The future of Australian property prices

[CanOz]

PPOR is different; I consider a house a home and then feelings, personal conform etc matter most
And if I really find a place i like why would I ever think of selling....so who cares about capital gain
but I am not 20 anymore and have set my priorities past $ so..
All the best in your searches

Yeah, I get that. However I don't want to buy in an area that experiencing the top of the market either...we plan on staying there permanently but still...

So brissy and sunshine Coast are not too toppy yet right?

 

[sptrawler]

Because it is unsustainable. The debt just keeps rising, bring forward future demand and productivity.

How the govnuts try thinking outside the square and we become a nation of innovators, embracing new business and technologies which can in future pay for the housing.

If housing is the only sector that is providing, how do people pay for the houses if they don't have jobs.

It is just to easy for the govnuts to float the boat with housing while the rest of the economy sinks.

What is their plan B?

IMO at the moment, there isn't a plan B.

We aren't competitive, we have a small market place and as a country we spend heaps more than we make.

You tell me what you would invest in? that is going to make money.

Other than fast food and welfare.lol

 

[qldfrog]

IMO at the moment, there isn't a plan B.

We aren't competitive, we have a small market place and as a country we spend heaps more than we make.

You tell me what you would invest in? that is going to make money.

Other than fast food and welfare.lol

if only we could lol
fast food yes
health stocks (old, sick on junk food, but last thing people stop paying, well usually "taxpayers" stop paying)
any security/crime related stock (prison, home alarm)
lawyers
debt recovery agency (I am heavily exposed CLH)
gambling
and basic food but aldi may be better bet..oops can not be done on the asx
crossing finger for my settlement in a fortnight to be done and over, no more residential IP for me

 

[sptrawler]

if only we could lol
fast food yes
health stocks (old, sick on junk food, but last thing people stop paying, well usually "taxpayers" stop paying)
any security/crime related stock (prison, home alarm)
lawyers
debt recovery agency (I am heavily exposed CLH)
gambling
and basic food but aldi may be better bet..oops can not be done on the asx
crossing finger for my settlement in a fortnight to be done and over, no more residential IP for me

Investment properties during a major downturn, don't add up.IMO
Delinquent tenants, become an issue, also more IP come on the market.
We may be wrong frog, but I'm with you.

 

[Mrmagoo]

You guys are nuts.

Economic down turn = no immigrants = massive vacancies in Melbourne and Sydney. Means plummeting rents and plummeting prices.

 

[Mrmagoo]

Sydboy, nothing to see or hear in that interview. It is all sunshine and lollipops, as a great man once said.

Was out on the weekend, attended an auction in Elwood, Victoria. 2 bedroom apartment, 103m2, sold for just under $800K, sounds fair, what could go wrong. Well that seems to be the consensus in the crowd. Same apartment would rent for
approx $530 pw, or approx 3.4% gross returns. Not bad given what you will get with a term deposit in the banks. Property is still showing better yields than other investments and bricks and mortar are safe. lol

I personally think property market will go 10-15% in Melbourne and Sydney before we see a correction of any sorts.

This bear prefers to smell the roses while they are in bloom.

2 bedrooms in elwood 800k ? you call that fair ? hilarious delusion.

 

[Nortorious]

You guys are nuts.

Economic down turn = no immigrants = massive vacancies in Melbourne and Sydney. Means plummeting rents and plummeting prices.

Migrants the only group pushing the demand pedal? I probably don't agree with that but I could be wrong and it certainly wouldn't be the first time...or last.

 

[Mrmagoo]

Migrants the only group pushing the demand pedal? I probably don't agree with that but I could be wrong and it certainly wouldn't be the first time...or last.

imo they 100% are because all of those falling apart piece of crap middle to inner city suburbs have their rentals filled with immigrants. Take that away and then there is not the same demand.

 

[Smurf1976]

Migrants the only group pushing the demand pedal? I probably don't agree with that but I could be wrong and it certainly wouldn't be the first time...or last.

