down! No more air time for him.......
I have a brother...he has been predicting the doom for the past 30 years, every now and again he gets it right...as in 2008/2009.....but every other year he is wrong....it must be an abnormal gene thing....the rest of the family just get on with life....
there were plenty of forecasters out there advising caution...way before Keen...however they were conservative in their wisdom....good wholesome advice for the unwary...
Keen was writing a book, and looking forward to the 'conference and talking circuit; to bolster his income....hence the 'way out in your face' statements to gain him free media attention....to support his endeavour
if you want to worship someone, or seek out a mentor, make sure that mentor has achieved the credentials, backing and performance that you seek for yourself...
otherwise its like worshipping a false god
I suspect some of his followers suffer the 'tall poppy' problem behind the scenes. Keen is exploiting that scenario, syndrome....posing as a Robin Hood type character.....
Buffett would tell you to look in the rear vision, to glean insight into the future....plenty of evidence to support that theory, especially in relation to property
some need a property mentor, someone with the experience and proof to back up his claims, and be holding that asset......there are plenty of successful property investors out there, with substantial holdings behind them...
Keen has nothing....he sold his PPOR when he and his partner split....that same prop has probably gone up another 100k since he opted out..
there were plenty of forecasters out there advising caution...way before Keen...however they were conservative in their wisdom....good wholesome advice for the unwary...
Keen was writing a book, and looking forward to the 'conference and talking circuit; to bolster his income....hence the 'way out in your face' statements to gain him free media attention....to support his endeavour
if you want to worship someone, or seek out a mentor, make sure that mentor has achieved the credentials, backing and performance that you seek for yourself...
otherwise its like worshipping a false god
I suspect some of his followers suffer the 'tall poppy' problem behind the scenes. Keen is exploiting that scenario, syndrome....posing as a Robin Hood type character.....
Buffett would tell you to look in the rear vision, to glean insight into the future....plenty of evidence to support that theory, especially in relation to property
some need a property mentor, someone with the experience and proof to back up his claims, and be holding that asset......there are plenty of successful property investors out there, with substantial holdings behind them...
Keen has nothing....he sold his PPOR when he and his partner split....that same prop has probably gone up another 100k since he opted out..
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Not sure the RBA has that option, we've already seen the banks move away from their targets due to their cost of obtaining international credit. Sure if they didn't need to compete internationally for funds(ie more local deposits) then there would be no need to stray too far from the RBA targets. But since local debt far outstrips required deposits they have no choice but to purchase funds from international markets to fund local debt, in which case RBA target rates have no relevance.
I think it's fair to say that as local debt increases and local deposits do not increase in proportion the RBA's influence on interest rates is reduced. So it stands to reason that if we were to have a catastrophic price crash the RBA will be powerless to do anything about it. They must be aware of this as their latest rate increase seems to have followed the banks rather than lead.
At least that's how I understand it..............though I could be barking up the wrong tree
cheers
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His media attention helped convince me at the time to take an offer on a property with no help from "my" agent, far below what it was worth just a month earlier. It has since sold again for a 100K more and now is on the market yet again for a listed price far beyond that. With all those figures and charts Keen couldn't put together what those low interest rates could do.
Lessons learnt there.
Movin' on, I can't imagine buying more property now and facing potential falls in price if any of the predictions "now" decide to come true. Lots of talk about but it's only talk.....
macca, interest rates in other countries are below us. I realize its not that simple but as Beej pointed out makes sense to me that we shouldn't have too much of a funding supply. Japan has trillions locked up in their postal system returning like 0.5%
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MR. In a collapsing property market, people do not buy even if interest rates are lowered. Have a look at ALL other countries as examples.
kincella said:
Then again we might not have a collapse because Kincella's brother is a barometer for the global economy
traps for players...he has done more harm than good....I guess you were swayed with the media focus....anyway, proof how one can lose money in any market, if you take the wrong turn, or listen to the wrong people...
like buying high, selling low....you are eventually wiped out...
unless of course one takes it as a lesson learned....
in that market....I would have been buying ...not selling....plenty of time in the future to sell when the market is right...
the absolute bargains are not there everyday
I had my eye on a couple of bargains...prices were down 80k to the rest of the market...screamed they were panick sellers....but then I got tied up in another matter, took my eye off the ball for a moment...then they were gone
100k is too much to lose.....I would never consider losing 10k let alone 100k
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
but good luck with any other investments
like buying high, selling low....you are eventually wiped out...
unless of course one takes it as a lesson learned....
in that market....I would have been buying ...not selling....plenty of time in the future to sell when the market is right...
the absolute bargains are not there everyday
I had my eye on a couple of bargains...prices were down 80k to the rest of the market...screamed they were panick sellers....but then I got tied up in another matter, took my eye off the ball for a moment...then they were gone
100k is too much to lose.....I would never consider losing 10k let alone 100k
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
but good luck with any other investments
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Kincella, how did Keen cause harm. He simply highlighted to people the gross indebtness of this nation. It is up to the individual to make informed decisions.
KRUDD caused more harm with the doubling of the FHVG.
The RBA caused harm by reducing IR's to low and now having to raise them back to normal.