It's the old "markets are made at the margin" situation.

Take a few % of the demand away, from anything, and the price collapses. Witness the well known situation with oil in recent times - supply has only increased a few % but demand increased by a smaller amount = price crash.

Housing isn't consumable in the sense that oil is, but there's a limit to how many empty houses landlords would be willing (or able) to hold onto without selling.

 

[Bintang]

It's the old "markets are made at the margin" situation.

So Smurf, what's going on down in Hobart? - see the SQM research report below.
http://www.sqmresearch.com.au

Looks like pretty good rent increases down there over the last 12 months.

View attachment SQM Rents.tiff

 

[Mrmagoo]

So Smurf, what's going on down in Hobart? - see the SQM research report below.
http://www.sqmresearch.com.au

Looks like pretty good rent increases down there over the last 12 months.

View attachment 61976

Sigh* that is such a ridiculous argument I can't be bothered answering. If anyone else has the energy to deal with this for me, feel free.

 

[Bintang]

Sigh* that is such a ridiculous argument I can't be bothered answering. If anyone else has the energy to deal with this for me, feel free.

It's not an argument about anything. Just an observation that Hobart appears to be different to the trend elswhere (especially Units) - that is if the data is correct.

If all you can do is belittle don't bother posting anything at all.

 

[Smurf1976]

So Smurf, what's going on down in Hobart?

I suspect it's the economy.

Looking at unemployment, most of the past 30+ years Tasmania has underperformed the other states. But looking at it right now, the unemployment rate in Tas is lower than in SA, the same as Qld and only 0.2% higher than NSW and Vic (based on ABS data for February 2015).

The Tas economy isn't doing that well, there's no denying that, but there's not much of a gap between Tas and the other states at least in terms of unemployment at the moment. That plus we've got a bit of a boom, at least it's a boom by local standards, happening in commercial construction in Hobart with a number of projects either underway or about to start.

 

[Mrmagoo]

It's not an argument about anything. Just an observation that Hobart appears to be different to the trend elswhere (especially Units) - that is if the data is correct.

If all you can do is belittle don't bother posting anything at all.

You're just trying to derail the discussion with nonsense. Tasmania is not even connected to the mainland.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ARMADALE AND HOW WILL IT AFFECT INNER CITY PRICES ??? OH WOW LOOK AT ME I CAN POST RIDICULOUSNESS TOO !!!!

 

[Smurf1976]

You're just trying to derail the discussion with nonsense. Tasmania is not even connected to the mainland.

It's part of Australia and all Australian citizens are free to move between the Australian states as they see fit. If someone living in Sydney finds a reason why they want to live in Hobart, Darwin or wherever then there's nothing to stop them moving there. Just as huge numbers of people have over the years permanently left Tas in order to find employment in other states.

If the economy in NSW (for example) collapses and unemployment goes to 20% whilst there is no such collapse in the other states, then you can be pretty sure that plenty of people now living in NSW will move somewhere else in order to find employment. Hence we'll never likely see 20% unemployment in one state and 2% in another, enough people will move to at least partly balance it out. Same concept with every state, Tas included.

So far as housing is concerned, I expect that the substantial difference in pricing between Sydney versus Hobart would be luring at least a few people to move down here. Work a few years in a well paid job in Sydney, at which point you've got either a deposit for a house 2 hours commute from the Sydney CBD or you could buy outright, or at least with a relatively small mortgage, in Hobart 15 minutes from the CBD. Some will find that idea attractive despite the lifestyle and climate differences. The hard part, of course, is finding a job down here.

As for the connection bit, well there's the ferry to Vic, direct flights to Qld, NSW and Vic and connecting flights via Melbourne or Sydney to SA, WA and NT on a daily basis so it's not exactly difficult to get on or off this island.

 

[waterbottle]

So far as housing is concerned, I expect that the substantial difference in pricing between Sydney versus Hobart would be luring at least a few people to move down here. Work a few years in a well paid job in Sydney, at which point you've got either a deposit for a house 2 hours commute from the Sydney CBD or you could buy outright, or at least with a relatively small mortgage, in Hobart 15 minutes from the CBD. Some will find that idea attractive despite the lifestyle and climate differences. The hard part, of course, is finding a job down here.

I was actually considering doing this within the next 2 years but as you say, it is difficult to find a similarly paid job. The jobs that I would be working in do exist, but the pay is probably 10-20% less than that offered in NSW (public service jobs).
I haven't done the calculations to determine if the cost of living:income ratio would be lower in Tas though.

 

[Bintang]

It's part of Australia

I was actually considering doing this within the next 2 years …….

You're just trying to derail the discussion with nonsense. Tasmania is not even connected to the mainland.

SQM obviously thinks that Tasmania is ‘connected’ enough to warrant including Hobart in its weekly research reports. And because the data point for Hobart looked a bit unusual I raised a point of discussion with a question to Smurf, who I happen to know is living in Hobart and because I thought his perspective on the subject might be useful. (By the way Smurf, thanks for your response – as usual informative and constructive).
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Mrmagoo, it is your kind of behavior, which derails discussion and helps to discourage others from contributing to this forum.

If I had realized how fragile your sensibilities are I suppose I could have sent Smurf a PM, which I have done on other occasions on other subjects but then other forum readers would miss out on the discussion.

I am fairly sure that when other forum readers compare your response to my post with the responses of Smurf and Waterbottle they are likely to form a very different conclusion than yours about who is trying to derail the discussion.

Are you by any chance a regular poster on the Australian Property Forum? If you aren’t you might enjoy it more because your type of behaviour is rampant over there.

 

[Mrmagoo]

No. I dont normally post on that forum. The truth is i was in some medication which had side effects and I actually read different words to what you and smurf had written. For starters i thought he had quoted me when he hadnt and secondly i thought he was telling me to move to Tasmania because the property market there is so great among other things, a common way to troll people in these discussions. The medication also produced some unexplained rage which i cannot explain as it shouldnt really do that. Having read what was actually written i have to apologise to you and smurf. However you should also understand part of the reason i read words which werent there is because incidents of abuse on this thread towards me became so common i just assumed that was the case when it wasnt. So i do apologise for that as i have clearly done the wrong thing. (Posting from my phone hard to type).

 

[Smurf1976]

No worries.

For the record, I'm not suggesting that anyone should, or shouldn't move to Tas or any other particular state. I am just observing that there is a significant difference in the price of comparable housing between (say) Sydney versus Hobart or Adelaide and that this would logically lead to at least some people considering a move for financial or other reasons. That is particularly so in the case of those who wish to purchase property but who cannot afford to buy in the major cities but who have sufficient cash to make a large deposit, or even buy outright, in Tas, SA or a regional town / city in the other states.

Same concept with anything. Someone who cannot afford to by a new Mercedes would logically consider buying a used Commodore or Camry as a sensible alternative since that will still lead to them owning a reasonable car, albeit not a "prestige" one, with which to get from A to B.

 

[sptrawler]

No worries.

For the record, I'm not suggesting that anyone should, or shouldn't move to Tas or any other particular state. I am just observing that there is a significant difference in the price of comparable housing between (say) Sydney versus Hobart or Adelaide and that this would logically lead to at least some people considering a move for financial or other reasons. That is particularly so in the case of those who wish to purchase property but who cannot afford to buy in the major cities but who have sufficient cash to make a large deposit, or even buy outright, in Tas, SA or a regional town / city in the other states.

Same concept with anything. Someone who cannot afford to by a new Mercedes would logically consider buying a used Commodore or Camry as a sensible alternative since that will still lead to them owning a reasonable car, albeit not a "prestige" one, with which to get from A to B.

Interestingly my wife made the suggestion, about moving to Hobart, when the grandkids get older.
I thought, yes, what a great idea, also we can enjoy the amenity my taxes have built.