If property is to fall does that mean that all RE agents caused harm by spruiking the benefits of RE as an investment vehicle.
While I do not agree with all of Keens statements, he certainly has made me aware that RE does not make the world go round but debt does.
Cheers
KRUDD caused more harm with the doubling of the FHVG.
The RBA caused harm by reducing IR's to low and now having to raise them back to normal.
If property is to fall does that mean that all RE agents caused harm by spruiking the benefits of RE as an investment vehicle.
While I do not agree with all of Keens statements, he certainly has made me aware that RE does not make the world go round but debt does.
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Seen the situations in other countries but not happening here.... yet, I've found!
Yes, lessons learned, not learnt!
Kincella, is property high now?
Looking forward to Robot's response to UF's questions?
Robots thanks mate...
attitude is more important...re my brother and people like him..
some of you focus on debt....completly ignoring the other side of the equation....some of the links I posted here past week show on average in Aus our debt equates to 17% of our assets....meaning the other side of the argument is 83% net assets....or equity....
you focus on the wrong side of the argument.....I focus on growing my wealth, ie assets and equity....not on my debt....which in my case started off years ago with the deposit I put down...20-30% asset and 70% debt against an asset....( I repeated this several times adding to the portfolio)
over time the debt has reduced in my case to around 20% and the assets have increased from the original 100% to 400%
the debt is easily managed on an annual basis.....the underlying assets just keep performing as they have done for the past 50-100 years......
of course I would never dream of paying 500k's or more for a property with 400k debt.....all mine were below 300ks....
I may have to pay 500k's in the future....but it would be with substantial equity and a loan of 200k or less.....my portfolio value would be reflecting similar values for houses at that time...
my time frame is around 30 years....so I dont care if there is a hiccup in the short term, or now and again....the long term is my goal....then I will pass most of it onto my children, and family as required.....
it is a well proven strategy.....with more than sufficient data and records to prove same for the past 50 or more years...out there on the net for all to access.
cheers
ps you should be more concerned with govt debt, being imposed on all of us now, to be repaid in taxes in the future, versus the home buyer debt market
attitude is more important...re my brother and people like him..
some of you focus on debt....completly ignoring the other side of the equation....some of the links I posted here past week show on average in Aus our debt equates to 17% of our assets....meaning the other side of the argument is 83% net assets....or equity....
you focus on the wrong side of the argument.....I focus on growing my wealth, ie assets and equity....not on my debt....which in my case started off years ago with the deposit I put down...20-30% asset and 70% debt against an asset....( I repeated this several times adding to the portfolio)
over time the debt has reduced in my case to around 20% and the assets have increased from the original 100% to 400%
the debt is easily managed on an annual basis.....the underlying assets just keep performing as they have done for the past 50-100 years......
of course I would never dream of paying 500k's or more for a property with 400k debt.....all mine were below 300ks....
I may have to pay 500k's in the future....but it would be with substantial equity and a loan of 200k or less.....my portfolio value would be reflecting similar values for houses at that time...
my time frame is around 30 years....so I dont care if there is a hiccup in the short term, or now and again....the long term is my goal....then I will pass most of it onto my children, and family as required.....
it is a well proven strategy.....with more than sufficient data and records to prove same for the past 50 or more years...out there on the net for all to access.
cheers
ps you should be more concerned with govt debt, being imposed on all of us now, to be repaid in taxes in the future, versus the home buyer debt market
No, Keen did a lot more than just "highlight indebtedness". He was swanning all over the mainstream media in mid/late 2008 - newspapers, TV (60 minutes, 7:30 report, Lateline), telling Australian's to sell their houses now before values fell by 40% in the next year or two. It was grossly irresponsible, and undermined confidence in the housing market for no good reason, effecting many ordinary people directly.
If he had stuck to writing books/papers and perhaps the odd blog here and there, then good on him, but his media-whoring did a lot of damage. He *may* even have been directly responsible for the government decision to introduce his hated FHBG boost......
By the way, does everyone know that Prof Keen starts his walk from Canberra to Mt Kosciusko today??? The one where because of the bet he lost he has to wear a T-shirt that says "I was hopelessly wrong on house prices, ask me how!"
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From linked article that Kincella supplied
Nothing to worry about because we are different to the rest of the world
Nothing to be concerned about, surely with a little effort we can get it to 200%.
Again nothing to see here. Just stay focused on the other side.
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http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/ for the facts and figures.
Sort of adds a bit of credence to robots character IMO !
Sort of adds a bit of credence to robots character IMO !
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How's your latest purchase going - any details yet? When are you due to settle?
I notice someone else is fond of graphs after the event also
Just checking out Robots local socialising venue, the REIV, who for some reason have a rose coloured view of the benefits of NG?
Sounds like private investors are not playing that important role of buying and renting out affordable accommodation, for they then somewhat contradict themslve by saying there is a shortage of homes for both owner–occupiers and renters? The NG system has failed by their own admission.
So NG firstly plays a 'critical role' in providing homes, then they say there are not enough homes? NG failed again....
This alone will ensure that the gov will put some sort of controls on NG - it's bleeding them dry!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/beware-its-the-negativegearer-right-next-door-20100403-rkzv.html
